I agree about Tejada. He should be traded, but only if the right deal arises. Now that Renteria is off the market, Tejada's value probably got a little bump. But anything less than a top ML ready prospect or 2 very good ML ready prospects is unacceptable.

In regards to Bedard, the O's should offer him a generous (5 years for 80-100?)extension this offseason. If he doesn't want to sign, trade him. It would be great to have an ace like him for the next 5-7 years, but an ace like him for the next 2 years won't change anything. Trade him now while his value is peak, and you will be looking at a sweet package of players, as opposed to a couple of draft picks in 2010 if he makes it to free agency. It would be tough to just get rid of him, but if he doesn't want to play here, then he needs to go.

KG: Great post!

I love 'Road House' and I don't know why. I think the best line is when Tinker says, "Polar bear fell on me."

Hey Roch ~ when will the Os post their 2008 schedule? I believe other teams have already posted theirs.

JPA: We’re doing a great job at the 5 inning starters, aren’t we? What’s our operating philosophy—how many pitches, walks and runs can you give up in 5 innings? It’s a great way of keeping down payroll; nuisance efficient pitchers like Bedard who throw 100 pitches in 7 innings end up performing too well and costing too much. In August and September, we got a good look at our 2 and 3 inning starters. The philosophy there is, how soon can you get knocked out of the game? I don’t think we’re doing so good developing the mediocre DHs—that’s where we dip into free agency to fill that need.

Baylor lately has been on the bench for MASN, as the backup analyst for the Nationals pregame shows, and let's just say I think he'd make a great bench coach.

Sadly Roch, I think that present-day Torrez and Mitchell would still have a fair shot at making our rotation.

I guess the question with Bedard is, do the O’s make a realistic offer (KG’s suggestion of $16 to $20 million a season is realistic), do they make a below market offer that everyone knows Bedard will reject trying to save face when he tells them to take a hike, do they just trade him without making an offer, saying that they he would never sign here no matter what they offered, or do they do nothing?

What they do with Bedard may signal whether or not the front office has changed any. Making him a below market offer that everyone knows he will reject or doing nothing would seem to suggest that Angelos is still calling the shots; not paying a pitcher what he’s worth on the open market and using a calculated face-saving strategy to say, hey we tried he just didn’t want to play here, and inaction are his hallmarks.

Making him a realistic offer and having him turn it down would be a bitter one to swallow, but it might indicate that at least the O’s are trying to hold on to their best talent. Bedard stepped up as an ace this season (and many here, including myself, doubted whether he was ace material) and filled the role that Mike Mussina vacated after 2000, and they’d be foolish to let him slip away without a serious effort to sign him. As has been said many times, they’ve waited too long to try to extend him, and personally, I don’t think he will be an Oriole beyond 2009. But they can still attempt to correct that mistake.

I like Tejada. He's a real baseball player so if he's not happy here trade him to a winning team. We owe him that much, but we need equal talent in return. If he is traded, I wouln't mind putting Luis Hernandez at short.

Bedard for Tex, Jurrjens, and Jordan Schafer, with a window of time to sign Teixeria.

Roch is right -- the O's are a fourth-place team with him right now, and that isn't likely to change in the next two years without major renewal. Also injury is always a consideration with pitchers. You never know when he might lose all his value.

In 12 months he will not bring as much as he brings now. In 18 months, even less. Do it now.

On the Red Sox -- in the space of a few years they have brought along Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youkilis, Papelbon, Lester, and Bucholz. That's really scary and also depressing.

I notice that their 20 YO SS Argenis Diaz is going crazy in Hawaii... 1.0-something OPS. He isn't even among Boston's top 20 prospects. If the O's had an Class A SS doing that, we would be going nuts.

We are not even close to competing at that level, and holding on to Bedard while waiting for it to happen is not very realistic.

Not to mention holding on to Tejada.

