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January 27, 2011

As the Vlady turns; don't look for his autograph at FanFest

The Orioles have not moved any closer to getting designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero, so the hopes of seeing him jump from behind a curtain at FanFest on Saturday wearing “Baltimore” across his chest can be dashed. It’s not going to happen. Sorry.

Here’s what we know on the Guerrero front. His agent and the Orioles talked this week, as The Baltimore Sun reported Wednesday. A preliminary offer was made, and it sits between $3 million and $5 million, according to an industry source.

Fox Sports first reported the estimated offer, and ESPN Deportes came back with the assertion that the offer was $2 million and Guerrero was “not excited” about it.

My take is that the Orioles would be willing to spend about $4 million on Guerrero and the deal is available now if he wants it. I don’t see them offering him $5 million; that seems to be out of their comfort zone, and they aren’t getting into a bidding war for his services at this point. I also don’t see Guerrero jumping at $4 million today; he’ll likely shop around a little longer to make sure there is nothing else out there now that he knows his initial demands won’t be met. What’s another week or so?

Guerrero made $6.5 million last year (which included a $1 million buyout), and he was reportedly seeking a two-year contract worth between $16 million and $20 million when the offseason began. So a $4 million deal for a dangerous hitter like Guerrero would be a coup for the Orioles.

As it is, pretty much all the teams that really need a designated hitter have filled that hole, though the Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels might still be in play.

Guerrero is on an uncomfortable island, considering other DH types who have signed elsewhere — Adam Dunn (four years, $56 million, Chicago White Sox), Jim Thome (one year, $3 million, Minnesota Twins), Hideki Matsui (one year, $4.25 million, Oakland Athletics), Manny Ramirez (one year, $2 million, Tampa Bay Rays), Johnny Damon (one year, $5.25 million, Rays). Former Orioles castoff Jack Cust got $2.5 million from the Seattle Mariners, so you really can’t expect Guerrero to get less than that.

His timetable is unknown, but a Guerrero announcement at FanFest would be among the biggest upsets in Orioles history. First, the Orioles don’t make announcements until contracts are signed and a physical is completed. Given Guerrero’s age and past injury history, a physical would be a certainty before a deal is official — and that would have to occur today for a Saturday announcement. And a physical hasn’t been scheduled — mainly because the sides aren’t close to a deal (sensing a theme?).

Fans get excited about that possibility, especially when they consider that news of Miguel Tejada’s signing broke at last year’s FanFest. But that was not publicly announced by the club at the time, and it was in more than just the discussion stages heading into that Saturday.

It’s still possible the Orioles and Guerrero will find a happy medium. But until then, you’ll just have to sift through the continual, incremental updates and the rampant speculation.

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Posted by Dan Connolly at 6:06 PM | | Comments (34)
        

Comments

I think 5 mil on a one year for Vlad is a steal. He could bring in a nice prospect at the deadline too which makes it a win win. He knows with a big year he will get another shot at a ring if the O's are out of it as expected.

I love Reimold too but no harm in him starting in AAA and pushing his way back. If by some crazy situation, Reimold is hitting .320 in AAA and Pie is hitting .320 on the big club, worse things could happen then having to figure out how to get Reimold up.

Would love to have this guy, but the reality is, the O's don't *need* him and seem to have all of the leverage in this situation. I would think that $4M with various attainable incentives that could earn him another $1.5M is more than fair.

I think Vlad will obviously shop around for a better deal, but not sure he finds one. And if this doesn't come to fruition, I don't consider it a crushing blow for the O's. They have a much more palpable need at SP.

Jeff/Dan,

I agree that $4 million is probably the furthest the Orioles should go as far as base salary for Vlad.

My question is- would they be willing to put in escalator clauses based on at-bats or games played? Similar to what they've done for Izturis and Lee? Maybe give him the opportunity to collect an additional $1-2 million that way?

Or even bonuses based on attendance? That's what the Rays did for Johnny Damon, which was a creative way to add a potential bonus.

We gave Atkins 4.5 million last year and he proved to be a major scrub. Guerrero has been and still is a fantastic hitter give him the 5 million he is worth it. Then again Andy could be listening to the genious pro-scout and talk him into signing Atkins and perhaps the same scout thinks that he could find another Atkins instead. Memo to Andy sign Guerrero you won't regret it he is a proven commodity.

Dan,
As a professional sports writer, you probably have a better angle on this than us fans. So here's the million dollar question of the day. What is your gut feeling of where Vlad is going to end up? O's, Jays, Angels or maybe the Japan? Enquirering minds want to know.

Art makes a great point. If you can't find the $5 million to pay for a GREAT player (he's still great - isn't he only like 34???) than this team doesn't deserve to win.

4.5 million to Atkins, I want to vomit.

Let's just hope the O's are bargaining hard, and actually plan to sign the guy. I guess I can't blame them for trying to keep their overhead down. I just hope they don't blow it.

