Free-agent thoughts, concluded
Happy Sunday, everybody. As we get deeper into the free-agent signing period, it’s time to close out my three-part look at some potential Orioles targets before any of the 12 players my colleague Dan Connolly identified come off the board. As always, these opinions are strictly my own and should not be taken an indication of the likelihood of any player’s signing with the team. With that said, let’s get into the final four (you can read my thoughts on the first four players on Dan’s list here and the second four here.
Paul Maholm, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates: Despite a 6-14 record, Maholm, 29, is coming off the most successful season of his career by several measures. His 3.66 ERA was a career best for a full season, as was his 3.78 FIP (a metric that estimates what a pitcher’s ERA should’ve been while factoring in only things he is thought to be able to control). However, I can’t shake the feeling that Maholm’s 2011 was a bit fluky. Some of it is evident looking at the lefty’s batted-ball statistics. Hitters had a .286 average on balls in play against Maholm — not far off the MLB standard in 2011, but the lowest for a full season of his career —despite the fact that Maholm also posted the lowest ground-ball rate (49.9 percent) of his career. It wasn’t stellar defense behind him that helped turn all those batted balls into outs, as, statistically, the Pirates weren’t impressive in 2011. That leaves us to conclude that a lot of Maholm’s success in preventing hits was because of luck — balls hit right at Pirates fielders, for example. Add in the fact that Maholm wasn’t the only Pirates starter to have a career year in 2011 (Charlie Morton and Jeff Karstens also posted their best ERAs and FIPs) and it’s fair to wonder how much of Maholm’s success is repeatable. He also landed on the disabled list last year with a shoulder strain in August. All this doesn’t mean that Maholm wouldn’t help the Orioles, of course. He has started at least 29 games and pitched at least 176 innings every year of his career except for 2011, and the DL trip last year was the first of his career. He has been very close to a league-average pitcher over his career, which you can’t say about many of the Orioles starters over the past few years. He’s also going to be significantly cheaper than the other pitchers on Dan’s list. The Orioles, however, shouldn’t expect him to maintain sub-4.00 ERAs and FIPs going forward, especially with his moving from the National League to the American League, and specifically the AL East.
Mark Ellis, 2B, Colorado Rockies: Ellis is 34 years old and coming off easily the worst offensive season of his career. He struggled mightily in Oakland, batting .217 with a .253 on-base percentage and .290 slugging percentage, before being traded to Colorado at the end of June. With the Rockies, his numbers were more respectable — .274/.319/.392 — but still far from impressive, especially with his playing half of his games in a much more hitter-friendly park. Defensively, Ellis is an above-average second baseman. He might make some sense as an insurance policy at second base in case Brian Roberts misses significant time again in 2012, but there are better free-agent options for that role. And the Orioles would still have to depend on someone else to hit leadoff in Roberts’ absence; I don’t see Ellis getting on base at a high enough clip for the team to be able to count on him there. It’s hard to see Ellis providing much value to the Orioles.
Josh Willingham, LF, Oakland Athletics: Willingham could certainly help the Orioles with his bat. The 32-year-old has hit 21 or more homers in four of the past six seasons and never fewer than 15, including 29 last year. The question is where the Orioles would put him. If he’s your everyday left fielder, he’s displacing Nolan Reimold, who I feel had a strong enough finish to last season to warrant giving him a shot at the full-time job in 2012. You could have Willingham serve as your designated hitter — he DH’ed in 36 games in 2011 and isn’t a particularly good fielder. However, Willingham might not be willing to sign with the Orioles just to bat four times a game. Most players prefer to play both sides of the ball, and hitters’ production traditionally suffers when they go from playing in the field to being designated hitters. Also, there’s the question of what to do with Luke Scott if the Orioles sign Willingham, though the club might be willing to part with Scott after he played in just 64 games last year. Those aren’t reasons not to try to sign Willingham, who will be looking for a pay raise from the $6 million he made last season, but they are considerations.