LaTroy Hawkins's gripe about "negativity" in the Orioles clubhouse brought both Tejada and Bedard to mind. Neither one appears to particularly want to be an Oriole. Perhaps shipping them out will lift some of the locker room gloom. It pains me to say that about Bedard, however. The guy was so amazing last year. I'd much rather sign him to a multi-year deal, but only if he'd truly want to be here. Tejada must go, though. Now is the time.

We should do all that is possible to sign Bedard. No only is he an Ace, but he is (IMO) a top 3 pitcher in baseball (Becket and Santana) . Having someone like him for the next 5-6 years would be great. However, if he does not want to stay, his trade value is at its peak right now and The O's could get quite a bit for him.

As far as starting pitching goes, the O's only contend for a World Series Championship if they go out and get a number one starter while keeping the core starters they already have. This is probably not possible. With a quality number one starter, (Santana, Oswalt, etc.), they then have Bedard, Gutherie, Loewen and Cabrera finishing out the rotation. That grouping of arms can win.

Trade Bedard. There's something about that guy that I don't like. His general demeanor and his abandonment of the team at the end of the season (unlike Guthrie) tells me that he belongs somewhere else. As a practical matter, his trade value will never be higher. Move him before his attitude and health become an issue with other clubs.

I was recently thinking of the NL manager retread who got hired by an AL team in 1995. The NY Post had a headline, I think, "Joe who?" He went on to have 12 years of success with the Yankees. I wonder if Francona's career will be roughly the same with the Red Sox.

Bedard's history of minor injury scares me a little. With any pitcher, there is always the possibility that something goes pop, and that's it... When it goes pop on a guy who may be owed $60MM or more, that's a huge loss.

In a perfect world, with cash to burn, sure. In the real world, outside NY and Boston, I would rather throw that money at a stud position player whose production will be somewhat predictable, and keep bunches of young arms in development.

With regard to Tejada, I've already stated the idea that we should try to trade him for Angels prospect Brandon Wodd (infielder that can play SS) and Erving Santana (promising young starter whose rough 2007 lowered his value).

With regard to Bedard (excuse the rhyme), I agree with the posters that say we should make every effort to extend him now. However, if it becomes clear that this is impossible, then we should test the market and see if we can strike a good deal. But that's getting ahead of ourselves. Please, let's try to keep him in Baltimore for a very long time first.

On another note, who are the Orioles planning on putting in CF next year? Anyone? That's a big, gaping hole that needs to be filled. As good as Markakis is, I don't think he can cover two slots at once!

Honestly, I can't imagine any O's fan really wanting to trade Bedard. He is unquestionably a #1. How much fun could it have been to pitch for this team these past few. What has made anyone excited to be here and we lambast guys for just going out and playing.

Moe.... Now all we need is Larry and Curley and we'll be set for 08.... wait, we already have Curley Flanagan so that just leaves Larry.

Phil F and others who are in a rush to trade Bedard,

1. He will turn 28 at the beginning of the season, not 34 or 38, and the Os have him, contractually for 2 more years. If the Os are trying to build a team around pitching and defense, and you have a 28-year-old who was without question one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, you only trade him as an act of LAST RESORT, not out of fear that you MIGHT not be able to sign him.

2. You have no earthly idea whether his trade value is "more now than it will ever be." What if he has a 2008 that is at least as good as 2007? Then what would his trade value be in late July or next November? I'd say the chances are excellent for Bedard having another all-star caliber year.

3. Apparently some bloggers don't care for his personality because he believes he functions best when he stays subdued and doesn't bounce around in the locker room or yuk it up for the sports media. Would it make him a better member of the Os rotation if he acted like Millar? And by the way, how Millar's personality struck you the last week or so? Still like his "chemistry?" And leaping to the conclusion that some vague, veiled remark by LaTroy Hawkins was referring to Eric Bedard, rather than any one of 10 other guys in the locker room, is really grasping at straws to put the blame for the Os record on the "attitude" of players that you don't even have direct knowledge about.

