I think we should package Tejada, Mora (if he'll waive the no trade clause) and D-Cab for Johan Santana with a window of time to sign him to a longer deal. With Santana and Bedard as 1 and 2, we would have a shot if we could get a bat.

Roch: What makes you think that Kranitz wouldn't ask to join Girardi in N.Y.? With only a 1 year contract it would make sense for him to ask out. I feel Don Baylor would be a great choice for bench coach. Any thoughts?

Anyone whose fingerprints are on the debacle of the last 10 years, even circumstantially, is totally suspect to me.

Not that the 1b coach is relevant anyway.

Birkins to the D-Rays? I bet they were just worried that the Yankees or Red Sox would scoop him up. And I can't believe their gall at announcing this now. I bet they just wanted to take attention away from the World Series. I bet Peter Gammons is pissed.

And I hear that Greg Brady gets mored babes than Tom and Kyle combined. Is Tom the one that dated Florence Henderson?

Tim in CA - Your trade makes a lot of sense.

The Angels might be willing to take Tejada at 3B over ARod for 2 reasons.
1) With Vlad as the designated superstar on the team, signing ARod could cause a whole lot of repurcussions - Vlad may want his deal renegotiated,
ARod would want to the the big fish and Vlad might not like that either. It could have the equivalent affect on the team as Sosa arriving in Baltimore did.
I am also sure the Angels noticed ARod's post-season performance and, having just been bounced because their designated superstar choked, might not want to have a team with 2 October duds.
2) Miggy offers a more reasonable budget hit and brings with him a reputation of profesionalism and performance. The team had a considerable lack of leadership in the playoffs that Miggy could provide.

The problem is this is almost the same deal the O's almost had with the Angels last year that fell through because the Angels backed out. (The Angels then threw some other names out that the O's rejected and the talks stopped.)

If the Angels wouldn't do it last year after a really strong year from Miggy, why would they do it now, after a so-so year?

Tim in CA,

I think your hypothetical deal has some merit -- particularly the part about getting rid of Tejada. Sure, we'd like his RBIs, but they're very iffy in the post-steroid era. Other than what he MIGHT give us in RBIs, he offers us little to nothing on the field or in the clubhouse. The major problem I see, however, is bringing Santana into a rotation that might also include Cabrera. (You did mention Penn as an option but I question how viable an option he is. At this point I see in Penn someone whom the organization has over-valued (watching him pitch has been less than impressive) and who I think has plenty of ambivalence about pitching at the Major League level.) Cabrera and Santana are both VERY high on promise and limited in results. A rotation that contains two dudes like that would be a possible devastation for this club next year.

((O is for -- what else?))

Hey Roch, not sure if you know of anything regarding the Renteria trade to the Tigers, but I'm hearing rumors (one from sportscrack.com) that the trade might have been a precursor for the Braves and Orioles to make a deal involving Bedard.

With Bedard likely to walk after 2009, why not trade him now while his stock is sky high along with Tejada and get some great young prospects?

So Girardi turns down the O's - and his good friend McPhail - to manage the Yankees instead. A quality guy who doesn't want to work for Angleos? What a shocker.

Phil F - Wait! I thought Billy Bean invented the formulae Boston used to build their team?

Whether James had any role in influencing the game prior to his being hired by Boston, the fact is the bullpen by committee idea was HIS - until it failed.

Suddenly, it turns out, what he tried to say was the idea is to bring a Papelbon into the 7th inning. I think he called the guy an "expert reliever." Yea, that's the ticket.

You have to know this was not his real idea because of the absolute stupidity of it. James is arrogant and venal but he is not stupid. But, then again, the committee idea was pretty stupid, too. Hmmmm.

Why isn't James man enough to own up to his own bad idea? The same reason he takes credit for other people's ideas or claims to have invented ideas that were already in use before he even showed up. He is an egomaniac with a gift for stringing words together.

For instance - Earl Weaver kept stats on hitters and built his lineup around what the stats showed. He went to pitchers based on the other teams stats against them. James did not even start writing until Earl's O's had been to 3 WS, but James is only too happy to take the credit.

Earl was all about offensive efficiency. He wanted guys on base and he wanted power from his power slots. Sound familiar? All James did was create a stat for that - that is a big difference from inventing it.

