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Will Andy shift gears?

Macphail.jpgOrioles president Andy MacPhail had hoped to have enough young pitching to focus on position talent in the next couple of free agent markets, but the loss of Adam Loewen as a pitcher and the late-season collapse of the major league staff has changed the landscape going into this offseason.

MacPhail (left) has acknowledged the lack of pitching depth and appears open to signing a free agent pitcher this winter. That should come as no surprise, since he has said all along that his actions will always be governed by conditions "on the ground." The question is whether that means he'll go all out and spend some real money on a front-rotation guy (A.J. Burnett?) or look for one or two solid stopgaps to flesh out the rotation while the Orioles wait on some of their young talent.

It's pretty obvious the team has to do something proactive. It's too much to expect the light to go on for enough of the young pitchers who have failed to break out this season or, for that matter, for injured pitchers Troy Patton, Matt Albers and (maybe) Jim Johnson to come back and fill out the rotation.

Though MacPhail has indicated he has the go-ahead to make a play for a quality pitcher, I'm still skeptical about both the club's willingness to bid what it would take to get one of the big guys and the likelihood one of those pitchers will choose Baltimore over a more competitive franchise. I'm guessing the O's end up with a couple of Paul Byrd-type pitchers to keep next year from looking like the past three weeks.

I think it was John Lennon who wrote "Whatever gets you through the night...it's all right."

If you think that's true, who would you go after and why? The discussion is now open.

AP photo

Comments

Paul Byrd would be an excellent addition to the control starved Orioles staff. Whatever demeaning things the experts who post here care to level versus bird most of the O's pitchers walk more batters in one game thaq Byrd does ina month.

What major league staff?


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Pete's reply: Unfortunately, a fair point.

Bradon Looper? Kyle Lohse? Bartolo Colon? All seem like Bargain bin guys to me.

How about D.Lowe? Or maybe Pedro?

Well I'd most likely bet on the O's trading for a picher.

Has this organization ever tried that "new" management practice that's all the rage and being used by all of the successful franchises.... It's called multi-tasking. For the dunderheads in the FO, it means they can go after both pitching and position players. Contrary to their preconceived notions it's not illegal to do so.

I can't wait to see Josh Fogg in an Orioles uniform.

How about Mussina? I know he's a turncoat and all that but, He mentors younger pitchers as evidenced by the entire staff on the yankees using that set position that he does.

How about Mussina? I know he's a turncoat and all that but, He mentors younger pitchers as evidenced by the entire staff on the yankees using that set position that he does.

How about Mussina? I know he's a turncoat and all that but, He mentors younger pitchers as evidenced by the entire staff on the yankees using that set position that he does.

Hey Pete,
Can't believe that you called A.J. Burnett a front of the rotation guy? Come on now... The guy has good stuff but can't stay healthy for a full year. I think that we have enough of those types of pitchers. If you are going to spend that type of money, better make it for CC.

Byrd's got the right name for this team. What will "The Bird" do, I wonder? Will he still sign autographs as "The Bird?"

Pete, I still think the O's will make a play for AJ (sign the petition, oh wait, that's for someone else) plus a veteran to do what Trax was supposed to do. I mentioned Jamie Moyer before (yes, he is old, but he is solid) and would be able to give advice to the young soft tossers we have similar to how Benson helped Bedard (not soft tossers, but you get what I am saying).

Paul Byrd, Lowe or someone like that would make the difference. I said this before, but in my honest opinion if the O's had 2 Gil Meche type starters to go along with Guthrie this year, we would be looking at an above .500 year easily.

Pete, what's your take on Millar wanting to come back? I think Kevin would be great in a platoon role at 1B especially if the focus is on finding a SS and two SPs. You know you are getting a great club house guy who also is vastly underrated as a 1B and if not pressed into playing just about every game, has pop and the ability to get on base.

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Pete's reply: I'd love to see Kevin back next year, but they'll have to make it clear that he'll have to step aside at times for player development.

Peter , please again without sounding negative, the orioles idea of middle of the road pitchers is something like Steve trachsel to just eat up innings we will be having this same conversation next year. Look people just don't want to admit just how bad we are pitching wise. We practically need a whole new staff for next year and they just don't grow on tree's. They are a organization right now stuck between a rock and a hard place. it doesn't make sense for them to sign one of the big gun's now because the rest of the team isn't there yet. But this mediocre signing of guy's just to say we have a pitching staff has grown way to old , with the results being the 12Th straight year of losing.

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Pete's reply: Now Bob, stop being so negative. It's only 11.

Going after A.J. Burnett makes more sense with each passing day of free passes. He's only walked 78 in 193 innings this year, which on this staff would be laser-like control. Plus, it sounds like he actually (gasp!) wants to play here. Since there is no way Tex is coming here, Andy Mac might as well overspend on somebody. I just hope "A.J." doesn't end up standing for "Another Journeyman."