The Os will improve when they add to the number of young, talented players like Bedard who perform that well when they are on the field. He is now a proven, major league pitcher of the first order, just coming into the prime of his career. It would be foolish... no, it would be boneheaded to trade him unless EVERY avenue had been exhausted to sign him to a contract at a price that not only is fair, but might even be considered "overpaying" a little.

Players such as Tejada, on the other hand, who are showing real signs of diminishing skills, should be dealt now, to a contending team that sees him as a final piece of the puzzle, and are in a position to give young talent in return.

Dan C,s column today, maybe there's something here. Signing Bedard to a long contract is a beginning.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-sp.series30oct30,0,6606716.story

We need a good closer, preferably young. without one it's 7 or 8 innings of work down the drain. Again and again and again.

You know, the demeanor question reminds me of a quote in "Bull Durham" that goes something like this: "When you 20 games in the show, you can wear these and the press will think you're colorful. Until then, however, it means that you're a slob!".

Everyone's attitude on the team will get better if we starting winning. I think the way to do that is to start over and trade some of our veterans for good prospects. We have to be really smart about these trades - we can't afford to have them end up like the Sidney Ponson trade to SF did.

I like Bedard a lot, but I think we could trade him and get some really good prospects (both hitting and pitching) for him. I love the K's (who doesn't?), but I think he's lacking a bulldog-type demeanor that I normally associate with a #1 starter.

I would target teams that are in need of pitching (all) and teams that have big-time farm systems. Would Detroit give up Granderson, Andrew Miller and Zumaya for him? Would Cincy give up Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce? Would L.A. give up Kemp, Loney and Broxton? Would the L.A. Angels give up Adenhart, Wood and Shields? If the answer is "yes" to any of these, I think we ought to pull the trigger and trade Bedard.

There's nothing like Patrick Swayze ripping some other guys throat out.

I'm a sucker for nostalgia, but former Orioles may not have all the right answers. Let's get coaches in here that want to help and teach the right way. Let's get a team full of Jeremy Guthries and roll into 2008 guns blazing.

CRB makes a critical observation about the Bedard situation. Not only does the FO have to be intelligent about the long-term decision, but they also have to handle the "process" well to let other teams know we have turned over a new leaf in our approach to player and organizational negotiations. If extensive conversations reveal that he will not resign, then act decisively and DO NOT offer him a dime, let alone an undervalued contract. Simply work the best deal out there because there will be many of them. The "saving face" approach only ends up embarassing everyone in the end.

Get it done and don't apologize. Explain to the fans that your approach was the best long-term solution, have facts and evidence to support it, and let the fans who disagree deal with it. The lying, BS, and incompetence needs to be put behind us. That's a start. Ironically, that would show players like Bedard we meant business (but he would then be gone). That having been said, if you can lock him up for 6-7 years, do it. But the chance to get a couple of dynamic young position players in return is awfully tempting for a team that is lacking in so many areas.

That means of course being bad for a couple of years but most of us agree that even with Bedard we don't get "there". So be it. I'll watch Markakis, Roberts, and some young guys if they play hard every night. Too bad Tejada, Hernandez, and Mora seem to be pouting all of the time because in reality they are all decent ballplayers.

"z" just one?

EJ,

I actually agree with most of what you say.

I expect that he will be at least as good in 08 as in 07. However, the reason he will not be worth more this time next year is that he will have just one season left on his contract, not two. For a contending team that's two years to work out a deal, and two years of great pitching. At one year he is just a rental, and everybody knows it. Big difference.

Also, the Orioles have not yet gotten 200 innings out of him in a season. At $100MM you are basically betting the future of the franchise on a guy who has had at least two significant injuries in the past four years.

And BTW his value next winter goes down even more if he is injured again at some point in 08.

T-Mac,
The answer is a very loud NO to any of those trades. And you wouldn't make the deal either, if you were the GM of the the Reds, Tigers, Dodgers or Angels. Bedard is not going to return 3 young stars, or the top 3 young players in anyone's organization.

