I hear Joe the Plumber's available. He's a real stopper! I know he could shore up the leaky rotation and keep the O's from taking another plunge in the standings. It sure beats another season in the crapper.

Sorry Pete...I'll understand if you take my blog card away from me after that.

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: You've pretty much been on double secret probation from the start, Chris.

Now I am not in favor of tossing money away on marginal players but why is Andy acting like the O's are the pirates all of a sudden? Team payroll dropped from 93 million in 2007 to 67 million this year. The payroll in 1998 was higher then this last year. Even with the current economy and attendence there should be plenty of room to take on additional payroll.

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: You would thinki, but it's still important to spend wisely, because you're going to have to do more next offseason, too.

I understand that but do the O's have any money tied up in players after 2009? A ton of cash is coming off the books after '09 Mora, Walker, Baez, Huff, Hernandez, and Roberts that should leave a lot of money to spend next year.

Combine that with average expenditures in the draft (down from 2007 draft) and not spending any money outside the US (the only team in the AL East not to give a latin player a 6 figure bonus this year). The O's should be either really flush with cash or someone is pocketing money.

To be honest I was disapointed when after giving Bradford away they only managed to ink one of the big three left unsigned (the got Bundy but whiffed on Brady and Landers).

...............................................................................................
Pete's reply: It's possible they are socking away a lot of money, but it's also possible they aren't. The sagging attendance, the heavy discounting of tickets and so-so MASN ratings has to take a toll, and remember that the payroll doesn't include pension and benefits, so $67 million is really about $74 million. My gut feeling is that they could afford to spend $110 million on payroll and be okay, but it still comes down to who they spend it on. They used to spend money like water and what did it get them after 1997?

i like the macphail process and the whole rebuilding, but macphail gotta realize after last season that we gotta buy at least 1 or 2 veteran arms for our rotation this year. maybe olson, penn, waters, and the bunch will step up a little buts lets get some arms. texiera is not as necessary.
1-guthrie
2-burnett
3-mussina
4-waters
5-olson/penn/arietta/etc.

...............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Would love to have Mussina for one or two years as a stop-gap, but he is only going to play next year if he has a chance to win. That's a tough sell here.

Assuming we hold on to Roberts ...

One starter & one slugger (and a little ensuing fire and chemistry) is all we really need to get out of the doldrums.

Might as well not go on the cheap.

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Hate to go negative on you, but one slugger is only going to fill in the gap for the offense you got this year that you can't depend on next year. Love to have somebody like Teixeira, but the O's need two legit starting pitchers to even hope for a .500 season.

i think all that stuff about a j burnett is all lip service. peter i think you got some bad information about contacting jake peavy via ham radio. i looked him up in a ham database. he is not listed. i wish he was i would have loved to talk to him

Jeff,

In spite of the raised tickets prices and MASC contract, the revenue needed to pay 2009 free agency prices isn't there. Your line of thinking is what got the country in economic trouble - spending money that you don't have just puts you in a deeper hole. Andy is practicing the Warren Buffet plan, that is to invest wisely in stock that will pay off in the future. Heck, if the Cubs fans can wait 100 yrs, I can give the O's another couple of years.

I'd like to see us try and get Lowe. We could use a guy who keeps the ball on the ground and let the fielders do the work instead of see the ball fly through the air. What a revelation that would be.

You could also argue that Andy doesn't want to show his cards just yet. I would be shocked if Andy adds a couple of 5th starters, career minor league pitchers or looks to the rule 5 to fill out the rotation for 09. Andy knows how bad the staff was and how the BP will be plagued again if they enter the majority of the games in the 4th inning.

Lowe has made no secret that he wants to come back east and the fact he can pitch a lot of innings and has been on WS team and played a huge part in the Dodgers run this year, makes him an interesting option. I don't think in my wildest dreams that the O's will go after 2 big ticket FA pitchers, but I can't see them not rolling the dice on 1 front line SP and a Paul Byrd type. I think the O's can live with 2 youngsters at the 4th and 5th slots in the rotation, but we can't do another start Jeremy and pray for 4 straight days of rain again.

