Fingers crossed . . .

Lee has hit #3 most of his career; maybe that lets the team hit Markakis in the 2 hole, and Jones 5th?

When was the last time that a player was signed and teammates publicly said something like "Why did they sign that guy? He's horrible!" Of course it's a lot of praise for the signing now and I hope they are right. I think D Lee is better than any options the O's had.

Jeff;
Happy New Year. Just wondering...one year signing for first base...will someone be groomed for a new position? Bell, Riemold,...more seasoning for Snyder???

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Jeff Z's reply: Thanks Joe. I don't see any position changes immediately. I think Snyder will start the season as Triple-A Norfolk's first baseman and Bell will be the Tides' third baseman. Reimold will remain in the outfield. I wouldn't rule out down the road Bell perhaps moving across the diamond, but it's a little early for that now.

There were many disappointments last year for the Os but one of the strongest had to be the extremely poor play of the Norfolk Tides. For instance, when Atkins failed the Os were hoping to bringing up someone from Norfolk to take his place but none of the three "prospects" were playing well enough. When Reimold failed, there were no young players at Norfolk to take his place. When Tejada was traded the Os received a very subpar outing from Bell. Early in the year there was no one at Norfolk to take Roberts place.

Here's hoping some players emerge this year to push guys like Pie and Jones, help out if Roberts goes down again and provide a viable option at first base for 2012.

Yeah , this is a great time to be a fan - everybody crunching lineups now, i'm sure.

I still really like a more patient Pie in the 2 hole, though i like Markakis there as well. Maybe Markakis hits 2nd against lefties and third against righties.

Jeff,

Any news concerning the O's signing a veteran pitcher for the 4/5 spot in the rotation?

I haven't heard Jeremy Bonderman's name being mentioned. Could he be a possible 1 year innings eater that could allow the young guns in the minors to get 1 year more of experience?

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Jeff Z's reply: No, not yet Max. I wouldn't hold it from you if I had that information. Not a big fan of Bonderman in the A.L. East, but at this point, the options aren't exactly overflowing.

As long as we don't expect too much from this NL All-Star (remember Glenn Davis,) then I think DLee will prove to be an excellent addition to the Birds' lineup.

No pressure, his performance will all be gravy.

Everyone would like a "more patient Pie", warrior. But he's not a patient hitter, as evidenced by his .305 OBP and just 58 walks in almost 900 MLB plate appearances. His minor league numbers don't scream "patience" either.

Pie shouldn't hit any higher than 7th. End of story.

I think this is the most likely lineup

1. Roberts, S
2. Markakis, L
3. Lee, R
4. Scott, L
5. Reynolds, R
6. Wieters, S
7. Jones, R
8. Pie, L
9. Hardy, R

Although, I'd love to Sandwich Reynolds in between Markakis and Lee instead of between Scott and Wieters. The only problem is that, past Roberts, Markakis and Lee, we don't have any true top of the lineup hitters.

Good addition. The right handed power bat will be BIG in this lineup. Time to get started!!!!!!

It won't take long for people to get fed up with Lee's double plays and reynold's whiffs. The main thing on this offense is a healthy BRob,without him all these moves won't make much difference.

Last year during the hot stove season, I think the Orioles front office earned a grade of D.

Assuming the deal with Lee goes through, they are now around a B- for this offseason. Although he didn't land any superstars, Andy did fill the two most glaring needs. The biggest remaining need is additional bullpen help; a veteran starter would be nice too, although that will be difficult to pull off at this stage.

I don't think we'll be buying playoff tickets this year, but at least the FO has made the moves necessary to give the O's a fighting chance to be competitive. With a good year from Guthrie and at least three of the young starters, a .500+ season is within reach. With 1989-like luck, we could even be in the hunt for the wild card down the stretch.

What would be nice to see is that Thome comes in as DH and Scott in LF, leve Reimold in AAA and put Pie on the bench, but a lineup together that poses a real threat and force opposing pitchers to make mistakes, Scott would be a minimal liability and provide a powerful lineup for the club.

