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August 9, 2011

Will the Orioles lose 100 games this season?


It’s an unpleasant topic.

But really, what isn’t unpleasant about the Orioles right now?

They have lost eight of their last 10 and 28 of their last 37. They haven’t won a series in more than a month (June 24-26).

And, that begs the question that was floating around the press box Monday night after the Orioles threw a game away to the Chicago White Sox: Will these Orioles do it?

Will they lose 100 games?

Right now, they are 44-68, which means they are on pace to go 64-98.

Through 112 games last year, they were 38-74 and staring 100 losses in the face. But we all know about the club’s turnaround under manager Buck Showalter in 2010. The Orioles rallied to end up 66-96.

The Orioles have lost 100 games just twice in their history, in their inaugural season in 1954 (54-100) and in the 1988 season (54-107), which began 0-21.

My call is that they won’t lose 100 this year. I’ve covered worse teams than this one, and none have lost 100 (although eight of the 10 I have covered have lost 90-plus).

Losing 100 games is really hard to do. But, then again, the schedule in the last two months of the season is brutal. And the rotation once again is decimated. So, the realist would say it is definitely in reach.

Again, I am going on record saying they don’t lose 100.

Do they?

Daily Think Special: Do the Orioles lose 100 games this year?


Posted by Dan Connolly at 6:00 AM | | Comments (67)
Categories: Connolly's Corner Sports Bar
        

Comments

Isn't it time to stick a fork in Guerrero? The guy is a disaster. He constantly comes up at the worst times, no kidding he is batting 4th, and actually does more harm than good. Last night in the 7th, he couldn't even take a pitch to let Jones attempt a steal of 2nd. He was in such a hurry to ground out to SS.

I think the lack of depth in this organization is killing us. We're losing starting pitchers left and right with no suitable replacements in sight.

I wouldn't like it, but maybe losing 100 games is just the kick in the pants this organization needs to realize that what we've got simply isn't good enough. I know the fans are fed up with it and I'm bothered by the fact that we seem to be the only ones that care.

Our roster needs to be overhauled top to bottom. Put everyone on life alert. The only untouchables are Adam Jones, JJ Hardy, Matt Wieters and Manny Machado. Everyone else needs to either start producing or get traded.

So I for one am hoping we lose 100 just so Peter Angelos stops sitting on his hands and figures out a way to get the O's back to where they were in 1966, 1970 and 1983.

I suspect that they will lose 100 games. They're only on pace for 98, like you said, but they outperformed their run differential for the first couple of months, and more to the point, they're out of pitchers with 2 months to go. I don't think it's realistic to think they'll perform better than they have so far for the rest of the season.

100, 105, 95 or whatever. The team is at best irrelevant and at worst a stuge for the Yankees and the Red Sox. More money for owners in this than trying to compete.

We certainly find ways to lose games. I don't think we will lose 100 but 90 some for sure. I agree with Joe regarding Guerrero. Why can't someone tell Vlad that it is all over....that he is done? Put someone else in there. The needs of the team outweigh the needs of just one.
Vlad is hurting the team and I am sure he knows it.

yeah

Dan please tell me the names of the teams you covered who were worse than this team. We have no minor league system,horrible scouting department,washed up has beens on the major league roster and an owner who is too cheap to spend or care. I would hope we set the record for consecutive loses so everybody can see how bad this organization really is.

--

Chuck, the first team I covered, the 2001 Orioles, lost 98, lost 15 of 16 at one point and had a pitcher make 30+ starts with an ERA almost at 6. The 2002 club lost 32 of its final 36 and how about those 2008 Orioles that had five pitchers make 10 or more starts and have a ERA 5.00 or higher (three had 6+ ERAs)? Those teams were worse. This one is more disappointing because there were some low-level expectations.

Houston has a nine game lead in the loss column on the Orioles. Nonetheless it's still possible to win the top draft choice prize. Don't underestimate the O's. 100 losses would give them a legit shot at the number one pick. It's an attainable goal for our last two months of the season.

100 LOSSES IS IN THE BAG.

Lose 100 games? Does the sun rise in the east?

I'd like to see an in-depth article on the strengths (if any) of this current organization.

One paragraph, make that one sentence, should suffice. Heck, it might even be heavily padded.

