Great reporting Roch. Thanks for the constant updates, thats an awesome thing to hear.

Jennifer - I completely see your side of the story, but I partially think you are being hypocritical, since you admit you smoke once a month. I might be stretching a bit here, but that would be like a person who killed someone with a gun (intentionally I might add) being an advocate for banning guns. If it is THAT disgusting of a habit as you say, then why do it?

As far as bartenders go, that is the lifestyle they chose. It's not like they are forced to work there. I'm sure most of them love their job and the money they make (my father in law is one who would agree with this), but like I said, they chose that career path.

I manage a pest control company. Do you think that if I knew our pesticides affected my health that much I would have started working here? No.

Call me stupid.............. but I completely agree......... I think we can all agree that the current 10 year plan did not work

We're coming to the end of a work day and I've now spent a week constantly going from desk to computer, to see if the deal is done. Hopefully we'll hear the dinner bell soon and I'll have a more productive work week, next week!

Since Aberdeen only plays half the year, McGregor should only have to do half the show. Fair is fair.

Roch,

Are you hearing the same Jones-Tillman-Sherill-Butler-Macklio deal?

There's a rumor that the deal is now a 6 for 2. Any chance Triunfel could be added here?

I've heard the same thing too many times, "...I think what their getting is outstanding". This was said when the O's dealt Ponson to the Giants. None of those guys ever pleyed effectively for the O's.

Eric, interesting post, but I think it's the wrong section.
Roch, do you still feel that AM doesn't lie? This was a strange situation, but I don't know that I believe everything that came out of the FO this week: Angelos had a family engagement, other teams were inquiring about Bedard (I buy that, but nothing serious). You probably can't even answer this. Do you wonder what it's like to be Adam Jones right now? A man without a team. Different for him because he's so young.

Roch - If the O's get most of the players they are rumored to be getting, I am not sure I agree with the scout.

I expect they will be no worse than 2007 and no better. Comparatively, Bedard only won 13 games, which Guthrie should match with a full season starting and no injuries. Lowen should at least match Guthrie's numbers and Patton has to be better than the cast of clowns the O's matched out in the bottom of the order. Burres, on paper, does not belong but he keeps proving himself in every start. DCab can not possibly be worse than 2007.

I also am not sold that Tampa is going to be all that great. How many times have they surged in the 2nd half of a season, get everyone excited in the off season and then flop in the next season? They have to prove something first.

I do not see that much improvement but I do not see 100 losses, either.

Out of curiosity, is he a scout for Chicago, Philly, or an East Coast AL team? If so, the opinion does not surprise me....

Rob - It is hard for any 10 year plan to work if you change it every year! Or every 6 months....

Let's see how long this plan sticks.

Hmmmmm, it sounds to me like the scout was referring to us euthanizing a horse or something.

"They're doing the right thing."

Did you leave out the rest of the quote, Roch?

"That poor franchise. It's been limping around, blind, it's hip and back are shot, it's borderline painful to even look at..... they're doing the right thing."

Be honest, Roch. That's really what he said, isn't it?

My Fiance and I both have mixed feelings about this trade. We have season tickets and love watching Bedard pitch and B-Rob play! However, we both think that the Bedard deal is a def step in the right direction. Imagine a 2010 outfield of Reimold, Jones, and Markakis. I still think hold onto B-Rob unless you get a knock out offer.

Sidenote, does anyone else remember about 5 years ago when the Orioles ran an ad that said "Come watch the boys play." I think the ad featured Roberts, Gibbons, and Richards...ahhhh memories!

The facts about second-hand smoke:

In 1994 the Clinton Administration commissioned 11 studies at various universities and research facilities to determine the effects of second-hand smoke. The reult? All 11 came back and said second-hand smoke does NOT harm anyone. So, the Clinton Administration said "what if you double the variance in the studies?", 10 of the 11 still showed no effect, the 11th did but said this was unscientific. The Clinton Adminstration said we don't care, we have definitive proof that second hand smoke kills. Thems the facts folks, whether you like them or not.

Now, it is merely annoying when you bunch of babbling idiots discuss baseball, but, it is downright dangerous to everybody's life and liberty when you decide to pontificate on politics, science, economics or philosophy!

Do you really think the government that lied to you about second-hand smoke in order to violate the rights of one group, is going to play it straight when it comes to your pleasure? You might ask those who like food with transfats in them, or high sugar drinks, both of which are now under government assault in parts of the country.

We are giving away our freedom and rights in this once great country, at an alarming rate, and with no fight.

THAT is what is scary about "second-hand smoke"...

Eric in PA....that was the most idiotic post I have ever read. This is an Orioles forum you d-bag.

Roch, could you define the passage of time that accounts for the phrase "Pretty Soon" it's been a pretty comical offseason so far.

This will be a right move by the O's, and we will see that soon enough. Like Rob said, the current plan has sucked miserably, so why not try rebuilding with better talent to start with. Just gotta hold on a few more years guys.

I love reading everyones comments whether they are good, bad or idiotic, but can we please keep the comments to discussions about the O's! Maybe a new rule Roch??

And please get this trade finalized!! I am sick and tired listening to these NW fans up here complaining about giving up too much for a two year rental of Bedard!

Just because the return of Estaban Yan is such a bottomless source of fascination, I noticed that if you drop the one year TB miscast him as a starter, his ERA drops to a svelte 4.82, only .20 above the league average during his career. All just a matter of using that raw talent in its proper role. I have yet to try this experiment with Dave Schmidt. And according to the AAA All-Star Game announcer on ESPN last summer, the 'Stros keep Travis Driskill around just so their hitters at that level can practice hitting changeups.

John Gait, second hand smoke is actually quite harmful. If you don't believe that, well, you're the idiot. No one said you can't smoke your nasty cigarette. They just said you can't do it while you're inside a public place. Stop crying and go outside. Your freedom hasn't been impinged upon. The banning of trans fats is a different type of issue, which would be akin to the banning of cigs - any freshman philosophy major at college could tell you that.