Happy New Yr Jeff, and thanks for your time and effort w this blog, it's the 1st place I go to stay in the loop.
Regardless of what the neysayers wanna say, no one can argue agaist the fact that for the first time in a REALLY LONG TIME, The O's will be fielding 9 bonafide professionals at all the starting positions.
There wil be alot of things to watch this year w the O's and isn't that just victory in itself!? If Reynolds solidfies 3rd base and Bell lights up the minors, great, options develop. You could package Bell w the necessary players to get Fielder. Judging by how his body is developing, Bell might better served defensively at 1st so they could start giving him time there down on the farm. Who knows, Lee could return to MVP like status in the friendly confines of OPACY and both parties decide to continue w him at 1st beyone 2011. If he goes off for something like his best years, .300+ BA, 30 Dingers and a OPS of .950, he may just wanna stay as the anchor of young and exciting team.
Funny enough, sometimes the deals you don't make are your best; Cuz they lead to others that just might be a better fit. I think Derreck Lee's character, and production will be greatly appreciated in that locker room. I here Reynolds is a high character guy too, and Hardy is quite firey. Come on Balmur, the malaize is melting. You have got to really start shedding the "Woe is We" mantra and start getting ready to enjoy the new, upstart, "Get Some Serious Payback" Mojo that Buck is going to foster from day one in Sarasota.
Throw in new digs down there to visit, new concessions back in BMore and this WestCoast WingNut is ready to plump down for some ticket packages. Moreover, after getting all the major holes filled, there's still plenty of time to garner one or two more arms for the bullpen and maybe even another bat for the bench. Like Buck, I like Thames. As for another Vet starter, only if it s a low-risk type deal like Chris Capauno. Britton should not be rushed.

What amazes me about these post is how critical many are that AM does not sign top tier FA - simple guys - they will not sign here until we are a proven winner, but with BR and NYY in our division they are looking elsewhere for a chance to go to the WS or at least the play offs - so I am cheering for our young pitchers to be ready this year and the added bats make us a little better on the O - "build it and they will come" - we are on the right track - we have the right manager, and we have the talent - don't be so friggin negative - I was in Memorial Stadium the April day the Browns became the Orioles, so I have lived through some tough Oriole times.

On a personal side note - I saw Mick and Ted and our own Al Kaline, and so many other in the 50's - hated them all as a youngster - wish I knew them what I know now. A 152 game schedule - Gus Triandos was our leading home run hitter with 10 - how would you react to that today?

Everyone is giving their input as to the O's lineup for this year. What would be best for the team and the player himself, is to put A Jones in the 2-hole where he flourished when given the opportunity. He's a hitter who's biggest problem is pulling off the ball looking for big power when he thinks it's expected of him. Keeping him focused on being a gap-to-gap hitter would raise OBP, help him hit behind BRob and get on base more often where he should be a 20 steal guy. This would then allow Buck the opportunity to mix and match righty-lefty throughout the lineup. Lastly, this keeps the 4 fastest runners together as they should be as well starting with Pie. Here you go:
BRob
Jones
Markakis
Lee
Scott
Reynolds
Weiters
Hardy
Pie
Jeff, what do you think?

Hey Steve,
Just read your post. I'm in total agreement of us getting Thome and putting Scott in LF. Scott's not a liability there as he is at 1B and allows us greater depth off the bench. Thome just said though that he's not going to settle for his salary of last year at $1.5 mill. After seeing Pena and Lee lock up at $8-10 mill., I could see him taking $5 mill. from us, but I see him ending up in TB for some reason. Hope I'm wrong. Now that line up would be darn near intimidating to the best of pitching staffs.

Jeff, are you hearing any more on either Vlad or Thome? Vlad doesn't seem to have ever been in the picture, but we can hope, can't we? Still rather have Thome though anyway.

Also, what two relievers are ou hearing the most? Possibly Balfour/Mahay?

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Jeff Z's reply: Nope, have heard nothing recent on Vlad or Thome. I would say it's probably unlikely because the O's really want to give Pie and Reimold an opportunity, but I haven't heard that for sure. O's are waiting on Gregg obviously. If he decides not to sign with the club and I don't expect him to at this point considering he's sat on their offer for three weeks, then I think they'll turn to Rauch and Balfour. My guess would be Rauch first cause he wouldn't command a draft pick.

