Looking back
After replaying last night’s game in my head – my cable’s out again – I honestly wonder whether Jeremy Guthrie is the best 2-6 pitcher on the planet.
As The Sun’s Jeff Zrebiec points out in today’s article, the Orioles have scored eight runs in Guthrie’s six losses. He’s posted a 2.21 ERA in his last three starts, and lost them all.“All the game are close for him,” manager Dave Trembley said after last night’s game. “He takes you late into every ballgame, but for whatever reason, we’re just not scoring any runs when he’s out there. But he certainly gives you everything he’s got. He pitched well again. It just so happened that (Andy) Pettitte pitched better. They took advantage of the opportunities they had, and we didn’t do enough things that we should have done to win the game, and that’s the way it worked out.”
So unfair. But taking two of three from the Yankees shouldn’t have fans banging their heads against the wall. Wouldn’t you normally settle for that – every single time?Here’s what Trembley said about Johnny Damon’s infield hit, when Jamie Walker was slow getting to first base and Kevin Millar threw late, that drove in an insurance run:
“I’ll have to look at it, but I just think from what I saw, Jamie wasn’t over there. He got there late, so I don’t know if he just assumed that Millar was going to take it himself. But the play is, any ball hit to the right side, you get over there anyway. The play was just not done correctly.”I guess we could reopen the debate on whether Andy Pettitte pitches Nick Markakis differently if Brian Roberts doesn’t get caught in a rundown and the Orioles have two runners on base – either first and second or first and third, depending on whether we’re giving Roberts the stolen base in our argument – before Markakis steps to the plate. After Roberts was tagged out, Melvin Mora walked and Markakis doubled, but the Orioles didn’t score.
“It was a pivotal part of the game,” Trembley said. “We were going to steal third. We felt we could steal third. The game is such that after those things happen, you get the hits. I’ve been in situations before, you put a hit-and-run on and the guy gets thrown out. You know what’s going to happen next. The next pitch, the guy gets a base hit. That’s how the game is.”I’ll keep the questions coming: Do you agree with the Yankees’ decision to make Joba Chamberlain a starter?
He returned to the bullpen after coming out of last night’s game and continued to throw so he could build up his pitch count, and his arm, for his eventual move into the rotation. The Yankees need help, with Ian Kennedy injured – though some people might have their doubts about that – and ineffective. But is there anything wrong with having Chamberlain in the ‘pen and being able to reduce games to six or seven innings? With Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera at the backend, leads are pretty safe past the sixth. That is, when they can carry a lead that far.I still can’t believe last night’s game drew an announced crowd of only 24,791. For the Yankees? And with the Orioles going for the sweep?
Ever heard of Jim Miller? He’s the 26-year-old right-handed reliever acquired from the Rockies on Jan. 12, 2007 for Rodrigo Lopez. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last nine appearances with Triple-A Norfolk, with 15 strikeouts in 14 innings. Opponents are batting .108 (5-for-46) during that stretch.

Comments
I give Joba one month as starter before he is back in the pen. I just don't think he will be able to go deep into games. Good news for the other teams in the AL east because that will strain the Yanks bullpen even more. I for one love seeing the Yanks struggling for arms. It's about time. Let them have a decade of trying guys out.
Posted by: Matt Smith | May 29, 2008 10:52 AM
“He takes you late into every ballgame, but for whatever reason, we’re just not scoring any runs when he’s out there."
The reason is simple, Guthrie is slotted as our #1 starter and while our offense can occasionally abuse lesser talented pitching they have real issues scoring against other teams best pitchers.
I am forced to agree on the Joba move. Kennedy and Hughes are not getting it done and Mussina and Pettitte are well past thier primes, the Yankees need to roll the dice.
Of course the above is predicated on the assumption that the risk a higher innings total for Joba is outwieghed by the need for the Yankees to make the playoffs this year.
Posted by: Jeff V. | May 29, 2008 11:06 AM
Not that the extra run mattered in the end last night, but.... Millar has to assume the P can't make it or isn't coming over when he fields those grounders. UNTIL he sees the P is coming & there in time & can beat the runner, he has to make that play himself, no matter how big that piano is on his back. He has to think catch it, run to the bag. Too often I see Millar get a grounder & immediately he is looking to toss the ball. He doesn't even make a move towards the bag. Watch him for a week & see for yourselves. I know he does a good job on bad throws & "cheats" off on throws on close plays to possibly get the call, but getting grounders & making haste towards 1st is NOT his forte to say the least.
