Pick 2 or 3 free-agent starting pitchers for the 2012 Orioles

On Monday I asked you which first baseman you’d rather sign to a long-term contract: Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder.
Many of you answered: A pitcher.
Just because I have been sniffing stale beer in this smoky joint for the past four years doesn’t mean my brain is so mushy that I can’t take a hint. (Plus, I want to give you guys something to chew on this morning with your terrible Ravens hangover).
So let’s talk free-agent pitching.
It is a much sought-after commodity. And it is often a painful temptress – how often has a big-money free agent failed to live up to expectations? Just ask Boston Red Sox fans.
That said, Monday’s Connolly’s patrons were right (although a little off-subject).
The Orioles need starting pitching help more than anything at this point. They need an ace. And, frankly, they need a No. 2. That would allow Jeremy Guthrie (if he isn’t dealt away in his final season before free agency) to be slated comfortably at No. 3.
Then Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton and Tommy Hunter can battle for the final two rotation spots and Brian Matusz can begin the season at Triple-A with no pressure.
That, of course, is a dreamier scenario than signing Fielder or Pujols.
Because there really is only one true ace possibly available on the free-agent market: CC Sabathia. And it’s not even guaranteed that he’ll be there. He is signed by the New York Yankees through 2015 at $23 million a year.
He can opt out this offseason, and there is a sense he may. But he’s not opting out so he can come to Baltimore. He’ll probably be looking at $25 million annually for the next five years – and maybe more – for a perennial winner.
The Orioles have never given a free-agent pitcher a deal beyond three years (Scott Erickson’s was an extension, and a disaster, by the way) and have never topped Miguel Tejada’s $72 million deal for an overall investment.
So Sabathia is out. The next up is the Texas Rangers’ C.J. Wilson, who has ties to Orioles manager Buck Showalter and pitching coach Rick Adair. But he could be seeking a five-year deal as well. The Orioles likely would lose their second-round pick in the 2012 amateur draft (their first is protected) by signing Wilson; it would be surprising if the Rangers didn’t offer him arbitration.
The next most intriguing pitcher is 25-year-old Japanese phenom Yu Darvish, who may or may not play in the United States. If he does, it probably is a $100 million investment if you combine the posting fee (paid to Nippon so that a MLB team can negotiate with Darvish) and the actual contract.
After that, there are guys who don’t qualify as aces, but are still pretty good pitchers. On Monday, the Philadelphia Phillies declined a $16 million option on Roy Oswalt, preferring to pay him a $2 million buyout. So the 34-year-old is a free agent, but the Phillies would like to re-sign him to a lesser deal. (It would be a shock if he were offered arbitration, so the draft pick wouldn’t be an issue here.)
There’s also Chicago White Sox bulldog Mark Buehrle, St. Louis Cardinals enigma Edwin Jackson, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Hiroki Kuroda and two starters who had somewhat resurgent seasons in the Yankees’ Freddy Garcia and the Atlanta Braves' Javier Vazquez.
Beyond those guys, it’s a hodgepodge of has-beens, injury risks and roll-the-dicers.
But maybe you can find some hidden gold there.
Here’s a list (it’s a little old, but should work for our purposes) from that wonderful website Cot’s Baseball Contracts. I want you to tell me your top choices for the Orioles to snag in free agency. Try to be somewhat realistic (CC, C.J. and Yu is far-fetched for the Yankees, not to mention the Orioles).
Daily Think Special: Choose two or three free-agent starters you’d most like to see on the 2012 Orioles. Give me a reason why.