I hope that McPhail has at least offered Guerrero 5 million. Anything less for a man who hit .300 +29 HRs + 100 RBI is an INSULT. Luke Scott hit 27 HRs and came nowhere near .300 and he's getting 6 million++ ??
Somebody make an offer that he'll take!! Not some low-ball take-it-or-leave-it deal. This team has millions of MASN, concessions, souvenir, tickets, profit sharing revenue, dollars to use to pay Guerrero 6 million for at least one season. Those other DHs who make less aren't playing with a perennial loser like the Os. We have to pay more cause nobody wants to be here. PAY HIM !!!!

Its already going to be difficult enough to try and get him to sign based just on the fact that he would have to shave and cut his hair, (when is last time we saw him without facial hair....Expos?) but on top of that, coming into a community that does not go out of it's way to make people of Latin decent feel particularly comfortable, and they don't want to pay him on the level of what Scott, or worse Atkins received, with all of those All-Star appearances, and HRs, and RBI, and hits. PAY HIM !!!

Who was it that said "grow the arms and BUY THE BATS" ? How about one that hits .300+ 30HR+ 100RBI+

Oh My god, we could have Vlad(even at 36) for 5 million(total steal) on a 1 year deal?..... and we are playing hardball. And peeps are actually agreeing with it, ridiculous. This is why the Ravens dominate even in the middle of baseball season. Awesome owner!!!

I said it before & I say it now: Lets "load up" & compete in the AL East! Let the players fall where they will with healthy competition! that's the way Buck likes it! I hope they sign him for about 4-5 million with some HIGH incentive clauses that are attainable for Vlady. That way he can EARN as much as 7 or 8 million.

I see that the Orioles are still playing games and just don't really want to win.If I was the owner,I would offer him 3 years 15 million.That's what they should really offer him because he will most likely DH anyway.Think about what Sosa got and he wasn't half as productive.The Orioles have to stop holding back.They have too many doubts and you can't have success when you doubt.

Did you see Vlad's tailoff at the end of the season? How much will you like him if that's what we get. is 5 mill too much for his 2nd half stats? yes...

I'm all for this but not for that much dough

The hell with vlad.We have scott and a whole lot cheaper.Vlad can't play the field and neither can scott. We don't need to double up on dh's.

dspedden,
Why does any community need to go "out of it's way" to make people of Latin decent or people any other decent feel comfortable? Where is your proof? How about if those people go out of their way to make the community particularly comfortable about them?

I keep hearing a lot of fans talk about Thome and the 3 mil he signed for, but he was offered 4+ mil from Texas, but he likes the Twins. I think Damon is the best comparison. Vlad had the far better year, but Damon can play the field while a guy like Manny is all but done in my opinion so any comparison to what he making in 2011 is irrelevant.

Dan, why wouldn't the O's go up to 5 or 5.25 mil? I would think that would get it done at this point and avoid a bidding war. If they didn't feel comfortable about guaranteeing that amount, give 4 mil for the base and the rest if he reaches X number of plate appearances.

It will be sad to see the O's let Vlad get away at this point. I don't care that we have Luke, we aren't losing him, we are adding a guy who is going to make everyone better. This is still the AL East and are only hope for a 5th starter is going to be a reclamation project so if you get a chance to add a bat like Vlad, you do it!

--
I dont disagree, but I am not in charge.

Well, I see the concensus is for Vlad. BUT, most of you guys want Andy the Turtle to make a quick decision (never in a million years) AND you said/had the naughty thought of PA coming up with even more money now-or later by incentives. MORE just isn't in PA's vocabulary. He's lived his life as a lawyer outwaiting the other side and he carrys that over into his other job without noting that, indeed, it is ANOTHER JOB!
And Donald even suggests signing Vlad for 3 years? PA wouldn't sleep nights for fear that, after a terrific half season, 1 1/2 good seasons, even 2 1/2 good seasons, Vlad would get hurt and PA would have to pay him without getting playing time while he recovers. Jeff, when was the last three year or more contract? Maybe Cal, who never got hurt. PA must have really loved him. 1400 plus innings every year without having to pay for a backup. Like Christmas every day to PA.
Back to Vlad. He's certainly worth $4m, or even $4 plus incentives but that's a stretch for the O's.
And just suppose Vlad has a banner year, .315, 40 hr and 155 rbi's. If that happened the fans would want PA to resign him AND, for a raise! Do you see where this is going. PA thinks about scenarios like that all the time.
Suppose, just suppose Guthrie and the 4 young'uns all have banner years, Roberts stays healthy and makes the All Star team along with Nick, Weiters has a hitting coach who WILL take that loop out of his swing therefore making him a 35 hr guy, Reynolds and Lee match their best years in the past 5, Pie and Scott have good offensive years, JJ Hardy belts 35 in this bandbox and the battle between the bullpen all stars, Gregg & Koji, makes everyone out there better and the team winds up ahead of the Yankees, PA, after proving he could do it...would he sell the team to Cal and let the rest of us live happily ever after?
Nah, I'm just dreaming.

SIGHN HIM FOR CRYING OUT LOUD. LUKE SCOTT AN REIMOLD TOGETHER AND PIE HAVE DONE WHAT THE LAST TWO YEARS ????? STOP BEING CHEAP ANS SIGHN HIM ALREADY !