You are not being realistic about the trade. More likely, a Bedard trade would mean giving up great young talent for a young starting player and a prospect who both have very good potential.
And even that seems like a questionable roll of the dice.

And if you don't like Bedard as your #1 starter, how about as a #2 in a year or two, after you've acquired or developed a #1 who is the kind of "bulldog" with great stuff that you are seeking? Wouldn't you like to have Bedard at the top of your rotation as a 1 or a 2 for the next five years?

I'll be severely disappointed in MacPhail if one of his moves this winter is to trade Bedard. He should be focusing on 4 or 5 others.

Bedard's Injury history:

2003-- ligament replacement surgery, missed nearly entire season;

2005-- strained left knee, won 1 of his last 15 starts and missed last two months;

2007-- strained oblique, missed last six weeks.

Basically three season-ending injuries out of the past five years.

Hayden Penn bombed in his first start in the Arizona league, but since that 1 inning warm-up he has been getting back to the pitcher we all have been wanting to see. This is his line from yesterday's game.

Penn 3.2 2 1 0 1 3 0 8.38

The problem with a lot of the Dedard pro/cons is that they ignore what Bedard might want to do. Bedard is going to take the most money offered for the most attractive place to play. Do you honestly want to see the Orioles offer him as much as 20 million a year to stay here for 5 years? I like watching him pitch, but say you make him a huge offer that he takes and a fifth or more of your payroll is dedicated to one player. That ends serious rebuilding talk, because you've decided to overpay (and yes, until he shows that he can go a whole season and eat innings it is currently overpaying) one player whent you could use the money to for players throughout the organization or in the bullpen.

The idea that the only way that the Front Office can prove that they have changed is to offer Bedard a ton of money is ridiculous. If they made such an offer and he rejected it, you'd be the first to write that it's proof that the front office has not changed -- people don't want to play for them when they made an offer.

So if Girardi's Yanks finish 79 - 83 will everyone call it an improvement? It is better finish than his career managerial record.

The O's have proved that if you put a good enough team on the field any idiot could manage them to the series (Altobelli). They also proved that even with a good team a bad manager will cost you games (Miller).

It will be tough for Girardi to do bad in NY but it will be very hard for him to do well.

He has 2 strikes against him: 1) He is being hired as the savior to rescue the team from the funk Torre is supposed to have brought them to. Torre has been to the Post Season 12 straight seasons. The only way Girardi can improve on that is to win the Series. With ARod launching ABombs somewhere else and no Rivera to close the deal, he is already running uphill.

2) He was hired against the desire of the entire Steinbrenner family. Even Tabby the cat wanted Mattingly. How much tolerance is there going to be? Where Torre could start 2 - 48 and still and still be safe, Girardi is going to have a very short leash.

On the other hand, the Steibrenner/Martin dust-ups used to be great fun. It looks like the NY media finally got something to chew on.

You raven fans should go read M Wilbon's column in today's Wash Post. I am not a big Wilbon fan, he is always Chicago this , Chicago that , BUT he makes some good pts in today's article & references the ravens.
I don't agree on taking a cheap shot at Brady, only because it would bring on on our QB probably too. BUT I do agree they should have busted someone in the mouth semi cleanly, but that isn't the Gibbs way... he wants choirboys not thugs.... sometimes I wish the Skins had just a couple thugs for days like last Sunday. I'll be a huge Raven fan Dec 3rd.

Don't count me as a Baylor backer, one big reason why.... he is a heartbeat away from being the Mgr if Trembley gets axed & I don't think he would be a good Mgr here. A Coach OK, but not the Mgr.

Who touched on the Girardi reactions issue earlier.... I know I saw it somewhere Roch.... :-)

U can thank Mr Tight Pockets in the law office for us not having Bedard $igned now & later... case closed, don't even need a jury trial. It grates on the more astute fans too.

