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September 23, 2008

Is your blood type O's Positive?

It's time for one of those glass-half-full moments. The Orioles are looking like a solid bet to end up falling short of 70 victories, but that's not all bad. They appear destined to finish with the fifth-worst record in baseball -- cue the derisive applause -- which will position them for another prime pick in next year's draft.

The real good news: They've proven over the past two years that they know how to make the most of an early pick, as evidenced by the success of Matt Wieters during his first full professional season and the consensus around baseball that Brian Matusz was the most advanced pitcher in this year's draft.

Posted by Peter Schmuck at 11:23 AM | | Comments (18)
Categories: Just baseball
        

Comments

The even better, related news: this is the same formula used by the Rays to build their team. Hopefully it won't take us as long.

I think they'll have good picks next year, not just 1st rounders either. Most of the team comes from the later rounds anyways. I think the O's made significant progress this year with player development and in finding an offense, but there is a possibility that most of that offense will be gone to start next season.

If the pitching is stronger next year, I think a third place finish is possible with the current offense. Sure, everyone wants to win the division and all that, but the Yankess and Blue Jays will fade next year hopefully, providing the O's better opportunities to win mid-season. If the right moves are made again this year at both the major and minor levels, the team has a good chance of making even better strides next year.

So, the next paragraph of the post should have listed the top ten players in the draft and whether the teams ahead in the draft will be willing to shell out the bucks to sign the top players or will someone of the quality of Wieters slide down to the Orioles who have shown in the last two drafts that they are willing to pay for quality.

Matusz was the most advanced pitcher but who was the pitcher with the most upside?

I know this is a hot stove post but it has been awfully chilly in birdland since the end of the last century and I can't wait to see how the Os have progressed in 2010. Tampa Bay after all took their entire existence to get to this stage of improvement. To expect the Os to get there is three years requires a rather large quantity of Kool-Aid.

Couldn't agree more. I've been in draft-pick mode for a month and a half. Of course, I haven't had tickets either.

The Rays' success should make this even more clear. Their approach for 10 years has been: if you can't win, suck. Suck bad. It's paying off now.

To think we could turn the proverbial corner in one season is a pipe dream. To see the prospects we have through trade and draft is motivating for where we are headed. Next stop, dump the headaches and dead wood from the roster and get Roberts and Markakis signed for what they are worth and keep moving ahead. A proud O's fan since seeing my first game (double header with Detroit) in the early 60s.

Yes, the glass is half full, but for the Orioles of late, there's been a fly in it. Despite the abysmal play of late, I still don't have that total-breakdown-wheels-off-the-cart-sides-off-the-cart-bottom-off-the-cart implosion-feel of recent past end-of-year debacles we've experienced here in Charm City. On the upside, Bass pitched very well. Waters did okay in New York, he just hung two pitches he shouldn't have. Liz also pitched well in the pressure cooker which is New York, and that's all good. Wieters is on his way, and you know ol' Andy "I won't make a deal just to make a deal" MacPhail is bound to make some trades and sign some guys (AJ Burnett perhaps?) in the offseason. Will Brian Roberts be here this time next year? My guess is no, for the same reason Bedard and Tejada aren't here--yes, he's a great player, but we still finished dead last with him so we can't be much worse without him. Other rays of light--Bergensen and Company are on their way up and some of the guys we have in the rotation can take their rightful place in the bullpen as long-men and setup guys. Chris Ray will be back next year, dang, I'm already psyched for opening day! NEXT season will be the year we hit .500, and 2010, we make a run for the playoffs. That's my prediction, anyway...

I think a blood type of "O's Positive" is required for residence in Jimmyville.

But sure, I'll gladly take the 5th overall pick!

Next years draft seems light on on impact players though. The top pitcher Strasburg will be long gone and so will the 6' 3" SS Grant Green from USC who projects as another Tulo. Thats why continuing to gut the team and stay with youth while collecting a 1-3 top pick would be my first option, the worst thing we can continue to try and be is mediocre. That aside, whoever we get at five can only help this situation.

Your thought process is for losers... pure and simple. What does it say about an organization's season that it's high point is what pick they'll have in the draft..... and for the fans that applaud every loss to enhance their position. Pretty darned pathetic......