2-3-4-5-6 should be Hardy, Markakis, Reynolds, Lee, Scott.

I see no need for another one of those "veteran" pitchers who usually make things worse but, if we must, I'd definitely vote for Chris Capuano over any of the others who are available, all of whom are bums. Unlike the others, a quality season out of Capuano is not impossible.

As far as line ups go I think it makes the whole line up more dangerous to have Adam Jones in the 2 hole. One of the great things that a heathly Brian Roberts does is make it so the person hitting behind him see's alot of fast balls due to his treat to take second. The idea of Adam seeing allot of fast balls should make us all very happy! And that is were he was when he started so hot a couple years ago before he got hurt. It's what made him an All Star If that is the case and Nick hits 3rd and Lee hit's behind him makes it very difficult to pitch around anybody. Here's my vote on a line up. Of course buck has earned some trust! What ya think Jeff?

1. Roberts
2. Jones
3. Markakis
4. Lee
5. Scott
6. Wieters,
7. Hardy
8. Reynolds (you want people on for when he does make contact!)
9. Pie

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Jeff Z's reply: Yeah, Reynolds is not going to be hitting 8th. Slide him up ahead of Wieters if anything. For me, it's all about who is going to hit second. I just haven't seen enough of Hardy to know if he'd be good in that spot.

Batting Mark Reynolds 8 th LOL
Have you spoken to "Jimmy" and Buck about this? I don't think their recommendation would be to bat him 8th, but that's just a guess on my part.
As for Adam Jones, as I have said before AJ is the best athlete on the team, but he is not a #2 hitter. Markakis is best suited for that

Also, I agree with Not Brooks we don't have we don't have any true top of the lineup hitters. Unless we get Billy Butler.

Here's another interesting article about Butler. http://royalsblog.kansascity.com/?q=node/696

Jeff Z, I am curious since the Royals were looking for 2nd baseman would they consider this trade Pie and LJ Hoes for Butler? I know you have stated the chances are slim to obtain Butler and yes I am accepting that fact more and more everday. Still, I love the idea of Butler batting third for us and he could learn more about 1st base defense from D Lee. Lastly, Jeff one other thing, I heard some faint rumors that Mark Buehrle was on the block a month or so ago. My question is would the O's be interested in him if that's true and second do we have anything that would be interesting to the White Sox?
Having Buehrle and Capuano could be helpful to the O's

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Jeff Z's reply: I know the Royals have liked Pie in the past, but they got a young center fielder (Cain) in the Greinke deal so I'm not sure why they'd still be interested. And that package would be nowhere near enough to get Butler. And I'll say it again Squirrel as it's clear you have an obsession with Billy Butler, there has been absolutely zero indication that he is available in a trade. It's great to play fantasy baseball and assemble your dream team, but the other team actually has to be interested in trading the guy you covet. I also haven't heard Buehrle is available so discussing what it would take to get him is pointless. The White Sox are trying to win now. I have no idea why they'd trade Buehrle.

He's not Garrett Atkins!

I agree that Wieters and Reynolds could be switched, and maybe should be. Just seems like if Lee and Scott do their jobs then the 6th hole is kind of were the line up usually will kind of start over. Reynolds for his woful.198 ave. hit .276 with runners in scoring potition, so I say put him in a spot were more runner might be on and add something to the bottom of the order. He hit sixth with the Dimond backs last year allot and with the addition of Lee you can argue that our new line up will be much better then theirs. Just seems to be me we want to but him in a spot were more runners have more of a chance to be on. Not in the three or four hole cause I think we all feel better with Nick and Lee there so where? I think that will be the hardest decision for Buck to make, where to bat Reynolds. Remember he stuck out 41% of the time. Like Buck I appriciate his contact to damage ratio but almost half the time he is not even going to put the ball n play!!! Also according to ESPN he hit fly balls 38.6% of the time. For all you math majors out there that means he is going to strike out or pop/fly out 79.6% of the time, or 8 out of every 10 at bats he is going to do nothing! Believe me I am very excited we got Reynolds cause 2 out of every 10 at bats he is must ikley going to hit a double or a homer and we just don't have anyone like that in our line up but we knew what he was when we got him so I say put him in a spot were he can just do what he does. Also in case you were wondering about on base percentage Reynolds has a .320, and Weiters had a .319, and he did it with over a hundred less strike outs and a 50 piont higher batting average. And that is not even takeing into account the fact the I think we all know Weiters has come no where close to his celling. Fact Weiters putting the ball in play has the potentail to move runners along and increase his chnaces of getting on base himself for when someone like Reynolds comes up, Reynolds not putting the ball in play at all 41% of the time potientially won't do anything for himself or move anyone anywhere! Except 2 times in 10 when whoever is on has a good chance to touch them all!