I'm so with ya John Galt.

But do foods really taste any better with trans-fats?

All I know is hanging at the bar aint gonna be the same anymore. If only all the people that don't like smoke in bars could make their own non-smoking bars we could all be happy. Which of course could be reasonably done but then...............What would all the poor law-makers do with their day???

Wow, you are all geniuses!!! Baltimore should hold onto Roberts unless they get a "knock out" offer...That way, you'll finish last in the AL East in 2008 AND 2009 with Roberts on your team...and then he'll walk away for NOTHING after the 2009 season...BRILLIANT!!! I cannot understand why the O's have been garbage for so long...

Reality Check! Johan Santana was just traded for a bag of balls and some Big League Chew...Why? Because he was ONE year away from Free Agency, not TWO, and a team was only going to get 1 year of his services without signing him to an extension...

News Flash: "B-Rob's" value didn't increase after he got caught by the "principal" and had to give an apology in front of the whole "school" to save himself from real punishment...Admitting to cheating doesn't increase your value...90+ losses with Roberts, 90+ losses without Roberts...

I loved the post about Roberts maybe re-signing back with the O's after the '09 season because he'd see all of the "talent" around him at that point...Did you drink the whole bottle of Everclear before that thought??? I'm pretty sure by the end of '09, Roberts would be dealing with a 2 year case of uncontrolled vomitting because of the disgusting display of "baseball" that he'd been a part of the last 2...well, 3 seasons...

Remember when Roberts' increased production at the plate was attributed to those "new contact lenses" he'd been experimenting with??? hahahahaha

And all this time I thought this was a baseball blog.

Imagine my surprise to see political and social issues here.

Roch,

This is your domain. You decide what gets posted here.

I haven't yet commented on this but have enjoyed reading some of the back-and-forth about the trade.

As much as I like Bedard, I think the Orioles have to make this trade. I'm not going to beat the reasons to death, because they've been discussed at length. It's been too long that they've been signing retread free agents as band-aids that haven't stopped the hemorrhaging. That hasn't worked; it's painfully evident. Let's hope this does, so that someday soon maybe we can see some meaningful games in August and September (heck, June and July for that matter!).

I don't know if anyone has brought this up, but how many strikeouts do you think Bedard will have in the Saturday or Sunday game when Seattle comes to Baltimore for the first weekend of the season? I'm saying 12 in six innings. After that, he turns it over to the bullpen.

:I talked to a scout from outside the Orioles and Mariners organizations who, judging by what he's hearing, says he believes the Bedard trade will get done "pretty soon.""

It is funny how everyone, many who post here regularly, believe this statement when you blast the media for the rumors that are put out there. This like saying my friend knows some one, who's brother's uncle works for the Phillies.

Steve - good comments

I flipped thru and saw Tom Davis, Jim Hunter and Roch Kubatko talking about the Orioles. It was like watching the Iraqi Information Minister talk about they were winning the war while Bagdag was being bombed.

there is no triunfel in this deal so stop hoping and be happy with what we got
it was a lot and we should all be happy
i asked jason churchill over at seattle pi what he was hearing about roberts because he has an o's inside guy and was the first one to give us mickolio and butler
heres what he had to say:

Jason A. Churchill says:
February 1st, 2008 at 4:12 pm
cw,

The team aren’t talking much, from what I hear. But the idea isn’t dead.

The Cubs aren’t sure they want to give up the talent it takes to get Roberts.

I have heard package rumors that include the O’s sending one of the pitcher they get from Seattle - not Tillman - to the Cubs to get JH to be more willing to consider trading Marshall AND Gallagher with Pie.

Trading Bedard and Roberts aren't good moves nor are efforts in that direction "encouraging" (as deal mongers like Roch are claiming), even if the O's get decent return for them, which is debatable at best.

This idea that there was a "10 year plan" that failed does not take into consideration the good that came through the Orioles system in the past decade, including Erik and Brian. Getting rid of them is an insult to the organization.

And, theoretically, Nick Markakis could also be dealt, however remote the possibility, since Andy MacPhail has said no one is untouchable. If Nick goes, then no fans should attend O's games for the next decade.

Honestly, Peter A. needs to rein in MacPhail and soon, before he totally ruins the team. Yes, I can see getting rid of Tejada as part of a rebuilding effort. He was unhappy, moving past his prime and acquired from another team.

MacPhail struck gold, then decided to see if his luck would hold by gutting the team. Once he trades two (or three) stars IN THEIR PRIME for a bunch of "some day" (or never) prospects, then we're no longer talking rebuilding, We're talking an insane nuking of the team that destroys any core of players with its continuity and stability.

Angelos gave "Andy boy" the keys to the team car with little or no adult supervision and unless he takes the wheel away from him pretty soon there's going to be a wreck worse by far than any seen in the past ten years.

I thought many of you would find the "Bird-land" sidebar in this Jayson Stark ESPN column - some good stuff about the possible Bedard-trade returns.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3225433

And now that I have made a clear and substantial baseball-related comment, I'd like to add that John Galt's comments about second-hand smoke studies are complete nonsense and reflect targeted efforts by the tobacco industry to cast doubt on legitimate research. A search on the topic will reveal plenty of the boilerplate sneering as well as extensive data from respected studies on the deadly effects of second-hand smoke. Freedom and rights my a** Thanks for reading my one-time political rant.

I truly hate it when people refer to a person with the first initial then first half of their last name. BRob?Bmore instead of Baltimore...Ctown....WTF?.....WTF? WHAT...THE....F?

Andrew,

I was unaware, the Wall Street Journal worked for the tobacco industry. Thanks for clearing that up.

Anon, I am to be so sure of the harm, why? Because you say so? How about something to back up your argument? Or, like those in Washington, just go with the polls and the hell with the facts.

Satyr3206 - Well said!!!

Can we get away from fighting about the real world and get back to fighting about baseball?????????????