Mark Buehrle CWS
Bruce Chen KC
Aaron Cook COL *
Kyle Davies TOR
Ryan Dempster CHC *
Justin Duchscherer BAL
Zach Duke ARI *
Jeff Francis KC
Freddy Garcia NYY
Jon Garland LAD
Aaron Harang SD
Rich Harden OAK
Livan Hernandez WAS
Edwin Jackson STL
Kenshin Kawakami ATL
Scott Kazmir LAA
Hiroki Kuroda LAD
Rodrigo Lopez CHC
Paul Maholm PIT
John Maine COL
Jason Marquis WAS
Kevin Millwood NYY
Scott Olsen PIT *
Roy Oswalt PHI *
Brad Penny DET
Oliver Perez NYM
Joel Pineiro LAA
CC Sabathia NYY (may opt out)
Carlos Silva NYY
Javier Vazquez FLA
Adam Wainwright STL *
Tim Wakefield BOS
Chien-Ming Wang WAS
Brandon Webb ARI
C.J. Wilson TEX
Chris Young NYM
*Means there is a 2012 option involved
Categories: Connolly's Corner Sports Bar




Comments
Ideally:
1. Marquis
2. Harang
3. Wainwright
Posted by: Matt | October 25, 2011 2:54 AM
Dempster, Harang, Oswalt (dream scenario) possibly buehrle. These are all durable guys. Inning eaters with a history of solid baseball. Dempster and harang wont cost more than 20 to 25 mil a year to hold down the 1 and 2 spots in the rotation while the rest of our guys develop (and whoever replaces mcFAIL restocks the system with real talent)
Posted by: Andrew | October 25, 2011 3:28 AM
Buehrle
Garland
Webb
Reasoning: they are all high groundball percentage pitchers, which helps keep the ball inside the fences in the "hitters" park, OPACY.
Posted by: Beaned1 | October 25, 2011 5:13 AM
I like Wilson and Jackson.
Most of the rest to me would be crapshoots. Buehrle and Sabathia stand out among them, but C.C. is as absurdly overpriced as he is overweight and pitching on borrowed time with his slobby body. Buehrle COULD be that staff leader we've been seeking. However, he's not a wise multi-year investment at his age.
Wilson is getting better every season and his Adair/Buck connection is intriguing. I'd go $28million for 4 years for C.J.
I liked Edwin Jackson when he was with Tampa. He has a live arm and, to me, needs only to settle in somewhere in order to fulfill his potential. I'd chance a 3-year deal on him with no worries. I'd go as high as $15million for the three years.
Posted by: Bear the Birdfan | October 25, 2011 5:16 AM
I'll be a realist here, and pick pitchers we'd actually have a shot at signing:
1. Edwin Jackson (still young and proved he can pitch well just about anywhere)
2. Jon Garland (solid veteran presence & innings eater that we could probably get on a 1-2 year contract)
3. Freddy Garcia (keeps getting written off by teams and then comes back to have a solid season. I think Yankees will probably resign though)
I wish we could go for Javier Vasquez, but something tells me he's not suited for the AL East after the failure in NY.
I'd be open to Brandon Webb on a Duscherer-type contract that kicks in more $$$ if he stays healthy. Would be more expensive than Duscherer of course.
What's also a little scary is the number of ex-Orioles on this list who bombed for us but somehow have stuck around a while.
Posted by: Mike in LA | October 25, 2011 6:13 AM
First of all I can't believe Bruce Chen and Rodrigo Lopez are still pitching. I'll pass on them.
Whatever the O's do, they need to make a commitment. The best way to attract free agents is to commit to them - multiple years and competitive dollars. Otherwise, we'll be welcoming Messrs. Chen and Lopez, or ones like them that are looking to hang on, into the rotation.
I'll take Maholm and Wilson. Two plus-arms with lots of upside, still looking to build their careers but have experienced success. I'm giving Wilson 5 years, Maholm 3.
Wilson, Guthrie, Maholm, Hunter, Arrietta, Matusz, Britton. Save Our Bullpen, please.
The Rangers and Cards are winning with young guys with just-as-unknown pedigrees.
Posted by: Jasphil | October 25, 2011 7:17 AM
I narrowed the list down to realistic options for improvement and will break it down further from that point.
Buehrle
Garcia
Harden
Jackson
Kazmir
Kuroda
Maholm
Maine
Millwood
Oswalt
Penny
Sabathia
Vazquez
Wainwright
Wang
Webb
Wilson
Young
Darvish
Out of those some are oft-injured and are high risk / high reward. Some are hit or miss. If Andy Macphail were here these would be our options.:
Young
Webb
Harden
Kazmir
Maine
Millwood
Penny
Garcia
Here is the list we should be shopping from:
Jackson
Kuroda
Maholm
Buehrle
Oswalt
Sabathia
Vazquez
Wainwright
Wilson
Darvish
Of those, the ones we have the best shot of getting based on geographics and or potential with realistic salary demands.