One other thing, I am convinced I could beat Millar OR Walker in a foot race & I have 12-14 years on them....plus I am not a ML player or supposedly in as good as shape as they are either.
Roch, I saw Jeff Z on MASN last night. Tell the poor guy two things.... start missing a few of the buffets & don't dress like Larry the Cable Guy when you are going to be on TV.... he made what I used to refer to as Jon Miller's Bal'mer tuxedo (those Tommy Bahama knockoff shirts so popular in Bal'mer) look sharp.
Roch, one word on attendance... GAS
Posted by: Brian | May 29, 2008 11:11 AM
After watching the O's on YES, I am so sick of hearing about Joba the Hutt that my head is going to explode. I hope he gets lit up like Hideki Irabu and we never hear from him again.
Posted by: PAUL.R | May 29, 2008 11:17 AM
Just because Guthrie is our #1 starter doesn't mean he faces the other team's #1.
I mean really, is there a stat on this? How often does it really happen after the 1st few weeks of the season?
Posted by: Custard Doug | May 29, 2008 11:17 AM
I don't agree with the Yankees choice to make Joba a starter. Rivera can't pitch forever, so what's wrong with having Chamberlain in the bullpen for a while to learn from one of the best and eventually take over for him. He helps shorten the game for them, which is important when you have names in the bullpen like Jose Veras, Ross Ohlendorf, Edwar Ramirez, Kyle Farnsworth, and the inconsistent LaTroy Hawkins. When the game gets to the 9th, sure, Rivera will hold the game down, but that's not the problem in their bullpen.
What happens if Joba gets shelled or looks pretty bad after a few starts -- does he go back to the bullpen? How would that look?
The Yankees should probably follow how the Red Sox use/d Papelbon, but it's the Yankees, so I hope their plan backfires anyway.
Posted by: Matt K. | May 29, 2008 11:29 AM
Chamberlain going into the rotation leaves the Yankees with a bullpen almost worthy of the 2007 Orioles. Girardi will start going to Rivera for multiple inning saves, and sooner or later it's going to cost them. I'm usually of the opinion that a solid starter is more valuable than a great set-up man, but the Yankees are stuck. Cashman should have dealt with this situation before the season began.
Posted by: sheets | May 29, 2008 11:55 AM
And the large majority of those fans last night were O's fans. The Yank fans aren't as diehard about invading when their team is hovering near the bottom of the tank. I'm also pretty sure the only reason the attendence is still doing so well in NY is because getting to see Yankee Stadium one last time outweighs the frustrating on-field play the fans are likely to see.
As far as Joba...do I think the Yankees are making the right choice? No. Do I care that they might be messing up a good thing they've got going? Not at all. So far from what I've seen Joba appears to be best late in the game when he can just go with fastball after fastball...once he gets in situations where he has to try his off speed pitches he's nowhere near as sharp. His fastball is pretty dang good, but it's not one of those that's good enough that he can get by with it alone for 6-7 innings. I think he's likely to get lit up nearly as hard as Kennedy has...and now they have NOTHING solid in their bullpen to help get the game to Rivera.
I do however love the idea that good ole Hank has already started to ruin the inner workings of the dynasty he's inherited!! I know the Yankee organization is claiming this is the move they had in mind all along this season...however, I believe that as much as I believed that they really were hoping that Joe Torre would accept the insulting renegotiated contract they offered him this off season.
I know it's "still early", but it sure is kind of fun to watch the panic in New York!
Posted by: Tracy | May 29, 2008 11:57 AM
I have watched Joba pitch and I do not see a quality starter. He has a great fastball with live action on it but he does not spot it well and loses the strike zone frequently. His 2 and 3 pitches are mediocre to average and he lacks a command of those.
As a 7th and 8th inning pitcher he only has to go through a line-up once and he can focus on his fastball only. He should stay in that position until he replaces Rivera as closer.
As a starter I am not impressed and I believe he will be have a Ponson-esque career.