Many here have chastised the deal for Bedard. I too would have liked to have seen the team lock him up long term a year ago. That's not happening. So give MacPhail the power to find the best return for him. What we are getting from Seattle is good. Check out the internet and see what baseball people in the know are saying.

I stated here a few days ago that in five years you won't trade Jones for Bedard even up. Jones is a stud. He's Michael Jordan in a baseball uniform.... in other words he's smooth/athletic. The ball jumps off his bat. I know he hit .241 in 65 at bats last year with the big club. Go back and see what Markakis was hitting after 65 abs in his rookie year. One scout was quoted in Buster Olney's column as saying "He's going to be a monster".

Tillman . . . Read Jayson Stark's column. All the scouts love this guy. He may end up being the best player in this trade. The critics say he had a five something ERA in High A ball last year. Give em a break. He's only 19. Brandon Erbe pitched in High A last year. What was his ERA? Worse I believe. Are the good people of Baltimore going to cross Erbe off the list of future Orioles. Is Erbe Jim Palmer or Sidney Ponson? Right now he's Chris Tillman, I believe a good comparison.

Sherrill. His numbers last year were approaching BJ Ryan territory(45 IP. 2.36 ERA, 28 hits, 56 k's and a whip of .99) What's not to like? Can he close for this team ? Absolutely. He's the hard throwing lefty MacPhail said he wanted.

The other two may or may not pan out, but the 6-9 kid could pitch for the team this summer. The other kid's a good looking lefty. Many complain because of all the pitcher's we have stocked in the minors. You can never have enough pitching. MacPhail's not stupid. Watch and see how many of these pitcher's get traded for position players, that we badly need, in the next two years. Probably sooner. I'll bet he brings in a middle infielder or two before spring training via trade.

Just remember O's fans. Back in August many of you were waiting with baited breath to see how good Garrett Olsen was going to be. When's the last time Olsen's name was brought up as someone who is going to be a mainstay in this year's rotation? That's progress!!!

The other two pitchers

"Pretty soon"

That is kinda cool, I can almost not wait until this deal sorta happens. I am on the latter half of my seat.
-m

Tom D - I agree with your earlier post about the return of some of our veterans at the trade deadline. Huff and Millar with solid first halves will have some value. It would be nice to say the same about Payton and Gibbons, but I have my doubts. Actually, it would be nice if Payton were gone before spring training.

I also agree that it might be smart to keep Roberts after the Bedard trade is done.
Who is this verteran closer you want us to sign? Wickman's the only one I have faint interest in and not if we get Sherrill. Unfortunately, Jorge Julio signed with the Indians . . . that was a joke!

TerryP - You are critical of MacPhail bringing in all of these 30 year olds. If the Bedard trade goes thru, I count one. Sherrill . . . and he seems to be just entering his prime. We will have gotten ten players for two(Bedard and Tejada) and eight of those are under 25. You stated that we are unloading Bedard and Roberts because of their age. Where did you get that idea? We are trading them because they will be free agents in two years, may not have any interest in resigning here, and have high trade value.

Brian and others who see Rowell as our future third baseman. As i've said here before he has a long, long way to go to be a major league third baseman. His bat will be fine, but third base may not be his position.

Second hand smoke doesn't do what? John Galt, you have to be kidding. Breathing in smoke, no matter the source or where, does get into a person's lungs. That's pure physics.
Using the Clinton's as a source to say SHS doesn't affect people? Just look what one cigar did to Clinton.... we non smokers avoiding lung cancer, throat cancer, etc rest our case. Puff away, down the street!

For those folks who think that these trades are bad and detrimental--how can we keep these guys with all the problems we had last year? They are our only bargaining chips. That is it. Do we stand pat? Continue to sign more Jay Paytons? Pay a bazillion dollars for one player when we need a dozen? Its gotta start somewhere. You aren't going to get Ruth/Gehrig and Mantle for one player. We can't change what happened the last 10 years. Lets get a direction and stick to it and add to it next year. .500 by 2009 and maybe compete by 2010...Who knows? I am more inclined to buy a ticket to watch these kids play their heart out than I am to see an overrated juiced-up Tejada drop a routine ground ball or go through the motions of running out a grounder.

Here here Andrew!

I bet you guys didn't know I was actually 22 when I shot those photos did you? See how smoking can age you?

here's my take. bedard and roberts are in their prime. as has been said, going into the season with them, and then subsequently trading them at the deadline, does nothing to bolster their status as prime mlb players; it only risks injury, or worse, back falling. you get what you can now. then, as the season goes on, the teams contending will inevitably find holes, either through miscalculation, or through injury. in this case you have mora, huff, millar and payton as your deadline tradeables. but in the meantime you need some vets to teach the rooks the ropes. and who knows.... guthrie, loewen, cabrera could be deadly this year!!! could be death, but could be deadly......

in other words, the best you'll do for bedard and roberts is now, and then, as previously stated, teams are in less of a bargaining position at the deadline, and are therefore willing to part with high prospect talent for what is fading talent.

i'm thinking mcphail knows what he's doing. minnesota should be proof enough. trading miggy the day before the mitchell report should be more than enough. that was a steal!!!! the bedard trade will be a steal!!!! and roberts, if traded, will be a steal!!! if things go as we believe this year, than the deadline trades will, as well, all be steals!!!! 2008 will be fun to watch with all the kids, and possibilities. 2009, against all the scouts, could be a great season. anyone here remember the "magic" of '89????

anyhow, sorry to ramble. i've been laid off, and have too much time on my hands. and now, with all the talk of phillip's, i've had too many crab cakes, and too may tall cold ones!!! thanks roch....

h is for holy backfin, batman......

Roch:
Thanks for the up-to-the-minute reporting on the trade. Regardless of what happens with Bedard, Angelos has once again shown that he continues to micro-manage the club and that deals and trades are going to suffer from his interventions. If his track record were more successful, we could forgive him this weakness. It is his money, after all. But after 10 years of losing, this club needs a GM who can make a deal and stick to it, without an owner who goes and loses his temper because a player talks about a trade before his physical!