And, again, I ask the chicken and egg question - does Boston see so many pitches because the have a formulae that really works or because they have Ortiz and Ramirez stacked up in the lineup?

I am not sure they would be as patient or hit as well if they did not have those guys in the lineup to back everyone up. What is Youk in a lineup without Papi and Manny in the lineup? Kevin Millar circa 2007.

And Boston obtained their 2 behemoths before John Henry owned the team.

Ortiz was a shot in the dark, having been released by the Twins and having no particular history of the numbers he has put up in Boston. Manny was obtained for 1 reason - RBI. Now the whole offense is built around them because of Bill James?

Sorry, that is just not true.

Also, for the record, Rick Down implemented the Yankee hitting style we all know and love. Down is not a disciple of James. Not even close.

The easiest thing in the world is to credit James for EVERYTHING in baseball that works. James certainly does. But James did not change the game, he is just riding a pretty good wave.

I am not saying James is a dud, I am just saying I do not think he deserves the god-like adoration he gets.

You can credit James for it all you want but what did Boston in this WS that was any different from, oh, 1970? Or 1976? Or 1950? Or 1938? A good team is a good team.

If there were never a Bill James the innovations that have been happening in baseball since the late 1960's would still be happening. Lets see how James tries to take credit for that!

Morrison, all you "heard" was some random guy with a blog making up a completely unfounded, and stated as such, fantasy. That deal would never happen, even remotely. The Braves do not have nearly enough to trade for Bedard, and Jarr Jurrens and Gorkys Hernandez will not change that.

The O's opperations will soon announce [ in keeping up with ths Ravens ] 3 radio shows next season. Tom Davis and Erine Tyler will host the " Ernie Tyler Show " weekly from Charlstown retirement community near Arbutus also an Andy Etchebarren show is in the works co-hosted by Tom Davis and Tom will co-host a show with our lady grounds keeper. MASN does it all!

Is anyone else tired of people still thinking we're only a bat or two from having a shot? We are NOT that close! It's time to stop denying that we are in a rebuilding mode. It sucks, yes, but it is what's going on now. "d" for stop being delusional

Here's what the 1B coach does:
1) takes the equipment the batter removes when he gets on
2) slaps the runner on the back
3) says, "Watch line drives to the infield.
4) reminds the batter how many outs there are
5) yells, "Get Back" long after it has any effect on the runner getting back to the bag.

I put a mic on Jimmy Williams during a game one time. For a first base coach, he was a great hockey player.

Tom D,

The players in both Anaheim and Baltimore are different now. Stoneman is gone and we didn't have McPhail when the deal for Miggy fell apart. Anything could happen now.

Jeff

Tom D -

You may be on to something with your comment on Ortiz...

"Ortiz was a shot in the dark, having been released by the Twins and having no particular history of the numbers he has put up in Boston"

The shot in the dark line made me chuckle. Normally, I thought the "shots" came in the mens room stall (at least according to Canseco).

KG, what do you think the Orioles would demand for Bedard in a trade? I'm just wondering because you state the Braves don't have nearly enough to trade for him, so who does?

Doug H..... pure fantasy. When you trade Tejada and Mora who are you going to get to play those positions in order for Bedard and Santana to have a chance at winning.... And that big bat... who are you going to trade for that.... Pure fantasy.

Hey KG you maybe right about some guy and a blog, and you are right about Jurrens and Hernanderz...But just to play devils advocate (because I agree with you entirely) What if the Brave were to throw in Tex....I dont think it would happen and I stand by my previous suggestion of B-Rob and Bedard to the Mets for Pelfrey, Humber, Gomez and Milliedge...

Bedard isnt going to ATL. The O's have him for 09. Why trade him at all? Trade Miggy, Payton, Gibby & Mora for prospects. Try getting Hunter. Move Cabrera to NL. Get rid of Cub atmosphere, what have they ever won. Trembley is in over his head. Where are all the Cy Young award winners our new pitching coach had. Dont need stars, just good talent that feels it's a priveledge to play ball here.

Hey Roch, what do you think about Mattingly as bench coach? I know he has worn the pinstripes his entire career, but after getting passed over, he might be interested. He has connections to the Orioles (his agent runs Ironclad Authentics for Cal), knowing Tembley only has a one year deal, could also be appealing.

