Crunching numbers and gagging
Michael Vick sounded so sincere today, didn't he?
I guess nobody could talk him into carrying a chihuahua in a purse.
I just want that guy to go away. A year. Two years. Whatever.
A former member of the Oakland Athletics was asked recently what he sees now in catcher Ramon Hernandez. He replied: "I don't see the same player I saw with us when he was on one-year deals."
If I'm Hernandez, I'm not taking this as a compliment.
While we're concentrating on the Orioles' late-season swoons, their winning percentage is .433 in August and .427 in September since 1997. You can add a 5-13 record in October -- no playoff games, of course -- and not feel bad about having concerns right now. There's definitely a trend.
Check out these numbers:
1998: They go 2-11 in their last 13 games, 1-12 from Aug. 20 to Sept. 2 -- including a 10-game losing streak.
1999: They go 1-6 in their last seven games, though they also won 13 in a row from Sept. 7-22.
2000: They go 5-12 from Sept. 6-20.
2001: They lost 10 in a row from Sept. 1-19, though nobody could concentrate on baseball after the terrorist attacks, and go 1-16 from Aug. 24 to Sept. 19.
2002: 4-32. 'Nuff said.
2003: They lost eight in a row from Aug. 11-19, and nine in a row from Aug. 24 to Sept. 2. They were 4-17 from Aug. 11 to Sept. 2, and 6-14 over their last 20 games.
2004: They lost 12 in a row from Aug. 16-28.
2005: They lost nine in a row from Sept. 18-26 and went 2-13 from Sept. 14-29.
2006: They went 4-14 from Aug. 29 to Sept. 16.
2007: The current losing streak stands at six games. They need to break out tomorrow night -- in a big way.

Comments
Ramon should look at next season as a "one-year deal." He has one year to prove to the league that he deserves to be a starting catcher. In 2009, the Orioles will hopefully have Matt Wieters behind the plate and either Mark Teixiera or Brandon Snyder playing first base. Ramon will have to get his at-bats as a backup catcher/DH or seek a trade to a team that envisions him as a starter. If he plays well next year, he'll get a chance somewhere. If not, he'll finish out his career on the bench.
Posted by: Dylan | August 27, 2007 8:57 PM
About Ramon
I have to agree, sadly. The losing atmosphere here has had to take away some of his passion and desire to win. He really can't say he hustles every play, has made some boneheaded mistakes behind the plate, and Jim Palmer and Rick Dempsey have time and time again questioned his pitch calling.
He has become, sadly to say, a vintage Oriole.
Posted by: kho1288 | August 27, 2007 9:17 PM
Lots of things going wrong at once.
Every pitcher tanking. Some say it's like they know what's coming.
Catcher calling the pitches, but not hitting any.
Catcher has no hustle and lacks defense.
Is he trying to make a point???
Posted by: Oldschool Rich | August 27, 2007 9:58 PM
About Ramon
I have to agree, sadly. The losing atmosphere here has had to take away some of his passion and desire to win. He really can't say he hustles every play, has made some boneheaded mistakes behind the plate, and Jim Palmer and Rick Dempsey have time and time again questioned his pitch calling.
He has become, sadly to say, a vintage Oriole.
Posted by: kho1288 | August 27, 2007 10:30 PM
when's the last time you saw a catcher hit his pitcher
in the ass with a throw to second base. even gus triandos, never did that!
Posted by: mike from annapolis | August 27, 2007 11:05 PM
Which begs the question: do players come to Baltimore because it's their last best option to get paid?
That's why we can't collapse year after year. Any player with pride or wants a shot at a ring cannot realistically place Baltimore on their short list. But if money is your main objective with a fringe benefit of some nice local rehab facilities--Charm City fits the bill.
Posted by: JPA | August 27, 2007 11:36 PM
Ramon's struggles just show you how difficult a game baseball is - he was awesome the first half of last year and this year he's hurt the team pretty badly with his lack of production.
Someone mentioned how Markakis has been a stud this year. I agree that he has been very good; however, I wouldn't say he has met my expectations, or, better yet, hopes. After the second half of last season, I really thought he would become a top tier player this year, easily hitting over .300, even challenging for the batting title. I also thought he would reach 25 homers and well over 100 RBI. Perhaps a .400 OBP as well? I thought he would "progress".
Oh well, he's not really that far off from those numbers. Here's to next year, Nick, and to you being the starting right fielder in the All Star game. Twenty first half home runs should do it.
Posted by: Almost Former | August 28, 2007 1:11 AM
I think Michael Vick's apology would have been much more effective if he had been cuddling a pit bull puppy and lovingly feeding it doggie treats while standing at the podium. On second thought, that's probably not a good idea. Those things can take off a finger!
Posted by: Rin Tin Tin HOF | August 28, 2007 7:11 AM
It is to some degree understandable. Look at the effort put forth by Pete. It seems maybe on his reward. But the joke is on the fans.