Waiting for the trade to be announced? Why not make a big splash and do it at half time of the Super Bowl? Let Tom Petty invite his Traveling Wilburys’ pal Bob Dylan to the 50-yard line for what else? “Ballad of a Thin Man”

“Because something is happening here
But you don’t know what it is
Do you, Mister Jones?”

Petty can then build on this with “I Need to Know” and “The Waiting,” so expressive of the angst of Adam Jones and all devoted Oriole fans. As one final tease, he can sing Country Joe’s “Hold on it’s Coming.”

And then, finally, all will be revealed when Petty hooks up on stage with Bird lover Stevie Nicks and delivers “Insider.”

Who’s that on stage now with Petty? It’s Adam Jones, who millions have just been told is a new Baby Bird, joining the nest at Camden Yards in resounding fashion when Petty and the Heartbreakers break into “Learning to Fly.”

Rocco must be out having a smoke. I hope he is at least 50 feet from the computer.

"Come watch the boys play." I think the ad featured Roberts, Gibbons, and Richards...ahhhh memories!

Wait wait wait, who's richards.

To Joyless in Mudville-I think you have been breathing in second hand smoke from a different source.PA rein in McPhail,now that's too funny,what have you been watching the last ten years?I liked this comment"before McPhail totally ruins the team",stop already my sides hurt,if the team has been ruined and you'll get no argument from me on that one,it was by Napoleon the Greek,not AM.Are you and Pete related by some chance?Only thing I can think of to justify those idiotic comments!

I agree that rebuilding means we have to trade Bedard, but there's a decent chance that in 5 years from now, if he stays healthy, we may be looking at the fact that we traded the best pitcher in the game.

He was truely amazing last year. Consider; The O's were 50-84 when he wasn't pitching, a sad sack .373 team. When he was pitching, they were 19-9, a .679 team. It boggles the mind to think about what his record might have been if he'd been playing for Boston. He might have won 20 by the time he went down in August.

After a somewhat rough April, in 21 starts from May 1st, only once did he give up more than 3 runs, only 4 times gave up as many as 3. In 16 of the 21 starts he gave up 2 or less. His ERA was 2.21.

Bedard was a pulled rib muscle away from a legitimate shot at the Cy Young last year, on a team that without him wasn't a whole lot better than a good AAA team.

I know we've got to do it, but if he stays healthy, we are giving up a real jewel. I sure hope AM is a good talent evaluator.

Joyless in Mudville must be one of the Angelos' idiot sons. The Os can only retain Bedard and Roberts for a max of 2 years. Both players have stated they do not want to be part of a rebuilding process. Both players are in their late 20s with the team having no shot at winning in the next 3 years. How can things get any worse? This team has been a running joke for 10 years.

Adam H, your post is unpleasant to say the least. First, I wouldn't say Santana was dealt for "a bag of balls and big league chew (TM)". Keith Law's list of Top 100 prospects in baseball contained several of the prospects the Twins obtained, and it's easy to see that Santana forced the Twins hand and reduced their bargaining position. I also thought they could do better, but it isn't correct to say they got little and therefore Roberts should fetch less.

Second, the caught by the principal analogy is wrong. If you read the Mitchell Report, the evidence on Roberts was confined to a single person saying that he remembered a conversation where Roberts said he'd tried steroids "once or twice." The case was so slim that Roberts could have denied it and kept his reputation. Instead he was up front about it when he didn't have to be. I'm hurt that he cheated, but place his integrity well above the scores of PED users that weren't named in the report and the tainted players that push false denials. Who's your favorite player?

Last, your implication that Roberts' 2005 season was steroid induced is weak. In 2004, Melvin Mora hit .340 with a .981 OPS. Tejada drove in 150 runs that year. Sosa hit 35 HR with the Cubs and was added to the Orioles lineup, where he was protected by a still dangerous Palmeiro and Javy Lopez. What does this mean? Pitchers weren't about to give Roberts a free pass with that lineup behind him. He got fastballs over the plate, and he jumped on them. You can see it in the pitches he saw per AB, which was the lowest of his career that year. And when Mora got hurt and hit like crap and everyone knew Sosa was finished, Roberts HR's tailed off dramatically.

The" watch the kids play" also included Jerry Hairston,Brook Fordyce and believe it or not Sidney Ponson. I still have a cup with all of them and Mike Hargrove on it. I throw the cup away every week and every week after the trash is picked up I find it still sitting on my curb. Even my trash doesn't want to be associated with the Orioles'"talent pool".

Hey Rock, Larry Stone wrote a story for the Seattle Times, headlined "Bedard trade talk is head scratcher." The link is http://seattletimes.newsource.com/html/mariners/2004259710_mari02.html
One key quote says, "The biggest wild card in determining whether the Mariners will ultimately get Bedard remains the unpredictable Angelos, who has been preoccupied all week with a personal matter but remains in the loop.
A lot of the article rehashes what has been said before, but there is growing sentiment that these negotiations are taking way too much time. It is a lightly different look at the same story.

You guys are going to love the smoke free establishments. Smoking indoors at the expense of non-smokers is something that should have been banned a long time ago. I was a smoker when I moved to CA in 2001 and I was able to get used to it quickly (although its always pretty warm outside here). Anyway, Maryland finally figured it out and got on board, its about time.

Also, its not about freedom. That's a smoker's selfish thought. What about the freedom of non-smokers and their right to be free of disgusting, smelly, yellowing second-hand smoke? Its about courtesy, which most smokers don't have. The law will now step in and ensure it.

Just before an O's game (token Orioles reference), we went to Bob Evans in Timonium for breakfast one day last year and the only table available was in the "smoking section". I was shocked they still had one. We decided to try it out because we were so hungry. It was an enclosed dining room with about 8 tables. It was almost as bad as the smoker's rooms inside Dulles airport. The people eating breakfast in that room, with their butts burning and camping in the ashtray, pretty much reminded me of a cross between the Beverly Hillbillies and the mutated freaks from the Hills Have Eyes movies. We decided to get back in line for a non-smoking table.