Jason Kubel, OF, Minnesota Twins: Kubel’s game is similar to Willingham’s — and for that matter, Scott’s — power at the plate, below-average defense in the outfield. The left-handed-hitting Kubel probably makes more sense for the Orioles than Willingham, though, as the team has been in search of more left-handed power for quite some time. You run into the same questions with Kubel as you do with Willingham, but those questions are more easily answered with Kubel. There’s no reason to have both Kubel and Scott on the active roster — they play the same position and both hit left-handed, so a platoon wouldn’t make sense. But at 29, Kubel is four years younger than Scott, so you’d have to think the Orioles would value him over Scott. Additionally, signing Kubel wouldn’t necessarily mean kicking Reimold out of left field. Kubel has DH’ed 303 times in his career and might be more amenable to a role as the regular designated hitter. Going after him makes a lot of sense.
What are your thoughts on those four players as they relate to the Orioles? Please share your comments below.
A Baltimore native, 
Comments
I'm disappointed that a blog titled with the word "thoughts" would lead off with Paul Maholm. Just saying.
Plus, since this is about "thoughts", perhaps this is where you bash the franchise for NOT considering FA's that will lead them to an above .500 record.
Can't wait for another 70-92 season. But we'll win 8 of our last 10, so everyone will think "Oh! We're gonna win the world series next year!"
Posted by: Ron | November 13, 2011 11:50 AM
What about Brendan Flannery? I hear he's an up and coming second basemen prospect..
Posted by: Marcus Hines | November 13, 2011 12:57 PM
Great> We're going after more garbage like usual. What's the Chinese definition of insanity? Oh yeah, expect the Orioles to make a difference. Sad, what this once proud franchise has become under Angelos. We've gone from a stalwart contender to a mediocre farm team for the Red Sox and Yankees.
Posted by: Don Eminizer | November 13, 2011 1:04 PM
Juan Pierre (34) or
Johnny Damon (37)
Both have leadoff experience, Bat LH, can platoon with Nolan in LF also serve as DH
Both can get SB
Think about it.............................
Posted by: John | November 13, 2011 1:09 PM
let's just say i'm glad you're not the gm of the team. you mention an average at best left hander who would have to pitch in the a.l. east. 2 outfielders who can't field and a second baseman who can't hit, but he can field (one positive). so if you have andino why would you want ellis. why would you want an outfielder who can't field or an average pitcher at best coming to the a.l. east. the players you mentioned aren't going to make the orioles a better team. come to think of it...suggesting players like this isn't going to help you build a reputation as someone who knows baseball well.
Posted by: fkterp | November 13, 2011 1:28 PM
Non of these players fill the real outstanding need the Orioles have for 2012, a blue-chip starting pitcher. That will likely only come via a trade packaging Adam Jones with a couple of pitching prospects. Robert Andino has earned the right to play 2nd base in the event B-Rob can't go physically. Ryan Adams has to be given a shot at 2nd, even if only a back-up. He was a very high draft choice and you need to find out if he can play at the major league level. In a similar manner, Nolan Reimold has to be given at least 1/3 of a season of straight playing time in LF to see if he's the guy. Chris Davis has to be your penciled-in 3rd baseman, given how well Mark Reynolds played at 1st the latter part of the year. Put Matt Angle at CF in Jones' spot. He's good defensively, and I'll trade whatever drop in offense you get versus Jones with the benefits of a having a blue-chip starting pitcher.
Posted by: Davegolf617 | November 13, 2011 1:29 PM
They all seem logical for the Orioles since they all stink. Not a top name in there and therefore it fits perfectly.
The O's organization is so incredibly stupid. They are desperate to make a splash to regain the confidence of fans, players, and the league. They need to jump in and spend some very serious bucks (which they have tons of). MASN money. But they prefer to remain a laughing stock and in 5th place. They also prefer to take a back seat to their neighbor to the south. The Nats have it right. But then, Angelos doesn't own the Nats. The entire O's organization stinks and always will. They just can't seem to figure anything out.