All I know is that if they don't sign Teixeira attendance will go even lower next year. It's about time someone in the Warehouse figures out the fans are getting tired of paying to watch the Payton's, Walkers, etc.

I personally get tired of on the conservative talk and that the O's are not going to spend big money for anyone just more cast-offs that have used up their good years elsewhere. Is Andy going to let some of the O's prime players walk when it gets close to free agency because he's afraid to spend any of PA's money?

"Andy is practicing the Warren Buffet plan, that is to invest wisely in stock that will pay off in the future. Heck, if the Cubs fans can wait 100 yrs, I can give the O's another couple of years."

NO, Warren Buffet would be spending money in Japan and Latin America where the O's are very much not spending money. Buffet would also be spending money on the draft, which IMHO the O's are not spending enough, if you are going to bother to draft a Brady or a Landers SIGN THEM.

As for not being able to afford it? Here is an excerpt from an Oct 2007 CNNMoney report:

"Baseball will finish this year with just over $6 billion in revenue, according to Bob DuPuy, Major League Baseball's president and chief operating officer.

To put that into context, that puts baseball right on the heels of the more than $6 billion in revenue reported by the National Football League in 2006.

Yes, baseball has a lot more games from which to generate sales than the NFL, but that has always been the case. Simply put, baseball has done a much better job in the past few years of boosting its revenue beyond traditional sources, i.e. ticket sales and television broadcasting.

Baseball's sales have increased 50 percent from 2004 and have doubled since 2000. The NFL's sales grew at roughly half of baseball's pace during the same time period."

hmm sales have doubled since 2000 yet the O's payroll is under 1997 levels...

I am not saying spend foolishly, I am saying that the money should be there to spend wisely. Andy doesn't have poverty to use as an excuse for inaction.

On the bright side, with only one player under contract in 2010 the O's are in fine shape to be spending less then the Marlins.

Peter, do have some info about the O's signing Paul Byrd?
He would make sense, a cheap innings-muncher. He's Steve Trachsel on medically prescribed steroids.

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: He's a lot better than Trachsel. I think the O's will be interested, but nobody is talking to anybody yet because you're not allowed to yet.

Waiver Wire pickups and Rule 5 Drafts are not going to lead the Os to the promised land. I realize that simply throwing money around won't do that either, and it isn't going to turn around in one offseason. But if the Os come into Spring Training having added nothing but Paul Byrd and other castoffs, 2009 is going to be just as long as 2008.

Long time Orioles fan here from Canada. Did a project in grade school on Earl Weaver...became a fan...the rest is hstory. The off season should be divided in 2 parts. If they think they can trade Roberts then buying a couple of tier 2 starters makes sense. If they will not trade or can sign Roberst to an extension then you can proceed to go hard after Texiera and Burnett. This way you can continue the rebuild..but it's now more of a re-tooling. Still trade Huff and Hernandez and get a few more lower level pitchers. If you can trade Roberts , then continue with the total rebuild with sights set on 2011 as a real first contending year.

...............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I think they may have to go after a couple of decent players to convince Roberts to stay, which is something of a Catch-22 since they need to know his status to decide which way to go. Is it getting cold up there yet?

I agree that Lowe would be a great idea.

Pete, I have been very patient with Dem O's But I cant wait 2 or 3 more years for a winner. Cant they spend a little money!! Here is my idea. Sign A.J. Burnett, Ryan Dempster, and someone like John Garland or Derrick Lowe. This will hold the rotation together until all the kids are ready to come up. Also get Eckstein at SS for a few years, and give Tex whatever he wants and plant him at 1st forever.Hows this sound for the 2009 O's

1 Roberts 2B
2 Markakis RF
3 Huff DH
4 Texeria1B
5 Mora 3B
6 Scott LF
7 Weiters C ( Yeah thats right )
8 Jones CF
9 Eckstein SS

1 Guthrie
2 Burnett
3 Dempster
4 Garland/Lowe
5 Liz/Waters/Tillman/Bergesan/

I think we can get above 500 with those changes. Then when all the kids are ready we will be stacked!!!