Still, it should be a quick and easy read.

Looks like a good bet. The pitching staff is a bunch of hospital cases, and unless the O's homer, they don't score. Vlad is the worst cleanup hitter we've had in my memory, yet Buck refuses to bat him anywhere else in the order.
There is really nothing positive to point to.

Yes, the Orioles will lose at least 100 games

My Take on Andy MacPhail is that He's weak. He's incompetent. He jeopardizes the whole Oriole Organization. There's not much more I can do for him, much less say! On top of all that he’s the least innovative GM out there and “Selfish” to boot! The Only GM MacPhail is better than is that shylock down in Houston, Ed Wade. The only thing Ed Wade does is trade his best players for next to nothing. You would think Bud Selig would investigate that kind of nonsense. No, instead he’s more worried A Rod if he played poker at someone’s house two or three years ago or the divorce proceedings of the owner of the Dodger. The bottom line is the Fans of the Baltimore Orioles deserve better than this!

EVERY YEAR.....

A reporter ask the good fans of Baltimore this question. And every year, the responses are ALWAYS exactly the same...

yearafteryearafteryearafteryearafteryearafteryearafteryearafteryearafteryearafteryearafteryearafteryear

No. When they had 39 victories I made the prediction that they would only win 20 more games. Sure hope I am wrong, just for their own self respect, but so far I'm looking good.

Yes 104 to be exact

I think we'll stop just short of 100 losses.

Yippee.

I meant to say yes in previous post. Vlad and Izturas should just be released. Let Bell play third, Reynolds at first, and try Davis in left. Pie and Reimhold are playing themselves out for next year. Put Johnson in the rotation now, unless he is already worn out from too many appearances. Let Adams play second in September to see if he can field well enough. Don't bring Scott (too inconsistent even when healthy) back next year, use the DH position to rotate days off for position players.

Honestly, this shouldn't even be a topic. Whether it's 95, 98, 100, or more, it's still a pig of a season. The Orioles are no closer to being a competitive team than they were last year.

It was hysterical to listen to Flanagan and Thorne talk about Danks' efficiency on the mound ... like he was doing something. The Orioles REFUSE to work the counts. They absolutely refuse to do it ... and it's disgusting to watch the blatant and appalling lack of approach at the plate.

Guthrie struggled in the 6th and could have used a bit of a break. What do our Orioles do? Vladdy grounds out on 1 pitch, Reynolds strikes out on 4 pitches and Reimold lined out on 3 pitches.

8 FREAKING PITCHES and Guthrie is back on the mound.

There are just so many things completely wrong with this team. I'd bet everthing that I own that this Orioles team couldn't win their division if they played at Double-A Bowie.

I have a family of 5 ... and I will NEVER purchase tickets to an Orioles game until they start to put a quality product on the field. Which wouldn't bother my 7-year old son who told me that he doesn't want to root for the Orioles anymore because they never win. He wants to be a Nats fan like most of his friends in our area.

Thanks, Angelos, McPhail, and the Orioles FO for the mess you've created for 14 years. It certainly would have been "horrible" to be able to enjoy taking my son to Oriole games and have something to actually root for.

This team sucks and will continue to suck for many years. I'm angry and I'm bitter about what has happened to this once proud organization.

Bad teams find a way to lose. I'm confident they can find a way to lose 100.

The question on this forum should be rephrased..."Why wouldn't this team lose 100 games?" seems more appropriate.

Yes Dan,

They will lose at least 104 games in Andy Macphail's 4th full year of "The Plan." The sad fact is, you could see it all coming after Andy had been on board for 18 months. He quickly demonstrated that his management style was obsolete and woefully incremental, in a situation that called for a GM with his hair on fire. The competition in the division has gotten better while the Orioles have gotten worse. The major league roster is slow, unbalanced undisciplined, and still lacks an impact bat in his prime for the middle of the lineup. His failure to acquire proven starting pitching is a fireable offense on it's own. Not only have we gotten worse but the farm system is more devoid of promotable prospects than when he got here.

If Peter Angelos had one bone of baseball common sense in his body he would not only fire Andy right now but get a restraining order to keep Andy from ever having any future contact with the organization.

John did the math correctly.

They've played .274 ball for the last 51 games. If they do that for the remaining 50, they end up at 58-104.