Tejada seems to be a great teammate & leader...when the team is winning & things are going good, end of story. I hesitate to use the word frontrunner , but it almost applies, that's my opinion from the cheap seats.
IF they can find a good glove, average to good hitting SS (like Renteria who just got dealt for 2 so so prospects) & Tejada will play 3B or even 1B, keep him, otherwise, I reluctantly agree with Roch.

Nahhh Steve , the best part of the movie is the scenes with the lady doc & when she exposes her overall tan. Amazing how much tanning she gets in that hospital isn't it? A skinny twerp like Swayze beating up goons was comical.

Bedard can be surly or laughing like a hyena for all I care , as long as he is $igned & pitches, who cares? Very few of them give a d@mn about what we think or say, nor do they care how we feel so why worry about his demeanor? If being aloof makes the guy happy, let him be, as long as he plays up to his ability.

I think if the O's discuss moving Bedard before they have a serious negotiation with him over an extension we can safely say that nothing has changed and we are stuck in 4th place until the Angelos family finally gets tired of their toy and sells to a serious buyer.

Also, to go back to square one now is another seriously bad idea.

If the team had crashed and burned with Bedard, Lowen, Guthrie and Benson in the rotation and Ray in the bullpen I would agree that we suck and need to knock down the walls and rebuild the whole thing.

But the rotation we had from mid-July through the end of the season was a group of itinerant cobblers. To argue that the team needs to be rebuilt from the bottom up based on that is the equivalent of saying the moon program should have been stopped because you couldn't get your model rocket to launch.

The O's need to keep Bedard and they need to send a clear message to baseball that they are committed to winning today - not next decade. They need to get Bedard and Roberts tied down for 5 – 10 years. To do otherwise means Bedard is gone, Roberts is gone, Markakis will be gone in 3 years and Guthrie will probably go, too. Talent that good is not going to wait for a rebuilding process that will not be done until the backend of their careers.

To go back to my favorite example of a moribund franchise finding life, the Detroit Tigers were in a worse situation in 2005 than the O's are in today.

The relatively cheap veterans who came to Detroit and made them winners signed in part for the money but also because of the commitment ownership made to making the team a winner ASAP.

Detroit was a lame franchise with a negetive attitude and a penchant for beating themselves. Until 2006. Amazing what a difference one year can make.

And if you are among the "we have to get younger to find salvation" lobby, consider this - Detroit got older from 2005 to 2006 and has an average age older than the O's.

The teams that are the constant winners might develop good young talent, but they are not dependent upon it to compete. In fact, only 1 or 2 of the constant winners do it off of their own talent.

In Boston – Manny, Papi, Lowell, Drew, Crisp, Beckett, Schilling (sort of), Lugo, Varitek, Timlin, Okajima, and Matsuzaka are all imports.

Boston did not develop any players like these (Schilling excepted) and could not be in the position they are in today if they depended entirely on their own system.

Yet, if you stop a minute, how many teams (that do not have $150 million plus payrolls) can tick off a short list of talent like the O’s?

Roberts led MLB in steals most of the season and finished 2nd, has one of the top On Base %'s in the AL and plays superlative defense,
Markakis is, I am sorry Mr. James, the top defensive RF in the AL and maybe baseball and is fast becoming a legitimate BIG RBI and power guy, Bedard is Bedard.
Guthrie has all the potential everyone says DCab has with the maturity of a 5 year vet.

And you might have noticed Mora played gold glove 3B this season and hit well enough to hold his own, while Luis Hernandez plays D better than any of the guys on the post season teams and Ramon, if he decides to show up, is one of the best all around catchers.

Maybe I am just naïve, but that sure sounds like a nucleus to me.

The difference is in the players who surround the nucleus. In recent history, the O's have tended to have Manny, Moe and Jack as those guys. And that is not going to change if the O's give their backbone away.

PhilF - Good information on Bedard and I do not know what to make of it.