C.J. Wilson
Maholm
Jackson
Vazquez
Webb (only because of the upside)
Kuroda
They should absolutely try to get:
Wilson
Kuroda
Maholm
They should make a small offer to Webb should he be ready to pitch this year, heavy on incentives. If he can return to form after two surgeries this could be a steal.
Wilson for obvious reasons is a solid number 1 or 2 pitcher.
Maholm has ties to the mid-atlantic area and is used to pitching for a perennial loser so he may sign for a change of scenery and closer to home.
The real under the radar guy is Kuroda who could be brilliant. A guy who knows how to pitch. A solid number 2 in almost any rotation. Will he come to the East Coast? Who knows?
Those are my thoughts for affordable realistic options, that will greatly improve our rotation.
Posted by: George In Reisterstown | October 25, 2011 7:47 AM
Dan, you already said it......
"Beyond those guys, it’s a hodgepodge of has-beens, injury risks and roll-the-dicers"
That's what Angelos will allow the GM to sign. To qualify as a possible signee, the pitcher will have to be willing to sign for no more than 2 yrs. max (and that's push'in it), and let's not forget the 5 million ceiling for annual salary. We'll have to wait until the serious teams are finished signing the desirable pitchers and see what's left over. The new Oriole Way.....sign 'em when they got no place else to go.
Posted by: dspedden | October 25, 2011 7:55 AM
Mark Buerhle, Edwin Jackson, and Jon Garland.
Posted by: Jim | October 25, 2011 8:02 AM
Kuroda is the best pitcher on the list not named Sabathia. Wilson would be good because he has pitched in a bandbox, and i'm not sure how Kuroda would do in the AL with all the small ballparks. He is also 36.
I would also give Harden and CM Wang a thought.
Other than those four, nothing on that list looks enticing.
Posted by: Jim L | October 25, 2011 8:09 AM
Connelly please! With C.C. Sabathia being the lone exception, that this front office would never consider, the rest of these guys aren't any better than what we already have.You guys at the Sun really do try to distract us from the the real problems with the O's, the ownership. Until that changes we're just a one pitcher team in a two hitter stadium in a one dog town.
--
Hey Nitty: You are right. I am trying to distract you. It's my sinister plan. Or look at it this way: The owner is the owner. In that definition, it means he owns the team. You can't get rid of him. The GM can't. The Sun can't. That is what it is. So you want to completely stop talking Orioles because of that? Fine. Riide into the sunset on your beaten horse. Or put that one to rest and focus on other components of the team.
Posted by: mrnitty | October 25, 2011 8:12 AM
Chien-Ming Wang successfully transited from surgery and impressed everyone late in the season. John Maine, so we can cat-call him.
Posted by: mojito | October 25, 2011 8:55 AM
The #1 priority should be durability, even if the guy is mediocre. Taking a risk on an injury prone guy with potential upside is not going to cut it (like the Duchsherer signing from last year).
If the guy is a 12-12 pitcher with a low to mid 4 ERA, that is still better than what we have as long as he is giving us 200+ innings. That will take the pressure off some of the young starters that we are still hoping will turn out.
That being said, the three names I suggest are Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson and Paul Maholm. You need to get two guys like that. I think you know what you are going to get from those guys, except Edwin Jackson who I think has the potential to be better than what he has done so far. The key is that these guys, though generally mediocre, will eat up the innings and are not likely to get hurt.
Posted by: Mike from VT | October 25, 2011 8:56 AM
The thing that kills me is everyone thinks that Baltimore is a horrible destination for a free agent, especially a pitcher. The ballpark is too hitter friendly, the team is terrible, the owner is a yo-yo, yada, yada, yada.
But the fact remains that this here town of ours, with all of its warts, has the potential of being a baseball powerhouse. The stadium, if a little too hitter happy, is still a true gem, one of the best, if not the best, in the game. The fan base is passionate, if somewhat disillusioned. They are just waiting, craving to be titillated. And the team itself has some serious possibilities.