Hopefully Petee has seen the light and really turned the reign over to MacPhail and Trembley. At te very least we will hae mistakes from their effort. At the best we will have q competetive team. With Pete we will look at number 11.
Posted by: Ed So Pa Fan | August 28, 2007 8:18 AM
Give Ramon a break. Holy bleep! The guy's in a little slump. He had a great year last year, is a terrific defensive catcher overall, and loves baseball. This year he was hampered by injuries and never got fully rolling. So what? It happens. Ramon is one of the best catchers in baseball and we're lucky to have him.
Posted by: Jerry | August 28, 2007 8:29 AM
Ramon seems to be following the career path of Javy Lopez...
Ramon looked great last year and his dramatic decline in all areas, is a surprise. However, catchers all seem to go downhill fast once they hit their 30's, with the exception of Pudge and even he seems to have lost his power stroke.
Posted by: TerryP | August 28, 2007 8:38 AM
About the above comments:
I think Ramon has to commit to getting better, or to getting out of here.
Wieters, however, might not be ready come '09 . I hope he is - that kid can PLAY!
Tex ain't coming here, no matter how much we want him. We're terrible, and he is fed up with terrible from his time in Texas....sorry.
Posted by: Keith Parsons | August 28, 2007 8:48 AM
Agreed. Pull him. The way he's been playing defensively, we may as well have House behind the plate. At least he looks like he has a clue at the plate.
Posted by: smithfield | August 28, 2007 8:49 AM
It seems like for catchers, a sudden decline in offense isn’t all that uncommon, and it makes sense given the brutal nature of the position they play. I hope Hernandez is just having an off season, exacerbated by his various injuries this year, but his almost nonexistent slugging percentage (.333—almost seems like an error), combined with his age (31), is worrisome. An aging catcher with power losing his ability to hit for any sort of power has to be a serious concern. Hate to say it, but Hernandez’s 2007 offensive numbers are looking worse than Javy Lopez’s 2006 (or 2005).
Will Hernandez, who had such a great season last year, be just another failed Orioles free agent signing? That would really be disappointing, particularly since most of us at the beginning of this season counted on Hernandez to be at the heart of the lineup. Wieters might arrive in 2009, but there now has to be some question who’s going to catch in 2008 given Hernandez’s season so far. They can certainly go with him again (and they won’t have much choice because who else will they use?), hoping that he rediscovers his offensive form next season, but can the O’s, who are not lacking for offensive holes throughout the lineup, afford to have Hernandez have another lackluster season?
Posted by: CRB | August 28, 2007 9:28 AM
I think Mussina may be pitching his way into contention for the Orioles starting rotation. Raise your hand if you would welcome him back with open arms. (crickets)
Posted by: JPA | August 28, 2007 9:43 AM
Roch - as bad as the numbers above are, you leave out a couple positives:
In 1998, according to your article with Dan Connolly this morning, the O's went 32 - 24 in August and September (.592). If they went 20 - 8 in September when did the 2 - 11 start?
In 2000, in sort of a kissing your sister through a screen door scenario, they went 27 - 30 in August and September. This is pretty good if you consider the 5 - 12 they had in there ( i.e.: 22 - 18, .550, in the rest of the games... what happened in mid - September?).
In 2004 they went 31 - 25 (.553) in August and September. In August they won 8 in a row and went 11 - 13 to pull to 2 games under .500 (57 - 59). Although the then promptly lost 12 in a row and finished 78 - 84.
But how upset would people be with .553 down the stretch? After the last 6 games, that would likely be taken as significant momentum into 2008.
I am not trying to mitigate some pretty horrible finishes - and the Orioles have had some embarrassments. And you can find whatever you are looking for in statistics if you look hard enough. I am just saying we should not automatically assume the worst is the only possibility - or inevitable.
There are 33 games left. I think if the Orioles win more of those than they lose and finish "strong" we have something to carry over into 2008.
Posted by: TOM D | August 28, 2007 9:45 AM
I think that going back ten years and analyzing W-L results is funny. What does the September record in 1998 have to do with anything this year?
Anyone can make all the arguments we have seen about "losing tradition", atmosphere of losing, etc., and you can say all kinds of things about players with >1 year deals tanking, but ALL other teams have similar contract situations.
This 2007 team was not on the field in 1998, period. Neither were any coaches. Linking THIS team to another decade is statistical léger de main.
Roch, how about trotting out another team's stats? A team that did major turnaround in a year...or two. What did the Tigers do in September 1998? What did they do in 2006?
Posted by: Bobby Ballgame | August 28, 2007 10:19 AM
I have said it before. Hernandez has looked like crap ever since they drafted Wieters & it got worse after they signed him.
How would any of us react if our boss hired a new guy that did the same work we did, raved about how great he is , & couldn't wait until he got here. Think about it.... I am not saying it's right on Hernandez's part but just maybe he is disillusioned & sees no future for him here? Maybe he wants out? A trade?
Also, has anyone seen the look on Backo's face lately? He looks like he is depressed & worn out. That one game a week thing is too much for him I guess.