I feel with a good pitching staff and a little bit of an uprage on offense (no millar and no sucky hitting Short Stop) we will be a whole lot better. Not saying a contender, but maybe like the bluejays, only 7-10 games out.. not 25 or so

delusions...it is a sad perspective of the team, but it is one that must be had with this team. They aren't going to go sign all the big free agents every year like the Yankees have done in the past (and what has that gotten them, their best players are the ones they have developed).

In order to get the best talent possible, they have to draft and trade responsibly and hope for the best with each player. The O's played too much of the "draft one really good player and sign one decent player" for years and it produced a terrible minor league system and horrible major league ball club.

People need to realize that the draft isn't just about the #1 pick, but about all the picks. The NFL has 7 rounds and starting caliber talent can be found in each one for different positions. I'm not saying that the MLB draft is the same, but who's more likely to get drafted higher: a position player that can start every game or a relief pitcher? A starter that can log 200 quality innings or a light hitting shortstop?

Guys like Matusz and Weiters are going to be on the club before we know it, where guys like DCab and Bedard did and would have benefitted from being in the minors for a long period of time. Those are the types that aren't #1 picks, but 5s and 6s and so forth.

When you aren't going to win - what is the deal with 70 wins - take the 5th pick and continue to build for the future -at least we are getting an idea what the future looks like with Weiters and Matusz and others - this was a fun season to follow for the most part and will be even more enjoyable next year.

Not sure it's glass half full, more like quarter to third at best. But at least it's not empty. And in the Moral Victory department at least the Orioles got their #1 picks that last two years signed, unlike some other teams. I have always been in favor of MacPhail doing the organizational rebuild the proper way, which means you can't shortcut the process. Still, I hope the front office makes a concerted effort to get some help from the free agent pool this year to give the team and fans a little more reason for long term optimism.

Chuck Diesel -

Excellent points. The neglect of our farm system for many years has put this franchise where it deserves to be. And you are correct, All Star players can be found even in the upper end rounds of the draft. Mike Piazza comes to mind, and I believe Don Mattingly was also a low round pick. The key is scouting and putting in place a farm system that stresses development, along with sound teachers. When it comes to scouting you need to be able to see the tools and project development within 3-5 years. I certainly feel better about the scouting over the last few years. And Andy will make it a priority!

A higher draft pick is no substitute for good scouting and player development in the minors. Look at the Angels: 24 of their past 30 first round picks have had time in the major leagues, only seven of them were picked in the top ten overall.

The Angels have a farm system that correctly evaluates and develops talent for the major leagues. The Orioles have system that completely destroys the arms of pitchers, and rarely scout good position players.

If you want to cheer on the Orioles to lose and a get a better draft pick; go right ahead. The Orioles need to work on how to correctly nurture the talent they get before they should worry about getting the best talent there is.

5th worse? Before the season began, Vegas odds had the Orioles as *the* worst team in baseball -- dead last. So, they beat the odds.


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Pete's reply: Yes, they beat the Vegas over/under, which was 64 1/2 wins. I think the parade will be next Tuesday.

Oh, give me a break people. The O's losing the rest of the season is not a bad thing, though winning will hurt in the '09 draft. I am certian most of you believe I should stick to futball (soccer) and comment on the O's. Well, when I buy the O's, then you tell me what the real strategy is. Anyway, take the path as the Ray's did and win the World Series in 2012, I can wait, can you?


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Pete's reply: I think they are already on the path the Rays took, so I don't think it will take quite that long.

I would love to see a BISCOTTIPLEASEBUYTHEO'S.com website.

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About Peter Schmuck
Peter Schmuck wants you to know that, contrary to popular belief, he is more than just a bon vivant, raconteur and collector of blousy flowered shirts. He is a semi-respected journalist who has covered virtually every sport -- except luge, of course – and tackled issues that transcend the mere games people play. If that isn’t enough to qualify him to provide witty, wide-ranging commentary on the sports world ... and the rest of the world, for that matter ... he is an avid reader of history, biography and the classics, as well as a charming blowhard who pops off on both sports and politics on WBAL Radio. That means you can expect a little of everything in The Schmuck Stops Here, but the major focus will be keeping you up to the minute on Baltimore’s major sports teams and themes, whether it’s throwing up the Orioles lineup the minute it’s announced or updating you on the latest sprained ankle in Owings Mills. Oh, and by the way, that’s Mr. Schmuck to you.

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