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May 14, 2011

Guthrie's confounding lack of run support

I wrote about it in the game story from Friday night, but it is worth mentioning again.

It really is one of those bizarre things, a weird baseball statistical anomaly.

The Orioles’ offense simply won’t score with Jeremy Guthrie on the mound.

That was in evidence again Friday night, when 24-year-old rookie Jeremy Hellickson threw a complete-game shutout, the first of his brief big-league career.

Guthrie also threw a complete-game, this one of the eight-inning variety. And this is all you need to know about his continual lack of run support: Guthrie has three career complete games and two are losses. In fact, he has four losses when he has pitched eight innings.

Guthrie has received the worst run support in the AL this season at a pathetic 1.73 per game.

Consider this: In his 20 losses since the start of 2010, the Orioles have scored 24 runs while he was in the game. That’s 1.2 runs per game.

In his last seven starts in 2011, the Orioles have not scored while he was on the mound in five of those games.

Guthrie says it doesn’t affect his focus.

“It’s easy to focus. I am a competitor and I want to go out there and pitch as well I can and so it doesn’t factor in,” Guthrie said Friday night. “I just go out there and try to do the best I can and today was much better. We were in the game throughout and always within striking distance.”

But there’s no question it has to be frustrating for him. He is a competitor. No denying that. And he’s now 1-6 in eight starts, which is awful, with a 3.98 ERA, which is pretty respectable in the AL East. Guthrie is tied for the league lead in losses and hasn’t won since Opening Day.

“You can only control what you can control,” said center fielder Adam Jones. “If this was the NL, he’d be able to hit, but you can’t. I’ve said to him many times, just keep doing what you are doing, we are going to get you some sooner or later.”

Jones is right. Sooner or later that trend has to be reversed.

But you have to wonder if this will take its toll on Guthrie. That he’ll try to be too fine -- thinking he has no margin for error – and get burned.

It’s probably the most misleading, unfair stat in baseball, a pitcher’s won-loss record. Yet it’s always going to be there on the back of his baseball card and under his name on web sites. And right now, Guthrie has a career ERA around 4 and has a career record of 39-54.



Posted by Dan Connolly at 6:00 AM | | Comments (25)
        

Comments

Jeff it's truly amazing what a 3 game sweep can do for the fans of this town.After they sweep a lowly seattle team everyone was feeling great again about this team. I heard talk shows and read blogs where everybody said that back in january if somebody would have told you the orioles would be 17 and 19 you would have been estatic. Last night once again reminded me just how bad this offense really is. In the last 36 innings against TB the orioles were never in the lead, close to the lead or ever in danger of taking the lead.

Jeff , i know you have taken the time recently to point out just how confused and lost nick m has been. But do you realize that the orioles extended brian roberts and nick m to contract extensions worth 100,000,00 and haven't come close to getting what was expected out of the 2 veteran cornerstones of this franchise. We are nearing the 1/4 mark of the season and almost 150 ab's for both of them and this is no longer considered a slump in my eyes's it's has to start being considered diminshed skills on both of there parts.We can continue all we want to make excuses for both of them but there mind set and body language is starting to say that something is drastically wrong.

We can continue to talk about the rest of the off season pickups but then we will just be repeating ourselves. Lee is now ties with mark reynolds in strikeouts and these 3 guys that were suppose to enhance this lineup have failed miserably. Reynold has to be one of the worse hitters that i have seen in a very long time. Jeff i know this is a continue rant on my part but this anemic offense isn't going away anytime soon. Buck can continue to talk about track records all he wants but the orioles are going to have to make some very difficult decisions pretty quickly.

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Dan's Reply: The problem is there aren't many options, at least within the organization, for immediate help. Showalter is stuck waiting for these guys to turn it around, because what's the alternative?

At some point this team needs to face the reality that Guthrie could bring a nice haul of prospects in a trade...perhaps some major league ready position players who could, you know, put some pressure on or replace the time wasters we refer to as a lineup (that includes Roberts and Markakis).

If i were Guthrie i would demand to bat for myself. It would be interesting to see what the other players averages are when guthrie pitches. I wish those stats were available.
Guthrie is a great athelete. His average of lets say 225 would probably be the highest in games he has pitched

This anamoly is no longer linked solely to Guthrie, as the O's have, what, 4 runs in nearly 30 innings?? Atrocious.

Patchwork offense seemed like such a good idea in February, but now it looks like an unhealthy, uninspired group of veterans and underachieving young guys. And the bullpen, don't even get me started on those guys! lol

This is worse than I thought. I'm already looking forward to 2012. And what's the point?