Posted by: David Fisher | May 29, 2008 12:00 PM
Hey Roch,
Yeah I have heard of him! I have been closely following the minors this year and I think the Orioles have a few "surpirses" that some people might not know about. Jim Miller for one has looked great (as far as box score goes) as does Luis Montanez (is he reading?) raising his avg to .327, 9HR, 35 RBI, while at AA in 2008 ABs; when will he be promoted? After the break? Salaazar still seems to be our only long ball threat in AAA batting .299 6HR, 35 RBI- when do we option L Hernandez and bring this guy up? He plays 1B!! Any word on his defense? says he not made an error yet??
Posted by: terps19 | May 29, 2008 12:03 PM
About the attendence...while I know we have ZERO room to talk...I actually feel bad for Tampa's team. They are in 1st place and with a winning record for the first time in their history -- and last night they drew less than 11,000. I know that the inflated gas, electric and grocery prices are bringing everyone down but it's still surprising that they still aren't drawing anyone.
Poor Jeremy. That's all I have to say. Poor Jeremy!
I don't know that anyone needs to pitch any differently to Markakis right now. He's REALLY struggling badly at the moment and he's killing us in RISP situations. I have absolute faith that he'll eventually get himself straightened out and when he does he'll be unstoppable (because he's done it before), but right now it's just so tough to watch. I feel for him, because you can see where it's starting to get to him.
Posted by: Tracy | May 29, 2008 12:05 PM
I think you definitely leave Joba in the bullpen. With him in the pen it's basically a 7 inning game for the Yanks. How many teams can say that? Yanks would be better off keeping him as their 8th inning guy and grooming him to replace Mariano, but hey if they wana screw around and make the wrong moves thats perfectly fine with me. Hank Steinbrenner is the ultimate POS.
Posted by: Dave | May 29, 2008 12:08 PM
Here we go again with the Trembley excuse machine.Petite just pitched better,no Trembley Guthrie pitched better you just don't want to admit the decision to have Roberts that far off the base was a boneheaded move and the decision to bring Walker in and leave him in was a mistake as well.Not sure Walker would have got Damon even if he hustled right away,but what about the force at second?Isn't that why you loaded the bases to start with?Or throw the ball home,it was hit sharply enough.Have to place the blame on both Millar and Walker for that one.By the way,I remember another Oriole pitcher who got very little run support the last three years he was here,you could see him in the opposing dugout last night.Hope that doesn't happen to Guthrie,he's been a class act about it so far,but it has to take a toll on you emotionally,mentally and physically,just knowing one pitch could change the whole game every time you're out there.Ever heard of Greg Aquino,he got used once ever y 14 days and I still don't think he's given up an earned run in Triple A.And why Terrero isn't on the bench over Hernandez I'll never know.WHO CARES IF HE'S OUT OF OPTIONS,NOT LIKE HE'S SOME HUGE PROSPECT SOMEBODY'S GOING TO SNATCH UP!
Posted by: Burt from Essex | May 29, 2008 12:28 PM
Only 24,791 at last night's game, for the Yankees? The answer is simple. After two straight losses and with a firm grasp on last place, the local Yankee fans stayed home. No cause for concern. Those same fans sat home last night unpacking their Boston gear and reworking their accents and will at the yard this weekend as obnoxious Red Sox fans.
Posted by: Steve | May 29, 2008 12:31 PM
Roch,
I say great move to put Chamberlain in the pen, he can only dominate once every fifth day instead of affecting every other game. The set-up man is just as important as your closer. Hank is starting to relive the 80's when the Yanks got old and made dumb decisions. Hopefully the worm has turned for us against them, no the Sox they've got young talent on the way and on the big club so it will a few years before we can even dream of catching them
Posted by: Cheese | May 29, 2008 12:37 PM
I have always wondered why teams like the Orioles insist on "power-matching" their pitchers against their opposition -- meaning our #1 vs. their #1, our #2 vs. their #2, etc. I understand you want your best pitchers to start as many games as possible, but so often it results in a situation like Guthrie's, where so many quality starts are essentially wasted.
Wouldn't it make far more sense for the Orioles to try to match their #1 vs. the opponent's #2 or even #3, the Orioles #2 vs. the opponent's #3 or #4, etc. At the end of the rotation you obviously would end up with your #5 against your opponent's #1 (no doubt I'd end up with tickets to that one!) but in the other four games, you might create something of an advantage.
Posted by: Joe Dalhart | May 29, 2008 12:39 PM
"Roch, one word on attendance... GAS"
I know a plate of Boog BBQ is a pretty rich meal, but I doubt the post-digestive consequences of eating it is driving people away from the stadium.
