Ravens and rankings (Part Deux)
If you've been reading the comments, Jim pointed out a while ago that there is a ranking system at footballoutsiders.com that places the Ravens No. 4 in the NFL.
The Football Outsiders take football statistics to the more esoteric level, much like all the new-era number crunching in baseball in the Bill James Era. Their DVOA rankings (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) breaks down each team play by play and assigns values based on the league average adjusted for the strength of the opposition.
I'm still trying to get my arms around this, but it apparently attempts to determine how much better each team is than the theoretical average NFL team. The Ravens jumped from No. 7 to No. 4 after Sunday's victory over the Raiders and are listed as 23.3 percent better than average. The Washington Redskins held steady at No. 5 at 20.5 percent.
Here's where I'm confused. The Tennessee Titans spanked the Indianapolis Colts this week, who crushed the Ravens in Week 5, but held firm at No. 3 because (and I'm quoting the site) "the opponent adjustments don't see this as a victory over the kind of Colts juggernaut we've known in the past." And yet the Ravens move up three slots after beating a Raiders team that couldn't be much worse if they had Matt Millen as their general manager.
The top two teams are the Eagles and Giants, who switched places this week but remain clearly ahead of everyone else.
I'm not endorsing this method, because I'm still trying to understand it, but it gives the Ravens a lot more credit than anyone else does. That's either great news or proof that you can prove anything you want with an imagination, a laptop computer and a lot of time on your hands.
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Comments
I like the footballoutsiders website.
The Indy game wrecked our DVOA ratings, we went from #3 to #9 or something.
Note that the Ravens get credit for "outplaying" the Titans in week 5.
Tennessee has been consistently excellent this whole time, and against Indy they performed at the same level of statistical excellence. The Ravens have been excellent in many games, but were terrible against Indy, and every game that they play well helps diminish the awfulness of that Indy game.
Posted by: math_geek | October 29, 2008 1:28 PM
This website brings to mind the quote popularly attributed to Mark Twain: "There are three kinds of liars: Liars, damned liars and statisticians." All the number crunching in the world does not change the deciding factor of which team goes to the playoffs - the W-L record. After the playoff teams are determined the ones that score more points than their opponents advance. Unlike college football, the league champion is decided on the field, the way it should be. Any system that does not reflect the real world situation is a flawed system.
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Pete's reply: Actually the quote is from Benjamin Disraeli, the British prime minister who was a contempory of Twain, and the quote is: "There are three kinds of lies -- lies, damned lies and statistics."
Posted by: Rusty | October 29, 2008 5:07 PM
DVOA gives much better insights than most of the traditional stats. It's highly situational -- It underplays McGahee getting 8 yards on 3rd and 10, and gives more credit for McClain getting 2 yards on 3rd and 1.
There is a high correlation with a team's DVOA now and wins in the future (e.g., it takes away the fluke plays that are highly random)
Historically it has shown that the Ravens have had a top 3 defense and the one year that the offense was actually above mediocre --we had the 13-3 record.
Some underappreciated DVOA stats on the Ravens. LeRon McClain has a much higher DVOA than McGahee. Rice has one of the best sets of stats for backs receiving. Our 3rd headed monster is far, far superior to Jamal Lewis of old! For the first time in 10 years, I have confidence that the Ravens can convert 3rd and short.
While we are bullish on Joe Flacco he still has a negative DVOA -- if he can elevate his game to a positive DVOA (as well as the whole offense which still has a negative DVOA) we have a serious shot at the playoffs.
Posted by: Merlin | October 30, 2008 6:38 AM
I'm just glad when the Ravens' record won't qualify them for the playoffs, the NFL will use this ranking system to award them a postseason berth. That's why were talking about all these rankings, right? Because they actually have a bearing on real football? Please tell me we're not just wasting our time with rankings that, in the end, don't mean a damn thing.
Posted by: Bernie | October 31, 2008 6:19 AM