It's about time we started hearing some outsider's view of the O's minor league system and current 'young' talent..I'd especially like to hear more from the guy who's running things these days, but perhaps we'll let his actions speak for him...As far as I'm concerned, you just can't chase people out of that broken down house fast enough. Maybe not being at all competitive, even at the minor league level, for the past 10 years may mean something after all...like what a rotten job this team has done projecting players, drafting talent and then developing any of the players with any talent to the point of actually getting to the major leagues. Isn't that the idea? The next to go has to be the architect of this fiasco for the last few years.

The fact that he called him a "decent" right fielder makes his opinion irrelevant to me....

I agree that Bill James badly underestimates Nick Markakis defensively. But as someone who dates to the classic Bill James Baseball Abstracts of the 1980s (I couldn't wait each year for the new one ...), when Bill James talks, I listen. And it doesn't sound very good for the O's long-term prospects.

Roch....After the ballgame last night, I saw a blurb on Fox45 sports, that said the Orioles made a decision on one of there pitchers....

Would that have been Kris Benson?? I see nothing on the net anywhere...

Maybe Bill James is right on in being honest in the talent we have, besdies Rowell/Wieters what position players do we really have that could make an impact in the next couple of years....

Mostly pitchers...

I don't follow the minor leagues very closely so can't comment on James' remarks about where the Orioles system ranks compared to other teams, but his remarks about the big league club certainly seem fair enough. This is, basically, an old club. That's one of the many problems Andy MacPhail faces as he tries to bring the club back to respectability. It's going to be a L-O-N-G haul, especially if the minors are as depleted as is suggested here.

You must excuse Bill James, though a great writer, he is considered blind. He has written various times how his parents were imprisoned by the Greeks during WW2. So you must excuse his comments about Nick.

James is usually pretty hard to refute, except in areas where stats aren't as much help. Markakis to my mind is an outstanding RFer.

He is still not as good as he is going to get. I think he felt pressure to be the big run producer this season, feeling that a walk was basically not getting the job done, and so he was less selective than he would have been ordinarily. He has a great eye, and he should be getting on base 40 per cent of the time year after year. In the end being selective will make him a better hittter and more productive player.

His stroke does remind me of Billy Williams.

I hope there are still some teams out there who agree with James on Cabrera's potential and are willing to give up quality to get him this winter. He is the Bobby Witt of this decade.

Roch, the left side labrum injury is what puzzles me about the decision to move Snyder off catcher. He would be much more valuable at that position, if not for the Orioles then with somebody else via a trade.
.
I had forgotten, he switched between SS and C in HS until the end of his senior year.

If James is going to dismiss Bedard, shouldn't he just come right out and say he's evaluating the top young players age 27 and younger? I assume he had Chris Ray ranked above Papelbon, since Ray is two years younger.

Well, one who is hopefully soon to be on that "Young Talent Inventory " (Wieters) had a great game today - he went 4 for 5, with 2 doubles, a homer, 3RBIs & 3 runs scored - he's now hitting .317. Snyder didn't do too bad either - 4 for 5 also with 3 RBIs & 3 runs scored - his average is now up to .407.

Oh, and I 100% agree with you Roch - Markakis is way more than "a decent right fielder."

I'm sure the remark about Markakis merely being a "decent" fielder was based on observations from last year and perhaps early 2007. Anyone who's read one of James' books know what obsessively involved affairs they are, so it's all but certain he didn't see him this year.

I'd love to know the 15 players he rates better than Nick. Again, that was based primarily on '06, so it doesn't account for Markakis' leap forward this year. I seriously doubt that there really are 15 better than Nick now.

Bedard not Grade A? Suuure, Bill, anything you say. (Yes, Erik's 28 but if he stays healthy and if '07 wasn't a fluke, under the right set of circumstances--presumably not Baltimore, alas--he could win 20+ games a season for the next decade, no sweat.)

Some of the comments made about Etchebarren were uncalled for. Yes, he had a losing record as a minor league manager, but just who was he managing? Answer: The same players that his critics here are always ragging on as not being quality prospects, that's who. In his last three seasons, all with the IronBirds, his ended up 104-124, which, while not great, still is respectable considering who he had to work with.

Whether he should be managing is open to debate, but to kick him out of the organization like that without offering another position is just wrong. He's a link to when the team did things the right way. (Oh, and by the way, Trembley also had a losing record as a minor league manager.)

Adam Loewen seems to be the forgetten guy here, don't you think?

Here's my sleeper, though...Luis Hernandez. He'll be a ten year major leaguer. He can pick it at SS and he hits enough to keep his glove in the line-up.