Pedro Martinez seems to be similarly fragile, but it is hard to argue against keeping him on your payroll. Bedard may be a similar kind of guy.

It is not a trend to inspire confidence. It also might explain his desire not to pitch past his pre-set limits.

Still, whatever great things we might get from a trade, none of them are going to equal Bedard in an Oriole uniform.

As Earl Weaver is only too happy to point out over and over and over again, pitching is 75% of the game.

Everyone here (almost) looks totally at offense. Pitching and defense trump offense 90% of the time.

The O's need to shore up the pitching and put together a defense that stops runs from scoring first and, in my opinion anyway, Bedard is a key to this happening.

THE ORIOLES ARE ALWAYS THE LAST TEAM TO POST THEIR SCHEDULE FOR SOME REASON I DON'T UNDERSTAND. BUT FOR ANYONE WHO HAS AN HOUR TO KILL JUST GO TO EACH TEAMS SITE AND FILL IN THE DATES THE ORIOLES PLAY THEM . THATS WHAT IDID LAST YEAR. BY THE WAY OPENING DAY IS MARCH 31ST AGAINST TAMPA BAY AND THE RAVENS HAVE HOME GAMES NEXT SEPTEMBER IN THE 2ND AND 3RD WEEKS OF THE SEASON BECAUSE THE NATIONALS ARE HOME AND WE ALL KNOW BOTH TEAMS ARE NEVER HOME ON THE SAME DAY. ROCH WHAT EVER HAPPEN TO THE EARLY BIRD SCHEDULE THE ORIOLES USED TO GIVE OUT THE LAST HOME STAND OF THE SEASON OR DO THEY ONLY GIVE THAT TO THEIR BEST FANS 1ST???? I MEAN DID THEY MAIL IT TO ALL THE RED SOX AND YANKEE FANS 1ST!!!!!!

SEPT 14TH 2008 ORIOLES PLAY TWINS = RAVENS OPEN SEASON ON THE ROAD ONCE AGAIN!!!!!!

roch, tell max to set aside the weekend of june 13th -15th for that bib series against the pirates , their 1st visit here since 1979!!!!! maybe we can have the 1979 orioles back for that weekend????? i forgot the orioles don't bring back teams that finished over 500 !!!!!!!

max , the orioles are in chicago to play the cubs june 24th - 26th

max ,another update ,the orioles finish the 2008 season at home so we can clinch the wild card here !!!!!!!!

EJ said it all - period!

5 years, 60 mil is perfect for Bedard.

Dont forget, he's damaged goods... always knicked up, had Tommy John (but hasn't everybody???).

To me, this comment from our Hagerstown friend is outstanding:

"Trade Bedard. There's something about that guy that I don't like. His general demeanor and his abandonment of the team at the end of the season (unlike Guthrie) tells me that he belongs somewhere else. As a practical matter, his trade value will never be higher. Move him before his attitude and health become an issue with other clubs." (Venting in Hagerstown)

I, too, hate this guy's weirdness. It's not just that he's unfriendly and surly; Bob Gibson was unfriendly and surly. It's that he refuses to pitch more than 7 innings; develops injuries no one can locate (the ill defined "hamstring" in 2005, when the team needed him to remain in first place); and left the O's six weeks before the end of this season. Gibson was a gamer; Bedard is always a potential no-show.

It's hard to know what motivates Bedard -- paranoia about injuries? general misanthropia? money? -- but it's safe to say it isn't sacrificing for the Baltimore Orioles. These matters are *all* problems, especially when you're talking giving this guy $100 million, money that could be spent on strong everyday players and/or prospects.

At this point in Bedard's career -- right after striking out 200-plus hitters -- teams who know him less well than we do are still salivating over his talent and stats more than worrying about these deeper question marks. Sure, there's a chance he could do even better next year, but given his history, there's also a chance he'll regress, get hurt or flake out.

His value is very high. We can finish fourth without him. Trade him now, out of the division, get everything you can, and don't look back.