Bedard is a good pitcher but a grumpy bitchy baby, so I won't miss him if we get
2 decent players for him. He won't re-sign here anyway, so get what you can. BR also will not re-sign. He said he didn't want to be part of a rebuild, and that is whats happening. So he is gone at the end of his contract too. I love to see him play, but be realistic.
Oh and if you believe that your inhaling of your smoke removes all the bad stuff (yeah sure) then you can believe that second hand smoke is just fine. But if you are in such a state of denial, then you probably don't think smoking is bad for you anyway.
O's fans are Soylent Green!

Misinformation is worse than no information, so since the topic was raised about the effects of SHS-- here are some follow-up references (meta-analyses that provide an average effect size from all studies on SHS). Like most risk factors, your odds of disease and death increase moderately. It's not a risk I'm willing to take but there are plenty of worse things people do. I have no real agenda other than to make sure that people look into both sides of an argument and draw your own conclusions. Arrogant and dismissive is no way to go through life, JG.

https://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/abstract/340/12/920

http://www.dh.gov.uk/dr_consum_dh/groups/dh_digitalassets/@dh/@en/documents/digitalasset/dh_4101475.pdf

http://www.tobacco.org/Documents/9406EPA.html#aa4

Joyless In Mudville -

Are you serious? You want to blame MacPhail for ruining this team? I guess he was the one who bloated contracts to overrated players like Payton, Gibbons, Mora, and Huff. Now we are stuck with these contracts.

As for trading Bedard and Roberts. Both have advised MacPhail that they'd rather not be part of a rebuilding process. Bedard seems intent on testing the free agent market, and really, based on his experience playing for the O's, do you blame him? Roberts might be the one who stays, as the overall packages mentioned, don't really seem to benefit the Birds. However, the Mariner's reported offer for Bedard is a good one. Despite what some so-called experts, who think their knowledge of the game is superior to MLB scouts, think. Most baseball people rate Adam Jones highly, and feel that Tillman over time will be an additional key acquisition. Keep in mind, scouts and even Roch think the M's offer is a good one.

Look, being a long time O's fan (since 1965) I too really like Bedard & Roberts. However, we have done nothing in FA over the last couple of years to make this team better. I truly believe when you look at Free Agency, you try to add a still young impact bat. I've been saying all along we should have added Carlos Lee last year. Had we done that, you change the dynamics of this team. However overpaying for mediocre FA's this year, still would not have gotten us out of 4th place.

Roch, there are "reports" that Jones has taken his physical. Can you find out if this is true?

CT - You are right, it was not an either - or. Palmeiro did not need to be protected.

You are also right, a team could have selected him in the middle of a multi-year contract for the purpose of trading him. And if no one takes him?

It is not automatic anyone would have and, as a player in a multi-year deal, Palmeiro had the right to demand he be traded. Bet he wouldn't?

This is not rotisserie baseball. The money being used is REAL money. A team already in debt is not going to take on the additional cost. You need to understand the economics of baseball as well as the logistics.

After the draft each team would have had a payroll around $15 million (remember this was 10 years ago). Adding Palmeiro would have made him 30% of his team's salary. No team, not even the PA miss-managed O's is going to take that risk.

But this is not just my opinion. Especially given the move cost the Orioles Al Leiter in his prime, the entirety of the MLB community is of this opinion this was a monumental mistake. Except Peter Angelos.

Not to dampen your enthusiasm, but keep in mind that Adam Jones is still learning the outfiield position. He came to the M's as a SS, but after signing Betancourt, he was moved to the OF to get him on the field. He is still learning, watch the clips of him getting turned around and miss judging routine plays. BUT, he is a stud, and will get better and better. Just don't be surprised when you see he is still on an OF learing curve. I for one will missing seeing him evolve.

Scott: Nothing confirmed so far, and there have been a few denials. Maybe the Orioles snuck him here in the back of a laundry truck.

As long as it wasn't a Mayflower truck, I think we'll all be ok with it.

I saw everone go to Orioles games this year and smoke on the concourse levels. Let's see if Mr. Asbestos/Smoking bans it there.

Scott - Please note the sidebar comments:
http://prospectinsider.com/

WHY IS THIS TAKING SO LONG

ROCH

WHY

Y IS FOR Y

I am trying to enjoy my Gin martini & all this noise about SHS is bumming me out. We all pick our poisons.

Hey Joe Camel, my ads were better! I got lots of guys to smoke, thinking they would get the babes with a fire burning inches from their noses. All you did was entice the kids to smoke. Shame on you & shame on the tobacco industry.

Multiple reports now that Jones passed his physical and the deal will be announced Monday. Finally, its over!!!!

Some keep saying its 6-for-2 now....Roch, did you hear anything about us trying to put Payton or Gibbons or a castoff in the deal?

Also hearing now that the Cubs are trying to incorporate Jason Marquis in a deal for Roberts if we want Pie. Marquis is owed 16 mil over the next 2 years, and was a mediocre NL pitcher as is, so he will get lit up at OPACY. Don't know if I'd do this one.

Who else is in the market for a 2B besides the Cubs?

Great show with Scott McGregor. He was part of the initial turn around for the Birds in their creative days. Paul Richards believed in stocking pitchers anyway he could get them.

Some really had arms. Many had no idea where the ball was going or who could catch it but it was fun.

My only concern about the present day O's is they are not fun to watch and that started with Dave Johnson. They won for him but they were not a good team to watch. Last years team was fun but injuries wore the team out and showed their farm system for what it truly was - zilch.

Leave Mr McPail alone he will get the job done. Sending Scotty to Aberdeen is a real step in the right direction - he can show the kids how to pitch correctly. His appearance on the "Hot Stove" show was information, humorous and exciting.
Bring him back again, soon.

Great show by the way.

Ray - The O's passed on the chance to sign a veteran closer. Several went elsewhere.

