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December 10, 2010

Prediction Friday: Ravens-Texans and evaluating the Orioles' week



Our Prediction Fridays for 2010 are dwindling, so enjoy them while you can. Even if this one didn’t start until after lunchtime. We’re dealing with a winter meetings hangover here -- and those are much worse than the ones caused by imbibing. Trust me

The bar was open this week, but the lights were low after another one that got away from the Ravens against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. I want to thank all of those who wished me a happy birthday last week; you guys are great. Here’s a special plug to Paulie with his insights on Dec. 3 birthdays. I wish I were more like Joseph Conrad. However, my right foot, my friends will tell you, does emulate Rick Mears’ and Bobby Allison’s.

We had so many visitors to this joint last week that we obviously had a chunk of people picking the Steelers. Free drink chips go to MikeB and Ima Bustacap, who both had Pittsburgh winning, 17-13. The free tab of the week gets slapped into the trusty hands of Tom, who gave the Steelers one extra field goal, predicting a 16-10 win for Pittsburgh.

So here we go again -- with a "Monday Night Football" matchup of the Ravens at the Houston Texans. It won’t be an easy one, because the Texans have a solid team and an explosive offense. But I don’t think they are as well-rounded as the Ravens -- and I don’t see your purple heroes dropping two in a row.

So I am taking the Ravens to win this one in Houston, 24-13. I’m still waiting for Ray Rice’s breakout game, so I am going to that well again and predicting him as player of the game with two touchdowns and nearly 200 all-purpose yards.

Now, I need your predictions. Give me the winner, score and player of the game and I’ll give the closest some props next week.

We’ll also make this a 2-for-1 deal today. I spent the past week in a hotel near The Happiest Place on Earth. And I am not talking Carl Crawford’s accountant’s office.

Lots of crazy bucks spent this past week -- not by the Orioles, though. Shocker there, I am sure. Still, the Orioles walked away from the Swan and Dolphin Resort with a new third baseman (Mark Reynolds), shortstop (J.J. Hardy), utility infielder (Brendan Harris) and a re-signed late-inning reliever in Koji Uehara.

It likely won’t get them anywhere near the Boston Red Sox or New York Yankees, but it was a solid haul for the winter meetings. Obviously, we need to see what the Orioles do at first base and the bullpen before we can fully grade the offseason. But I want to know what you thought of their moves this week.

Like the trades and re-signing? Hate the fact that they didn’t make a big splash? Or just resigned that it doesn’t matter in the AL East?

Daily Think Special: Prediction Friday: Ravens-Texans

Bonus Think Special: Evaluate the Orioles’ week at the winter meetings

Posted by Dan Connolly at 1:32 PM | | Comments (50)
Categories: Connolly's Corner Sports Bar
        

Comments

Ravens 24 Texans 10

O's winter meeting grade: C- Starting to wonder if we are capable of making a big slash in the free agent market until we have an entire breakout season. Maybe the next move will be getting rid of Scott. I have a feeling he will be a clubhouse cancer next year, hopefully it will not be in the O's clubhouse.

Ravens 41 Texans 24

MVP - Flacco

McPhail had to start somewhere. If the starters show well, hitters will come to OPACY ...

UPSET WITH NO BIG PLAYS LAST WEEK, BUT IF THEY ARE GOING TO MAKE THE PLAY OFF THEY WELL HAVE TO DO IT BIG MONDAY SO !!!

RAVIN - 35
TEX - 10

THE ORIOLE'S ARE DOING WHAT THEY CAN WITH A OWNER WHO DOES NOT HAVE THE MONEY TO THROW OUT THERE BUT THEY MAY GET TO BE A 500 TEAM THIS YEAR AND MAY BE NEXT TO LAST

Did you see this one in the NY Times?:

Joe Flacco completes just 7 of 30 passes, but they go for 420 yards and 6 touchdowns. Pick: Ravens.

Ravens 28 Texans 10

The O's are doing it right. If they can get LaRoche they will be over .500 this year. They might not contend for a wild card yet but they are much better than last year.

Sign Adam LaRoche and the reliever Gregg and I will deem this offseason a success.

