Groundhog Day: Starters exiting early, runners stranded
In watching the Orioles-Cardinals game Wednesday night, you half expected comedian Bill Murray to come out of the dugout and make a pitching change in the fifth or pop up with the bases loaded in the seventh.
This is becoming another Groundhog Day season in Baltimore.
You can pretty much sum up the Orioles’ woes in two simple statements: The starters can’t go deep into games, which taxes the bullpen; and the hitters can’t consistently produce with runners in scoring position, which taxes everyone who has carved out three hours to watch.
You don’t need to know anything more than those two nuggets. Except maybe the year. Is this 2011 or 2009 or 2006 or 2003?
These have been the Orioles’ two most consistent problems during this 13-season-plus losing skid.
And right now those weaknesses are challenging each other for the forefront.
Consider these stats:
The Orioles were 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position on Wednesday and are 9-for-61 (.148) in that situation in their past seven games. They are .262 with runners in scoring position this season -- which is OK -- and that shows just how bad they have been during this slump.
With Chris Jakubauskas’ five-inning outing Wednesday, the Orioles have now had just one starter who has lasted seven innings or more in their 24 June games. They’ve had no starter go over seven innings in that span, and only four times have they had a starter record an out in the seventh.
You can talk about demoting pitchers and juggling the lineup, but the fact is if your starters can’t consistently throw strikes and your offense doesn’t take advantage of run-scoring situations, you aren’t going to win many games.
And there’s not another cavalry on its way, folks. For the most part, this is what you’ve got.
So the hope is that this group can figure it out. That these young pitchers -- and veteran Jeremy Guthrie -- push deeper into games. And their so-called established hitters -- we’re talking to you Vladimir Guerrero (.222 RISP), Derrek Lee (.137), Luke Scott (.222), among others -- need to step it up.
If not, well, expect Bill Murray to be at Camden Yards through the summer.








Comments
This team has the capability of producing one of those patented losing streaks reminiscent of the Hargrove era where they could very easily be 4-16. Big swmgers who square up on few balls and now that the pitching is collapsing good buy season.
Posted by: gilgamesh1 | June 30, 2011 7:52 AM
It seems curious that all the young pitchers that have come up in the last few years suffer the same malaise. I suspect that says more about our minor league coaching capabilities than the talent level of the pitchers. I'd leave them in longer, let them learn to keep their pitch count down even if the stick is arm fatigue and the embarrassment of being literally hammered off the mound, what different will it make - they can't get past the fifth inning now anyway.
Posted by: Bill_H | June 30, 2011 8:09 AM
There's too much thinking going on in the dugout! If your pitcher is in trouble and as long as they aren't going to hurt themselves, just leave them in progressively longer to build up arm strength and learn how to pitch out of trouble. I don't often like what Jim Palmer says, but he is right when he says in his era the pitchers had to learn how to pitch deep into games because there weren't all the specialists as there are now.
Posted by: Doug | June 30, 2011 9:02 AM
That pretty much sums up my feelings. The names and faces change, but the performance of the team on the field never does.
It should be inconceivable that Andy McPhail is even being considered for a contract extension at this point. 4 years of rebuilding and we still have essentially the same set of problems we had when he got here
Posted by: Roy | June 30, 2011 9:02 AM
Why should we be surprised at these miserable pithing & RISP numbers? Anotheryear(now 14 0f them), not good pitching, fading veterans, Scott,Pie,Lee,Guerraro,Andino, playingwhen they should'nt be. All the "injuries, even extending to the minors, is baffling. I'm sure noone wants to stay here after contract, why would they.
This franchise is in a shambles.
Posted by: Joe Carper | June 30, 2011 9:07 AM
Dan --
Okay, I'm ready to give up on this bunch. Any chance we could ship this team to Indianapolis and wait for an expansion team? I'd hate to steal another team from Cleveland.
Posted by: Will from Columbia | June 30, 2011 9:17 AM
Buck, please play Reimold! He can hit. Pie can't. Is it really that hard to see?
Posted by: Brandon | June 30, 2011 9:23 AM
In any small sample, you can identify troubling statistics (RISP over the Orioles' last seven games, a.k.a. less than 5 per cent of the schedule) but the bigger problem is pitching. Young pitchers are often inconsistent, throwing a lot more pitches than they should which, if the manager has a fast hook, puts a strain on the bullpen. And Showalter does seem to have a rather fast hook. Did anyone ask why Jakubauskas was taken out so early last night? It was good to see Bergesen pitch effectively in relief (Is Showalter contemplating Bergesen start in Texas?) but there was no obvious reason to remove Jakubauskas. Is Showalter having his pitchers pitch short stints so that the bullpen gets some work with all the off days the Orioles have had in June? A manager is not required to pull a pitcher; he chooses when to replace a pitcher. Carpenter threw something like 130 pitches last night...