Wouldn't it be a feather in anyone's cap to come here and lead the resurgence? That would have to be the first selling point to any free agent, stroke their ego by telling them they could be the one to lead this team to the promised land. It's not like Baltimore is unknown, ya know. This is a team with history and cache and anyone who watched last season's last game couldn't help but be entranced. All that might just fit into the equation.
I degress because honestly, the answer to Dan's question is pretty obvious. Sure, we'd all love to have CC(wouldn't it be great if he won a game in Yankee Stadium for the Orioles that knocked the Yanks out and put the Orioles in?) or CJ or Oswalt. And with enough cash, they might bite. The much maligned owner has spent mass quantities in the past and knows he will have to again in the future. Might as well go for the gusto.
The new GM will be looking to make a splash, so, hell yeah, go get CC, give him his 25-30 for six years, and maybe get after Oswalt or CJ as well. And maybe sign a Webb or Harden just to see if they can turn into anything. If nothing else, offering 28 to CC will only drive up the price someone else will have to pay.
And if not CC, then there are a lot of solid secondary arms out there, Hernandez, Garland, Pineiro, or Marquis, to name a few. And a few of them might be enticed to show up at OPACY. Any will do, and they are needed. All that is needed is to just get it done.
--
Ken: Well said. The problem is the elite pitcher would rather have a shot at the playoffs every year than the idea of leading a team back. That's ego and extra money (in playoff shares). You can sell your idea with the second tier, and they have. They've even tried with the rare, first-tier player (Remember Miguel Tejada's spring training entrance and "we're not losing here anymore"). But the simple fact -- no matter the fan base, the stadium, etc., -- the only ways an elite player comes here is if he gets grossly overpaid or the market for him bottoms out. Otherwise, that ghost of 14 losing seasons looms large.
Posted by: ken | October 25, 2011 9:04 AM
Let the O's scouts filter the available list. However, for a change, let's get a healthy, in-his-prime, proven 12+ game winner, who can last more than six innings. No more worn out has-beens, gotten on the cheap, just to fill a roster spot. No more "innings-eaters" who last seven innings but have 8+ ERA.
Many O's fans DO know talent when they see it, or a fraud when they see it. Only hope the brass stops getting "bodies" to fill the roster, but give us quality for a real change, when they acquire players.
Posted by: Harold | October 25, 2011 9:11 AM
1 roy oswalt
2adamwainwright 3 c.j wilson
Posted by: dcrich | October 25, 2011 9:15 AM
Buehrle
Oswalt
Jackson
Wilson is overrated and his post season performance has been awful.
Posted by: Jim Carter | October 25, 2011 9:55 AM
Not the best pickings that's for sure once you evaluate their numbers (forget wins and loses).
Lets eliminate all the guys as old as me, all the guys that are as injury prone as me, and all the guys who don't pitch better than me.
By my count we have Buehrle, CC, Wilson and a guy named Paul Maholm left.
I'd go strong after Maholm first at 29 because he can pitch and should be reasonably priced for a 3-4 year deal.
CC at 31, Wilson at 31 should be worth 4-year deals.
Buehrle at 32 could get a 3 year deal.
But that's about it. CC, Maholm and Wilson for me.
Posted by: Dennis in WV | October 25, 2011 10:22 AM
Brandon Webb and CJ Wilson would be high on my wish list.
Posted by: Ptbnl | October 25, 2011 10:36 AM
1.) Brooks Robinson
2.) Frank Robinson
3.) Jim Palmer
Posted by: TruthBeTold | October 25, 2011 11:37 AM
Chen, Lopez, and Maine. 'Cause it's the all Oriole Retread class, baby!
Posted by: JohnBoy | October 25, 2011 12:17 PM
Please remove Javier Vazquez from the list. He is allergic to the American League. His ERA is almost always below 4.00 when on a National League team but, it is up around 5.00 when he is on an American League team. Stay away, far, far, away!
--
Fair enough. I knew someone would mention his New York disasters. Yeah, there'd be concern about him pitching in the AL East.
Posted by: Jim M. | October 25, 2011 12:38 PM
I would go with:
CJ Wilson
Edwin Jackson
Scott Kazmir
Provide the perfect amount of experience and threat to a young bullpen. I'd go with them.