Texans - 24
Ravens - 23

I like the deals, and if we add a solid first baseman then I dont see why we couldn't field a .500 team. If some of our young players step it up, we could even contend but that is still probably a long shot.

In response to Luke Scott becoming a cancer, you got to be kidding me. Everyone may not agree with his political thoughts or ideas (although I support them), he is still one of the nicest guys you'll ever meet and does not let it affect his play on the field or in the clubhouse. If anything, I think he'll gain more respect for voicing his opinion whether you agree or not, there are not very many players with personal integrity like that.
--

Just for the record: No one associated w/ this blog has called Luke a clubhouse cancer. Jarrod is referring to other posters. Luke is a media favorite in Baltimore because he is both friendly and exceptionally accessible.

Ravens 23-17 over the Texans.

I give the Orioles a B- on what they accomplished at the winter meetings. They filled 3 spots and acquired Harris who they should include in a trade later on ( not of use to us with Andino on board). Realisticly , they had little of no chance of signing an aging big name and should not have anyway, losing a draft choice and tying up money that can be used later on. Sign LaRouche and either Gregg or Wood and we look a lot better in 2011, worth watching for a change. Might also sign Guerrero or Thome cheap also for a year, Never too many bats around.

I think the orioles definitely got better this week. IN the Al east that is about all you can ask of them.. YOU do know about every 5-7 years usually a young team will will take off on a season run and often go to the world series on pitching and defense.. That is the type of scenario the orioles will probably need.. AS long as they eep improving that is all I can ask??

Give me a Bud to celebrate the end of the work week!

I'll take the Ravens winning by a score of 31-24. Flacco is mvp.

I'm very happy with how the winter meetings went. The O's aren't going to land a big name until they end a season close or above .500. This could be the season where we reach that level.

Joseph Conrad didn't even learn to speak English until he was in his 20s. Makes you sick, doesn't it? I think Sunday night was a wake up call--not for the Ravens players, but for the staff. They were out-coached. The Steelers had a gimpy QB, a patchwork O-line and an amateur punter. They were ripe for the picking. So I think it gets taken out on the Texans. Ravens 41, Texans 13. JJ Hardy will have a bounce back year (look at his BA for the second half of 2010) and AM will get an A for the meetings when we look back this time next year.

--
Birdbrain, I didn't know that about Conrad. You're absolutely right. What's my excuse? By the way, I was lukewarm about "Heart of Darkness" when I was forced to read it in hs. Read it again a few years ago and was blown away.

I'm somewhat disappointed that the O's didn't try to trade for Adrian Gonzalez, especially when it appears that the Red Sox didn't give up that much, but I'm not sure that the Orioles could've met the offer. In any event, overall, I'm pleased with what they've done. Now, if they can sign LaRoche, things will look a whole lot better for this coming season if they can all stay relatively healthy.

Ravens 31-24

i think they did OK at the winter meetings. they addressed a good many of the changes that we needed to make. We've upgraded at Third and Short and signing Koji was huge. Sign Laroche or even Overbay and our infield is much improved. Sometimes the deal we didn't make is equally as important as the ones that were completed. Having Brady vouch for Reimold's training process (and improvement physically) was important for Buck and Andy. There are understandably some big IF's in left field, but it could turn into a platoon system like Roenicke and Lowenstein baack in the day. Overall, good job, but we're not quite Dunn (pun absolutely intended).

Ravens 41-24. Joe opens it up. Boldin, Mason and Stallworth have nice games, but my MVP for the week is Housh with 2 TDs.

Orioles. Putting aside my usual rant about baseball being a disaster, the O's are getting there. Remember, they had the best team in the AL East from the time Showalter was hired till the end of the season. The O's aren't as far behind as it appears on paper. They are better than both the Yankees and Red Sox in the manager position. As another post mentioned, sign LaRoche and we're better than 2010. Do that next year, and the big names may want to come play here. Injuries are always part of the game. Couple injuries here and there in NY or Boston and you never know.