AJ Burnett with his local ties.

Derek Lowe with his durability, strike throwing, innings eating and historical winning record.

Mike Mussina would be the perfect opening day starter for this team at 2 years 22 million. He will pitch 150 plus innings each of the next 2 years. Retire an Oriole, Go in the Hall of Fame as an Oriole with an outside chance of winning his 300 career game as an Oriole.

Although not a number one, AJ Burnett would make nice #2 guy for the staff.

I think Sidney Ponson is going to come off the Yankees payroll and will be available for the taking.

I think the more import question is not so much what MacPhail wants to do, but whether Angelos is willing to spend the money that a top-notch pitcher is going to merit.

I think Sidney Ponson is going to come off the Yankees payroll and will be available for the taking.

I think the more import question is not so much what MacPhail wants to do, but whether Angelos is willing to spend the money that a top-notch pitcher is going to merit.

If the O's are going to shift gears and make a play for Burnett that's OK, but they should not waste their time on Steve Trachsel types. I know what we're going through now is painful, but is it any more painful than experiencing Trachsel? It is very possible that Olsen or Liz could make a leap in 2009. Look at Mike Pelfrey of the Mets - awful in 2007, a key pitcher in 2008. The one pitcher who is not in the elite free agent class (only because of his age) I would make an exception for is Mike Mussina - otherwise, let's stick to the plan and look for Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman, Brad Bergeson, and Olsen or Liz to be the core of the rotation in 2010.

I am not interested in Free Agent pitching. We signed 42 million worth just a short time ago and that was a disaster. The R.O.I. for F/A pitchers has been historically bad. We need to take our lumps for at least another year until the well meant arms on the farm are ready. There are no quick fixes in our situation, T-Bay was putrid for years as they patiently built their talent pool, it is past time for us to take the same approach.

first of all...AJ Burnett is no front end guy. i think that two paul byrds, a d-cab, and guthrie would do fine for the team, then throw patton in there and with that lineup and bullpen...thats a good solid team to build upon, because when those paul byrds are no longer effective, thats when the guys from AA will be ready

How about Mussina? He is a real pitcher and innings eater and he could pitch for 3 more seasons.His professionalism would be great with the young pitchers the O's have coming up. Carl Pavano might be worth a look if you could sign him to a one year incentive loaded contract.

O's do not need a big name for the top of the rotation, or even a couple of stop gap free agents. The O's need about ten stop gaps. If Patton or Albers can pitch in 2009, that is one or two, but not enough

Why not Ben Sheets? He may be in the 4 year 12-14 million range but he is a #1 pitcher. That would make Gutherie an effective #2. The money could be made up in not signing Millar (2-3 million), Payton (2 million), offering Cabera arbitration (4-6 million) and the trading of Bradford (3 million). Put Huff at first, bring up Reinhold (league minimum) and have him be the fourth OF and DH.

Pete:
It was John Lennon and... HAPPY BIRTHDAY!


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Pete's reply: Thanks very much.

How about getting a guy who can pitch past the 6th inning regularly? DC was supposed to be that guy, but once again he didn't deliver. I don't think we need expensive, big stars, just consistency to keep us in the game.

Most GMs believe that you need (at least) three starters who consistently give the team a chance to win each time out. [It's no coincidence that the Cubs, Red Sox, and Angels each have three or more. The Orioles have one in Jeremy Guthrie.] The O's have seen everybody at AAA except Hayden Penn so there doesn't appear to be much help coming from there. Bowie offers a glimmer of hope, but the starters there have to be able to demonstrate they can also be effective at Norfolk. The problem facing Andy McPhail is that established "star" pitchers like Burnett, Sheets and Sabbathia want 5+ year deals while the Paul Byrd type pitchers want three year deals (or two with a performance based option). After watching the current staff disintegrate yet again, Andy can't possibly believe that signing only one new quality pitcher will allow the O's to be competitive. He needs to sign at least a Burnett, another quality pitcher, and perhaps take a chance on a guy like Carl Pavano who (hopefully) has his health issues behind him and who might be available for one year (with heavy incentives) plus an option. In this way, perhaps Andy can bridge the time until the young guys in the lower minors are ready.

Also, none of this should be at the expense of going after Mark Texeira or finding a shortstop who can hit AND field.

Whatever happened to all the revenue that was coming from the club's new cash cow, aka MASN? It's been three years, hasn't it? Time to open the tap.

Pete i meant next year would be the 12 straight losing season. Don't want to jump the gun , but things are very dismal around here.