I'd like MacPhail to go out strong right out of the gate and sign an impact player, whatever the cost. Another solid signing, too. I say this because if the Orioles are to get Roberts aboard for a long term contract, they should first give him evdence of their commitment to build a winning team.

Otherwise, if I'm Roberts, I'd be saying, "No, I'm not convinced you're really willing to do what it takes to put a contending team on the field and I've made it very clear that I want to play for a winner."

Obviously, the O's can't do everything in one off season, but it's time to put up or shut up. The status quo isn't acceptable for B-Rob and it shouldn't be for MacPhail, either. "Rebuilding" is fine, but as a means, NOT an end!

News Flash: There's been a Dr. Jekyll siting at Byrd Stadium!

Quit making excuses for the O's, Pete.

The O's went to the playoffs twice in a row when they were really spending money in the 1990s.

They aren't going to load up on free agent pitchers, because we do have some good young pitchers. So, it's time to break the bank and sign Tex and a shortstop.

They've been saving money for a decade now.

Satyr3206 -

So if we add Tex, we shell out a boatload of money to become the AL East version of the Texas Rangers. Yeah, that'll sit well with the fans.

Birdland Todd is correct. If we could sign Lowe or Loshe, and perhaps Byrd, that's a good start. Then maybe we hit on a rule 5, and at least we have the semblance of a starting rotation. It also gives the young arms in the minors time to develop correctly, and not receive their baptism under fire.

Why do all these folks think Tex is the cure all? Huff at first isn't a bad option! We add the arms through FA & another rule 5 pick, then we focus on trading for a young SS prospect.

Stay the course on the rebuilding. Do not sign Tex. Way too much money. And no you ain't gonna get a hometown discount. We need depth, not a couple of big signings that strip additional draft choices. Pitching and defense. Make the big impact FA signing after the 2009 season.

All you Einsteins calling for Tex, can he pitch? You think we are that close? Better take a look at the 2nd half of the season, and our pitching. Take a hard look!!!

Pitching, pitching, pitching. Forget about Teixeira, we're not going to get him away from the Angels, they can afford to make him a good offer and they have a playoff club already. I like the idea of going after Lowe, and take a swing at Burnett, though I doubt they'll get him.
Say goodbye to D.C., make a good offer to Roberts and give Markakis whatever it takes. We also need a S.S. from somewhere, maybe Nomar as a stop gap until the minors can provide?

I think Andy will extend Roberts, keep Huff, sign Tex, AJ, Byrd and Hank Blalock. Yes, Hank Blalock. He will be a relatively inexpensive pick-up and well worth it if healthy, which is a question mark, however he showed signs of getting back to good health during the last part of the season. Huff Tex and Blalock would make a very good 1B/3B/DH combination and be a steady if not potent middle of the order. I think Mora would see the handwriting on the wall and waive his no trade clause. This way you have a bolstered pitching staff and with the addition of Blalock the only starter over 30 would be Roberts.

The cure for the Orioles is a mixture of imagination and spending. Since our last word series victory, the Orioles have been uncreative and cheap--a poor business approach indeed.

Imagination: Move Mora back to shortstop, play Huff at third, make Scott the DH, and sign Bedard (whose market value has steeply declined) to a one-year redemption contract. Also, insert J.Johnson into the rotation

Spend: Sign the pitching stud (CC) and the hitting stud (Texeria), overpay if necessary. These guys are durable and in their prime--it's an investment with an astounding upside.

Dream Lineup/Rotation

Lineup

1. Roberts 2b
2. Mora ss
3. Markakis rf
4. Texeria 1b
5. Huff 3b
6..Weiters c
7.Scott DH
8.Montanez
9. Jones

Pitching Rotation

1.CC Sabastian
2.Gutherie
3,Bedard (that's right)
4,J.Johnson
5.Penn/Liz/Olson

.