Texans 27
Ravens 14

One of the Ravens will go down with a serious injury

Flacco throws 2 ints and Boldin loses it on the sidelines

So the Nats with only a one third share of MASN shelled out 146 million for Jason Werth overpaying to make sure he'd sign with them. Therefore we should be able to afford 2 Jason Werths or one Prince Fieder. Oh I forgot, no one's supposed to be annoyed that the Orioles only sign everyone else's leftovers because signing a big name free agent is impossible! Right?

Ravens? I think Poe is overrated.
But the Orioles, ah the Orioles, still aren't as dangerous as the Sox or as experienced (a.k.a. old) as the Yankees but they will, at least, be competitive. They managed to add two players, both under 30, leaving Roberts the old man of the position players. Now it all depends on the young players maturing and improving...

Ravens 24, Texans 13.

I was not satisfied with the Orioles' moves at the Winter Meetings. They improved 3B and SS (assuming these players return to healthier forms), but they failed to take a real shot at a big-bat 1st Baseman free agent and they have yet to obtain a veteran starter.

Plus they traded away a couple of relief pitchers and let Ty Wigginton sign elsewhere for a relative song.

If they sign LaRoche and another decent pitcher or two, I'll eat my virtual '70's-era cartoon bird Orioles cap (the orange, white, and black one).

34-30 houston in a upset.Flacco continues to have troubles.This time defense is the weakest link.Playoffs in jeopardy and I wonder if harbaugh tells the fans to root for another team if we don't like it.

I wish that Wiggy was still with the O's as I see him better than Harris regarding his power potential, but less on defense though not bad. Wiggy made some spectacular defensive plays last year, though. At the very least I would like to see the O's get something for him via trade than just let him go on free agency.

I am very happy that the O's resigned Koji and agreed to come back without a secure second year and closer job. I'm not sure about Reynolds or Hardy because of those extremely low averages. I hope that indeed Hardy is a defensive and offensive upgrade to Izzy. If scott can continue his power and on base numbers and Remi get his going as well as Reynolds than this team should be able to get the high on base guys like Robby and Kakis home.

Ravens 21
Texans 13

Orioles - So far So good, better than average AL team maybe a 500 team this year. I love Luke Scott and agree with everything he said. And If you don't agree with him, well that is part of what makes America GREAT...word from OC, MD.

Until they create a super division w the big market teams, New York, Boston, Chicago, LA and realign Baltimore, Toronto and Tampa Bay w say Cleveland and Cincinati, we will never be able to get to excited about the O's offseason but I like the moves they have made. If they sign LaRoche (please) they will have added over 200 hits, 75+HRs and much better OPS' to the infield and offense. B w LaRoche. C w/out.

Ravens 27
Texans 17

Very happy with the O's moves. Look, no marquee FAs are going to come here until our homegrown core is good enough that, say, Carl Crawford thinks he'd be the difference between 90 and 95 wins - not 70 and 75.

It IS possible to compete in the AL East, but you have to stockpile draft picks (and draft well), sign international FAs, make good trades, etc. Only when/if Wieters, Matusz, Jones, etc. reach a certain level will we be able to sign the one or two big-name guys to put us over the top.

Ravens 28
Texans 17
Player of The Game- Donte Stallworth- Ravens fianlly go vertical- first two TDs

I like what the Os did- it's not gonna get them a division title- not even close, but they will be more competitive. Not really the year to make a big Free Agent Splash -Worth was over paid Crawford has injury issues- not a lot of top notch free agents other than Cliff Lee and he's not coming here. (by the way who ever signs him will regret guaranteeign years 4-7) The Os will be more competitive this year- try for a splash next year. It's about pitchign anyway, and ours seems to be coming along.

Just heard they signed Izzy. Good move as insurance if BRob or JJ get injured. What do we need Harris for? Andy's making one good move a day this week. Now sign LaRousche and a surprise bat or pitcher and we're maybe able to compete with Buck, the best manager since Earl.

Ravens will try to "go deep" in order
to offset the critics who commented on
last weeks debacle. Houston will adapt
and win Houston 21 Ravens 17.
The Orioles acted like bottom dwellers
and the free agents responded..saying
"i do not want to get involved wirh a bunch of losers" a small step that will
produce very little results O's wind up
last in AL east

Speaking of bars, and booze, I'm reminded of an old episode of "Sanford and Son" where Fred was running low on champagne, so he mixed it with Ripple. He called the new concoction "champipple."