Posted by: Lunatic | November 13, 2011 1:34 PM
FOUR reasonale choices especially the lefty but they absolutely need another higher starter and I believe leaving Reynolds at 1B and adding another 3B while looking for a bat who can also field for dh.. My take on the BP is sign as many power arms in minor FA and sort through them in the spring. If you can find 2 out of 10 your BP will be a strength.
Posted by: GRANT BARNER | November 13, 2011 1:49 PM
Underwhelming.
Posted by: Special Ed | November 13, 2011 2:20 PM
Hello.
FREE AGENTS
LF - KUBEL: YES. Good bat, can play LF, 1B, DH and comes from a productive organization. *I'd pitch a 3yr/$23m
SP - EDWIN JACKSON: YES. Young, talented, experience, world champion and comes from another good organization. *I'd pitch a 2yr/$26.5m contract - more than market but not long-term. He gets good bank and hopefully translates into more quality FA signings. Re-visit long-term deal.
SP - MARK BEUHRLE: YES. Veteran, lefty, experience, durable, great fielder and comes from good organization - recent world champs. *I'd pitch a 2yr/33m.
I'd also look into signing a 2b/3b type, backup catcher (doumit would be nice via trade - could fill few holes), outfielder and relief help as well as many minor-league/invite types.
TRADES
Ok, the obvious is ATLANTA - maybe a Rf - Markakis & Matusz for 3b/2b/Of - Prado & Rf - Heyward.
Other thoughts:
3b/1b - Reynolds & 2b - Roberts to NYY for 1b - Texiera & 2b/Ss/3b - Eduardo Nunez
Sp - Guthrie to KC for a top-tier prospect (AAA/ML ready), mid-range prospect (AAA/AA), and lower-level prospect (A)
Rp - Kevin Gregg to Boston for C/1b/Dh - Ryan Lavarnway & Lf - Ryan Kalish.
This, or something like it is very possible - good luck O's.
I may 'SitAnywhereAtOsGames', but atleast I am there...peace, j.
Posted by: ISitAnywhereAtOsGames | November 13, 2011 2:22 PM
Eh - unfortunately, we already have players lined up for the positions these guys would take. Kubel = Luke Scott, Willingham = Reimold, Ellis = Andino, and lefty Britton = lefty Maholm sort of.
Of all these guys, Maholm might be the best fit, seeing as Matusz has lost it and a 2nd lefty in the back of the rotation might be a good thing.
Posted by: Beaned1 | November 13, 2011 2:38 PM
Great. So the Orioles are going for the old, halt and lame again. Good to know they're consistent.
Posted by: brooksiefan | November 13, 2011 4:46 PM
I never was a big fan of signing former NL pitchers. Seems they have trouble getting AL hitters out, maybe just O's bad luck. But here's a few to back up my claim: Kurt Ainsworth, Greg Aquino, Mitch Atkins, Kris Benson, Bruce Chen, Lance Cormier, Omar Daal, Mike DeJean, Ryan Drese, Adan Eaton, Mike Gonzalez, Rich Hill, Chris Jakubauskas, Steve Kline,Kerry Ligtenberg, Cla Meredith, Kevin Millwood, Will Ohman, Russ Ortiz, Steve Reed, Dennis Sarfate, Steve Trachsel, Mark Worrell. Is it just me or do others see this pattern?
Posted by: Buck Powden | November 13, 2011 5:27 PM
None of these guys are difference makers. With that being said, who cares. Why not just run out the terrible prospects that we have, the terrible veterans that we have, and then maybe sign a few arms so our young guys are stretched out beyond their abilities (since none can get out of the 4th inning). Whether it is Maholm or someone else, who cares. It won't be a different maker.
Posted by: King of the Donkeys | November 13, 2011 5:30 PM
Why do people believe that if you have a gold glover at every position who can't hit, you just can't lose. With the Orioles it's a mute point, being they don't have any pitchers who can keep the ball in the yard everyone should easily win a gold glove. They'll never have any opportunities to make errors.
