J.J. Hardy is a good acquisition by Andy MacPhail.

If Hardy is healthy, he is an above average fielding shortstop and his bat could return to his 20+ home run seasons of 2007 and 2008.

I look foward to welcoming him at FanFest 2011 and seeing him in the O's lineup in April.

I really like this trade and what they have done so far. Get me a veteran pitcher and I think we can compete next year.

great move. major upgrade from cesar.

real encouraging that he hasnt picked up a bat in some time. But seriously Im glad hes giving his body time to heal. I think fans and the media are too hard on players to come back from injury and dont realize that what is really needed is time off. Im sure he can regain some of his former self, but I would think his first year, while much better than anything izturis can put up, will still be mediocre. nonetheless, still a major improvement. I really hope he stays healthy. The o's just dont have enough firepower to overcome injuries in my opinion. Well see how the 1st base situation pans out. Sounds like McPhail could be looking internally as well as for a possible trade. I see LaRoche going to the Nats.

Love the attitude with already saying we've played well late in season and we could fly under the radar. Hardy if healthy will be a steal in my book. It seems like Hardy and Reynolds are Buck's kind of guys.

Jeff, have the O's talked privately about an extension or is this let's see what we have before we do anything?

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Jeff Z's reply: MacPhail said that those talks would happen during spring training if they happened. But Hardy's agent will be communicating with O's to try to avoid arbitration. So I guess it's not impossible something gets done.

Nice to hear from Hardy. He sounds like a laid-back kind of guy. Did you get that impression actually talking to him, Jeff? Or is that just the way he talks?

Anyway, it seems like a slow day at the meetings. Have a lot of clubs left already?

Thanks for your coverage, Jeff.

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Jeff Z's reply: That's standard last day of winter meetings. Most team officials shortly after the 9 am Rule 5 draft. I hear great things about Hardy. Multiple reporters who have covered him told me this week that he'll be a clubhouse favorite and a go-to guy with media.

Great. Now let's do another feel-good story on Adam LaRoach being beyond elated at becoming the "newest' Oriole & my Christmas list will finally be complete.

At least he sounds positive about it, that's a good start. This was another good trade b McPhail.

Who's on first?

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Jeff Z's reply: My guess would be LaRoche or Derrek Lee.

Now either get LaRoche or pitching or both. If not LaRoche then put Luke Scott at first and leave him there until he's a bonifide first baseman.

Jeff,
Overall the O's made some solid moves. Of the guys still out there I'd really like to see them go with Vlad Guerrerro because he's the only real proven cleanup hitter to be had.

I like the idea of bringing in a real proven hitter to put at the core of this lineup, I think he could really help out some of the young hitters in the same way that Millwood did the young pitchers last year.

Speaking of Millwood, any news about where he might land? Has he and the O's ruled each other out?

I read on a Marlin site that Ohman probably wouldn't be back because he had developed a sore shoulder. Any news on his status, and do the O's have any interest in him?

And are they talking about Patton as a possible left handed reliever? His numbers against LH hitters has been pretty good in the minors. In the AL East three lefties in the pen wouldn't be too many.

Have the O's shown any interest in John Maine? He's been a solid ML pitcher that just wasn't healthy last year.

One final comment, Zack Britton's importance in any future rotation has had to grow by leaps and bounds. With Boston's lineup, the O's are going to need to be able to have a couple of lefties in the rotation for sure.

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Jeff Z's reply: Haven't heard much about Millwood, aside from Royals and Rockies' interest and the Royals have since said they are not interested. Guess it's not impossible he comes back to Baltimore but would be serious longshot. He needs to get out of A.L. East. Think Patton will get a chance in spring training to be situational lefty, but more likely that they'll sign another lefty to pair with Gonzalez. Ohman would be in mix. Have heard nothing about Maine.

IMHO I see a lineup starting with Roberts, Hardy and Markakis. All three will hit 15+ dingers and set the table. The question now is what happens thereafter.

Hey ! J.J. That's 1/2 the battle. If you want to come to Baltimore, Then you are most welcome. Welcome aboard Have a great year.
Curt S.S. Md.

I am so happy right now. I was hoping for months that we'd get Hardy. This is awesome.

It seems like the same old story, or worse. How is this any different than having Tejada, and Mora playing 3B and SS? I mean, you get the same production combined each year (or close) and we still have not addressed our pitching staff. I mean sure, we are better now with Hardy and Reynolds than we were with Izturis and Bell, but honestly we will never keep up with the Juggernaut Red Sox and Yanks who always seem to demolish free agency when all we do is trade for serviceable veterans with potential major flaws.