The Orioles didn't exactly make a splash at the winter meetings, but it was definitely more than a ripple. Call is a "splipple."

It's a few teams we seem to outmuscle such as the Dolphins, Broncos, Texans. 34-13 Ravens; Mason my hero!

Love the moves the O's have made thus far, LaRoche would be the icing on the cake for me.

Houston is a scarey team. Ravens could win 38-17 or lose 24-17. I'll say: Ravens, 27-17.

As for the O's, let's assume a 1B is signed (LaRoche, Lee), then compare the O's position-by-position with the reigning World Champion Giants. I'd say the Orioles' line-up is comparable, if not better, especially if Jones and Weiters and Reimold make good sized leaps. I'll concede that the Giants have tremendous pitchers (starters and closer), but the O's guys may not be that far off (Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, Bergy, Guts, et.al). If "hope springs eternal" in baseball, even with the bottomless budgets of the Yanks and Bosox, it is NOT impossible that the young O's could be playing meaningful games in August and September. THAT would be a huge move forward, eh?

I think the O's got younger and more athletic. They've improved. What I don't understand for the life of me is, while they have money to spend, they don't spend it. They should already have LaRoche signed as well as a solid middle reliever. I also don't understand why in the world, while playing in the AL east, they don't spend on class A free agents. Doesn't make any sense other than Angelos doesn't really give a crap.

Ahh.... champipple. I remember that. I thought I was the only one.

Texans 27
Ravens 23
Bottom line...Second of four consecutive losses for the Ravens before ending the season 9-7 and bottom line out of the playoffs. Bottom line ravens and fans blame the officiating. Bottom line.
_ _ _ _ _
Decent moves by the O's at the winter meetings. Now they need to sign LaRoche too.
_ _ _ _ _

Bottom line no question bonus prediction:
Keith Mills eeks out a win over Ray Lewis by saying "no question" twice more than Lewis says "bottom line." Quadry Ismail comes in third with "haa haaaaa!" and "my main man"

First of all, to "HK": How in the world can you say Luke Scott is a clubhouse cancer? He is one of the most joyful, fun-going players in the game from all I hear and observe. My buddy who writes for O's Magazine and has interviewed LS speaks extremely high of him. I love having him on the team. Even though I would disagree w/how he handled the Obama comments, who of us hasn't made mistakes?

On to Winter Meetings: while I think all of us would have liked to snag A-Gon, or even a trade for Fielder- the time is still not right. Personally, I love what the front office is doing. The "splash" should, and probably will happen when we are closer to competing for a wild card. I do believe that time is a close and that we will be right around .500 this year. Perhaps that splash is Fielder next year. It still amazes me how many fans forget how bad we really did have it for 10+ years w/no front office direction/plan, and little to no credibility. Between MacPhail, and now Buck we certainly have that. I still emphatically believe that we will spend the $- when AM and Buck say "NOW". Remember Buck's conference- referencing the battle scene from Braveheart: "Hold, HOLD...NOW!" Friends, they have a plan. This team and organization is being built the right way.

As for now, I like the trades and be fine w/either LaRoche or Lee. Lee would actually make more sense if we are going to go hard after Fielder next year. Not sure if either would want a 1 year deal though. Still, I trust AM and Buck to best evaluate these things. Patience, our time is coming.