...............................................................................................
Jeff Z's reply: No, Showalter would love his starters to get deep in the game. He thought the Orioles still had a chance to win that game last night and Jak wasn't exactly in control. Every inning was a struggle including the fifth.
Posted by: DonM | June 30, 2011 9:24 AM
Nobody's feelings should be hurt from these losses. Take your orange shades off. The Orioles are a BAD team. Teams like they Reds and Cardinals are supposed to manhandle chumps like the O's and they are doing so.
This what MacPhail put together, and the outcome is not shocking: garbage in and garbage out.
It's hard not to notice the disgust and frustration on Buck's face, every time the camera focuses on him. I wonder how much longer he will put up with this mess. It certainly would send some shock waves should he decide to call it quits.
Posted by: Mesotheliangelos | June 30, 2011 10:11 AM
I am NOT using the following as an excuse, but it is an accurate statement.
There have been numerous times this year where innings have been prolonged because an Oriole pitcher doesn't get a strike call. It seems that the batter that gets the break, lines a double to the gap two pitches later and the flood gates open.
Also, in the same manner, there have been instances that Oriole batters have been put in a whole by a strike call or called out (like last night) by a strike call when the ball was CLEARLY way outside.
If the strike zone boxes are accurate, it shows that the umpires are highly inaccurate especially with the outside corner.
I am not talking about them winning a lot more games, but fairness should be expected. A strike is a strike, is a strike!
Posted by: BMAC1206 | June 30, 2011 10:34 AM
It pains me to see how many times the Orioles have had the bases loaded, men on 2nd&3rd, or a man on 2nd with zero outs and failed to score a single run. It's happened 3 times in the past week and an uncountable and unthinkable amount this season.
Bases loaded, 0 outs. and 0 runs scored has become a habit for this team because NOBODY on this team has any plate discipline at all. They can't bunt, they can't hit behind a runner, nor can anyone think about the game situation and even try to hit accordingly.
Hardy leads off with a double in extra innings. Does anyone do anything to move the runner? Nope.
This team has too many selfish batters who refuse to bat as if they were part of a team. It is maddening to watch this team on offense. No wonder the pitchers are struggling because they all feel that they have to be perfect.
Posted by: Chris T | June 30, 2011 10:36 AM
I think Buck now understands why this is a Ravens town.....same ole same ole from the O's.
Posted by: LouieN'Canton | June 30, 2011 10:57 AM
I think this RISP stuff is a loser's lament, a cover-up for a basic lack of talent. Statistical analyses have shown that these things tend to even out over the course of the year. So talking about a failure of clutch hitting implies that the talent is there, but they just haven't quite applied it at the right moments, when the more likely case is that the Orioles line-up doesn't work counts or get on base enough. They hit for some power, but that's only half of the equation.
Posted by: Orsulakfan | June 30, 2011 11:04 AM
BMAC,
What you said about balls and strikes is an accurate statement. That's what happens to bad teams. Things pile up. Nobody is going to do you any favors when you're a bad team.
How many traveling fouls did Michael Jordan with, because he was Michael Jordan. Yea, exactly!
The point is: even though it's true, it is what it is. Doesn't take the fact that the O's are a terrible team, and at the end of the day, those bad calls make absolutely ZERO difference. The O's would find a way to lose anyway.
Posted by: Mesotheliangelos | June 30, 2011 11:11 AM
The following headlines are gleaned from the latest issue of USA Today Sports weekly; Cover Story--Band of Believers--Young Pirates Look to End Losing Streak at 18 Seasons -- inside story headlines, Pirates play for more than .500; Hurdle's confidence game making difference in clubhouse, standings -- Fans like new way of doing business, and finally -- Hand it to Hanrahan; Closer likened to Gossage. So whats my point? Wasn't this supposed to be us this year??? Wasn't Buck supposed to be doing this. Don't our players believe in SOMETHING??? Are we lacking in confidence??? The only "Goose" we can liken to any of our pitchers is a cooked one. I am sincerely hoping that once the all-star break is done the real Buck Showalter will emerge. I can't believe he wants this kind of blip on his previously good record. I hope he is giving numerous players, if you can call them that enough of the proverbial rope. Please tell me this is so....the start of it will be Pedro out of the cleanup spot, I hope more kick butt measure will be forthcoming. Please tell me it is so Dan.
Posted by: joe from jersey | June 30, 2011 11:18 AM
Dan,
Great analysis. One issue feeds on another. The Orioles starters don't go deep in part because they get little run support and each pitch they throw could be the game. They begin to squeeze each pitch as such, nibble and run up pitch counts, rather than pitch to contact.
Since the heady 6 and 1 start, the Orioles are playing .414 baseball, at 29 and 41. I see nothing yet that indicates that trend is going to change anytime soon. It may even get worse over the next 30 days.