I was surprised Vick didn't say.... "the b!tches set me up..."
Posted by: Brian | August 28, 2007 10:20 AM
I think if you read between the lines of Dan Connolly’s recent article, “Start of Fall,” you can uncover a losing attitude on this club, that finishing with a run of losing is almost acceptable and can be justified. Look at Flanagan’s list of reasons quoted in that article: “Teams that are in the race usually dominate the ones who aren't. And the ones who aren't usually are more concerned with doing player evaluations, and the focus can change to development and looking ahead.” He does go on to say, "But I don't think that's the case this season. We think [the losing is] just a short blip on the screen," (and he has other encouraging remarks later as do some of the others quoted)) though, really, he’s already put excuses out there. He goes on to say, “Obviously, those guys [contenders] are playing for their lives, and at this point, we are not. . . . We're playing for credibility and respectability, and that's a different motivation." Lots of excuses.
I won’t quote it, but Trembley goes further into reasons why losers lose late in the season. Maybe they’re just being realistic and speaking the truth. But it seems like they’ve put a lot of thought into it. They know how losing works and it’s just second nature now. They have just as many excuses during the offseason when they don’t sign the top free agents or make any trades.
Does anyone step up and say, losing is not acceptable? They might be thinking it—no one really wants to lose—but they seem to be more willing to talk excuses for losing than condemning the losing itself.
Posted by: CRB | August 28, 2007 10:20 AM
JPA - In reference to your calling the Orioles the worst bullpen in baseball history:
I have seen some of the blogs where I think you picked up this "slogan." And if that is correct you know that EVERYONE is claiming their team's bullpen is the worst - including people from San Diego! And they all have the statistics to back it up!!
Just some perspective:
In May the White Sox had the best bullpen in MLB with a 3.29 ERA but since then they have cruised to a 9.15 ERA and have blown 20 saves despite having one of the leaders in saves and Jenks has blown 5 saves to go along with his 36.
In a 4 game series with Boston this weekend, the ChiSox were outscored 46 - 7. The bullpen gave up 20 earned runs!
Tampa Bay has had an ERA consistently above 6 and is on a pace to finish with the worst bullpen ERA EVER in baseball. (Hmmmm....) Baltimore, mostly affected by one bad game, is now close. But TB has been there all season. Nothing beats consistency.
And just another bit of perspective: The Yankees - everyone-without-a-clue's favorite to sweep into another World Series - has lost 4 games in August by a combined 61 - 13 (average score in those games - 15 - 3) - 15 - 4, 12 - 0 (vs. the O's!), 18 - 9 and 16 - 0 yesterday.
Meanwhile, the Yankees have only 21 saves and have BLOWN 16! (The O's are 24 and 16, respectively, and do not have Mariano Reviera.)
The Yankees are a team that is supposed to be one of the elite!
I think saying the O's have the worst bullpen in the history of the game might be cute and might even help with your cynic cred, but it is hardly true.
The O's are certainly not stellar, but they are far closer to being that than the above mentioned teams.
Posted by: TOM D | August 28, 2007 10:22 AM
JPA. You've made an excellent point about how free agents may percive Baltimore. Let's look at this year's free agent signings such as Payton, Huff and Baez in particular.
Who were we bidding against for these players' services? I don't think teams were clamouring for any of thes guys. The biggest surprise was the 19 mill bestowed on Baez-his agent deserves and extra bonus for that one! He created a non-existent market for a guy whose career is clearly on the downslope.
The total contracts of the 'big 3' mentioned is roughly 50 Mill!!! (Huff 3 yrs-20, Payton 2 yrs-9 mill plus and Baez 3 yrs-19 Mill(big ouch!))
Might as well gave 50 mill to Gary Matthews Jr!
Let's hope the Orioles learn for this type of insanity in the '07 off-season and don't make the same desperation moves. We likely could have got the same production/return at a fraction of the cost by signing 3 Independent League players.
Posted by: TerryP | August 28, 2007 10:28 AM
What does the decline of 1998 have to do with the decline of 2007? One possibility is that when you depend too much on older players, they may not have the stamina to produce at a high level the whole year.
That was certainly true in 1998.
And how could you leave out the terrible 1986 swoon?
Posted by: soccer dad | August 28, 2007 11:57 AM
Jerry- What games have you been watching lately? If Ramon loves baseball he sure has a funny way of showing it. He has never been a great defensive catcher. He threw out a fairly high percentage of runners last year but committed many more passed balls and errors than the average catcher. This year he is awful in every aspect of the game and never looks to be trying very hard. His throws now consistently bounce before they get to 2B and if they don't they're well off to the left field side of the bag. Both his play and his attitude are hurting and embarassing the team.
Posted by: Anne | August 28, 2007 12:24 PM
Mike from Annapolis
"when's the last time you saw a catcher hit his pitcher
in the ass with a throw to second base. even gus triandos, never did that!".
Thank you for allowing me to laugh out loud at work. That just made my day.
Posted by: Oldschool Rich | August 28, 2007 3:00 PM