Posted by: Chris H | October 25, 2011 1:34 PM
Dan-
How about Erik Bedard, he may be injury prone but has the lowest ERA in Camden Yards of any qualifying pictures. He is a cheap option. High risk but high reward. My other guy I would go after is Edwin Jackson because of his potential and age. He may walk a bunch of guys but has nasty stuff and is only 27 I believe.
What do you think? Thanks
--
Jackson has nasty stuff. I'd be interested, but he's so up and down. But boy is he talented. As for Erik, I saw him pitch twice in Spetember and he's not the Bedard I remember. The injuries have taken a toll on his stuff and his location was awful. And he still doesn't pitch deep into games. I have no problem with Erik personally, unlike some others. In fact, he amuses me. But you can't count on him for a 2012 rotation imo. He might be a nice surprise but he can't be one of your five to start the year.
Posted by: Brandon | October 25, 2011 1:57 PM
With Angelos in charge, swap pitching staffs with the Astros. Most of them have some batting experience.
Posted by: Lee | October 25, 2011 2:52 PM
Wilson
Garland
Buehrle
Wilson is a solid 1 and buehrle and garland have pitched together and can give us at lease 200 innings and if you trade guthrie for one or two solid minors you can have a 3 way battle between arietta, britton and hunter for 4 and 5 spot.
Posted by: brett | October 25, 2011 2:56 PM
Go after the pitchers who give up fewer home runs (probably fewer fly balls)... Like Wainwright, Maholm, Bedard...
Posted by: DonM | October 25, 2011 3:05 PM
Based on performance, durability, and talent, the Orioles should only go after the following 7 pitchers:
1. C.C. Sabathia (if he's available).
2. C.J. Wilson
3. Mark Buehrle
4. Adam Wainwright (probably won't be available, and is injured, but is an ace when healthy).
5A. Roy Oswalt - 34 with back issues, but is a solid veteran and good example when healthy.
5B. Ryan Dempster - 35, but has been a workhorse in the past. May not be available with $14m option, but could be a solid #2 behind Wilson.
7. Yu Darvish - he's only this far down the list because I don't think we have a shot at him.
8. Edwin Jackson - younger (28), but I'm not a big fan of his. He's not a consistent winner. He is the classic definition of an innings eater. Will win 12-14 games a year with a 4+ ERA and 200+ IP, but that's about it. It's not bad, but I'm not paying big money for that (Boras is his agent).
Posted by: Tom McAllister | October 25, 2011 3:16 PM
OMG. Remember when Lopez was our ace. He was worse than Guthrie.
Only Buehrle makes sense here. Hunter, Britton and Arrieta have to stay in the rotation with Guthrie as the second starter.
Posted by: cd bell | October 25, 2011 3:46 PM
If Jose Contreras is out there we can get him Buehrle, Garland, and Garcia and reunite the winning 05 WS rotation.
But seriously:
Oswalt
Jackson
Webb
Posted by: Rob B | October 25, 2011 3:57 PM
I hate saying it but that entire list doesn't impress me.
Outside of CC who will ONLY opt out of his contract to move closer to his home in the west coast. Honestly he won't get anymore anywhere. He has seen how bad Yankee fans can be when he doesn't throw a shutout. He won't be coming here or even Boston no matter what cash they throw at him.
Again I say Adam Wainwright who could work closely with Jim Johnson. Almost two for the price of one. He will be ready and heathly by opening day.
CJ Wilson will get a boatload for just being an average pitcher.
New Rotation
Adan Wainwright
Jeremy Guthrie
Tommy Hunter
Jim Johnson
Jake Arrieta
Britton and Matusz back to Norfolk unless we trade Jeremy for propects
Posted by: Scott D | October 25, 2011 4:47 PM
Dan...if the O's trade to bring Koji back, as has been previously speculated, do you think having a Japanese player on the roster would give them any kind of edge for Darvish?
Posted by: Christopher | October 25, 2011 5:30 PM
Buehrle
Hernandez
Oswalt
...because all three know pitching and may be able to teach the Os young arms.
On another topic...did you note that the Dodgers slashed their seasons ticket prices by up to 60% because they (ONLY) drew 2.9M fans last year?
Posted by: Captive Fan | October 25, 2011 6:20 PM
Who cares? Just more false hopes and promises. Can we trade for another owner?