The proximate cause of the Orioles futility with RISP is and has been the lack of an impact bat in his prime in the middle of the lineup. Andy Macphail has failed to produce one on his four year watch, nor did his predecessors. How would Adrian Gonzalez look batting 4th with his .356 average, 194 total bases, 16 HR and 71 RBI? Do you think he may have come up with a big hit or two with RISP to change the paradigm?
Maybe Angelos won't let Andy spend Gonzalez type money. Maybe Andy still thinks it can be done on the cheap with the Garrett Atkins's, Derrick Lee's and Vladimir Guerrero's. There is no imminent impact bat in the farm sytstem or on the major league roster. So where do you get one? Maybe, like the Orioles, you just don't. And you pay for it, year after year. Groundhog day.
Groundhog day it is Dan, and it will remain that way for the fans and the franchise until the mindset and the people in the front office change. That change can only be accomplished by the owner. If he really wants to win. I guess at this point that is a rhetorical question. Until then, perienniel losers we are. Sad to say. But true.
Posted by: Gil | June 30, 2011 11:35 AM
Make that Groundhog Year - heading for GroundHog Decade, Dan.
Having converted my season ticket money to travel+hotel+ticket money, I spent last evening watching the Phils play the BoSox in the sold out Philly stadium. There is really no reason to pay to watch bad baseball. Am I a Phils or BoSox fan -- absolutely not. But I like good baseball. There are a few good products out there.
And by the way - how is the Phils of all teams can develop yet ANOTHER good pitcher - Vance Worley - and we struggle to have 1.
Posted by: NotSoCaptiveFan | June 30, 2011 12:08 PM
Make that Groundhog Year - heading for GroundHog Decade, Dan.
Having converted my season ticket money to travel+hotel+ticket money, I spent last evening watching the Phils play the BoSox in the sold out Philly stadium. There is really no reason to pay to watch bad baseball. Am I a Phils or BoSox fan -- absolutely not. But I like good baseball. There are a few good products out there.
And by the way - how is the Phils of all teams can develop yet ANOTHER good pitcher - Vance Worley - and we struggle to have 1.
Posted by: NotSoCaptiveFan | June 30, 2011 12:10 PM
Yeah Gil,
The excuses go something like this:
1. A-Gone didn't want to come here. Neither did Teixeira. Neither does Prince Fielder.
2. We can't compete with the Yankees or the Redsox. We're a small market team
3. Look at Jason Woerth. Do you want to pay that kind of money for that kind of production?! - (lol ... even though the sample size is 1/3 of a season of a 7 season contract)
4. We're watching the kids grow before our eyes. _put_a_player_name_here is only 24 years old. The future is looking bright
5. It could be worse. We're lucky to have a baseball team
6. You can't buy a seat and a hot dog for $11 at Yankee stadium of Fenway Park
7. Nobody could turn this around in _an_arbitrary_number_here years.
8. Experts say, the O's will be big spenders next year. Have some patience.
9. This team is snake-bitten by bad luck and injuries
10. put your own excuse here!
Posted by: Mesotheliangelos | June 30, 2011 12:45 PM
I've been an avid supporter of the Orioles for over 30 years and have stood by these past 13 sub-500 seasons, bemoaning all those who have put the blame ownership. But now I think they might be right. The problem with the team seems to be that there is, indeed, no true commitment by ownership to win. Sure, PA will cut a check once in awhile, but that's not the same as being actively involved in the process of wanting to win. We know that for a team to be successful it needs a strong farm system which is built on top flight scouting, and especialy nowadays, international scouting. We've heard lip service that this is something the Orioles need to do--much as George Bush played lipservice to the need for gasoline alternatives, then kept up the "drill baby drill" philosphy--but they're not doing it. There needs to be a buy in of everyone, from the the owner, down to the assistant clubhouse manager at Bluefield (Oh, wait, we don't have Bluefield anymore) that this is going to be THE ORIOLE WAY. There used to be such a thing--a focus on fundamentals, on caring about the uniform, the team, the history and past and I think Buck knows this, hence that video he showed the players this past spring. But there needs to be alot more than a single night at the movies to fix this problem. THere was a time that, from low A to the majors, every player was hearing the same things, getting the same instruction--that type of consistently does wonders in building up players. Personally, the man for the job has got to be Cal Ripken, Jr. If any man could bring back the Oriole Way to this franchise, it would be Cal. But that requires either (1) a buy in by ownership, i.e. PA has to agree to it or (2) a change in ownership, byebye PA, hello Cal and a bunch of his well-heeled friends. Right now, the only way to achieve success in the SHORT-term on the major league ball club is pay near-a-billion in dollars for free agents as the players are NOT in the system, and we all know that's not going to happen, and further, I'd rather it didn't happen because that approach has been tried here before and the results have been, in the end, disastrous. We need to start infusing some ORIGINAL THINKING into the equation here. Forget the Dominican and Japan, let's start looking at other countries...What about Europe? Russia? Ireland? China? A billion plus, and none can play ball? We need to think outside the batter's box, excuse the pun. But again, any action of this sort requires the commitment of ownership and that means PA has to green light it and that doesn't seem to be happening. The first step to rebuildin this franchise is, PA must go.Go O's!