/only half kidding
Posted by: Greg | May 29, 2008 12:45 PM
Roch,
Last night's game pointed up the fact again that the Orioles need to do whatever they can in the off-season, or at the trade deadline, to get a clean-up hitter. It is very obvious that Kevin Millar is over-matched in that position. Last night, he left 6 runners on base with 3 k's. If he gets just one hit in any of those situations, we, at least, have a tie game, with the possibility of a win.
Posted by: John S | May 29, 2008 12:54 PM
Some of the losses are hard luck but when you finally get the lead, you simply cannot give up runs the following half inning. 2-1, just got momentum and he gives up a bomb to golden thong with two outs. And that came after Hernandez went out to talk to him, you could almost feel it was coming. Sometimes you make your own luck.
Posted by: Mick | May 29, 2008 12:58 PM
Brian,
Agree about Millar, however, even if Millar had immediately started lumbering towards first, Damon would still have beaten him.
Jeff V,
Just because Guthrie is our #1, doesn't mean that he always faces the other team's best pitcher. Much of it depends on how the rotations are set when the two teams meet. Someimes teams adjust their rotations to get a more favorable matchup, but usually it's more chance.
Every year we have one pitcher who doesn't get any run support. This year it's Guthrie.
Posted by: Ron | May 29, 2008 1:14 PM
Yes Ron, I know, however Guthrie didn't get matched up against Kennedy now did he? Overall Guthrie has been facing the better pitchers the other teams have to offer.
Since I am willing to do research and not just guess here is the list:
Shields, Hernandez, Shields, Floyd, Hernandez, Contreras, Weaver, Blanton, Beckett, Lannan, Garza and Pettitte.
That doesn't look like a group of number 4 and 5 starters to me.
David Fisher... Joba's slider is WAY better then average to mediocre. Sir Sidney never lit the gun up to a tune of 98+ mph either.
Posted by: Jeff V. | May 29, 2008 2:02 PM
Ron, Agreed on last night, it would have made no difference. I was pointing out that this happens alot with Millar & I was just giving my 2 cents on why. It drives me crazy to see him grabbing grounders then standing there waiting or weeble wobbling towards first...
Greg, I was referring to the economy in general & the domino affect gas prices are having on everything plus budgets. That along with potter hate is dooming attendance.
Posted by: Brian | May 29, 2008 2:14 PM
Check this out from today's chat on ESPN.com:
Andy (Baltimore): When do you see Wieters behind the dish at Camden Yards?
Keith Law: (2:27 PM ET ) September.
Posted by: Andy | May 29, 2008 2:30 PM
Jeff,
I will say Joba's slider may be average at best. not a hard break and he spots it poorly. He can throw heat but any major leaguer can hit 98+ heat if there is nothing else thrown in during the 2nd and 3rd times they face Joba in a game.
Joba has a great arm but he is not going to be a quality starter until he can actually pitch instead of throw. They will regret removing him from the bullpen and he will play most of his career as a set-up man and closer.
To state it simply: Joba is not impressive at all. Seen his kind before and the hype is not worth the product.
Posted by: David Fisher | May 29, 2008 3:09 PM
I agree with Jeff V that, considering the disappointments of Hughes and Kennedy so far, the Yankees have little choice but to go with Chamberlain as a starter. For them, it’s about winning now, and nothing will make the heads of the Yankee brass and faithful explode more than sitting in last place. Of course, the Yankees were stupid to bank on the emergence of Kennedy and Hughes and not have adequate veteran pitchers in place if they were banking on the playoffs. A rotation of Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Kennedy, and Hughes just wasn’t going to get it done.
A Chamberlain-Rivera combo could be a lethal one, and the Yankees will need someone to take over Rivera’s role eventually. Chamberlain may or may not be the future answer there, but now, while he’s young, seems like a good time to see. Above all, he’s succeeding in his current role, whereas Hughes and Kennedy did not. As we know too well here, having a solid bullpen is just as critical to winning as solid starting pitching. If his path goes down the road of dominant closer, how can that not be an asset to them?
I think it’s ridiculous that the Chamberlain situation was mandated by the current Steinbrenner, but of course this is good news for the rest of the division. Bad performance by the Yankees will translate into dumb decisions by the front office. We can only hope that it all leads to panicked, ill-advised trades and free agent contracts that will further hurt the team’s long-term performance.
