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October 17, 2008

Ravens: Ignore the stats

Since The Baltimore Sun already published my prediction for Sunday's game against the Dolphins (Ravens, 20-9) in today's print editions, consider this just another of my cautionary posts. I've been such a negative guy lately, I don't like me either, but Mike Preston pointed out something in his column that jumped right off the page and slapped me right across my ample visage.

Mike feels the Ravens should throw caution to the wind and pass the ball a lot against the Dolphins because their pass defense ranks 29th in the NFL. That sounds entirely logical until you remember the recent (very recent) history of this Ravens team when facing such a compelling statistical weakness in an opponent.

Weren't the Colts ranked 32th in the NFL against the run when the Ravens arrived in Indy the other day? Weren't we also talking about how bad the Colts were against the run last year and the near before?

The Ravens need to go into Miami with a balanced attack, or they'll walk right into a trap. The Dolphins don't defend the pass well, but they'll defend it a lot better if that's all they have to worry about. They aren't the Colts, who only needed to keep the Ravens under wraps long enough to score 17 points in the first quarter and throw all that game planning went right out the window.

It's OK to try and attack your opponent's weakness, but if the Ravens are a better team than the Dolphins -- and God help them if they aren't -- then they are better off playing their own game than trying to find a particular crack in the Dolphins' defense.

Radio Free Schmuck: If you can stand to hear me talk about current events instead of sports for a few hours, tune in to WBAL (1090 AM) at noon for The Week in Review with me and Clarence Mitchell IV. If you're out of radio range, you can go to WBAL.com and click on the "Listen Live" icon.

Posted by Peter Schmuck at 10:08 AM | | Comments (7)
Categories: Just football
        

Comments

Prior to last week, the Ravens were ranked #4 in the league in rushing after pounding Cinci and Cleveland and going for 120-140 against Pitt and Tenn. At the risk of sounding like a pessimist, the fact that we got our high rank because we played two of the bottom 5 run defenses must be taken into account. When you play teams with no scheme and no heart, you can run right over them. But these past three weeks, we got sent back down to earth by 3 teams who had both.

So...balance is key. We don't have an offense that can pound a good defense into submission via the run. We don't have an offense that can breeze past a good defense via the air. However, if we keep any defense on their toes and make them read and react to us and thus be a second or two later on every read, we can get the yards we need to put up points.

Instead of focusing so much on our opponents, why don't we first get a solid definition of ourselves? Yeah, we do need to be aware of what the opposing D does best and worst, it doesn't matter if we can't do anything at all. And maybe its because this box is so small, but I kinda feel like my comment is longer than your entry, lol.


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Pete's reply: I don't think there's any limit on how much you can post. Go to town.

The key is to control the game. . . and that is best done with a running game and solid defense. As long as Miami's trick plays don't catch the banged up secondary off-guard, the Ravens should get revenge for last years loss

I do agree with you. But since when has the Ravens had a 'balanced attack'? I can't help and remember that the only real success the offense has ever had was on the ground...ever. Yeah, sure, they get a couple fluke/lucky plays from throwing, but they don't have a passing game. Especially with Flacco and his protection he will have to watch fall back in his face on a consitent and fast pace. He will never have any time to waith for a receiver to get open, and thats just hoping he could hit them when the would get open. Sorry, not a Flacco bandwagon person...he doesn't deserve it yet. Mike Preston is dreaming about throwing caution to the wind...cause when we do, it goes to the other team. Hell, it does anyway, rather we are 'cautious' or not. You are right about the so-called Rankings...according to them, we should have had at least 200 yards rushing in Indy...did that happen? No. So why the hell should we expect anything different with the Dolphins pass protection? Prediction Alert!!! Look for the Dolphins pass defense ranking to go up! You heard it here....

Your right....all those stats are meaningless....the colts were last against the run when they totally shut down larry johnson in the playoffs....the Ravens had the #1 ranked pass defense until they played the colts.....did they look like the #1 pass defense against the colts.?..statistics are decieving and usually irrelevant......styles, matchups and understanding were you have the advantages and were your opponent has the advantages is what's important.....and accepting that reality and making adjustments accordingly...not being like Billick and saying we know Dwight Freeneys' run circles around John Ogden the last 4 times weve played them ....but in this playoff game things are going to be different...thats delusion......or Harbaugh saying I know I have rookie quarterback who I'm going to handcuff with the play calling.....but I still think its a good decision to allow pittsburgh to kick the ball into scoring territiory and gamble that my rookie quarterback will be able to get the ball out of the opponents scoring territory as opposed to putting my #1 great for the last eight years defense on the field against them in our scoring postion.The stat I believe in is #2 vs the run last year and last vs big pass plays last year.....obviously Ozzie didnt believe in that stat when he picked Flacco at #18.....so now you have soft corners again on a hulking interior defense which is a weakend deformity.....not an airtight defense that could have protected a team with limited offensive capeabilites....and been able to compete with a more seasoned quarterback.....not an overwhelmed shell shocked quarterback who cant make the adjustmet from division 2 delaware to the speedy NFL.

Peter,

Do you seriously think the Ravens are intending on focusing on the pass? With Flacco?

They are going to attempt to run the ball, run the ball, and run the ball some more. When the dolphins move up and start cheatin, we'll start throwing the 10 yard curls and slant routes. And if the Ravens attempt to do more with Joe, we'll lose.

Hopefully, the day will come when Joe can do more but I wouldn't bet that it will be this week.

Pete... totally unrelated to your post, but just thinking...

Any idea if the O's are talking to the Padres about their desire to trade Jake Peavy?

I know Peavy would prefer NL and prefer a winner, so it's far-fetched that he would like it... but Peavy is one of the few guys in the league that I think is worth every last freaking cent you can throw at him. He would entirely change this team's character on the mound and would fill a huge hole. Between Peavy/Guthrie we'd have 1-2 filled easily.

And yes, I know, we're "rebuilding" and that means aiming young and cheap mostly and waiting... but if we're considering throwing cash at a Jon Garland or AJ Burnett... why not throw something to a guy that's actually worth it? Peavy is a monster. He's worth Garland and Burnett combined... and then some.

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Pete's reply: You're a day ahead of me. I'm going to lead Sunday's column with Peavy, though not in a good way. There's just way too much standing in the way of that, most notably his complete no-trade clause. O's would love to have him, of course.

Shame.

Thanks for the info though. Look forward to Sunday's column... and hopefully scooping you on the story when the trade goes through too. ha.

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Peter Schmuck wants you to know that, contrary to popular belief, he is more than just a bon vivant, raconteur and collector of blousy flowered shirts. He is a semi-respected journalist who has covered virtually every sport -- except luge, of course – and tackled issues that transcend the mere games people play. If that isn’t enough to qualify him to provide witty, wide-ranging commentary on the sports world ... and the rest of the world, for that matter ... he is an avid reader of history, biography and the classics, as well as a charming blowhard who pops off on both sports and politics on WBAL Radio. That means you can expect a little of everything in The Schmuck Stops Here, but the major focus will be keeping you up to the minute on Baltimore’s major sports teams and themes, whether it’s throwing up the Orioles lineup the minute it’s announced or updating you on the latest sprained ankle in Owings Mills. Oh, and by the way, that’s Mr. Schmuck to you.

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