Posted by: John K | November 13, 2011 7:08 PM
Maholm maybe, otherwise pass as it would just be a re-run of years past.
Posted by: Nic | November 13, 2011 7:24 PM
At least you are setting the bar low, pathetic, and highly disappointing. Aka a typical Angelos offseason. Although you need to include a late 30s, over the hill "used to be" for our big name recognition signing.
Posted by: Jedd | November 13, 2011 7:31 PM
Some trade ideas:
Avery, Morneau (both from Georgia), and Reimold to the Braves for Prado and Jurjens. Prado can play 3rd, 2nd and the OF.
Andino to the Phillies for pitching prospect Austin Hyatt. Andino is at his peak worth now and if they keep him on the bench waiting for B.Rob to go on the DL he'll get rusty and become worthless. If the Orioles fatten the pot they might get Dominic Brown thrown in the deal whom I think the Phillies might make available. All this assuming the Phillies don't resign Rollins.
Posted by: John K | November 13, 2011 7:49 PM
First of all the Orioles don't need a 2B. We have an up and coming Robert Andino. What needs to happen is that acquisition of a 3B, 1B, & LF. Reynolds and his poor glove need to hold down the DH spot. Get ready for a lot of losing in 2012.
Posted by: goldmurano | November 13, 2011 8:10 PM
Steve,
What are you saying here, are you working for Peter. Lets not sign players just bc they cheap. We need strong starting pitching:
MARK BEUHRLE- HE wont come here
Edwin Jackson - He wont come either
Good relievers and a closer.
Please say goodbye to Reimhold in LF he is AAA at best.
I dont want to settle for 70 wins again
Posted by: smitty15 | November 13, 2011 8:23 PM
After reading your article it's obvious the O's have been going to you for advice on signing players. The four players you listed above should not be signed by the O's. They are FA's for a reason.....they're average players. In case you didn't hear, we play in the AL East and finish last almost every year. We don't need average players......we already have plenty of them!!!
Posted by: Tom D | November 13, 2011 9:51 PM
3b/1b - Reynolds & 2b - Roberts to NYY for 1b - Texiera & 2b/Ss/3b - Eduardo Nunez
Are you out of your mind... who would make that trade. A 200 strikeout hitter, and a often injured old second baseman, for one of the best first baseman in the game.. YEAH RIGHT!!!
Posted by: Graig | November 14, 2011 6:41 AM
These players sound like the type of players that one would expect to the Florida Marlins talk about signing. But, stop!! We can't disrespect the Marlins like that anymore. Even they're in talks with several of the games biggest Free Agents.
Pittsburgh & Baltimore to purely football cities..... Well, Pitt. does have hockey.
Posted by: goldmurano | November 14, 2011 8:33 AM
This article is pointless. All of the mentioned free agents will be signed before Angelos opens his purse and allow the moths to fly away. Same song, 900th verse.
Posted by: Lee | November 14, 2011 9:35 AM
In a word: Garbage.
Posted by: sizemo | November 14, 2011 11:45 AM
Maybe I was too harsh on MacPhail. Maybe we now see why he did what he did, didn't do what he could have done, and refused to give his friend another year at a thankless post.
And maybe it's not a conspiracy theory that other up-and-coming GM's chose to stay down-and-out when it came to this hopeless franchise -- some preferring a lesser position.
Someone said another 70-92 season. Another? It's been a half-decade since the zerO's have been that good. And with lateral moves to get us all up in a lather, "another" was the correct word, 70-92 is just a closer pipe dream than 81-81.
Maybe we should discuss how Angelos looks like the Muppet in the balcony.
Posted by: waspman | November 14, 2011 12:32 PM
Same old, same old here.
Hey O's reporters,
Can you tell us what's going to be different about the Dan Duquette Era? Because, right now, it looks like we're going to end up with a handful of 5th tier free agents (Maholm, Ellis, Kubel) and we're going to be counting on 27-year-old "prospects" (Reimold, Andino, etc.) and rotation full of not-so-young guns (Matusz, Arrieta, etc.) to magically turn this team into a contender.