I can't see any free agent coming into this train wreck, irregardless of the money. If you're going to trade Brian Roberts during the off season, then you better make sure you get a front line, established starter. Until proven otherwise, the Orioles are incapable of developing young pitchers. Time and time again, they are clueless, helpless, cannot throw strikes, have no other pitches besides a fastball, their mechanics are pitiful and none of them can field their positions. They have been taught nothing other than how to embarrass themselves. If you're going to get prospects in a trade, then they should be position players.

Pete -

If we can sign AJ at a decent price (very doubtful) say 4 years and 10-12 per year, then I say OK. Otherwise I would focus on Mussina & take your pick: Kyle Loshe, Josh Fogg or Paul Byrd. Better yet, scrap the AJ offer, and sign Loshe (not sure he's a FA this off season), Mussina & Byrd. That way we buy some reasonable veteran arms for the short term until the kids in the minors are ready.


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Pete's reply: I'm pretty sure Mussina plays again for the Yankees or not at all.

Happy Birthday, Pete! I would like to see the O's sign AJ Burnett and maybe another upper tier starter. Maybe after reading your other post, they should bring Wieters up now, and take Ramon out of the picture.

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Pete's reply: I'll tell you what. After Ramon failed to get close enough to the plate to make good on that great throw by Montanez the other night, I think I'm coming over to that opinion.

We would be foolish to not go after Mussina. Palmeiro left then came back. Why not Moose (only he won't have any 'roids)

Why on earth would we want to sign A.J. Burnett? I'm assuming that we're talking about the same A.J. Burnett that will be 32 next season and who has only twice in his career pitched at least 200 innings. To be fair to Burnett, barring a late season injury, he is likely to exceed that number again in 2008. To be fair to the Orioles checkbook, Burnett also has a 4.47 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. The Orioles don't have the depth to be competitive next season, so sign a few guys that are castoffs and hope they can rekindle the magic with the O's. If not, hopefully Albers, Patton, the guys at Bowie and various other arms from within can fill the rotation. No sense committing long-term dollars to an aging, mediocre pitcher like Burnett.

Rv. Your suggestions about the '09 is flawed on a number of fronts. First, forget about Daniel Cabrera-he should not be a part of any future Orioles rotation-are you one of those eternal optimists that think he's suddenly going to 'get it' after 5 years of futility?
One Paul Byrd is enough-but only if he accepts a incentive-laden deal. If not he can peddle his junk elswhere.
We need to forget about trolling the bargain bin and secondary free-agent market for pitching. Look how well that went last time. $42 mill for Baez, Walker & Bradford and we go rid of the best one in Bradford(who will the PTBNL be-Erik Hinkse?).
AJ Burnett will be Sir Sid in 2 years and Byrd is a right-handed version of Brian Burres. We need to bite the bullet and hope the current genuis McPhail is accurate on the haul of acquired hurlers-ie Patton,,Tillman, Sarfrate that ca hopefully make up our starting rotation in '09.
I have to laugh at all the scenarios painted. Like a few retreads are suddenly going to make us competitive again. We are in dire straits right now and '08 has actually set thte 'rebuild' back a couple of years. We have numerous holes beyond the obvious lack of any semblance of a MLB starting rotation so let's be realtistic and take off the rose-coloured glasses. A couple of 'Paul Byrds' isn't going to create a stampede for pst-season play-off tickets.

Derek Lowe is not a Paul Byrd type. He's a front line starter who will command front line money. Same with Burnett despite his injuries. The Orioles need to do what the Braves did 20 years ago. Take their most major league ready starters and give them the ball every five days and make them pitch 7 innings every game come hell or high water. Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery weren't all that special in the beginning.

Oh, and please get Cabrera as far away from here as possible for whatever someone will give us for him. He has never struck out enough people to justify his walks, his mechanics have been crap for his entire career, and he doesn't seem like he ever understands anything said to him. I'm through with him. I'm tired of pitchers who refuse to throw strikes. And while we're at it, get Hernandez out of here too. You think he'd be smart enough to realize that with these wild pitchers, just put the target in the middle of the plate. It's the one place they won't throw it.

I'd like to see Burnett signed. He always seems to beat us. I like him here more than most.

I doubt we'd get Sabbathia or Sheets. Byrd doesn't do it for me. We missed out on him by a half a mil last FA go around.

No team seems to have an abundance of young pitching talent.

I wonder if Huff were traded to the Angels if we might be able to get (Nick Adenhart or Jered Weaver) and Brandon Wood to fill two holes especially if the lose Tex.


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Pete's reply: I don't see the Angels trading for Huff, and certainly would not give that level of value.

No FA's that have options will come here. No chance.

We will probably bring Trachsel back..

Will A -- Exactly one young Yankee pitcher mimics Mike Mussina's stretch--Ian Kennedy. And he is laboring to prove he can anything other than emulate Moose's stretch.

For all those excited about the prospect of landing AJ Burnett, please bear in mind that this season is the first in a while that he has not spent significant time on the disabled list. As fine as Burnett has pitched this year, signing him would be a huge gamble on his health. Not worth it.