Posted by: CRB | May 29, 2008 3:10 PM
I agree with people on here. Joba is not a starter at all. He was always a bullpen man. Just throw 95-99 and you'll be fine.
To start from 1st inning to 6 innings? Uh-huh, no way. You need more than just that laser to get through several innings.
I did not see the game, but followed it on my Blackberry, and I was wondering, like the heck outta me, how the O's allowed an infield single, and I see Walker or Millar could not even cover to first, but I will give the benefit of the doubt. BUT, they have to make that play any time. Here comes the fielding practice for both of them.
Jim Miller? I have not heard of him, but if you display these kinds of stats. Sure, why not, let's bring up another Jim and see if he can do the same as another fellow Jim.
Posted by: Ben W | May 29, 2008 3:14 PM
Jeff V,
Easy...my point was that run support or non-run support is one of those quirky things in baseball, and doesn't necessarily depend on location in the rotation.
By the way...I did looked up some of his games.
Posted by: Ron | May 29, 2008 3:18 PM
Read your blogs Roch and you'll know about Jim Miller. I'm just a guy from Relay. For the 10th time, we have 1st. basemen out the ying yang. Tell Mac. to play Superman [ or learn ] to play left field. Save those legs. He has a great arm. Playing left and catching would work.
Posted by: Herb | May 29, 2008 3:43 PM
Joe Dalhart...thank you for that , my thoughts exactly. And not only that, it has to psychologically wear down your #1 after a while.
Posted by: BC Mike | May 29, 2008 4:12 PM
Not disagreeing with you directly there Ron, I am just saying that while it can be quirky I think a lot of it has to do with the caliber of pitcher Guthrie is going up against. Last year Bedard was having run support issues no? Well guess where he was slotted.
David, If Joba's slider is not a quality pitch who in the majors throws a good slider?
For someone who is "not impressive at all" he sure seems to do well. He gave up all of one earned run last year after getting called up with a 3/32 BB/K ratio.
Now I am not saying he is going to win 20 next year as a starter, I personally think the bullpen would be a better place for his stuff and mindset, but he is filthy.
Ben W. He wasn't always a bullpen man, untill he got called up last year he was a starter in the minors. The sad state of the Yankee's bullpen is what caused the change. He went 9-2 in 15 starts in the minors last year. He was also 2-2 for the Canefire as a starter in Hawaii.
Posted by: Jeff V. | May 29, 2008 4:22 PM
I cant wait until our roster looks something like this:
Lineup:
2B - Roberts
CF - Jones
RF - Markakis
1B - Texiera
C - Weiters
3B - Rowell
DH - Snyder
LF - Scott
SS - Cintron
Bench:
Quiroz
Salazar/Costanzo
Bynum
Reimold
Rotation:
RHP Guthrie
LHP Burres
RHP Cabrera
LHP Olson
Loewen/Albers/Liz/Arrieta/etc
Bullpen:
LR: Albers/Penn/Liz/etc
MR: Bierd
MR: Safarte
MR: Cormier
SU: McCrory
SU: Johnson
CL: Sherrill
Posted by: Alan in VA | May 29, 2008 4:54 PM
Alan,
If we have Scott, Rowell, Snyder and Cintron in our starting nine we must still be rebuilding. Cintron is a solid fix temporarily and Scott could platoon if we have not found an actual top flight leftfielder but Rowell and Snyder will have to find Barry Bonds' supplier to be starters on a team that wants to compete for the AL East title.
As for the rotation, I think Johnson moves into it before Burres remains there. I too look forward to the future with our young guys but we do not yet have the makings down on the farm for a World Series contender. We still need to draft wisely and deeply.
Posted by: David Fisher | May 29, 2008 6:07 PM
Jeff V.
Best sliders in baseball:
Bonderman
Liriano
Buchholtz
Watch them pitch and you will see that Joba's does not bite as hard, does not move down more than laterally and has early action instead of late action.
Don't test me on the slider. I know more about that pitch than half the major leaguers.
Posted by: David Fisher | May 29, 2008 6:12 PM
Roch:
How is it possible that a team with resources of the Orioles do not have one position player to promote the the Orioles to replace a Millar, Mora, Huff or Roberts? With the high draft picks they have by virtue of 10 losing seasons, who was sleep walking the last 10 years?
Posted by: A George, Harrisburg, Pa | May 31, 2008 11:13 AM