I wouldn't expect to hear much out of the Warehouse at this time of year anyway. Aside from that I hope we dont do anything all winter, except hopefully just shed more payroll. We need to hunker down and take our losses and keep the focus on 2012, that means three more years of top five draft picks too. The bar is set too high in this division to solve anything with another round of free agent spending we need to build through the draft like Tampa did, sure attendance will bottom out but I say build it right or don't build it.

Pete, why no columns on the ongoing playoff series? Is it the budget? Or was I born in a bad baseball town that lacks interest in baseball outside of the Orioles?

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Just wasn't assigned to the playoffs.

WNST claims Comcast just gave Angelos a check for 124 million. We've got money to spend but why spend it on a bunch of guys that will help us break the 70 win barrier? Build an 85 win team thru the minors and trades then spend with abandon. Only spend now to keep Markakis. After another year of losing it's only going to get tougher to do.

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I have no idea where that number comes from. The O's do get money from Comcast and they have to pay the Nats $26 million of it. I don't know how flush they are, though I've always been skeptical of their claims, since they aren't willing to show anybody the books.

I still say the best bet for the O's improving next yr is the young pitchers improving. Waters, Olson and Burris had moments this past yr and then sometimes they had their brains stomped out. This spring they will come to spring training knowing what it's like to pitch in the ML. One of them should step up..given the odds. If the hitting stays somewhat consistant and the pitchers know they don't need to hold the other team to 1 or zero runs to win I say they pitch better this yr. and that helps the O's more in 2009 and beyond than some piece of left over trash. (Trachel, etc...)

I still say the best bet for the O's improving next yr is the young pitchers improving. Waters, Olson and Burris had moments this past yr and then sometimes they had their brains stomped out. This spring they will come to spring training knowing what it's like to pitch in the ML. One of them should step up..given the odds. If the hitting stays somewhat consistant and the pitchers know they don't need to hold the other team to 1 or zero runs to win I say they pitch better this yr. and that helps the O's more in 2009 and beyond than some piece of left over trash. (Trachel, etc...)

Even if MacPhail isn't intent on signing Teixeira he should still try to improve the team. He's not playing with confederate money.

Angelos gave him the thumb's up, get a shortstop, get another stable vet to pair with Guthrie and get this team in the wild card chase.

Pete,

Big difference between spending wisely and continuing to rip off the O"s fanbase! Fact is, we are in the most competitive, most expensive division in baseball! They don't build Waffle Houses on Park Avenue! Bill Veeck said it best 25 years ago, "it isn't the price of the best players that is killing baseball, it's the price being paid for mediocracy"! The O's have vastly overpaid and overextended the lengths of contracts to Gibbons, Hernandez, Baez, Walker, Belle just to name a few! But if the O's goes on the cheap again, the Sun and you Pete need to be leading the BOYCOTT on buying tickets! Actions speak louder than words and right now, were heading more towards the Pirates than we are Boston or NY! We are no longer 4 of 5, we are the bottom, need I remind O's leadership 28 1/2 games out of first place and 26 1/2 games out of the playoffs for an 11th consecutive season!

boy this wasn't a depressing post! thank the good Lord the titans are 5-0 or else I'd be in sports-hibernation

Pete,

My short term memory must be better than most, If I recall correctly we signed Tejada, Palmero and Hernandez as what were thought to be top of the line free agents. So now we know that at least 2 and probably all 3 were juicing, we didn't fair horribly as we got 5 guys for Tejada. I know it's against Andy's principals but we need at least two inning eater 3 or 4 type starters, a #1 would be great but this is the Orioles. As much as I like Tex, and his ties to the area, NOT going to happen. I see him going to BOS/NY for real big money but Giambi or the Sox 3rd baseman may be a cheaper option. Finally, and most importantly, they must decide before 1 Dec if Roberts stays or goes AND they must sign Nick longterm to make sure he will stay!

Here's my question for you: Can the Orioles actually LOSE money in the MASN deal? I'm not sure how it is structured, but don't we sort of own the network but pay them a fixed sum? With the Nats getting so incredibly few TV viewers, it seems like we could come out behind on the arrangement if that fixed sum is greater than revenue generated by Nats TV. If so, the notion of the Orioles being flush with cash to spend on free agents would be incorrect, especially when combined with seriously sagging attendance in Camden Yards.