Dan, you've got me reminiscing. I took an English major to a screening of Apocalypse Now. We walked out, and I said, wow, what a story. It was Heart of Darkness by Joseph Conrad she says. Duh. Later she had the good sense to dump me and marry a guy who was an editor at your rag--but I digress. Jim W brought up one of my favorite subjects, Prince Fielder. Now the conventional wisdom is that the O's can't sign him to an extension because of Boras, so a trade with the Brewers this off-season isn't in the cards. Probably true. But that never stopped me. Here are some reasons Boras and Fielder should want this to happen. First, the money is there. We offered Tex Tex money. He just wanted to be a Yank. Second, the Yankees and the Sox are out of the 1B sweepstakes. If Boras wants to keep selling high to those suckers, he needs to keep the competition in the division tight. Third, 318 down the line. Prince wants to hit 50+ homers more than he wants to breath (to top his dad). Plus the NY short porch and the Peskie pole. (And all of the Sportscenter time that goes with smacking homers in those venues.) And fourth, he'll be playing a few feet from the Babe's dad's bar, and Prince is the black Babe.
On the other hand, Derrek Lee will fit in great for two years until Joe Mahoney is ready. He speaks a little Japanese, so he can help Buck with those two-on, two-out ninth inning chats at the mound.

Ravens 20
Texans 13

They'll squeeze this one out because on the whole they have better players, but the Ravens' problems are systemic--coaching, QB, offensive line, defensive smarts, defensive will, and offensive brains. Look for a 10-6 season. Maybe they'll make the play-offs, maybe not.

ORIOLES: Off-season so far--minimally adequate. Still aparent--inadequate run-production. Also still apparent--a lack of ambition. Lee would be preferable at 1B but has made it clear that he has no interest in Baltimore. LaRoche will be hard to sign, but AM has to get this done. Both 1B and LF should be upgraded in terms of run-production--1B: LaRoche (2 years max.); LF: ? Pie is a utility player at best, Reimold a gamble. Scott's a good hitter but below average defensively and should stay at DH. IMO, the O's should package Pie, Reimold, Harris, and a pitcher or two and go after a big time power outfielder. THAT would make for a true major league line-up (no holes)--and a very good off-season.

Texans 27 Ravens 24. The Ravens score 3 touchdowns in the 1st half and have a 21-10 lead and then Cam takes his foot off the gas and limits Joe to checkdowns underneath to Rice. We go 3 and out numerous times and the defense gets exhausted.
***************
O's? Pretty much what is to be expected. McFail will say he was looking for the right fit and apologists in the media will continue to say that no free agent wants to come here. Really? So why did Jayson Werth go to the Nats (National League's version of the O's)? We didn't even make an offer for Konerko. How is that possible? Just think, the Tigers, who lived in a depressed town with high unemployment, lost 119 games in 2003. Now they are always in it.

Ravens - 31
Texans - 13

I like the two trades when coupled together. I didn't originally like trading Hernandez but we now will get 15 -30 more HRs from 3rd and SS than we did last season with about the same level of defense. I am a little worried about not having enough relief pitching depth.

texans want to end the ravens season --they should have lost to buffalo -tampa bay -and if pitts had a team week 4 this would be a nothing game --cleveland will beat them also.

ravens- 27
texans- 17


the offseason can be deemed successful in my eyes as it seems to be a more positive attitude about the team these days

O's ~ new players coming here via trade so they didn't have a real choice. We need a couple decent years before really good free agents will WANT to play in Baltimore against RSox and NY.
Ravens 17 ~ Texans 12

I think we made solid progress in the meetings and would say it is a solid B- , If we get LaRouche - it is a solid B or A-

Also - the next step for the Orioles is competing to a winning record - If we do this then you can open up the wallets - yes - as fans - we are impatient. Yet, O's leadership is making smart choices with long term implications. Our organization was in terrible shape with Andy got here - it is in in much better shape now.

I had kind of given up ... but then we got Showalter ... and now have made some solid aquistions to fill critical holes. I am looking forward to how our young arms develop this coming year. If we can play at the caliber we did at the end of this year - we could end up better than 10 games over 500. Then I would expect us to be very active for big names next winter.

Ravens 35-Texans 14....O's B....Get a 1st baseman and a starter and reliever.

Disappointed they didn't get Konerko but he wasn't going anywhere but Chicago anyway.

As for Reynolds, he'll likely hit better than .200 this year and get around 35 HRs. He's become pretty good defensively and is fast on the bases, when he gets on them that is.

The proffesionals take on Reynolds reminded me of statements I heard many years ago about another third baseman. Just to be sure my memory was correct I went on line and looked up the stats on this guy and sure enough sub .200 years and big time power defined him early in his career. Mike Schmidt turned out pretty well maybe for once the Os will get lucky-or not.

