Just goes to show that baseballprospectus.com's stat model is no good. The only reason to have a statistics model is to use it to predict real world events. If your model can't do that it's no good and should be trashed. Any conclusions drawn from their model other than that their model does not reflex reality is just BS.

Roch,

The adjusted standings is a popular thing with BP and some other big sabermetric sites. They 'adjust' everything.

Two notes, though: First, actual performance of course means more. In 05 we were 'adjusted' to be in first and still sucked later. And second, notice that even with their adjustments, we are no more than 1 or 2 games under 500 in most of their estimates. By most fans' expectations, that would still be better than expected... even if still in 5th.

The BP standings are based heavily on Runs Scored vs. Runs Allowed Analysis. The O's are in last place here largely because statistics say that you can "control" games that you win by multiple runs but you have very little control over 1 run games. This analysis simply explains how many games a team should win if it scores X runs and allows Y runs. The O's just happen to have a ridiculous number of 1 run wins this year. Seattle was in this exact situation last year which is why many prognosticators thought they couldn't make the playoffs this year (even with the addition of Erik Bedard.) Interestingly, as we all know, George Sherrill was on that Mariners club last year. Perhaps George Sherrill can defy the order of the mathematical universe.. I think it may have something to do with the brim of his cap.

Roch-

Great blog. Keep up the good work. Do you see Val Majewski having a future, or even a shot, with the O's? Once upon a time he seemed to be mentioned close behind Markakis in terms of potential. Also, what organization decision-maker was responsible for trading away Maine and Werth? Thanks.

Roch, I'll assume you're being ironic about the Phillie Phanatic -- an inexplicably adored mascot by many fans and reporters, and truly one of the most annoying creatures ever to inhabit the Milky Way.

Now that the orioles are uncertain about loewen , they may very well draft that lefthanded pitcher with the 4th pick. Selecting pitchers that high hasn't worked very well in the past for the orioles , but under andy it seems like he might want to keep stockpiling them.

Hey Roch,

Is Arrieta pitching for Frederick tonight?

Please not a pitcher! We need position players and we certainly should be able to get a solid one with the fourth pick. How about a shortstop?

Focus people. Yankees tonight at 7:05. Remember? Not to mention these next 13 games are critical:

3 @ Yankees
3 @ Rays
3 Yankees
4 Red Sox

I believe in Sabremetrics .... especially since I learned to measure melmOsity.

I believe in Sabremetrics .... especially since I learned to measure melmOsity.

When do you think they will promote Montanez? I have been following him for about 2 weeks now and he is ripping the ball (at least that is what the box score says).

Also why dont we call up Salaazar and option Luis? Oscar seems to be hitting well (.300) in AAA with some pop in his bat (7 hrs)- Moore on the other hand is hitting under .200...

A and AA affiliates are stacked with young pitchers. I mean just look at the stats!!!! If we can package 2 prospects and Roberts to get a real power hitter would you do it? I wish we could package Huff isntead of Roberts but I dont think there will be much interest in Huff.

Baseball sabermetrics are interesting....but extremely useless.

I've been reading a lot about sabermetrics and it states that statistically speaking you should never under any condition sacrifice bunt. This is because with a runner on first with 0 outs .15 more runs score on an average than a runner on second with 1 out.

Cool...but useless. Obviously, you sac bunt based purely on situations. Who's hot, who's cold, who is hitting, what pitcher is warming up, the pitcher's pitches, defensive capabilities, etc. etc. Statistics are just numbers. Baseball is the most situational of any game played on earth.

This goes for these 'standings' as well. Statistically we shouldn't be 3 over .500. Our top full-time hitter is hitting about .275. But guess what? We are over .500. And with the way we've been playing we may just remain there.

Better question is...does Luis Montanez POST on this blog? I would like to hear his opinion on some of these topics, short of getting him into any trouble with teammates or the FO of course.... in any case, NICE night Luis. Maybe when they finish weeding through others at Norfolk, he might get a chance there.

Watch out, some of the impetient ones here will be clamoring for Tillman to replace Trachsel & Reimold to come up to replace Payton.....

I'm all for drafting the best player available (it's worked pretty well for Oz) but shouldn't MacPhail be taking a look at SS. I've seen some highly rated players at the position and it's certainly one crop that isn't growing on the farm right now...

Those BP numbers basically say what we all already knew. The Orioles have been winning the games they "should" be winning.