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I guess that's possible, but the O's get a lot of money from Comcast before they pay the Nats their $26 million, and they also get central fund money for national tv, licensing and MLB.com. I think they're doing fine, but who really knows?

The Rays have had just 10 losing seasons before becoming AL East champs. The O's are already pass that. The Rays did it right losing big while they collected a nice stock of youngster by drafting at or near the top of the amateur draft. The O's after letting Gillick, Davey Johnson, Mussina and Raffy (the first time) all walk have done very little right before last winter. Now it is time to step up to the plate and made a couple of major signings such as Tex and a decent starter to prove that they too are playing to win. While they may not pull a Rays of last to first, they can convince the fans and the baseball nation that they are back on the move to becoming a winning franchise. This excuse that, well we're rebuilding could go on for years, mean while watching fans leave just as fast.

Now I love B-Rob. He's a lead off stud, and will be for at least five more years, but I have to say trade him. Let McPhail trade him and do what he does; ie, pillage some poor unsuspecting team for all of their great young talent to fill the gap. We can fill his spot in the Adam Jones. He's just as good if not better than Roberts. I recall an 10 or 15 pitch at bat he had against the Yankees where he belted a grand slam that proved he is here to stay in this league. We could even afford to deal a couple other players like Huff, Mora or Hernandez in an effort to sign Mark Teixiera. He will be the center piece of any organization he goes to plus he's a homer and no town gets behind a homer like Baltimore. Then we let market shake out sign a pitcher or two. I realize pitching is important but we're not going to find the answer by dumping a ton of cash on the old used up arms that will be available in free agency this year it needs to be developed. Trust me I go to Fredrick and Bowie it's coming, just trust in Mcphail he's done this before the pitching will come.

isnt furcal a free agent?

The Orioles also get money from the luxury tax imposed on other teams.

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: They might this year, but I don't know whether it would be a significant amount.

Furcal is a FA, but I don't see the Dodgers letting him go, but if they do let him go, he would be a very explosive player that could man the SS position for the next 5 years, but given the lack of SS that FAs this year, his price could be crazy.

Pete, the guy I like at SS is Orlando Cabrerra (D Cab and F Cab were bombs so 3rd time is the charm with O Cab), as the guy made a seamless transition from Montreal to Boston to help them win the WS and was a vital cog for both the Angels and the Chi Sox. I know he is older than the FO probably would like from their SS, but if you could get him for 3yrs, you would have a SS with power and he can bat lead off because the more I think about it (I am a huge Roberts fan), the more I think it's time to trade Brian because he is the only and I mean only piece we have that will net something similar or greater than the Bedard trade plus I don't think B Rob wants to be Oriole, but that's just my take.

McPhail's number 1 priority is cutting payroll not winning. He'll do some bottom feeding to get warm bodies in here but no breakthrough players.

Pete, you keep saying TWO new starting pitchers, but i say Teixeira and a Paul Byrd only would be a wonderful winter haul.
I think we have enough young pitcing candidates for now in Liz/Waters/Penn/Bergesen/Bass/Patton etc.
Then in 2010 we have Tilman, Arrietta, and Matusz, too.
Basically, ink Tex and wait for the cavalry. Comments?

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Oh, I would love to have him, but I'm not sold that the O's pitching problems will entirely solve themselves. They have to plug a couple holes in the rotation for the younger pitchers to develop properly.

TX O's Fan,

Lohse signed an extension with the Cardinals a while back. So that's not an option.

I believe in building through the Farm System but I also see some disturbing signs from the fans. Teixeira wouldn't be a savior and he can't pitch. But he could be a prime building block for 2010 and beyond when the young arms are ready. The O's don't have any IF signed past 2009. They might want to address that at some point. The Orioles haven't signed a top FA since Tejeda. They also have a ton of payroll coming off the books after the 09 season. They also haven't addressed 1B in the draft or trades. And I think Angelos wants him in an Orioles uniform. At some point the O's have to spend some money. I think right now is the best opportunity. Next years FA class isn't very good. And I know if the fans don't see a commitment from the Orioles financially to improve the team there are going to be some pissed off customers in and around Baltimore. I don't buy the argument the Orioles don't have the money. They have MASN money and Angelos is a Billionaire.