Meanwhile, I am still intrigued by Safarte. I do not know why his name does not come up at all.

If Sherrill is the setup man and Sarfate can close than Walker and Bradford can go back to their best role - the 6th & 7th innings.

The thing that messed the O's up so much last year was Baez being hurt and then Ray. Walker and Bradford were never intended to be used in the 8th or 9th so often and, if you look at their careers, Bradford never did well and Walker only sometimes did well in those situations.

I have been amused this week to see so many of the national media rewriting their stories because it was obvious, at least to me, that they had no idea what was really going on with the Bedard trade, or their sources were, to say the least, suspect. I think Roch has had the most level headed approach by far.

To Joyless,

You must be from Seattle and in love with your prospects. The O's should have started doing this 5 to 8 years ago. The reasons for this are contained in earlier posts by myself and numerous others.

Tom D,

I agree, why no mention of Safarte? I watched a few clips of him from last year and he has some serious gas. I know he might have control issues but that could be looked at in Spring Training. At least make him a cantidate.

And finally, when did this become a forum for the smoking/non-smoking debate? If I wanted to post about that I could surely find a better forum.

Tom D --

I'm not talking about the past, Tom. The "bloated contracts" of Payton, Gibbons, Mora, and Huff, as you accurately describe them, aren't Andy MacPhail' fault. You're absolutely right.

But let's keep things in perspective. For example, you mention that both Roberts and Bedard have said they'd prefer not to play on a rebuilding team. (In point of fact their personal preferences don't matter all that a great deal right now, because both are under contract for two years.)

Of course, much depends on how one define "rebuilding." Neither of them wants to play for a team that's being razed to the ground, which unfortunately seems to be MacPhail's Grand Design. Can't blame them for that, but, on the other hand, neither said they wouldn't play for the Orioles under the right circumstances.

As recently as the 26th the Sun cited the following from the O's ace:

"Let's just say that I wouldn't want to be in a rebuilding process, because by the time my contract ends, we're finally starting to get good," Bedard said. "That's the hard part of rebuilding. It takes a long time, and you need a lot of patience. It's not just me. I think everybody is [sick of losing] from the ground up."

However, Bedard said he is still open to discussing a contract extension, a departure from his viewpoint earlier this offseason, according to MacPhail.

"There's not an offer on the table," Bedard said. "They're playing it both ways. I don't know how they go about doing their business. It's none of my business, and I don't really care. But I would consider [an extension]. I've enjoyed my time in Baltimore. But everything would have to be right, and it would have to be for what I believe I'm worth."

("Agitated Bedard feeling unwanted" by Jeff Zrebiec. I'm not going to take the time to run down B-Rob's comments, save to say that they're similar enough to Erik's to be more or less redundant.)

Back to the point about "rebuilding." Bedard makes it clear that he doesn't want to be involved in a long drawn out process. But what it the Orioles got prospects for some or all the "bloated contracts" players you mentioned, the got a Mark Teixeira or someone of his stature in the off season. Along with the players acquired for Tejada, there's something to start with. (Not to mention that Weiters may be ready by then.)

Rebuilding that's already in high gear going into 2009 is a lot different than something that isn't going to bear any fruit until--no, not 2010--2012, maybe 2011 at the earliest.

Sure, you're going to hear high marks for Jones and Tillman; they may someday prove themselves in the majors and maybe even help the O's down the road. But whether they do or they don't, the Orioles pitching is going to be much poorer without an Erik Bedard, especially since he and Jeremy Guthrie have the potential to be a very strong 1-2.

Much the same can be said for Brian Roberts. How are the Orioles rebuilding if they trade away one of the best lead-off hitters in the game? And since Corey Patterson appears to be history, as well, where's the speed going to come from? Freddie Bynum? Perhaps, but does anyone seriously believe he's the long range answer or even that he'll hit well enough to lead off?

Since the O's without B-Rob or C-Pat wouldn't be an offense built around speed, then are they going to muscle up, because right now they're not going to frighten anyone with they're sluggers? Not likely.

The point is that with the players acquired for Miggy and Trachsel last year, the O's can at least compete in 2008 (though not contend) if they keep these vital parts in the puzzle in Erik and Brian (maybe resigning Corey, as well), and, in addition, make some decent free agent signings in the off season, the should be right in the mix for 2009.

If not, then the picture could be very bleak for another five years.

I may be one of the few that actually think the Orioles are correct in doing a thorough investigation before completing this trade, even if the process is embarassing. Now, I will be the first to tell you the Orioles have been outperformed both on the field and off it for along time, however a decision this important should be well planned and thought out first. We are talking about trading a franchise ace pitcher, one of only a handful that fit that description in all of baseball, for a RP and prospects. Yes, one of those prospects, Adam Jones, has major major potential, and, teaming with Markakis, could form a high powered offense, and a respectable defense for years to come. But, say in 2 years, his hip or a different ailment surfaces and shortens his career, one that could have been detected while conducting a physical, what will we have left to show for it? Who knows? A decision like this could potentially have ramifications far worse than 10 straight losing seasons. One wrong step,and we could be looking ahead to a generation of futility. I say, take your time McPhail, do your due diligence and make the Orioles a proud franchise again!

Satyr3206 -- You're dead wrong, as my later comments to Tom D. clearly show (typos aside). Trading Bedard (ditto Roberts) is not the way to go and while I greatly respect MacPhail's track record and lineage, I'm pretty sure that if he trades Erik, he'll live to rue the day and Angelos will rue the day he brought Andy it to be the new GM.

Incidentally, I've seen where the Indians are making overtures regarding the left hander, as well. At this point I'm cautiously optimistic that he's not going to be traded before the season starts, though nothing at all would surprise me after the soap opera that's developed.