We should have won series against the Royals and Nationals. Basically the thing that is sinking us according to BP is that rough roadtrip in La and Oakland.

We win the next couple of series against the Yankees and the Rays and we will see those numbers increase.

Thanks alot, Ken Levine, for putting that Oriole Bird line in the ' Cheers' episode.

Have you ever seen that episode of “Three’s Company” where there’s some sort of misunderstanding, ... or that one of “Gilligan’s Island” where they almost figure out a way to get off?

Roch, have you heard of whom the O's might be targeting in the draft? I have looked at some recent mock drafts and I'm seeing Brian Maturz LHP some consider the best in the draft, HS SS Tim Beckham, or 3B Pedro Alvarez....I think we should take the best available player as that seems to be the best method that works across the board in sports, especially for a rebuilding club that could use all the help they can get. But I can't help but hope we take a top rated position player as we are desperate need.

Even if the Orioles end the year in last place, I don't think those numbers are worth much. The statisticians kept insisting that Arizona should have had a losing record last year and yet they went all the way to the NLCS. That was another team that won a lot of one-run games, but so what? They're winning again this year, suggesting it wasn't a fluke.

I wouldn't be surprised if, after Roch gets caught up in posting responses, it turns out someone has already mentioned this, but I believe the Oriole Bird wasn't 'hatched' until Opening Day 1979, when the O's beat the White Sox 5-3 with substitute umpires. (It was also the O's 25th anniversary, and they beat the Chisox in the 1954 home opener as well.) I don't remember that Cheers episode, but 1975 would have been too early for the Bird - except for Jim Hartzell's bird on the front page of the Morning Sun!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the Oriole bird mascot existed in 1975. Didn't it "hatch" in 1979?

Two things...

First about dissing the Phillie Phanatic. I live outside of Philly and there was a lot of fans complaining that the Phanatic wasn't out more during their last rain delay. I'd still take Dempsey, though.

Also, glad to see Ironbirds moved up the game. I got their mini game plan (this is my first year), and I was a little disappointed about the late starts on Sunday. Would much rather there be a 1 o'clock start, but oh well.

Mark Teixeira in a Baltimore road jersey! Get onboard:
http://bringmarkhome.withthispetition.com

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think Sam Malone is a fictional character. It would have been impossible for him to have hit the Orioles mascot in 1975 ... or anytime in 1979 or later.

David asked:

"Do you see Val Majewski having a future, or even a shot, with the O's?"

Val Majewski is now with the Newark Bears of the independent Atlantic League. So is Keith Reed.

Baseball Prospectus, phooey. Their predictions are based on numbers that are based on a scenario that hasn't occurred yet. What if {insert superstar players on various teams} is out for the season, that'll skew all predictions.

It means the Birds are the long shots in a betting pool.

As a BP subscriber, I feel obligated to stand up for the adjusted standings and sabremetrics. Consider that the system is accurate to within a few wins using only the number of runs scored and allowed and you and your opponent's cumulative batting line. The idea here is, that if a team is overperforming compared to their expected record they will either fall back to earth because they're not actually as good as their record would indicate or they have a very good bullpen that is allowing them to win a lot of one run games. At the moment, the latter is true for us. Sherill, Johnson and Albers have been very good and our starters have kept the bullpen from getting overworked. If we keep it up in this fashion, there is no reason we can't exceed the expected wins, just like Arizona did last year. However, the real point is that thus far, we've had a fair amount of luck swing our way, something that you don't really want to count on long term if you're going to make the playoffs.

David--I had the pleasure of watching Val Majewski play at Rutgers. When he was drafted by the Birds in the 3rd round in 2002 my sons and I were ecstatic.

Val was on a fast-track, highly thought of by the Birds. He played in the nationally televised Futures All-Star Game when he was in Double-A. He made to the Major Leagues to play 9 games for the Birds late in 2004.

Then, he suffered a torn labrum and, after missing most of a year, he came back but was not the same player. The bat speed and the pop were not there.

Currently, Val is playing along side another former Oriole prospect (1999 draft) Keith Reed for the Newark Bears of the Independent League.

I still hold out hope that Val can regain his stroke and power potential. Right now for the Bears, after 62 at bats he is hitting .274 with 5 doubles, 0 home runs, 14 rbi, .355 slg,.378 obp.

Maybe, like Tike Redman, Val can get it going in the Independent League and return to the Baltimore Orioles.