And do you see 14 wins in the remaining schedule?

Me neither.

Is the Pope Catholic?

Is Vlady still batting cleanup?

I have been an Oriole fan for 45 years and I am not going anywhere. However, I am sick and tired of every year having this type of question posed to the readers. If Angelos ran his law firm the way he runs his baseball team he would not be the billionaire he is today.

I think Angelos should be taken to task for the way he has ruined a civic treasure. The Sun and the City Council ought to be putting pressure on him to win or sell the team.


This will be the year the O's don't have a strong finish. And, of course, this year is the year with no "lock" for the draft. No Strassburg, no Harper.

Wow Gil... and I thought I was tough on the guy....

All I can say is.....

'yeah, what he said'

I'd say yes. Like most bad teams, the Orioles find different ways to give away games every day. Last night, we failed in a couple sac fly chances (we've had problems getting productive outs all season), and our supposedly reliable reliever wasn't, so away went a late lead. Our defense at third, second, and LF has been bad all season (third is the worst of them.)

Our pitchers tend to allow opponents to score after we do, and consistently allow free baserunners (walks, errors, HBP) to score or set up runs, while the O's rarely score such runners. Our lineup is full of undisciplined, aggressive hitters, like most of the last 14 seasons. Can't win in the A.L. East like that, even if the pitching and defense would improve.

If the O's couldn't lose 100 games last year, then I don't see the O's doing it this year.

The Orioles have a horrible record in player development. Their scouting presence remains poor. Until those things change, we'll continue to suffer year after year. The easy thing to do is blame McPhail--just like we blamed Flanagan and Beattie and Thrift and Wren before them. Personally I hope they keep McPhail. But I'm not so sure I'd keep anybody in player development. When the problems are systemic and the culture is one of losing, significant changes are called for. That might mean getting rid of a bunch of good people. And it definitely means not doing the same things over and over again.

100 or 101.

A guy sitting near home plate last night wore a "Free the Birds" T-shirt. Wouldn't it be great if similar attire was visible all over the stadium?

I don't blame Vlad for swinging at the first pitch all the time. The problem is that Randolph doesn't know how to give the take sign in Spanish.

Do the Orioles crack the century mark this year? Man, I sure hope not. But it's hard to find any reason at all to be optimistic.

"I'd say yes. Like most bad teams, the Orioles find different ways to give away games every day. Last night, we failed in a couple sac fly chances (we've had problems getting productive outs all season), and our supposedly reliable reliever wasn't, so away went a late lead. Our defense at third, second, and LF has been bad all season (third is the worst of them.)

Our pitchers tend to allow opponents to score after we do, and consistently allow free baserunners (walks, errors, HBP) to score or set up runs, while the O's rarely score such runners. Our lineup is full of undisciplined, aggressive hitters, like most of the last 14 seasons. Can't win in the A.L. East like that, even if the pitching and defense would improve."

Great post, OriAl. You hit all of the right issues. The defense really bothers me. It's not all on the pitching. Teams like Minnesota win with substandard talent every year. Our better players need to stop making mistakes (Jones last night, walking Konerko and Dunn!, Hardy errors of late) and the team needs to plate runs with runners in scoring position.

101

Dan; At the beginning of the season we all pretty much thought that the team could go .500 if everything was maxed out. However,we can see that didn`t happen. Geurrero and DLee performed way below expectation. Matusz` injury along with Arrietta`s problem,and the failure of Tillman and Bergeson to take strides forward has killed the club. Reynolds is what we thought he`d be,and Hardy,Wieters and Jones seem to have stepped up their game. Poor defense,mental errors ,lack of confidence combined with a stubborn manager who refuses to move runners,get more aggressive on the bases and has failed to change his lineup are just a few of the reasons this team is in such poor shape..

Combine this with the fact that the team has failed to pursue decent free agents(Victor Martinez) and you have a recipe for disaster.To answer the question is moot. This team needs a complete overhaul in the front office. It`s obvious that there are too many people in this organization who are way too comfortable with their jobs. In any other business that was vastly underperforming heads would roll.The team needs change from the top down. A new owner with a fresh perspective and an eye for detail as to what successful organizations are doing is needed. Getting rid of most of the roster would be helpful as well. Too many of these Orioles,including the manager have accepted failure for way too long.

well dan i think you are dreaming that the orioles will lose less that 100 games this year.my feeling the will lose 100+ games. if there is any was for the orioles to lose a game they will do it.