(Memo to Andy: You came through like roses in the deals for Trachsel and Tejada, now don't mess things up by pushing your luck...put the receiver down and step away from the phone before somebody gets hurt. And if it rings, don't answer it! LOL)

Dennis Sarfate and Greogre Sherrill(assuming that we get him) are not talked about and dont get respect. Both can make in the 'pen. Sherrill as the closer and Sarfate as set-up. I really like this. And dont forget about Greg Aquino. It should look like this:
LR Brian Burres
MR Chad Bradford
MR Jamie Walker
MR Greg Aquino
MR Feranado Cabrera
SU Sarfate
CL Sherrill

Ray. I'm with you on wanting Payton gone by spring training and if he's included in the Bedard trade, it will take some of the sting away from losing a dominant pitcher.
With respect to the 30 yrs old brought in under McPhail's 'watch', Luke Scott is also 30. I note that he also invited older guys like Yan & Quiroz to spring training but I don't think(or hope!) that we'll see these types on our final '08 roster.
Hard to say if Tejada, Bedard and Roberts stay if they are younger. I still think we could have rebuilt even if we kept all 3 because you have to have something to build around. I realize you need young players with an upside but isn't that why we have minor leagues and scouts.
I see the rationale, however,for going the trade route but as I mentioned earlier, I'll have faith in the overall rebuild once I see more veterans moved.
Ken Francis. I agree with your line of thinking but once the O's dumped Tejada and now Bedard, there isn't any turning back now. Might as well unload everyone over 30 because without our best hitter and pitcher, we have't got a prayer of winning 70 games in '08. The situation will improve only if the players received from Houston & Seattle play key roles and I'm not betting that all will.

Thinking about the scouts comments, I am reminded of 1973, '77 and 1989.

After '72 the O's "retooled" by moving several vets and adding Bumbry, Coggins and others. Bill James, beginning his over-rated career, predicted a last place finish. The O's went to the ALCS.

'77 was the first full season for Tippy, Demper, Denny and Scotty and the new 3rd baseman, Eddie. The O's finished 2nd after being in 1st as late as the end of July.

'89, of course, is the legendary season for many of today’s fans. Otter saved 27 games, Ballard won 18. Essex's own DJ pitched so well we all forget he was only 4 - 7.

Granted, all of those teams also had a veteran presence (hmmmm....) that this one won't, but my point is sometimes "you never know."

I do not think MacPhail is going about this the right way, but that is all academic at this point. The debate on which direction is over. Bedard and Roberts will soon be ex-Orioles. As a fan I am going to root for the O's to do well no matter who owns them or what bad decisions the GM makes.

For what it's worth. Bowie stadium was the most pitcher friendly and hitter [ not friendly ] in the minors. Poor lighting. Maby Liz had an advantage there? Jeff F and Val M didn't hit well there. Liz was lights out there. So true stats from Bowie might be off. This coming season new and better lighting will be installed.

Someone here mentioned one cigar ruined Clinton... um, that got him into trouble. He always smoked cigars and ate fried/junk food.

I don't know if there is any nicotine in 2nd hand smoke but folks from my generation are familiar with the term "contact high".

Less than 2 weeks for pitchers and catchers. By the way, who's our closer?

Ken Francis - Some pointed and valid comments. I agree with you on a lot of what you said.

My question is, are you sure it is me you are responding to?

I am against trading either guy. But I am also saying the writing is on the wall. We cannot stop MacPhail from making trades, no matter how ill considered. Our hope now is that he gets enough in return. The Tejada deal, even if necessary, did not get enough in return (and I am also amazed at all of the people who are ready to enshrine all of the players we got in return - including the AA 3B in his 3rd organization in 4 months who couldn't beat Jabba the Hut in a 40 yard dash - in the Hall of Fame. None of them are all that...).

If Bedard and Roberts do not return more than Jones and a pitcher who projects as a #4 starter in the two trades the whole off season will be a grand frustrating failure.

how about bedard,roberts and bradfrd for pie-cf,murton-lf,rich hill=lhp and ronny cedeno-ss and sign tony clark-1b and kyle lohse-rho release gibbons and trade d.cabreara and ramon hernandez before the 7/31 trade deadline give patton,albers,bierd and mccrory a chance out of the bullpen,please fire terry crowley,larry mccall and bring in don baylor and dave stewart.fire mike flanagan and hire paul blair as asst.gm

Clinton may have been misunderstood. He made the best, healthy use of a cigar. Maybe he needs to introduce Hillary to them.

Tom D -

In 77, Eddie came up as a first basemen, not 3rd.

Sheets: The Principal's Office analogy was all wrong???? Every time I was in trouble with the principal it was because one person "told on me" and "spilled the beans"...You mention this high level of integrity that Roberts has displayed relative to the other Mitchell Juicers...Integrity is coming clean on your own, without being asked...Integrity is releasing an apology in 2005 when it was already blatantly obvious that baseball had a big problem...Integrity is taking a stand against PEDs before the Mitchell Report even names you...Integrity does not require incriminating evidence before moving on and doing the right thing...Integrity would be Brian Roberts coming out immediately following this "tramatic" experience where he figured out right when the needle hit his a$$ that this "was not for him" and "this was beneath him"...Integrity is choosing not to cheat, even when everyone around you is cheating, making the All-Star team, setting career highs, and signing lucrative contracts...He says he knew right away that he had made a huge mistake right??? So the best way to display a high level of integrity is to wait until late 2007 to come clean???

Sorry Sheets...NONE of the players named in the Mitchell Report have any integrity, or they wouldn't be linked with this garbage to begin with...

Also, you asked who my favorite player was...

My favorite player is Felix Pie...I've followed him closely since he was 17...He's one of the top 10 defensive Center Fielders in ALL of baseball and one of its best raw atheletes...and the O's don't deserve him unless he was part of a deal that brought Bedard and the Juicer (with the high level of integrity)...The only reason Chicago is even talking to Baltimore about Roberts is because they don't want 35 HRs and 70 RBIs out of the leadoff spot this year, and Roberts happens to play the position that the Cubs need most...I'm just reading these pages to make sure that Hendry isn't planning on giving up the Cubs CF for the next 6 years, and possibly its most promising young Lefty in Rich Hill, for a 30-something middle infielder with some speed, who can swith-hit...