Posted by: maxmorf | June 30, 2011 12:48 PM
I've actually used the term "Groundhog Day" to refer to this "offense" for quite a while now. Not only do they not get hits with RISP, they don't even manage rbi outs (sac flies, or grounders when the infield is back.) Lots of undisciplined ABs in those situations (swinging early against struggling pitchers, swinging at pitches out of the strike zone or pitches they have no chance to drive in the air.)
It has long since gotten to the point where, when they get a runner on third with one or two outs, I sit here wondering how they will manage to not score, because they so rarely do.
Posted by: OriAl | June 30, 2011 1:03 PM
Meso,
In a recent colum, Pete opined that it is almost time to start planning for next year. I commented that he writes the same column about this time every year. He probably saves it as an attachment and just changes the year. Except for MASN, the local press, including SUN columnists are becoming increasingly critical of the organization. If you read the blogs, even long time die hard fans are coming to the conclusion that this franchise is dead in the water, from ownership, the front office, scouting, and the farm system on down.
There is nothing going on at the present time to alter the paradigm. We have a couple of prospects in the low minors and some young pitching talent with potential. We have had young pitching talent with potential for 12 years. I posted the names once, so I won't do it again, but it is an incredible collection of overrated and oft injured kids who failed to meet the lowest expectations. We have several in the current group who appear to be headed that way.
Long time fans still talk about the Oriole way. Those days are long gone. The Oriole way now is to lose, with no end in sight.
As my old friend jim66 would write{and I paraphrase} it's time to nuke the site from orbit and start over. I am OK with that. At least it's a real plan, not a slogan like "Grow the arms and buy the bats."
Posted by: Gil | June 30, 2011 1:24 PM
Gil,
You and I have been right since day one about Andy MacPhail. Something that I am not proud of. I wish I were terribly wrong. As fans we get bogged down with the baseball aspect of this franchise, but it has nothing to do with that.
What's going on with this franchise is a systematic failure to live up to any kind of winning standard, almost deliberate. I used to suspect it, however now I'm a firm believer that Peter Angelos doesn't have one ounce in his being that cares about the O's or baseball as a sport.
The O's are simply a business venture that is seen as dollars and cents. The O's are something he is not emotionally attached to, and couldn't care less what the World says about him. I will go as far as saying that he enjoys inflicting grief on generations of O's fans. The man is a disgrace to the city of Baltimore, regardless of the tax deductible contributions he makes to save face. The biggest service he could ever do to Baltimore is to sell the team.
Posted by: Mesotheliangelos | June 30, 2011 3:17 PM
"You don’t need to know anything more than those two nuggets. Except maybe the year. ..."
Well crafted. Round up the usual suspects & book 'em, Danno.
Howevah, i heard Keith Law tell Jason Smith that RBI'sssssssss don't matter. LOL
Posted by: dave | June 30, 2011 3:18 PM
As I sit here and try and wonder where I heard this term “Ground Hog Day” before I will share some insights that I came up with as I walked to and from the post office today, Does MASN Marketing, the Good People at the Oriole Insider, Peter S, and Roch K. ever communicate with each other to make sure everyone is on the same page? I ask this because when I was watching the O’s game last night MASN debuted a Vlad Guerrero commercial. It highlighted his .471 average against the Red Sox for 2011 and what a heckuva job he did for the O’s. Now unfortunately, all the writers I read yesterday wrote articles about how it’s gone wrong for Vlad, Vlad must go, with whom should we replace Vlad, one poster felt that Vlad should leave town, which I found hilarious. Now common sense would tell me that maybe there should be a meeting of the minds with all involved. Everyone should detail what they have in mind on what they are going to do, because to me it looked ridiculous that they media in Baltimore more or less want Vlad gone and MASN marketing was touting in the commercial that Vlad is doing a good job because someone is obviously wrong or at least uninformed! Also, I read the three names in this article Vlad, Derrek and Luke have a poor RISP average. Well Nick M’s isn’t so hot either around .243, so I ask why wasn’t his name mentioned. Look the bottom line is the Orioles are losing because it’s a full team effort. The Orioles are not playing well as team! Also, to let a struggling team like the Cardinals come into Baltimore and get healthy again is inexcusable! Also, I can’t believe there were so many Cardinal fans at the game. They even had seats directly behind home plate! How’s that possible?
Posted by: The Squirrel | June 30, 2011 3:26 PM