Luis Hernandez to SS, Miguel Tejada to 3B and Melvin Mora to LF in 2008, please.

Big day for Wieters and Snyder in Hawaii.

Wieters - 4 for 5 (HR, 2 2B), with 3 RBI, and 3 runs scored. First pro HR.

Snyder - 4 for 5 (3B, 2B), with 3 RBI, and 3 runs scored .

Snyder is now hitting .407.

WOW....just saw this article on CNN SI....

Not that is has anything to do with the recent blogs....but...

Baltimore is not in the Top 10 of cities in a Sports Slump...which really shocked me....

S is for SUPRISED!!

I'd have to agree with James on everything he writes except his underestimation of Markakis's fielding ability. The fact is, our "young talent" isn't very talented at all. And neither is our old talent. Most of our veteren starters last year would be bench players on a good team (Millar, Payton, Mora).

Markakis is great, though, as is Bedard. I think it's time to trade Cabrera and I look forward to seeing Guthrie in his second year.

How many 23 year olds drive in 112 runs - maybe cabrera in Florida? You look at all the pub someone like Elsberry gets, and he is actually a year older than markakis and really has done little on the big league level as yet. I think winning has a lot to do with the overall perception of a player.

James comments are not a reflection on the Minor Leagues. They are a reflection on young MAJOR LEAGUE talent. In terms of minor leagues, O's are probably somewhere right in the middle, like 14-18. It is true that the young talent is sparse at the big league level, but the minors have improved greatly the past 4-5 years.

Shooting the messenger again -- if any outside writer says anything negative about the O's, even though we've just experienced their 10th consecutive losing season -- we have to attack them like Bill O'Reilly. And I mean JUST like Bill O'Reilly, going for a minor point (like Markakis' defense) and saying that that somehow invalidates the main argument.

Markakis is a decent right fielder. He ain't Ichiro. And that's not a personal insult.

This guy must be going senile if he thinks Markakis is just decent and Bedard isn't grade A. Everyone is entitled to their opinion but this chucklehead needs to hit the retirement home. Just another moron piling on.

x is for x ray Bill James head.

Roch,

On ESPN Classics they have some of the old Orioles world series games. Right now its game 5 of 69 series and McNally just hit a HR.
The play prior wouldn't happen nowadays. Belanger hit a single and rounded first, Swoboda in RF charged it and threw behind Belanger to the catcher who ran down to first. Belanger war barely safe. How often does Hernandez hustle down to first?
Anyhow lots of good memories of when I was growing up.

Rich

Roch, these snippets of information need to be presented with some context.

Except for his personal comments (which are often idiosyncratic) James bases his rankings on stats, mainly on "runs created" which works out how many runs a team would score over the course of a season if the player in question could take every at-bat in the season. Yes there are ways of figuring this out, and it's a good way to isolate who is really productive and who isn't.

I am sure that the book uses 2007 stats. It is easy to plug in the final numbers after the regular season ends. I imagine that's why Ray is not on the list but Guthrie is.

RBI is not a stat that the serious statisticians look at in terms of measuring the value of a player against other players. It depends on too many factors apart from the player's actual talent.

Also James isn't saying that Bedard isn't a Grade A pitcher. He is talking about being a top pitcher while still young. Bedard is a top pitcher, but at age 28 he isn't really young anymore.

This matters more in projecting what the rest of a player's career will look like rather than what he is going to do in the next couple of years. At age 28, Bedard is in his prime and should have his best seasons during the next 4-5 years assuming he stays healthy. But if he had been 24 this season he would be even more valuable than he is now.

I suggest reading the book before going ballistic. James is a smart guy who has changed the game of baseball. Some very successful teams have been built on his ideas, and the "stat-head" way of looking at things is becoming more influential all the time. Had the Orioles followed these principles, they would have had far fewer ridiculously expensive FA failures, and I'm quite sure that the last 10 years wouldn't have been so dismal.

But with the comment about Markakis's fielding he obviously has his head stuck where the sun don't shine.

Bill James is 6 of the 10 most overrated people involved in baseball. He is too impressed with himself to even notice what he is saying.

He might have some great stats that can add to the understanding of the game but has no clue how to apply them and his opinions are worthless.

I remember him saying the O's sucked year after year when Weaver was manager and they either won the division or finished 2nd each year.

Bill James wouldn't know baseball talent if it walked up and hit him on his swelled head.

Even if it was Snyder's left shoulder, the mechanics of throwing from catcher involves both shoulders and arms.

Throwing from the catcher's crouch is not like throwing from the mound or field. The catcher has to generate all of his own power.