Just remember although 32 homers and 80 RBI's is really good to have, when it happens a little less then 20% of the time it is not as much as some of us might think it is. There is a reason the Diamondbacks traded a 27 year old average to above average defender with 30+ homerun power for a couple of relivers. After awhile all of the K's can get pretty old!!!

Barring any more roster shuffling, the line-up presented by not brooks makes the most sense to me. Reynolds might bat 7th or 8th (AL only) in a strong line-up as a "second clean-up hitter" but such is not the case with this line-up. One has to hope he bats with runners on and less than two outs. not brooks's proposed line-up gives that the best chance to happen most often.

To those giving McPhail high marks and chirping like 82 wins is a given, let's remember the age and physical liabilities of some of these players. While you are doing that, remember who the Orioles have as reserves.

As for the Gus Triandos days, he led the Orioles with 12 HRs in 1955. That was the tenth of 11 straight losing seasons as well as the tenth of 14 straight non-winning seasons for the Browns/Orioles. Memorial Stadium was 440-plus feet to center and to both power alleys back then, and the wall was at least 11 feet high until it gave way to a high and thick hedge straight-away from home plate.

Never saw Ted Williams play. He retired in 1960; my first game in person was 1961. Supposedly, he always wanted to hit the old score board (but didn't). I saw him "fish" at the Swimming HOF pool opening in Ft. Lauderdale. Long story but you have to watch some 8mm home movies with me to hear it. BYOB, too. My stories are long and beer by the word gets expensive.

Saw Mantle and Kaline play. Both could hit line drives as well as HRs. Very different era. Back then, stars were complete players. That's not a slap at the modern players, more at the modern era. Heck, almost all of the modern players hate the DH rule, and the DH rule is older than most of the modern players.

Where were we ... ? Oh, yes, players do applaud most acquisitions out of habit. Does anyone really think this is the case here with Lee?

The sad part is the Oriole lack of conviction. If Lee is the right player, he should have been signed for more money and more years. I know, I know. He only wanted one year in order to prove himself, so he could sign one more big payday somewhere else going into 2012.

But what if he was offered that big payday here? It could have been creatively offered to really give Lee the chance of a big payday without having to bargain for it while the Orioles could have had some security and possibly an attractive trading chip. Yes, the risk would have been greater but at some point one needs to invest in the future.

As it is, the Orioles have a one-year rental while giving everyone else a chance to look over the merchandise for future years. This is not a move for the future. And maybe that is why Lee didn't want to come here back in his prime, and views Baltimore now as being the Land of a Pleasant Stepping Stone. The Orioles are committed to being non-commital.

Happy New Year to you, Jeff, and the rest of the posters here.

Some lineup strategy/reasoning:

1) Hardy should bat 9th so he and Roberts are back to back for speed.

2) Markakis should bat 2nd because, like Roberts, he is a doubles machine, and gets on base.

3) Reynolds needs to bat very early in lineup while there are potential basestealers on base. He would get less off speed pitches like curves in this situation - Reynolds CANNOT handle the out of strike zone curve. But he eats up fastballs.

4) Bat Lee 5th after Scott.

Putting Scotty in left and getting Thome as DH is an interesting move. Jones covers a ton of ground in center, and Markakis can cover more ground in right-center than he was asked to do last year.
So you shade Jonesy to left and have him take anything close to left-center. So I don't think Scotty's limited range in left hurts you very much.

Pie IMHO is not a major league starter at this point, and with him in left the outfield lacks adequate power. Reimy belongs at Norfolk until he earns his way back to the big club. After last season he has a lot to prove.