Another woeful offensive performance. Buck says they have to figure it out. N o kidding. You have to hit the ball where it's pitched and as a hitter you cannot continually hit the pitcher's pitch. Where is the farm system production of young hitters through this decade of futility?

blancione:
I agree with you. The Orioles sweep the Mariners, one of the worst teams in baseball, and fans act like that is a sign that the Orioles are a good team. They are not. They have a weak roster and a culture of losing. I also agree about the Roberts and Markakis contracts. Roberts is signed through 2013. His contract is guaranteed to be a disaster, as his body is already falling apart, likely in part because of his past steroid abuse, which of course Roberts repeatedly lied about. Roberts is 34 years old this season, which is old for a middle infielder. Markakis is signed through 2014, and his contract could also turn out to be a disaster if he continues to decline. Markakis' offense and defense have both been declining since his 2008 season. I also find it odd how these 2 players seem to be nearly immune from criticism from Orioles fans, especially Roberts, who is a confirmed steroid abuser, cheater, and liar. The Orioles will have their 14th consecutive losing season this year, no matter how delusional Orioles fans may be about the team's chances for success. The Orioles also have very little chance for success (having a winning season) in the near future. The only everyday player who is signed long term and can reasonably be expected to stay healthy and be a very solid contributor in the future is Markakis. Jones has never come close to living up to expectations and Wieters is a pathetic shell of the hitter he was supposed to be, and he is showing no signs of improvement. Pie sucks and will never amount to anything, Scott is getting old and can't stay healthy, Markakis has been declining for 3 seasons when he should have been improving, Lee is old and he sucks, Guerrero is old and he sucks, Reynolds sucks, Hardy can't stay healthy and hasn't been good since 2008, Roberts is getting old, sucks this season, and his body is a disaster. It is a very weak roster.

Well, we may be growing some arms, but we sure as h*ll aren't buying any bats and the "bats" we have are as impotent as the Dutch army at Srebrenica. Maybe we should trade Guts mid season for someone who can hit better than Izzy. Guts might land on a team who can hit, and we might not have to bat Izzy in the four spot as by then Izzy might be our best hitter.

Obviously Buck is correct, baseball is a game of stats and a long season, and some of our newest "bats" will eventually hit for their average, but I strongly suspect it will be their worst most recent averages, not when they were actually "bats".

Can't score for Guthrie? How about, they can't hit quality pitchers?

The alternative is Bell at third base, Platoon Scoot and Lee at first and Reimold in left with Adams at second if Roberts doesnt start hitting soon. Send down or release Reynolds. I know you got to keep playing Nick and if dosnt improve trade him for prospects.
Dan i dont get to see many games as I live in Miami but when i saw how terrible Reynolds and Lee looked last night and this has been going on all season its time for a drastic change

Dan, J Guthrie's a class pitcher and class act... tho the misguidedly stingy front office seems stuck on the W/L record provided him by its wimpy lineup of higher priced faders when it negotiates his $$. JG would have 15 wins a year easily on a consistently higher scoring team. So trade him to one to give him that opportunity, bundling in a few of our true underachievers, to fetch a few more arms. In the meantime, Please Buck--get rid of those ridiculous, defeatist O's black hats--standing for... Zero's? Oklahoma's, minus one strikeout? Okracoke's, vanishing beaches? or just OhNo's, not again? and display a decent B (or maybe MD?) to properly identify the team's place of residence... Birdland, Baltimore!

Jeff - the problem is the offense is not scoring period. It's not just for Guthrie. On the bright side, the birds have a very nice young staff right now that makes the future look pretty bright. That staff will keep them in every game but with this offense, they are going to have trouble winning this season. Alex is absolutely right that they need to try and get some young positions players in a deal for Guthrie that can help them win in the future.. Guthrie should have a lot of value to a playoff ready team and unfortunately that is not the o's right now.

By the way, you can't say the fans are overreacting to a sweep of the mariners because they are "lowly" and then overlook the fact that the rays are playing the best baseball in the AL right now.

Is it possible to have 9 different guys bat the next time Hellickson pitches. After 14 shutout innings. The ones they have now can't hit him.

It is too bad our pitchers don't get to face the pathetic lineup we have.

the O's can not score runs period!! How can they all be having a "off" period?? Hitting coach or just very average players?

Really? you guys are talking about replacing Markakis and Roberts because they've started out a little cool? When they both finish with Avg. over .290 don't talk...