Oh well, should be a decent year because we finally have a manager. Maybe that is all we ever needed.

Jeff,

Thanks for the great coverage in Orlando.

What do you think about the idea of the O's signing Beltre and moving Reynolds to first. Beltre's options are drying up and he might be more affordable than before. Have the O's floated that idea around?

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Jeff Z's reply: I've heard that idea floated, but it's more from outsiders, not people in the front office. Beltre and his agent Scott Boras mad eit clear that he's not interested in playing with the Orioles. I guess that could change if he has no other options, but i'm not counting on it.

Only 12 NL players had more RBI's than Adam Laroche last yr, and Adam Dunn only had 3 more, while Adam had 28 less strikeouts than Dunn. Sign LaRoche ASAP before some GM reads my post and scoops him from us!
Reynolds, Hardy and Laroche would produce 200 more hits, 75 more hrs and better OPS's than the junk we had out there last yr.
MacPhail is diligently retooling this club long suffering Bird brethern. Remember what Buck did w that junk last yr, just imagine, 3rd place could be all ours!
hee hee

Pay Laroche what he wants, now.... 5 years 75m......... Simple... quick, allows us to compete.....

The last week or two, there've been a lot of negative comments, wailing, and moaning about MacPhail that the O's were sitting on their hands and not doing anything. Now that the winter meetings are over, the O's proved to be one of the more active teams in terms of roster moves and at least one writer has termed them one of the "winners" of the meetings. If they land LaRoche, the off-season will already be an unqualified success and it's only December.

Sure, the guys we got are not Gonzalez and Crawford, but they were never coming here anyhow, nor were Kornerko, Lee, Beltre, Fielder, and others. But, step-by-step Andy and Buck are going to get us to .500 first, then become a winner, and then the top FA's will come when we just need a couple of players to get us into the playoffs because they will see the O's as their ticket to the postseason. It will be tough competing with NY and Boston and their unlimited dollars, but it will happen.

I like that we're sticking with a good plan, we haven't lost any valuable core players, and we haven't made any wild moves like the Nats did with Werth. We do need to continue to build up the farm system, but while fans may get impatient that we aren't going to contend for the playoffs overnight, we are clearly moving in the right direction despite not all moves working out (Atkins is the prime example).

I hope the negative posters around here will give MacPhail at least some credit for doing this rebuilding while working under Angelos - a job somewhat akin to defusing bombs, I think. I, for one, am looking forward to 2011.

Jeff, now that the winter meetings are over, are you going to post an overall summary and perspective of how think the O's have done given the reality of MLB and Baltimore's place in the heirarchy? I would value your perspective. Thanks.

Any word on the Prince Fielder front?
Just was curious.

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Jeff Z's reply: Nope, as I've said on numerous occasions, I just don't see that happening. I would love to be surprised though.

A lot of optimism and pessimism floating around here. Just wanted to give my two cents on the lineup for next year. I included predictions for 2011 based solely on their 2010 production at their best spots in the lineup with 600AB (which we can really only count on Nick to do). Also, it is important to keep in mind that players numbers improve when they're protected by better players. What do you all think?

1. Brian Roberts (S) - played a bit more than 1/3 of the games in 2010 but ended with .279 BA, 14 2B, 12 SB
(2011 - .279 BA .748 OPS, 37 2B, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 31 SB)

2. Nick Markakis (L) - hit best in the 2 hole, OPS was .100 higher
(2011 - .316 BA, .871 OPS, 38 2B, 20 HR, 76 RBI)

3. Luke Scott (L) - these are based on his 4 spot 2010 numbers which could improve with Reynolds behind him
(2011 - .279 BA, .879 OPS, 30 2B, 35 HR, 105 RBI)

4. Mark Reynolds (R) - these are based on his 2010 numbers from the 6 spot without much protection (Dback #7 hole .686 OPS). Reynolds batted clean-up his in 2009, his best year.
(2011 - .214 BA, .817 OPS, 23 2B, 46 HR, 115 RBI, but 260 K!!)

5. Adam LaRoche (L) - he was primarily in the 5 spot last year, numbers are probably inflated due to Reynolds batting behind him
(2011 - .270 BA, .858 OPS, 50 2B, 33 HR, RBI 133!!)