If the Birds were to sign Paul Byrd, they would not only gain the master of the retro over-the-head double pump, but would then have two of the better fielding pitchers in baseball--Byrd and Jeremy Guthrie.

Hey, sign Mike Mussina and maybe we can dominate teams with the 1-3 putouts, not exactly Dennis Cabrera's strength, no matter how many new gloves he tries.

Overpay for Burnett and Byrd if need be. I'm not sold on AJ (with a career record of about .500) and Byrd is definitely a stopgap, but has to be better than what we have now. Granted Bergeson, Tillman, et al look good in the minors, but we have seen what really good talented minor league pitcher's can look like in the majors. Just because someone is putting up great numbers in AA, does not make them a good major league pitcher. A lot of your posters sure are putting way too much hope on these guys. We need to draft 90 percent pitchers in next years draft and hope 10 percent or less make it to the majors someday. I really don't see the franchise getting back to the playoffs until at least 2012 (probably later) contrary to many on here who are saying 2010. I sure hope I am wrong though. Thanks Pete for you updates on the O's. (by the way Baseball America is an awesome magazine, didn't know you worked for them, been reading it for years)

Because of the pitching, this team is still far, far away even from having a winning season. Even though it continues the pain in the short term, Andy has to continue the serious rebuilding he started last off season. I love Brian Roberts, but by the time the O's start winning, he'll be getting old. So get everything you can for him now. Aubrey Huff has been wonderful this year filling that desperately needed #4 spot, but if you can get some top notch young prospects for him, you just have to do it. Even Luke Scott, who is roughly Robert's age, needs to be dangled out there to see what we can get for him. This team, as currently constructed, isn't going anywhere, so keep rebuilding.

Im all for going after a type B free agent and getting another via trade. but these guys are gonna need to be the type of arms that can go out and give us 190 innings, like a D Cab minus the walks. Paul Byrd and his vintage wind up would be a good fit and maybe a Javier Vazquez type of pitcher. There is more then a few teams looking to cut payroll this offseason. So I think a few trades are very likely. We could get some talent for B Rob but that would just be another hole to fill. There are 5 starters and only 1 irreplaceable leadoff man. O's in 09 !!!!

I think you can tell a lot from numbers. Whether you go to the minors to look or if you decide to bring in experienced players, I think the O's should not bring anyone to the majors with an ERA above 4.5 or a batting average of below .260. You can also apply this rule to current players. As the team improves, then tighten the numbers up even more.

What about Erik Bedard? Burnett, Guthrie and Bedard would make this team competetive until Arrietta, Tillman, and others are ready

John Lennon also said "How can you go forward unless you know which way you're facing?"

Of the struggling Oriole starters, do any hold promise for next year's rotation. Often, starters have a rough first year or two. Olsen? Liz? Or would we have expected to see more flashes of future potential?

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Pete's reply: You can't write them off, but I'm not impressed so far.

d-cab give me a break! How much longer till he turns the corner? Must be a long WALKS! Its time to move some of these guys out and try something different, I thought Ramon Hernandez was brought here to work with our young pitchers. He won't even move left or right to block a pitch let alone make a trip to the mound.
Does Kevin Millar win something for all of his mammoth Rainbow shoots?
Addition by subtraction!

The Orioles need to focus on 2010; not 2009. Keep rotating some of the young pitchers in 2009 to see how/if another year of experience helps or not, and then go after a big time pitcher (or 2) for 2010.

Players for 2009:

Guthrie
Cabrera
Patton
Olson/Waters/Liz
Veteran Pitcher

Cormier
Johnson
Albers
Sherrill
Ray
Sarfate
Burress
Someone

Hernandez
Quiroz
Reimold
Roberts
Castro
Mora
Huff
Scott
Jones
Markakis
Montarez

Then, in 2010

Add Weiters to the roster and maybe upgrade at SS & 3B and work on improved starting pitching and you're set!

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Peter Schmuck wants you to know that, contrary to popular belief, he is more than just a bon vivant, raconteur and collector of blousy flowered shirts. He is a semi-respected journalist who has covered virtually every sport -- except luge, of course – and tackled issues that transcend the mere games people play. If that isn’t enough to qualify him to provide witty, wide-ranging commentary on the sports world ... and the rest of the world, for that matter ... he is an avid reader of history, biography and the classics, as well as a charming blowhard who pops off on both sports and politics on WBAL Radio. That means you can expect a little of everything in The Schmuck Stops Here, but the major focus will be keeping you up to the minute on Baltimore’s major sports teams and themes, whether it’s throwing up the Orioles lineup the minute it’s announced or updating you on the latest sprained ankle in Owings Mills. Oh, and by the way, that’s Mr. Schmuck to you.

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