I hope you're not making a mountain out of this Mo Hill....

Damn, and here i was hoping that by the time a guy has to play outfield in the major leagues, he already knows how to run, catch, and throw. I mean the O's were playing infielders in the outfield, along with gibbons and millar...I mean, really, how hard can it be fellas? The only thing i want the first base coach to do is congratulate the hitter as he rounds first after dumping one in the stands, or over the head of some unsuspecting infielder-turned-outfielder who can't run, catch, or throw.
Mickey Mouse could coach first base next year and the O's would have the same record. (Picturing Mickey on the lines, the blushing bride Minnie just so proud sitting in the stands, that big head barely avoiding those foul balls). It's not that important. Well, maybe to the new FBC it is, so sorry new FBC. Whoever you are.
It's such a secret though, you might not know until June or so.

Here's a couple of realistic (in my mind, anyway) trade offers.

1. Erik Bedard, Kevin Millar and Hayden Penn to Cincinnati for Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Homer Bailey. (Cincy may balk - take out Millar and Votto and the might do it).

2. Miguel Tejada and Ramon Hernandez to LA Angels for Brandon Wood, top C prospect (Mathis?) and Nick Adenhart.

3. Mora (if he waives his no-trade clause) and Garrett Olson to LA Dodgers for Matt Kemp.

Lineup would look like this:
C - Mathis
1B - Votto
2B - Roberts
3B - Wood/Moore
SS - L. Hernandez
LF - Kemp
CF - Bruce
RF - Markakis
DH - Huff

SP's - Guthrie, Cabrera, Loewen, Bailey, Adenhart.

i is for inconceivable

Hey Roch,
Unrelated but what are the odds that the Red Sox take the dive and go for Arod. It's a scary thought, but i really could see it happening.

We should have a guy named "Mo Hill" on the team. That's a cool name. Other than that, the only decent baserunner we have left is Brian Roberts so the 1B coach position ain't all that important.

Bill F -- Nice turn on the name Mo (or Moe, as Roch spells it in his article) Hill.

While Hill may well be a good coach, I don't know if it's a good idea for a team struggling as much as the Orioles to have a first base coach whose first name is Moe. I mean that's just opening the door to waaay too many Three Stooges jokes, if you ask me.

Tom D,

Man, you really have a lot of venom for Bill James. I've read some of his books and find them interesting. It's clear some of his ideas have been applied by successful front office people (Bean, Epstein).

I'll admit that some of his writings can come off a little condescending, but they are always logical, researched and well written. I just haven't read about all of this egotism you write of, perhaps you can source some of that info?

By the way, I also agree that any proponents of the use of statistics and some of the Moneyball owe a great deal (more than James, in my opinion) to the Earl of Baltimore.

Just a quick correction though . . . John Henry was the Red Sox owner in January 2002 (through that wacky switch of teams, thing with the Marlins). David Ortiz was signed around December 2002.

It's funny, I'll bet the Ortiz signing didn't even make the front page of the Boston newspaper. I remember reading about it on-line and thinking that it was a nice pick up for Boston, but certainly had no idea (and not many people could have) that Ortiz would explode like he did.

Leave Hoiles alone. He lead the York Revolution to be a contender in their first year. That's our only hope here in York since the Orioles haven't done that for a decade. I'd rather manage a Minor league team than be the guy that holds the batting gloves at first base in the majors.

I think the idea of an LA-Baltimore trade involving Tejada does make a lot of sense. I'd hope that we can get more than just Wood and Santana, though. Wood's value dropped a good amount last year (not that I necessarily believe he's now less valuable, but it's a helpful negotiating point), as did Santana's. I like Saunders or Adenhart better, and LA does have oodles of other talent they might throw into a deal (guys like Mathis, McPherson...). While Tejada's 2007 season numbers appear down, he's got a long track record as a star hitter and hit very well after returning from injury so we might argue he's not really in decline.

I'm still floored by Arod. With the supposed extension, his starting point for free agency offers is about 8 years and $222M. He must really resent the Yankees fans and media to walk away from that, since I don't know who else will pay it.