5. Derrek Lee (R) - had his best numbers at clean-up in 2010, but played primarily in the 3 spot, which these predictions are based on. If we get him, instead of LaRoche, he and Scott may switch places
(2011 - .249 BA, .746 OPS, 30 2B, 22 HR, 84 RBI)

6. Adam Jones (R) - had all of his success in the 6 spot last year with 175 AB, maybe there was less pressure causing him to press less
(2011 - .349 BA, .972 OPS, 34 2B, 34 HR, 113 RBI)

7. Matt Wieters (S) - played mostly in the 7 spot last year. I really think things can only get better for him
(2011 - .228 BA, .671 OPS, 30 2B, 18 HR, 88 RBI)

8. J. J. Hardy (R) - spent more than half the time in the 8 spot
(2011 - .255 BA, .685 OPS, 33 2B, 15 HR, 69 RBI)

9. Felix Pie (L) - injured and then played all throughout the lineup, mostly in the 6 spot but probably doesn't deserve that in this lineup. So this is based on his total 2010 production
(2011 - .274BA, .718 OPS, 31 2B, 10 HR, 64 RBI)

Let's just hope everyone stays healthy. Obviously we won't be seeing all of these numbers in 2011. They are merely extrapolations based on players likely lineup spots with the best data from 2010. Though our offensive production should improve, it isn't likely that we'll hit 221 HRs (from 133 in 2009) and let's hope Reynolds won't get Ked 260 times! All the numbers should be skewed towards each player's overall production over the last two years, taking into account that if the seasons have been plagued with injuries, they're not likely to get 600 AB. And when players get injured, it affects the entire lineup's performance.

So, let us all pray for good healthy, and the foresight of our front office to sign LaRoche. I've also heard McPhail's not as much of a lock for the commish job as people make him out to be. Let's finish this year above .500, ink McPhail to another couple year contract, and pull in some big names for 2012.

GO O'S!!!!

Possible headlines:

Hardy Boy Solves O's Shortstop Mystery

O's Party Hardy with New Shortstop

JJ Repalces Ray-Ray as Top B'more Sports Figure

Could we please stop with the multi-year deal talk about Adam LaRoche? He's a nice upgrade over what we've had here the last few years, but one year and an option would be fine. I'd just as soon have the flexibility to make a real offer to Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder when they hit the market next year.

If we get a real 1B then this has been THE best offseason in a long time. And we should almost include Buck as part of the offseason pick-ups.

We are totally winning the Worls Series this year.....hahahahahaha, Ok maybe 70 games

Jeff, you wrote a good piece on the winter meetings. It was a well written mix of praise on the moves made, which were good under the circumstances, and gloom on the reality of the AL East. That gloom is one of the reasons for my username.

What the hell is a fan to do? Is it just the unchangeable reality of being a middle market team in a division with New York and Boston? I don't remember it being an issue in the early to mid '90s when we often contended (though I wasn't as aware of the economics back then). Is it the current collective bargaining agreement? Is it stingy/gun-shy ownership? Is it just bad karma/momentum of years of losing that can only turn around by developing within the organization until our reputation changes and big stars will take our money?

I don't get it. I mean it seems like things are set up so that the poor teams get the good draft picks. Yet every year New York or Boston or Philly makes a big trade for a huge player. And we have young talent that we can't part with. How can they have that much in their farm system to trade for a player like Adrian Gonzalez if they are getting the later draft picks? I would love to see a piece or post on the nature of the insurmountable obstacles in front of us, and if they truly are insurmountable.

It's all just maddening. I don't know who to be angry at. The front office, the owner, New York, MLB, or God himself.

And really, I just wonder whether to quit following baseball or to stay a...

Hopeless Fan.

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Jeff Z's reply: Thanks, good post.

great trade.. definite upgrade over izturis.. although i hope we bring back izzy in a utility role.. i hope we can get an extension done with Hardy, and solve our probelm at SS until Machado rolls around. I'm definitley glad that we aquired someone who actually WANTS to be here. Next up, LaRoche please! I'd say a few more moves including LaRoche and I think I'd actually be pretty excited for next season! Don't let me down AM!

Great move, sounds like Hardy is a stand-up guy, also a major plus tha he actually WANTS to play here. Sign him up for an extension and we have our SS bridge to Machado. Now all we need is LaRoche and a starting pitcher here and a few relievers there and I'd say it's the most productive offseason MacFail has had here! Not gonna lie, I'm getting pretty excited about next season. Don't fail me now MacFail! Pull the trigger on LaRoche!!