Posted by: Billy Krouse | October 25, 2011 7:50 PM
I think Buehrle is an absolute must. He's a tough inning eater who will teach the two young lefties how to be an efficient game manager. CJ Wilson does not impress me at all, especially watching him this postseason. You know what you are getting with Buehrle.
I'd love to see them take a chance on Webb and I also believe the chance on somebody like Kazmir could benefit. It wasn't too long ago when these guys were on top of their game, could be just the thing they both need.
Buehrle
Jake Arrieta
Guthri
Webb
Kaz or Britton.
I think Hunter is close to becoming a quality starter who may be able to get us some innings, we just need him to learn to keep his pitch count down. He kept us in a lot of games, however had to exit those same games 2 innings earlier then he should of.
The offense is going to continue to get better, if the rotation was "marginal" this year it was not an understatement for us to be around the .500 mark. I'm just praying for the day that the atmosphere at Camden Yards returns. That September Night when they ended the hopes of the Red Sox Nation was something special, it sure would be sweet to taste the postseason around here.
Posted by: Andrew Stoner | October 25, 2011 9:15 PM
those who aren't impressed with Wilson just don't follow baseball. he had a couple of rough games this postseason but was fine last night. he had a top-10 WAR this season (better than Jered Weaver, King Felix, Kennedy, Carpenter, Hamels, Lincecum, Beckett, etc.), has a marketable personality that would do wonders for a team absolutely bereft interesting characters and has done nothing but improve every season. if you want a good comparison, think Cliff Lee circa 5 seasons ago.
Posted by: shf9 | October 25, 2011 10:41 PM
Buehrle
Jackson
Garland
3 pitchers that eat innings, have proven success in the AL and could come to Charm City at a reasonable cost.
I also like Kuroda a lot and would hope that he would encourage the return of Koji.
Posted by: Steve in California | October 25, 2011 11:10 PM
You forgot to add a couple more Japanese free agents who will be unrestricted free agents (no posting fee needed) in Tsuyoshi Wada (whom I think is a lefty version of Koji), and Hisashi Iwakuma. Both guys are control artists who toss around 89-91 max fastballs and throw sneaky forkball/sinkers. Both can make bats miss at times, both can be hit often and hard at times.
I would be pretty shocked if the Orioles aren't working to sign one of those pitchers, and I would think it would be Wada. Iwakuma is said to be looking for a pretty hefty deal.
Posted by: The Mythical One | October 26, 2011 12:51 AM
I do follow baseball more then anyone I know. MLB network is on my tv almost everyday, several times a day.
My point with CJ Wilson is not to think of him as Cliff Lee of five years ago. Cliff Lee of 5 years ago would not have gotten a 5 year deal like CJ is going to get. If you remember Cliff Lee back then was left OFF the Cleveland postseason roster.
CJ is a good pitcher no doubt about it, but I don't think he has the makeup of an ace pitcher like we need.
Having thought of this more Mark Buehrle has pitched 200 innings well for 11 seasons.
New Rotation
Adan Wainwright
Mark Buehrle
Tommy Hunter
Jim Johnson
Jake Arrieta
Posted by: Scott D | October 26, 2011 12:13 PM
Kuroda
Jackson
Maholm
Wakefield
Why?
Wakefield - one more year. Throw that knuckler. Whwn was the last time the Os had a knuckler? Have a feeeling on this one. Comeback?
Jackson - Good arm, menacing on mound. Remember Alan Mills. When he came in, he looked like a bad***.
Kuroda - Great stuff, presence, tough - Koji?
Maholm - A feeling.
Thanks for letting me share - J
Posted by: ISAAOG | October 26, 2011 1:45 PM
Wilson
Buehrle
Joe Nathan
Posted by: Chuck in Pa | October 26, 2011 6:58 PM
1) Paul Maholm
2) Mark Buehrle
3) C.J. Wilson
All 3 would be an upgrade but I think Buehrle and Wilson will stay put.
Posted by: Rainbow | October 28, 2011 3:15 PM
buerle, Garland and Oswalt, innings eaters, + 8 man bullpen , 3 man bench(andino, catcher and 4th outfielder), get Cuddyear.
Posted by: mel mintz | October 31, 2011 8:11 PM