I'm concerned about the national league guys they've gotten for the corners, but considering there weren't a lot of options it's probably the best AM could do.

Also concerned about the bullpen. People overrate JJ based on his form of a few years ago, Koji's durability is always a question, and it's hard to know what to expect from Berken this season.

Aaronities,

You contradict yourself. When you say that "8 out of every 10 at bats he is going to do nothing", you do not take his walks into account. In fact, 6.8 out of 10 at bats he is going to make an out, and yes, a great many of them will be strike outs or fly balls. At least they won't be double plays, and remember, he has shown he he is capable of hitting for a higher average than the .198 he hit last year. I think .240 to .260 is not unreasonable to expect.

ml

Now all we need is for nick to stop being a punch and judy hitter and for matt weiters to begin to be the ball player that everybody thought he would be.

The Dbacks traded 32/85 from a guy having an injury riddled year for melvin mora, and were shopping Upton, so i figure their GM is likely to do anything. I'd be surprised if Stephen Drew's name didn't come up in those discussions.
But you cannot do enough to wreck your offense in the NL West, because just when you thought you couldn't score any runs, someone else plays their very own Look Ma No Offense card(SD trades their only real run producer- AGon- (from an offense so pathetic they traded for Tejada) for prospects when last year he could have gotten an actual haul of young talent, but that's another story) and levels the playing field.

At the end of the day i guess they were pretty desperate to rebuild their bullpen
and play One Dimensional Works for Me.

the signing of derrek lee is another sign of the orioles short sightedness and unwillingness to spend money for better players. yes a lot won't cme to baltimore especially when they are insulted with the types of contract offers the orioles make to them.

2B Roberts B
LF Pie L
RF Markakis L
3B Reynolds R
1B Lee R
DH Scott L
CF Jones R
C Weiters B
SS Hardy R

1. You bat Pie second because with Roberts' higher rate of getting on base, you're gonna want to advance him by sacrifice. This is something that Pie does flawlessly and Markakis should not be asked to do.
If you choose to let Pie hit away, then he's less likely to be doubled up and then you still have Markakis coming up.

2. Reynolds is the big bopper, period.
He should bat 4th because he's the most likely to send one into the stands.

With Lee batting fifth to "protect" him, Reynolds should get some good pitches.

3. Let's remember though.... Lee has something to prove after a fall-off 2010.
That's why he should not be automatically inserted into the 3-spot.
The best pure hitter on the team is still Markakis, not Lee.

4.Scott batting sixth after Lee is a no-brainer. Pitchers pitched around Scott in 2010.... and he STILL had 25 big ones.
He'll get Lee better pitches.

5. Jones batting seventh takes the pressure off him and allows him to relax and just concentrate on doing whatever the situation calls for. I think he'd excell at this spot.

6. Weiters will get better at everything he does in 2011. Just let him grow like Jones with no pressure.

7. Hardy is a versatile hitter and fits well in the 9-hole. He can run, bunt, OR bop it into the stands.

I like this lineup.

Aaronities, reynolds has a ton of potential that youre ignoring and your only focusing on his worst year of the three hes played. He was hurt (nagging injuries) the majority of last year which plauged him at the plate.

In 2009 he hit 44 homers (first among 3rd basemen by 11hr) with a .260 avg and had a .349 obp (not horrible by any means)..he also only grounded into 8 double plays (evan longoria grounded into 27 that year). This kid has .270 38hr 100+rbis written all over him in 2011.

A healthy reynolds is a top five hitting 3b in the league and should be batting no lower than 5th on this team. Hes going to surprise a lot of Os fans this year.

Happy new year Jeff and thanks for this blog. Your posts are informative and you actually respond to us peons.
I have appreciated you keeping us up to date.
I am more optimistic about the O's this year than I have been in a very long time. This is finally going to be the year they break the .500 barrier and the Yanks, Sox and Rays are no longer going to be able to look at the B'more series on their schedules as vacations.
Many of us are hoping Reimold is going to recover his first year mojo. Have you heard anything about what he's been doing in the off-season to improve?