The team that wants it more wins and the Texans need this one to stay in the hunt; the Ravens are resigned to be a wild-card:

Texans 24
Ravens 17

Great input guys, I think the best available deal would sign Guerrero to DH, 1. the O's get a right handed hitter that should love the Yard. 2. This puts Luke on first base so he could quietly express his views.Very glad that Andy didn't trade Reimold, anybody remember a guy named Werth?

Scott can play first if necessary.

Sign either Thome or Guerrero for one year, especially if LaRoche cannot be signed.

Signing one or two pitchers with big league experience and some success at that level would be an improvement.

Buck is the key to success. He must win the hearts of the players and motivate them to play each game as if it was their last.

There is no better feeling than to consistently beat the best teams, especially when all the world says you can't do it. However, one must first believe they can win these games before they have much hope of doing so.

My hope is that Buck can finally be with the O's when they once again reach the top in all of baseball.

Baltimore--34
Houston--20

Flacco racks up three touchdown passes: two to Boldin, and one to Mason. Lewis returns an interception for a touchdown. Cundiff kicks two field goals.

The irony? Ravens talk all week about reestablishing the running game. But they are playing the team with the worst pass defense in the league.

Cam, let's not try to outsmart anybody...particularly ourselves. Go to the juggler and let Joe air it out.

I like the moves Andy MacPhail has made. I can't wait to see Reynolds bang balls into the left field seats. Hardy is ready to bounce back. Both will provide decent defense on the left side.

I wanted Pena for first but, as is said in today's parlance, that didn't happen. Derrek Lee would have been fine 5 years ago. Now, he would be stopgap. It's hard to get excited about Adam LaRoche. Nobody gets too excited about him wherever he plays; he is a nomad. He is a vanilla plug in who will provide OK defense, so I will not be disappointed at this stage if the Birds sign him.

Right now, I would be happier with a guy whose glove is nothing special but who can flat out hit: Jorge Cantu.

I see Cantu, reunited with Jim Presley, as an offensive force. Cantu will hit doubles, has some pop, and will deliver in the clutch. His upside is that he can swing over to other infield positions, too.

Oriole fans, also, would love his low-slung batting helmet.

Ravens 27, Texans 17

Orioles did well, they have definitely upgraded the offense with more to come. All of Andy McPhail's moves make sense, can't really fault him for free agents signing elsewhere, he made legitimate offers to Martinez and Dunn. Wigginton had no place on the team with the moves they made, and his atrocious defense won't be missed. Now, they just need to get rid of Luke Scott and his bizarre affection for made-up "facts." As has been said, everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but not to their own facts. And those who "agree" with Scott's "opinions" need to associate themselves with the facts as well. It shows the worth of one's thoughts on any subject when they cling to falsehoods to justify their bigotry. There should be no place in a modern professional sports organization for a bigot like Luke Scott. Dump him. I will never cheer for him unless he renounces his bigoted views and shows that he's willing to consider actual facts, not the made-up kind.

history works against the ravens. and its also an away game. houston, one of my favorite teams ALWAYS collapses at the end of the year. this is the exception.
houston 28 ravens 13

is baines jr. still playing?¿

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About the bloggers
A Baltimore native, Dan Connolly has been covering sports for 14 years, and baseball and the Orioles for 10 seasons, including the past six with The Sun. His first year covering baseball on a daily basis was Cal Ripken Jr.'s final season as a player. It's believed that is just a coincidence.

Steve Gould is an assistant sports editor for The Sun, overseeing Orioles coverage. The Columbia native joined The Sun as a sports copy editor in 2006 after graduating from the University of Maryland.

Peter Schmuck has been covering baseball for a lot longer than Steve Gould has been on this earth. He is now a general sports columnist, but has been a beat writer covering three major league teams (the Dodgers, Angels and Orioles) and also spent a decade as the Sun's national baseball writer. If you want more of his insight on the Orioles and other sports issues, check out his personal blog -- The Schmuck Stops Here.


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