Ken,

Okay lets assume we don't trade them. In 2 years they will leave for free agency and we will have only the draft picks to show for it. Which will set back the rebuilding of the team by years because the O's won't have the players from the trades.

If you think Angelos will pay the piper to keep them please show me the last big money, impact signing the Orioles made?

You might also want to look at some other teams that have rebuilt and have done pretty well. The Marlins, D'Backs, Oakland, Minnesota, Milwaukee, and the perpetually re tooling Braves. It is possible to completely reshape your team and be competitive in a few years.

The only thing Orioles fans rue right now is the day Angelos bought the team.

Good column from the Seattle Times about the haul the O's would get ... if they can ever make this deal happen. It's not just Seattle fans who like what the O's are getting - it's scouts and other insiders as well:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/larrystone/2004161041_stone03.html

Good point Herbie-- looking forward to seeing some well-pitched games down in PG county thanks to MacPhail and company. That is if the marathon trade ever gets done! Will Pieper announce the deal during the halftime show? If so maybe we'll get some shots of Bedard tearing up because he'll miss the great city and fans of Baltimore. ;) Yeah, I doubt it too. Has anyone checked to see if he is just weraing a mask with lizard-skin underneath like on the series "V"?

I will miss his curveball though. Despite his surliness, I will still root for him in Seattle. This is not even close to a Mussina situation (though to be fair the FO bungled that as well). Bon voyage EriK.

Adam H - OK, you're a Pie fan. No shame in that, and I fully understand why you wouldn't want to trade him for Roberts. You should note, though, that I didn't state I thought Roberts had the highest integrity in the game. He disappointed me and a lot of other fans terribly. My point was mainly that he didn't have to confess anything but did, and there are lots of players not in the Mitchell Report who likely did worse. He can still have some integrity even if he's in the Report; he's human, just like you are despite all those principal office visits (I'm not really comparing the two, it's a joke with just a hint of truth to it).

Don't underestimate how good of a player he is, either. The way he plays the game tells me he's one of the smartest and grittiest guys out there. That was my point about his 2005 season, which you implicitly dismissed as due to steroids. Roberts knew he'd get fastball strikes, and even major league players without stereotypical power can post decent HR totals if they can work the count and get the fastball they are looking for. I wouldn't trade him straight for Pie, but I respect your opinion that you wouldn't give up Pie for Roberts.

Hey Roch:

It's Sunday (granted it's Super Bowl Sunday), but we haven't heard from you since Friday!

If I keep checking the internet for the trade, I'll lose my job soon. Any new developments over the weekend? Can you throw us a bone? ha ha.

TomD -- Seriously, which would you rather have: a rebuilding team that still maintained a "veteran presence" or "you never know"? (You don't need to answer, as I'm sure we're on the same page here.) I'm not as sure as you that both Bedard and Roberts are going to be ex-Orioles anytime soon, but like you I'll be an O's fan regardless--as difficult as that may be for me to stomach. Should MacPhail pull the trigger on those deals, I'd like nothing better than to be proven wrong, though I'd rather there not be the need to find out.

TerryP -- Well, Bedard isn't gone yet. You mentioned dumping everyone over 30 (can't trust 'em--LOL; relievers excepted, of course), which isn't a bad idea, but I think MacPhail should be saying to potential suitors for Erik and/or B-Rob, "Hey, we're not rushing to dump him. If you want him that badly, then you'll need to take ["over 30" name] along with him."

Satyr3206 -- I agree that it's possible to totally revamp a team and be competitive, but it's not the only way to do it. If the O's choose to, Bedard and Roberts will be around for another year or two, depending on what the club wants. My point remains, there is absolutely no need for desperation or urgency to get rid of either of them at this point, because there will still be plenty of interested teams later on, should it get to that. But these two guys, along with Markakis and someone others (such as Guthrie, Wieters, Rowell, and perhaps even D-Cab--hey, I can hope!), should be building blocks in making a winning team. As I stated, if the Orioles can get Mark Teixeira or someone of his caliber to provide some punch in the lineup, then the team's really not that far away (I'm sure B-Rob and Bedard would want to be in THAT kind of rebuilding), but if they dump two of their brightest stars, then the O's back at square one with a lineup of prospects -- TomD's "you never know." (Personally, I think if you look at the nice set of players acquired for Tejada and Trachsel, along with a farm system that already has benefited from some quality drafts in recent years, you'll see plenty of reason for hope without trading Bedard or Roberts.)

Curiously and ironically, by not locking his young All-Stars up to contract extensions, MacPhail is in part following the failed blueprint of his predecessors. The Orioles not resigning key players in their prime (such as Mike Mussina) when they had a chance contributed to the ten-year slide as much as signing overpriced, over-the-hill vets and not developing enough solid prospects. So how is it how that getting rid of young, hard-to-replace, widely coveted talent is now seen to be a step forward?

Roch -

Do you have any idea what the current hold-up to the Jones/Bedard trade is? Are we going to see this trade happen this year?

This is why I truly appreciated John Schuerholz as a GM. You never heard about the trade until it was made. The Orioles look like incompetent baboons (and I apologize to all baboons) in this deal. We even have other GM's telling us to make this deal. Signing Bedard won't even help us in the short term, as we need CF and bullpen help. Guess what this trade gives us? Both!

Tmac speaking of baboons . . . it was the Mariners whose big fat mouths were shot off in this trade when they prematurely told Jones who ran to the closest writer. So while I know it must make you feel soooo good to post a knee jerk post blaming the Orioles, next time check with your simian ancestors. It doesnt matter at all when this trade happens if it happens and if it doesnt happen, the delay has been a godsend keeping us from our usual path of overpaying some marginal stopgap to fill a hole

You dont get extra points for completing the trade early except from the same know nothing fans.who scream for the team to do something, anything or give their opinions of prospects theyhave never seen play.