Sounds exactly like the Andy MacPhail Era.
Which was exactly like the Beattie/Flanagan Era.
Which was exactly like the Syd Thrift Era.
So what's going to be different?
And, more importantly, when is it going to happen?
Posted by: Anonymous | November 14, 2011 12:52 PM
Just trade everyone. Who cares? The only way you get more talent in the farm system is to trade players like Jones, Weiters, Markakis, Britton, Arrieta, Hardy, etc. The O's will NEVER win with what they have when they won't spend the money to bring in real MLB talent.
Posted by: Frank Rizzo | November 14, 2011 12:55 PM
These all look like a bunch of dogs that would perpetuate mediocrity.
Posted by: bob Gatty | November 14, 2011 1:05 PM
The Orioles already have a Paul Maholm - his name is Jeremy Guthrie.
Low ERA, no run support, few wins.
Posted by: Scot from Gettysburg | November 14, 2011 1:44 PM
3b/1b - Reynolds & 2b - Roberts to NYY for 1b - Texiera & 2b/Ss/3b - Eduardo Nunez
Skip Nunez. How about they give us Cano instead. And then we can give them Accardo for Sabathia? Yea, thats the ticket! If we could swing the deal the O's would be great.
Posted by: Quizicat | November 14, 2011 1:59 PM
Same sh** different year. But at least now we have a GM who is looking to come back after a decade out of the game. Maybe he'll have a comeback like Garrett Atkins.
Posted by: LittleMugsy06 | November 14, 2011 7:54 PM
What the O's should do is skip all of the average free agents. They could do just as well leaving Reimold in left and Chris Davis at 3rd. They should sign one or two MAJOR, IMPACT free agents and skip the has-beens. They've been doing the same crap for 15 years. When will they ever learn? Oh, yeah... let's spend 8 or 10 million on 3 flawed players who aren't any better than our minor leaguers but avoid the guys who can actually help our team because they are too risky. God, I'm sick of this.
Posted by: Jerry L. | November 14, 2011 9:11 PM
Not impressed - lets continue to develop our young players.
Posted by: LMc_ORF | November 14, 2011 9:45 PM
I second Special Ed - Underwhelming!!!!!
Posted by: Henry | November 15, 2011 9:14 AM
By your list of potential free agents the Orioles may look at, I get the sense you feel Orioles management does not think that their pitching staff is good enough to contend even if they spend $200mil+ on free agent bats (remember grow the pitchers, buy the bats?).
Essentially, this lineup isn't good enough to compete given our staff:
Hardy
Markakis
Fielder
Ortiz
Jones
Weiters
Reynolds
Reimold
Andino
If even that lineup isn't good enough, the O's are a million miles from being competitive.
Posted by: bumbryfan | November 15, 2011 9:33 AM
Do you think we could scare the "Dickens" out of Angelos by getting in one of his dreams w/ "A Christmas Carol", only more gruesome. Point out his meddling ways with ghosts of the past 14 consecutive years. Nah, he'd just laugh all the way to the bank.
Posted by: Henry | November 15, 2011 11:03 AM
LOL, the O's had better hire a few more people to handle the wave of season ticket requests if they land one of these cats.
Posted by: Sizzle | November 15, 2011 12:48 PM
Trade Adam Jones to Washington for Lombardozzi(2B) and one of their young pitchers. By all means, the Orioles need pitching desperately.
Posted by: D Leaberry | November 15, 2011 3:24 PM
Most of these comments are plain stupid. The trades mentioned are for positions. Trades are made based on contracts. Tex isn't comming to bmore , his contract is toooo friggin huge for Angelos. And the rest of the players mentioned won't play in B-more. Lets see , hmmmmm what can DQ do as a GM.
Posted by: Phil G | November 15, 2011 6:53 PM
It's the starting pitching, stupid!
Posted by: Jim | November 16, 2011 8:41 AM