T-Mac: I’m going to say it before someone else does—if we pick up a top catching prospect in Mathis, what about Wieters? How can we have two top catching prospects? The answer, of course, is, why not? More is better, and I’d rather have multiple guys fighting for the same position and have that awful problem of how do we fit in both of these great players who play the same position (though Mathis might be a bit questionable since he’s struggled). Overall, without knowing much about some of the guys you’ve mentioned in possible trades, these trade ideas seem to be in the right flavor, though I can’t imagine the Dodgers parting with Kemp for Mora and Garrett Olson (to get another team’s best prospects/up and coming players, we’re going to have to deal our best players).

And, again, I can’t imagine the Twins parting with Santana until they at least see if they are postseason worthy (some time in July). If they are close, I can see them holding on to him, trying to make a run, and letting him walk in free agency. Without Santana, they have little chance in that division. If they decide to trade Santana, suitors (contenders) will line up everywhere. Tejada, Cabrera, and Mora won’t cut it. Young, cheap players they can hold onto for 5 or 6 years before free agency is what they will want, not overpriced declining veterans and a floundering pitcher like Cabrera who, while still young at 26, is just two years away from free agency.

To "a fan with delusions of grandeur":

Um, Luis Hernandez would play SS, and Aubrey Huff would play 3B, freeing up the DH spot for a big bat.

There, that wasn't so hard, was it?

Morrison: The Braves don't have enough because they traded away many of their top prospects last spring. The O's, if they will indeed trade Bedard, will be looking for Major League ready talent, no tprojected A and AA players (maybe 1 in the deal, but not as a centerpiece). Teams that may fit the bill include the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Devil Rays, Rockies... these teams are all stacked with propsects. I asked Keith Law what he thought the O's could/should get for Bedard, and he said 2 ML ready studs and 1 top prospect... like something starting with Kemp and Loney from the Dodgers.

I wouldnt want Teix because his contract is up next year, if the O's are going to trade Bedard, they need youngsters with at least 5 (preferably 6) years left before free agency.

CRB-- are you suggesting that the Orioles have multiple prospects at the same position? How could two quality players exist in the same minor league system? That's ludicrous. I prefer the current method of developing as many 5-inning starters and mediocre DH's as possible. One half-inning at a time--don't try to overwhelm the kids...

ps-- can everyone start putting first initials in front of "Santana" so I know whether to skip your post if you say we should trade for Johan. In fact, maybe Roch should have a separate blog for people who think we can trade old, underachieving position players for young, can't-miss talent.

Regarding Dan Connolly’s recent article, which is in the same spirit of some other articles that have popped up recently, I have to say that it’s premature to throw up the white flag and start labeling the Red Sox a dynasty or anything close to it. They may be the favorites next season, and they will look pretty good, but we all know that many things can get in the way of winning: devastating injuries, declining veterans, young players who stall or recede in their progress, and players just having bad seasons. Yes, these are all the things that seem to happen to the O’s but they can happen to any team.

Perhaps the most distressing thing about the Red Sox for the Orioles is not that they can snag just about any superstar they want through free agency or trade, but that they are developing tomorrow’s superstar players. So, not only are the Orioles behind them in the ability to land top veteran talent, they are also behind them in developing top young players. That’s the most devastating thing. During these years where the Red Sox have been making the playoffs, winning championships and spending lots of money, and the O’s have been floundering in last place, the O’s should’ve been developing talent like the Red Sox have to get them competitive.

I would say for the Orioles, the key thing is to just ignore the Red Sox. Perhaps look at what they are doing right and emulate it, but don’t be demoralized by how good they appear and just focus on developing young talent and building a hopefully winning club in the future. After all, even if the Red Sox win the division the next 10 years, you only need to be in second to get the wildcard, and once you get in the playoffs, anything can happen.

All corrct Fang, except the part about Girardi being a quality guy.....

I say Girardi makes Billy Martin look tame in NYC. I can't wait until one of the Steinbrenner boys or old George himself shows up in Girardi's office before or after a game & tells him who to play. Better yet, he can stick his head out of the dugout & scream at one of them (if they dare sit near the dugout one night) to shut up.... this is a wonderful situation for non Spankee fans..... an Earthquake just waiting to happen.