Another grossly underwhelming trade. Hardy is no upgrade from the painfully ordinary Cesar Izturis. Just a newer model of the same-old same-old.

Hey Jeff,

I found an interesting article about Alex Gordon.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/539466-melky-cabrera-signs-with-kansas-city-royals-will-alex-gordon-be-traded

You know he can play first base.
He's still young and it looks like less and less playing time for him in Kansas.
So can Andy MacPhail and "The Other Powers" that be click their heels twice and make him appear in Baltimore?

It's either now or never!
Also, we need "Jimmy" to get on this as well. Can you ask him if thinks he can be saved? Jimmy has a lot of hitting projects already, but adding on more will make it merrier I say ;P

The O's aren't a small market team, but even with MASN, I don't think they will ever be able to compete dollar for dollar with the big boys. The problem was a decade of bad drafts, bad signings which tied up money on bums and cost draft picks and the indecisiveness to rebuild all the way or part way which is what they did when Grover was here.

I don't want to leave the East and I don't think a salary cap will ever come into play which is a shame because every year all the teams would start on equal footing, but I do think a balanced schedule is something that should be done and fast! With a balanced schedule, it's not impossible to believe that we could compete with good drafts, signings our young talent and adding pieces when needed.

It seems like Bud is more interested in another playoff spot which I don't oppose because there doesn't seem to be any strike against being a wild card team, but I would rather him push for a balanced schedule.

A couplee quick thoughts from a Twins fan.

Getting Hardy for those 2 unpolished hard throwing relievers is a good get. Absorbing Harris was a big part of them getting Hardy.

Hardy is a excellent defender, I saw a note that he was a good fielder not at Kaz's level but has more pop. He has more pop but is the superior defender to Matsui in a heartbeat. His arm is so good that it allows Hardy to play a deeper SS which allows more range given his speed and his instincts are second to none at picking the ball up off the bat so quickly at SS.

The reason he wasn't retained in MN was his injuries. I know they doubted his ability to stay on the field for 140+ games a year. His today I can play then tomm he couldnt drove Gardy nuts.

Im dissappointed they moved him as he was seemingly starting to regain his power stroke. He'll never hit 25 hrs again, that doesnt mean he wont hit 15-20 if he stays healthy and be a top 10 SS in the league if he can find any consistency in staying on the field.

I hope it works out for the Orioles, I feel for fans having to play in that division year in & out. If they can sign LAroche they will have a very solid lineup top to bottom. Why they arent jumping at trying to get Chris Young &or Brandon Webb in there on 1 year deals is a mistake. If just one of those guys panned out they could really surprise people.

As a Twins fan living in Baltimore, I have mixed feelings. It is definitely a good trade for the Os. I really like JJ Hardy. Great pick-up. Harris was actually considered the heir apparent everyday third baseman until he lost his stroke. Still has good pop in the bat for a utility player. Great trade MacPhail.

VLADDY 15 MIL 3 YRS GIVES US A GOOD RT. HAND BAT LUKE FIRST BASE

The O's should be significantly improved. If they land LaRoche, they will have a very solid starting lineup on the field. Their young starting pitchers should continue to improve, especially since they will have some runs to work with this year.

Since Camden Yards is a bit of a bandbox, the new guys should hit more home runs than they did previously in larger ballparks.

And speaking of playing in a hitters' ballpark, can we please not go after another starter who is a fly ball pitcher like Millwood? In Camden Yards, it's groundball pitchers that we should be going after.

Jeff-
Thought your article today was spot on. The O's have improved, on paper, an awful lot over last year, but are still staring at a huge gap to even being 2nd in the East. Glad AM has been one of the more active GMs, however he brought a lot of this on himself. I never really understood all the 1 and 2 year contracts the last few years, because then you just push the same problem out to well this year. Not to mention a recession is the perfect time to lock in a great player to a long term contract, because as soon as the market rebounds you're getting those guys at a huge discount [I just did this last year with a house, so my money is where my mouth is]. Anyway, nice balanced article. I think you captured many sides of the issue well.

Agree that MLB should return to a balanced (or at least, more-balanced-than-now) schedule. It would help middle-level clubs like the O's to break through into post-season play, without necessarily having to overcome the Sox and ehe Evil Empire head-to-head 36 times per year.

It would be uphill no matter what, but if we got competitive, it would be possible to fatten up on weaker clubs in the other divisions, while winning maybe 40% against the two behemoths..