Give him 'Jack Cust' money.

My concern if the O's were to sign Vlad for a low price-- will he be motivated? He had his big year last year and is not being rewarded for it. And his second half numbers last year were down substantially. I know that Vlad doesn't have a history of being a grump, but could this affect clubhouse chemistry if he accepts a deal and comes to a team as a last resort and not because he really wants to be here?

I would like to see them offer him $4 million plus consecutive options for 2012 and 2013 that vest if he reaches 500 plate appearances a season. That would get him through his 500 home run season and probably within reach of 3,000 hits. It would also make him a lot less expensive than Scott, who will need to be traded before next season unless they increase the payroll, given anticipated arbitration increases for next year.

I would give Vlad a $4 mil base plus $1m incentives if he accomplishes 4 steps: 25 HRS/100 RBI; 500 ABs; MVP; playoffs (automatic $1mil)

Make him a take it or leave it offer for $5.25 mil. If he doesn't take it close the door.

I wouldnt sign with the O's. They try to get everything on the cheap. It has damaged the club's reputation. He will sign with Texas..
you expect him to sign for less than Cust. HaHa
Look at his stats people.

To Mr Angelos

Last season , we went to ONE O's game , and that was with FREE tickets .

Do you want us to attend more O's games this year ?

Then tell Mr MacPhail get on phone and negotiate and make agreement with Vlad Guerrero . i give you my word , Mr Angelos , can you give us O's fans your word ?

Offer $5million with a deadline. But don't send the same tired old message that we only want to steal you on the cheap. Its humiliating to the player and encourages them to look elsewhere. Vlad is a beast of an RBI guy. No way Pie and Riemold together come close to his run production. We gave a no hit Garrett Adkins 5 million after he had a terrible 2nd half with the Rockies. Vlad had 29 homers and drove in 115 runs. He gives immediate cred to an O's batting order that could be fearsome. A no brainer.

as i have been saying vlad is not comming to baltimore

All you nay-sayers, are you ready for Vladdy's big announcement at Fanfest? MLB insiders are saying it's going to happen.

AM played this one so smoothly, choosing early on to stay on the sidelines until virtually everyone told Vlad, "thanks, but no thanks".

I just hope that when he does come here he plays mad all year like I think Lee will because of all of the teams who passed on them.

My guess is the O's give him ONLY $4 mill. with incentives.

It's getting real exciting again people!!

leonard, learn how to spell and then stop crapping on our parade...you are a very angry person. I mean really, why would anyone constantly have the initiative to be so negative in the face of all of the positives happening right in front of one's grammar-challenged self?

Offer Vlad 5 mil plus a 2nd year club option for 3.5 with incentives.

This has become a no brainer.

What is the worst that could happen?

The O's have a little play to make a trade for a SP (you name the players the O's offer).

Or, he flops and the O's eat the 5 mil.

Or, he cooks and the O's get a bargain for a 2nd year on the back end even with the incentives .

Or, he cooks, the O's flop, and they trade him at the June deadline for prospects.

How can there even be a question about having Luke Scott or Vladimir Guerrero as your everyday DH. Luke Scott
career: .268 avg. 103 hr, 319 rbi. Vladimir Guerrero career: .320 avg, 436 hr, 1433 rbi. Get this deal done now!!!

Vlad! He gave me a lot of Fantasy points over the years. Bring him on.

I WOULDNT OFFER MORE THAN THAN 4-5 THATS MORE THAN HES WORTH AND HE MAY FLOP -HE CANT PLAY OUTFIELD CANT RUN --SO-SO ARM -PLUS I DONT SEE ANYONE GOING CRAZY TO GET HIM --IF HES THAT GREAT A HITTER -HERE HE WOULD BE 15-20HR -75 RBIS -MAYBE .285 DEPENDING WHO BATS BEHIND HIM --IS IMPORTANT --LIKE EDDIE MURRAY --WHICH MADE CAL GET BETTER PITCHES .

A few years ago when Vladimir Guerrero was a free agent the orioles tried to sign him. Vlad stated he choose the Angels because of the large Latin community.
Well Baltimore's Latin community is still small compared to California, Texas, and Florida or maybe the Mexican league. Let him take his old age injuries and strike outs to one of them. Five , Four and even three million is too much.

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About the bloggers
A Baltimore native, Dan Connolly has been covering sports for 14 years, and baseball and the Orioles for 10 seasons, including the past six with The Sun. His first year covering baseball on a daily basis was Cal Ripken Jr.'s final season as a player. It's believed that is just a coincidence.

Steve Gould is an assistant sports editor for The Sun, overseeing Orioles coverage. The Columbia native joined The Sun as a sports copy editor in 2006 after graduating from the University of Maryland.

Peter Schmuck has been covering baseball for a lot longer than Steve Gould has been on this earth. He is now a general sports columnist, but has been a beat writer covering three major league teams (the Dodgers, Angels and Orioles) and also spent a decade as the Sun's national baseball writer. If you want more of his insight on the Orioles and other sports issues, check out his personal blog -- The Schmuck Stops Here.


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