If they don't sign him that's fine with me because I'm a Farm System advocate. But there are many other's that won't look at it that way and that will hurt attendance and the Organization.

Pete, could you please list who might be top five free agent pitchers on the orioles radar. Suggestions: Paul Bird, Brad Penny (sleeper?), Braden Looper

...............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I can't narrow the list or expand the list to five. I think Byrd is a solid possibility and Burnett is desireable but a longshot. Throw everybody else in a hat.

I suppose signing Byrd makes some sense as we're not exactly overloaded with starters. If he's half-decent, then why wouldn't some other team make sign him and I think it means something that Bosox haven't used him much in the post-season. Even Timlin got the call before him!
I guess the O's are so desperate for starters that they'll overpay for mediocre guys like Byrd. Personally, I'd rather see younger guys out there but is there 4 guys other than Guthrie that have an upside? We may struggle just to find 2 or 3 so in the meantime,we really don't have much choice but to scour the bargain bin/waiver wire. Let's hope we don't end up with a couple of Drabeks or Victors!!

I am prepared to sink or swim with our kid arms. If they come through, we are fine. If they dont, Burnett and Byrd wont help us. I would much rather get Tex and a young major league ready SS like Brigna or Wood and finish last and get another top 5 draft pick before our young arms come up. The only way I sign a FA pitcher is if the only alternative is rushing the kids. I am willing to suffer through another year like last year and go to Bowie again to see decent baseball played by our best players. I do NOTHING to improve next year. .500 next year is a pipedream. Signing three effective top free agent pitchers is a crackpipe dream. Build the lineup and wait for the pitching. All of last year's Bowie kids stay in Norfolk until Sept at least. Imagine what it will be like to actually have players at Norfolk with their best ball ahead of them instead of behind them? Major League players in waiting, not AAAA players in limbo. With Tex and a SS, the only screaming need you have for the next 6 years is a 3B . . . and all the pitching to stay healthy. We currently have a dozen pitchers who project to the major leagues. If 4 come through we are competitive. If 6 come through we can dominate.

Even a second-tier pitcher like Lowe or Garland costs you 4 years-$40 million based on recent signings. Plus we lose a draft choice.Why do that, even if you're lucky enough to finish .500? For a rebuilding team, I think that winning 66 games and landing premium draft choices like Wieters and Matusz is far preferable to winning 82 games with mediocre veterans who will only decline- and then drafting 15th the following year.

While the O's have been almost as bad as the Rays during the past 10 years, they have been nowhere near as good in drafting and developing stud talent. You'd need to take Wieters and multiply by 5 years of talent, development (and luck) to have a nucleus like the Rays. That's no guarantee, and it will take awhile, so if the O's want to be a relevant MLB team in the next 3-5 years and stem the vicious cycle of poor play, declining attendance/viewership and frustrated fan base, they need to be aggressive in the free agent market.

Been an O's fan since 83 and am a season ticket holder. We have to do something to energize the fan base. The answer is Teixera I think. A lineup of:
Roberts -2b
Jones -CF (lets use his speed)
Teixera - 1b
Huff - 3b
Markakis - RF
Scott - DH
Mora - SS (He can stop gap here)
Weiters - C
Millar - LF (He can hold his own out there for a year or so)
SS - The big question, get Eckstein if he's available for the short term

Guthrie
Lowe (go get him, he's worth it)
Olsen
Burris
Byrd (A good buy)

Sherrill
Johnson

I'd buy season tickets again for that team. They'd still finish fifth but at least be entertaining. What do you think Pete

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I'd go for that, but they probably won't spend enough to buy Tex, Lowe and Byrd. Not sure Burres would be in my rotation, either.