The real concern is how the shoulder affects his power swing.

PhilF -- James must have done literally nothing this summer but follow games and write this book (at 512 pages, quite a feat), because the blurb for it states: "This book contains a myriad of stats on every hit, pitch and catch in Major League Baseball's 2007 season."

All I can say is he clearly wasn't watching very closely what Markakis was doing in the field if he makes such a ridiculous comment. Nick made many outstanding, Web Gem type plays. Stupid remark by a smart baseball guy. (Tom D -- I agree with you about James making some boneheaded statements about the Orioles when they were good. He definitely has his biases.)

Obiviously, Bedard would have more value if he was 24, but unless Roch misquoted James, he did indeed say Bedard wasn't a "Grade-A young player." He's talented enough and still young enough to fashion for himself a Hall of Fame career. I'm not saying he will, necessarily, but that it's not too late to put up those kind of numbers.

To do so, he'll need to pitch into his forties and be lucky when it comes to staying healthy. HoF not likely, true, but not out of the question, either.

Roch,

For all the fuss about the Colts getting stolen overnight in 1984...how come no one ever throws a fit over the ORIGINAL Baltimore baseball franchise?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/

Just a passing thought to stir the pot regarding something other than this team's misery.

Bill James released his first nationally published Baseball Abstract after the 1981 season. Earl Weaver retired after the 1982 season. He came back later, but the O's did suck those years. So I'm not sure when exactly that "year after year" thing that Tom D's talking about is supposed to have happened.

This is probably what he's talking about, although he's of couse gotten most of the facts wrong - after the 1982 season, James predicted a collapse was coming for the Orioles, either next year or the year after. The Orioles won the World Series in 1983, and collapsed the year after.

Also, I think James tends to use 'decent' as meaning slightly above average, so I don't know if I'd get all upset about Markakis's fielding.

With the baseball season likely wrapping up tonight perhaps it is a wise idea to begin to focus on possible college football bowl game matchups.

We all have our favorites, but I think everyone will most certainly pull for a Southern Cal-South Carolina contest.

Why, you ask? A QB contest without equal!

John David Booty will recover from his injury to lead the Trojans, and the Gamecocks will look to Chris Smelley to lead them to victory.

Hence, the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to witness a Smelley-Booty competition on national televiion

GO TEAM GO!

James's full quote about Bedard as reported by Roch was "but not a Grade-A young player because he is 28."

This obviously means his age is the problem, not his talent level.

I'm sure the FO has their own list, but here are the five things I'd like to see in 2008 in no particular order:

1) The pitching staff issues at least 30% fewer walks.

2) At least 3 players end the first half with 13 HRs and 45 RBI. For the year--4 guys at 25 HR, 85 RBI. That is not rediculous but it probably won't happen.

3) Pitchers field their position which means ending up facing home plate in a position to make a play on a ball that is hit back to the mound.

4) A closer emerges to take Ray's place. Ray then returns in '09 to become a solid set-up option.

5) The O's finish .500 or better during inter-league play.

**bonus**
No national scandals that bring additional shame to the franchise.

What are our chances of getting AROD

Jay... The Chances of the Orioles getting A-Rod are about the same as the Ravens signing Peyton Manning!
Though the O's have the money...

TS - a little research will help you out - your dates or recollection are off.

"An aspiring writer and obsessive fan, James began writing baseball articles after leaving the United States Army in his mid-twenties. Many of his first baseball writings came while he was doing night shifts as a security guard. Unlike most writers, his pieces did not recount games in epic terms or offer insights gleaned from interviews with players. A typical James piece posed a question (e.g., "Which pitchers and catchers allow runners to steal the most bases?"), and then presented data and analysis written in a lively, insightful, and witty style, that answered the question.

Editors considered James' pieces so unusual that few believed them suitable for their readers. In an effort to reach a wider audience, James self-published an annual book titled The Bill James Baseball Abstract beginning in 1977. The first edition of the book presented 80 pages of in-depth statistics compiled from James' study of box scores from the preceding season."

Please note the time frames. His bio says he left the army in 1973. He was nationally know and a fearless prognosticator before 1977.

This is probably futile, but as I said, the Baseball Abstract was first nationally published in 1982, and dealt with the 1981 season. Prior to that, James self-published the book, and probably sold less than 1,000 copies a year. I never read any of the pre-82 books (and neither has Tom D) but I seriously doubt he was all that critical of the O's in those years. He routinely called Weaver a genius, and his criticisms of the O's, when they eventually came, had to do with aging players, which wasn't an issue in 77-81.

That was my last post on this topic.