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Jeff Z's reply: I spoke to Nolan during the winter meetings when it appeared he was about to be traded. He was working out with Brady Anderson, obviously getting into real good shape but also working on his hitting. Brady has given very positive reviews to the organization.

Aaronities,

You contradict yourself. When you say that "8 out of every 10 at bats he is going to do nothing", you do not take his walks into account. In fact, 6.8 out of 10 at bats he is going to make an out, and yes, a great many of them will be strike outs or fly balls. At least they won't be double plays, and remember, he has shown he he is capable of hitting for a higher average than the .198 he hit last year. I think .240 to .260 is not unreasonable to expect.

ml

Hmmm ... seems our bullpen needs just got a bit more desperate. Looks like Alfredo Simon has taken himself out of contention. Yikes.

I only hope he saves a lot of Reynolds bad throws.

Jeff,
Have you heard anything about the Padres trying to resign Chris Young? And is there any word on the status of his shoulder?

He didn't pitch much last year, but he did come back and make some starts in Sept and pitched well. And he's pitched for Conner and Buck before at Texas, so they have some familarity with the guy. Could be a possibility if the price is right?

The O's have done well, it's not easy to go out and improve the lineup in 3 positions in one offseason. Still one move out there that could strengthen two more, sign Vlad Guerrero to DH and move Luke Scott to LF. The O's are still down on payroll from last year, so there's room to make the move.

Lee's been best as a 3 hole hitter. Luke and Reynold's would seem to slot as productive 5 & 6 hole hitters, so getting a solid cleanup guy would slot this group of hitters into their most productive spots in the lineup.

I still see the need for a cleanup hitter, and Guerrero seems to be the only one left on the market. Thome would fit more if the O's feel that they could slot Lee at the 4 hole.

Have you heard any rumblings about Guerrero at all? Seems like even Texas has put him on the backburner while they toyed with the possibility of Beltre.You'd think the availibility of a hitter like Guerrero would be creating more buzz, even at 35. To me he's still an impact bat, maybe the best that was out there this winter.

I know he can't play defense in the Series, but the O's got a ways to go before that problem would come up.

Now for the other sore spot, any word on any movement with Gregg? The guy should have about shopped that offer from the O's around the whole league by now. Seems like another LaRoche, maybe he never wanted to be here anyway.

Let the Nationals have him too!

All of you people projecting Adam Jones as a #2 hitter are out of your skulls. Nobody with a .319 career OBP should be batting 2nd, and his strikeout-to-walk rate is horrid.

He is a good bunter, though, I'll give him that. But until he learns to stop chasing outside breaking trash smart pitchers will handle him.

1 roberts 2b
2 jones cf
3markakis rf
4 reynolds 3b
5 scott dh
6 lee 1b
7 weiters c
8 reimold lf
9 hardy ss

Chas,
Apparently you do not remember the successful test with Jones in the 2 hole before an unemployed previous manager of this team took him to the 5th hole and told him he was a HR hitter? Jones had his highest production ever over the course of those two months. Look it up! Jones can be a great hitter if he stays gap-to-gap focused. He'll protect BRob and stay on the ball longer which allows him to go the other way more often and not be pull happy. Check back in after April 1...you'll see about 30 people posting you to eat crow beecause we're right! These guys know baseball! Also, if anyone believes Weiters has earned anything higher than hitting 7th, please tell me why. Lastly, Reynolds will hit 6th. With high OBP guys like BRob, Jones, Markakis, Lee and Scott all bunched together, it's the perfect spot for him, with Weiters, Hardy and Pie to follow. You'll see.

I watched Hot Stove and Gammons, Billy Rip and Mitch Williams, all gave big props to the signing of Lee. Gammons talked about how a guy like Lee and a coach like Willie Randolph could be beneficial to Adam Jones in taking the next step. Gammons thinks Jones is so close to being a 5 tool player.

There are still a lot of what if scenarios with this team, but this could be a very intriguing team. We all know the players that have been added, but just as important to me is that this is the 1st time in a long, long time where the entire staff has been picked by the manager. Buck knows the guys on his staff and trusts them and I think that's HUGE! We had bench coaches that didn't even know the manager in the past few years so I think everyone on the coaching staff will be preaching the same message.