With all due respect, what type of journalistic question is this?
What follows on Oct.1st...How Do You Feel About The Orioles Losing 99 Games?
This franchise is in shambles, Player Development is the WORST in baseball, and our Scouting Dept. is the absolute worst in baseball.
So instead of asking creampuff, non-sensical questions that have 317 different answers, how about doing some real writing & research into this mess that is the Oriole Front Office.
Then, after you put together a real article on this freakin pathetic franchise under Angelos, McFail, Stockskill, Jordan & McFail's son...then come back & ask questions.
Till then...enough of the fluff Mr. Rogers questions.

I'm as optimistic and loyal as anyone, just ask wayne and gil, but the point has come that this team needs a total overhaul. I just don't understand some of the decisions, I know Buck Showalter has forgotten more about baseball than I will ever know, but the question has to be asked, why is Guerrero not only batting cleanup, but even still on the team?

If Vlad could have been anything close to what he was the first part of last year, the Orioles might not be in the predicament, indeed, he likely would have been traded. Vlad still might be of use in the right situation, but not here. No one has more admiration and respect of Vladimir Guerrero's career than I, but the time has come to say goodbye.

This season is by far the most disappointing of the past decade because going in, there were sure signs of improvement. But who could have predicted that three or four of the young pitchers would get hurt? Who would have predicted that all of them would regress? I don't think even gil or wayne could have called that.

Just think that just about a month ago, this club was still very respectable. The funny thing is, Dan brings up a couple of clubs that didn't end up with 100 losses but had some serious bad streaks. The 2002 club, for example, was 63-63 when they went on a ten game losing streak and proceeded to lose 18 of 19. They not only didn't lose 100, they didn't even finish in last place!

I will say this, regardless of what gil or wayne say, there are some reinforcements on the farm. Frederick has the best record in its league, Bowie is in first place, even the woeful Norfolk Tides have Ryan Adams tearing the cover off the ball. Why can't he be the DH up here?

Matusz is recovering, Tillman has been respectable, if you wanna call 3-4, 4.85 respectable. But the way some people harp on him, you'd swear he was 0-7 with a 7.71 ERA. The problem is, none of the young pitchers have been able to build upon what success they've had.

Hardy has been a revelation, Reynolds, who some people thought would hit 130 with 300 K's and ten HRs, has been fine, Jones, while still showing some immaturity both on the field and at the plate, has had a very good year. People are crying over Wieters' lack of offense, but that's secondary to his development behind the plate. You try carrying what's left of this pitching staff and then try to hit. As I've said before, the guy is still just 25 and has two years in the bigs. He's not Buster Posey.

The Orioles will lose 100 games this year, they should even make a run for the number one pick, though Houston seems to have that locked up. But there are some, if very few and very dim, bright spots.

Think positive and keep the faith, my brothers and sisters!

How could any team lose 100 games after acquiring studs like Davis, Hunter, and Reyes? Now if they would only re-sign Millwood the team could start printing playoff tickets! If only we could keep Izturis healthy...he's the linchpin for the whole season.

After reading all these posts I wonder why am I an Oriole fan. I am so passionate about this team. And then I realized, that's what is missing. There is no passion to win. Our manager says nothing during his press conferences. We get squeezed constantly by umpires and nothing is ever said. He sits there like a someone waiting in a DMV waiting room. How can our team be passionate when he shows stoic acceptance. I'm not challenging his baseball knowledge but I am calling him out on his enthusiasm to bring life to this team. Back to the question of will they lose 100 games this season. So they only lose 98 or 99 what the heck is the difference. This team plays every game like they are waiting to lose, not playing to win.

Who cares?

Either way, they're going to finish in last place.

Either way, nothing is being done on the international front. Have the Orioles even signed an international free agent this year?

Either way, this horrific Owner/GM combo will never spend money on top of the line talent.

Either way, next year doesn't look any better than this year.

Past a few bright spots (namely, Jones, Hardy and Weiters), this organization is a mess from top to bottom.