Guthrie's professionalism and class are admirable. He's pitching tremendously for a team that hits miserably.They're good guys without much talent in the batters box and without much fight. What's truly scary is that the Angelos/McPhail regime is so wretched that there's precious little talent in the minor league pipeline.

Blancione,

While I understand your arguments generally about Markakis and Roberts, I have to point out that you're just plain wrong about Roberts in terms of this season.

Roberts' average and production the last 10-12 games has been rough - the 1/35 or whatever was killer. But that's not the same as Markakis' season-long struggles. Roberts started the season on a tear and was the team leader in RBI for the first month of the season.

Don't overlook that to make your point

Reynolds should be benched ---- how long do you wait for a guy who can't hit ... he is losing games for the O's ... good glove is not enough ... it was not enough at shortstop ... McPhail mystifies me the people he picks up -- he has had ONE good trade -- One. Mark Reynolds is the worst hitter (as a regular) I have seen ever in the major leagues -- don't care how many HR's he manged to hit .. terrible .... put Andino at third.

Dan,

The problem is that Guthrie most often matches up with the opposing #1 starter. So against the opposing #1 right handed starter, Pie should be playing with Scott at 1B or DH(if Scott's injury effects his play at 1B). Against the #1 opposing left handed starter, Fox and/or Andino should be playing. The team as a whole isn't swinging the bats real well.

Unfortunately, Guthrie pitches for a team that has been lousy offensively for most of the 13 seasons, plus this one. It is strange how they've been even worse with him on the mound than with other starters, but the Orioles not scoring runs is not a rare occurrence, unfortunately, From Crowley's Crumbs to Presley's Peons.

I agree with the previous poster. Trade the poor guy to a team like Kansas City for a couple of good hitting prospects (1B and 3B, perhaps), and a good pitching prospect, if such a deal can be worked out. Guthrie is a good enough pitcher to warrant good return. And may his next team score for him.

these oriole players look like a bunch of bodies just going through the motions of playing ball. the just look like they do not care just as long as pa gives them a pay check. how long has it been since brian roberts hit a home run. i watched most of last nights game and the orioles looked like a bunch of robots.

Jeremy Guthrie is far away my favorite Orioles pitcher for the past thirty years, not just because of his arm but because of his preparation, professionalism, and exemplary character. But it's reached a point where it's just killing me watching him absorb undeserved loss after undeserved loss these past five years. My fondest wish for this good man at this point is to see him traded to a team that can actually provide him with enough runs to win a few games and have his excellence recognized by the baseball world. The Orioles clearly press too much when he pitches to do him any good.

Dan,

Great stat work. I knew run support for Guthrie was weak, but YIKES!

I have also been saying that Buck has no choice but to "dance with the guys who brung'em" so to speak.

Which brings me to three questions for you.

If the last place Orioles continue to fade and are out of it for all intents and purposed by late July{as usual} who falls on the sword?

Does Andy push Angelos to fire Buck to cover himself because he thinks that he acquired the pieces for Buck to be able to compete?

Does Angelos fire Andy because after 4 years the farm system is still weak and Andy hasn't been able to bring in enough talent to compete in the AL east?

Or does Andy retire at the end of the season, leaving the mess he inherited, and propagated, to someone else?

Buck says that need to figure out their hitting problems soon. Number one they need better plate discipline and two they need to use the whole
field and take outside pitches to the opposite field.

go back to last year in the begining Millwood did alright then he got what Guthrie is getting no run support next thing you know Millwood was allowing 6 runs a game and the O's had no chance to compete

Guthrie's gopher balls have demoralized me for years & no doubt do the same to his teammates. He ain't no hero. Trade him

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About the bloggers
A Baltimore native, Dan Connolly has been covering sports for 14 years, and baseball and the Orioles for 10 seasons, including the past six with The Sun. His first year covering baseball on a daily basis was Cal Ripken Jr.'s final season as a player. It's believed that is just a coincidence.

Steve Gould is an assistant sports editor for The Sun, overseeing Orioles coverage. The Columbia native joined The Sun as a sports copy editor in 2006 after graduating from the University of Maryland.

Peter Schmuck has been covering baseball for a lot longer than Steve Gould has been on this earth. He is now a general sports columnist, but has been a beat writer covering three major league teams (the Dodgers, Angels and Orioles) and also spent a decade as the Sun's national baseball writer. If you want more of his insight on the Orioles and other sports issues, check out his personal blog -- The Schmuck Stops Here.


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