Jeff,

Any possible timeline on these other moves? Maybe by Christmas? I know AM said a couple things could be "in the offing".

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Jeff Z's reply: I would think they'll have things mostly wrapped up - aside from a minor signing here or there - by Christmas.

For all of you complaining about complainers, please tell us your predictions for the number of games the Orioles will win in 2011.

If you're happy with the "new and improved" O's as they currently stand and you think that they will only win 70-75 games next year, then I'd like to know that now so I can take your opinions with a grain of salt for the next year.

If an O's fan can't expect to have a winning season in 2011 after 13 consecutive losing seasons, then the FO did not do enough. I'm not even saying that they have to actually end up with at least 81 wins, but if we can't go into the season with that as a strong possibility, then when will we be entitled to have that modest expectation? 2012? 2013? 3013?

divisions
yanks/red sox/phils/mets/
cubs/white sox/detroit/angels/dodgers
baltimore/pittsb/toronto/cleveland
washington/atlanta/florida/tampa
reds/cardinals/royals/brewers/twins
astros/rangers/diamondbacks/rockies
padres/giants/mariners/athletics

winner from each division is in the playoffs. money plays money and it all is fair.

To AL East:

The O's need the young players to take a big step forward - Wieters has been disappointing (merely average, Adam Jones has stalled, Reimold disappeared. Pie has a long way to go to be a "plus" player.

The young pitching has been progressing, mostly, but clearly needs to be better if the O's are going to be competitive.

Tell me how that progresses and I'll tell you how many wins the Orioles get. This team is moving in the right direction, but the pitchers have a way to go, still, before it's a team that can challenge NY & Boston. Can Matusz be an ace? Can Tillman be average? Can Bergesen be average? Can Guthrie be solid? Can Britton step up mid-year and contribute right away? Probably not all of those will happen at the same time, so probably the Orioles will not compete this year.

But the 2011 team is better than the 2010 team, and there's good reason to believe they'll be better in 2012 than in 2011.

What more can you realistically expect?

WTF... he hasnt picked up a bat since the end of last season? gotta love that work ethic,no wonder the twins have been trying to trade him for 3 seasons! I hope im wrong,but I am not exactly thrilled w/ this trade.That said.... Ive always kinda liked hardy.so...welcome to the ORIOLES J.J.!

Jeff,
Do you see the O's going LaRoche, or Derrek Lee to fill out the infield for 2011?

Knowing this team and front office, I can see them going to the scrapheap for a one year rental, such as Overbay.... with the notion that they'll go all out for Fielder next offseason, only to be outbidded by the Sox/Yanks when Ortiz/Posada finally retires as their respective DH.

I so hope I'm wrong.

--
I think LaRoche and Lee --probably in that order -- are the top targets. But other teams have interest too.

Did some of you read the blog? Hardy clearly states that he hurt his wrist and it bothered him for the remainder of the year. Thus, he hasn't picked up a bat to allow the bruise to heal. That would be really smart to continue to aggrivate the injury, wouldn't it? Sometimes I wonder about the people who write into these boards. I like the Hardy deal and hope that they can get LaRoche. That would be a solid lineup, much better than 2010, especially in the infield. Hopefully Reynolds and LaRoche would provide the protection for Markakis that would allow him to get better pitches to drive, thus incresing his HR/RBI production.

To Tim S.,

I expect AM to buy a non-wiffle bat with all that MASN money that FO has stockpiled instead of underbidding on top free agents.

I expect AM to sign another veteran starter who hopefully won't fall apart against the other AL East teams the way Kevin Millwood did. Guthrie has already been put in the #1 spot before and didn't do so well.

I expect to hear other fans expect to have the FO field a team with a potential to have a winning season and not just be "improved". I can't believe that some fans are acting happy that 2011 might be another 70-75 win season.

All 4 players that the O's (re-)acquired: Koji, Reynolds, Hardy, Harris, come with question marks. It would be great if each or most of them could return to peak-performance level, but it's unlikely.

It's also unlikely that Brian Roberts will (ever) be as good as new, we haven't signed a legitimate 1st Baseman, yet we let Ty Wigginton - limited though he may be - go.

We also traded away 2 bullpen pitchers (of varying quality) and several minor leaguers.

This is at best an incomplete off-season as far as I'm concerned. This team has more than enough money to spend this year to get better players.

Orioles offseason ?

See Titanic:

As in, Deck Chairs re-arranged