After two years of "rebuilding", 2010 was supposed to be about wins and losses, right? That was the best team Andy had ever brought north, wasn't it? That didn't work out too well, did it? And what about 2011? What was 2011 supposed to be about? It seems like it's mostly about losses to me.

This team is no better than it was before Andy MacPhail was hired, and, where I come from, that's a damn good reason for Andy MacPhail to be fired. Don't let him just stroll off into the sunset when his contract expires. Hold him accountable. Wait... I don't even know who I'm talking to here. We all know that Peter Angelos will never fire his golden boy. Andy has probably made more money for the Orioles over the past four years than Thrift, Beattie and Flanagan made combined.

Whatever. This is just sad. Look at what Angelos and Andy have done to this team's fanbase. It's a damn shame...

"Losing 100 games is really hard to do." - Dan Connelly

That is totally absurd. What's so hard about losing? Losing is easy. Totally easy. Going 0-162 is easy.

The only way losing becomes hard to do is if two opponents are both trying to lose -- thereby making losing the actual goal of both opponents, and thereby making losing a form of winning which is hard to do.

So, the real question now is, "Will the Orioles do 18-32 (.360) or worse in their final 50 games?"

The Orioles have three games left with CWS and ten three-games series. If they go 1-2 in each of those, that would be 11-22. If they go 1-3 in their three four-game series and 2-3 in their five-game series, they will finish with a record of 60-102.

This team was 30-31 at one point. Since then, they have been 14-37. Finishing 18-32 at this point doesn't seem so far-fetched. Certainly winning 18 will be harder to do than losing 32.

I am reasonably certain they won't go 37-13 to make my 81-81 March prediction stand up to scrutiny. The real question will be (or should be), "Will there be any in-house scrutiny?"

Not having in-house scrutiny is as easy as losing. In fact, they often go hand-in-hand. Especially with the Orioles.

it may be a struggle but i think they can lose a 100.

I am not a baseball writer or have an inside track, but I said this team would lose at least 100 games in late April. We lack the arms and it was apparent then. We relied on has beens Vlaid and Lee a cheap free agent gimmick to attract a larger attendenance.

I do think tha this team will be sold and moved within five years. Peter A son will sell to increase his inheriience and Pete is getting to old to care. 100 loses wiill be the norm over the next several years. After that, the attencence will be so down that the team will need to move.

I went to the WHite Sox game last night, part of the Dugout club that I bought in the halcyon days on spring training. A few observations:

I arrived in the bottom of the second inning and was not the least bit surprised to find that we wer already losing 4-0. But I was very surprised at how incredibly empty the stadium was. Felt like an off day.
When we made it up to our seats, and I wanted to grab a beer, I walked and walked around the rim of teh upper deeck, finding repeatedly that concession stand after concession stand was closed, and particularly the ones which sell beer better than miller lite, coors etc...(not to say I don't like those).
Fianlly I asked the employees working the concessions why so many stands were closed - "There's only 10,000 people here today" is what I was told.
Well, I thought to myself, that's an odd way of rewarding the people who DID make it to the game, to not offer the full selection of concessions...so I said, kind of jokingly "Well, that's not my fault, I'm here" to which I was immediately replied "It's the Orioles fault because they S*&# (rhypes with Buck)" That was priceless, I wish I could have had him on video for youtube saying that in his Orange Orioles work shirt.
And the play by Jones, and then Bell, were comical in the T8. I called it as soon as he uncorked that wild throw and the runner moved to second. But what else can you expeect at an Orioles game? The crab race and Katsup/mustard/relish races were top notch though.
I wish MLB would contract the Orioles to end my misery as a fan.

I'm with many members of this forum who are calling 104 losses. It's the combination of injuries, pitching struggles and the unbalanced schedule that will seal the deal.

The ONLY thing that might (MIGHT) save them is a clear message that everyone is playing for their jobs... and that NO ONE is untouchable.

Then they should trade everyone over 30 at the end of the season anyway. Sad to say, but it's time for a new five-year plan to match that new front office that's coming.

Dan, what is the latest on signing Dylan Bundy? Knowing the way this "team" operates I am sure if it gets done it will be in the final seconds. That will mean that he won't get any experience this season. Typical Oriole Magic....feel it happen!

The who?

Let,s face it, the season has long been a disaster so why is Guerrero still batting 4th. He is killing us.
This is what we need to do.
Bring up Angle and start him in left field and bat him leadoff. Bring up Adams and start him every game at second for the rest of the year and bat him 9th.
The lineup would be:
Angle LF
Hardy SS
Jones CF
Reynolds 3B
Markakis RF
Guerrero DH
Davis 1B
Wieters C
Adams 2B

Angelos never comes to a game. The owner's box is always empty. What else do we need to know?

Does it really matter anymore? The Ravens are back in town so I doubt many people really care.

You know, the team is playing badly. They may lose 100 games because there is no place to apply a tourniquet. When Roberts went down, the hopes went down. There is no spark on the team. Jones pops up once in awhile but he's no leader. Popping bubbles while he's swinging at balls in the dirt. But, I can't blame the GM unless somebody puts down an achievable alternate plan. And not some pie-in-the-sky fantasy.

As long as Mr. Asbestos keeps getting those MASN checks....NOTHING WILL CHANGE!!!!

it doesn't BEG the question, it simply RAISES the question. learn the difference and teach it to all other journalists you can, for the love of God.

Adam Jones has been the best hitter for the Orioles this season, yet he only has a .327 OBP. This is a good example of why the Orioles are a fundamentally flawed organization.

Going to the movies instead of watching the game for the first time all season. Can't watch the Reyes retread pitch. I agree with not brooks, Steve and a few others, who cares if its 98 or 102, its still awful.

I doubt this team wins 60 but like the previous poster said: what does it matter??? We're locked into the #2 pick in June. Let's hope it turns out to be a superstar because this organization sorely needs one

We are well past that time of the year when we give up on the Os finishing at .500 and instead hope that they lose enough games so they can get a high pick in the draft... Oh, I forgot. They usually screw that up too.

They might but the future is very bright. As others have stated all you have to is look down at the A and AA teams and find lots of talent and the teams doing quite well. The AAA team is a reflection of the last remnants of what Andy inherited. If Buck wasn't excited and knew what was coming from the minors he never would have signed here.
I think we will finish strong with Matusz back in a week or two. I think Tilman is here to stay. The idea that the plan is a failure is shortsighted. Hang in there, better days are ahead!

Will the O's lose 100 games?

Is Peter Angelos Greek?

If they continue on their pace to win .200 of the remaining games, which I think is very likely since they essential have a minor league rotation at this point and a killer schedule, they will end up optimistically with 10 or 11 wins. They are on a pace to have the worst Orioles record in history. This will pencil out to 54-108 or 55-107. At least when they had comparable records ('54, '88) there was no place to go but up. This franchise doesn't look to be going up anytime soon.

They won more games when spring training was in Ft. Lauderdale.

Want to stick it to Peter Angelos? Start attending Washington Nationals games...hit him where it hurts...lol

In order to reach 100 loses the team would have to go 17-31 the rest of the way. Giving how poorly this team is playing why in the world would anyone expect them to do that well?!

Since they can't lose 200, 100 will have to do.

I love the Orioles and this is killing me . . . I don't care how bad they are . . . I'll always pull for them. Every time I look for the score I have the positive attitude that they are winning or are going to win . . . I don't live in Baltimore and my cable co doesn't provide MASN so that makes things even worse when you can watch or even hear them on the radio (yes, I know about MLB.com) . . . keep the faith everyone, it will get better (I know, how can it get worse) . . .

Yes there should realize the reader to RSS my feed to RSS commentary, quite simply

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About the bloggers
A Baltimore native, Dan Connolly has been covering sports for 14 years, and baseball and the Orioles for 10 seasons, including the past six with The Sun. His first year covering baseball on a daily basis was Cal Ripken Jr.'s final season as a player. It's believed that is just a coincidence.

Steve Gould is an assistant sports editor for The Sun, overseeing Orioles coverage. The Columbia native joined The Sun as a sports copy editor in 2006 after graduating from the University of Maryland.

Peter Schmuck has been covering baseball for a lot longer than Steve Gould has been on this earth. He is now a general sports columnist, but has been a beat writer covering three major league teams (the Dodgers, Angels and Orioles) and also spent a decade as the Sun's national baseball writer. If you want more of his insight on the Orioles and other sports issues, check out his personal blog -- The Schmuck Stops Here.


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