Looking further into the O's decision on Uehara, Millwood
We’ve gotten a ton of questions about the Orioles’ decision yesterday to not offer their “Type B” free agents -- Kevin Millwood and Koji Uehara -- arbitration, so I’m going to try and offer a better explanation for your Thanksgiving reading pleasure.
Before I do, I want to make one thing clear: I was surprised by the decision to not offer Uehara. I also don’t agree with it. I’m simply attempting to explain what the Orioles were thinking when they made the move.
Let’s tackle the Uehara decision first. It should, at least, be noted that Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail tried to enter a gentleman’s agreement with Mark Pieper, Uehara’s agent, where the reliever would have turned down arbitration if it was offered. That way, the Orioles would have gotten a supplemental pick after the first round of the 2011 draft had Uehara signed elsewhere.
Trevor Hoffman and Javier Vazquez entered in such an agreement with their 2010 clubs. Pieper and Uehara, however, weren’t interested, and the reason is obvious. Uehara stands to make more money in 2011 had he accepted arbitration rather than signed a free-agent deal. The 35-year-old made $5 million last year, and there is no way an arbitrator would allow a pay cut after Uehara pitched to a 2.86 ERA in 43 appearances, saved 13 games, set a franchise record by not issuing a walk in 32 consecutive outings and led American League relievers in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
I don’t care that Uehara had two more stints on the disabled list, giving him four in his two seasons with the Orioles. Pay cuts are rare, and a reliever who was dominant at times for the final three months of the season isn’t going to get one. Instead, Uehara would have probably garnered between $6 million and $7 million in arbitration, a number that MacPhail simply was uncomfortable with because of Uehara’s injury history.
Don’t misunderstand: MacPhail very much wants Uehara back on the 2011 Orioles, probably even to serve as the team’s closer. However, he wants him back on a one-year deal filled with incentives that will escalate if Uehara keeps taking the mound and staying off the disabled list.
There is also a sense that Uehara’s first choice is return to the club. He loves the responsibility of closing, and there are few other teams beyond the Orioles with openings in that role. He likes his teammates and the city, enjoying privacy that was especially elusive when he played in Japan. His son, who is picking up the English language, is enrolled in school in Baltimore.
So I gather the Orioles feel like they will re-sign him anyway. Had they felt Uehara would get a multiyear deal elsewhere, I assume offering him arbitration would have been a slam dunk. But MacPhail has certainly put added pressure on himself to resign Uehara. If he can’t, the Orioles will not only be without their closer, but they won’t get a draft pick either.
Now to Millwood, a situation that is much clearer. The veteran starter made $12 million last season. While he may not have gotten that much for next year had he gone to arbitration, he would certainly have received a figure that would far exceed what he’ll get in free agency.
The maximum 20 percent salary reduction does not apply to free agents, so the Orioles could ask an arbitrator to trim his salary as much as they pleased. However, as I said above in talking about Uehara, significant pay cuts are extremely rare just for practical matters.
Sure, the Orioles could fixate on Millwood’s 4-16 record and his 5.10 ERA. They can bring up the fact that the right-hander was among the league leaders in earned runs, homers and hits allowed.
Millwood is represented by super agent Scott Boras, who would undoubtedly point out how the pitcher pretty much served the exact purpose for which he was acquired. He ate innings, logging 190 2/3, the second-highest total on the club. He was one of the stingiest pitchers in the AL for the first couple of months, and he got some of the worst run support in baseball.
You get the point. The Orioles still would have to offer him a significant amount of money -- an executive from another club estimated about $8 million -- to win the arbitration hearing against Millwood. An arbitrator simply wouldn’t allow a 50 percent or more pay cut for a pitcher of Millwood’s stature.
It was much too risky for the Orioles to offer Millwood arbitration, though I don’t believe the same can be said for Uehara.
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Comments
Jeff, another good analysis. I, like you and just about everyone else, was surprised by the non-offer. And it does put the pressure on MacPhail to re-sign him. I did like reading that Koji likes it here and is open to coming back. Hopefully they can get it done.
I, like so many others of the peanut gallery(I include myself) around town, like to think I know something about the game on the field, who they should get and so forth, but I admit, I am lost when it comes to the contract matters. When you get a few extra minutes after the holiday, could you put up a post that explains the arbitration process and the tendering, non-tendering process, who qualifies, compensation and things like that?
And I have to ask, does Koji's boy have the side burns?
Thanks.
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Jeff Z's reply: Last time I saw him, he had a shaved head so I don't think so. As for a rules post, the stuff is real complicated and hard to explain at times. But hopefully I'll be able to explain it when the pertinent dates come up as in the non-tender date and such.
Posted by: ken | November 24, 2010 8:40 PM
I have liked Uehara like everyone else. At times and only at certain times. You can't expect this guy to do what he did at the end of the season for the entire year, it will not happen. It would be beautiful to see it happen, but the likelihood is that our pitching will again be on the weaker side of our division and the bullpen will be strung out meaning injuries will be likely.
I agree with MacPhail on this one. I just hope that he gets these guys in free-agency or that he gets good replacements for two very important positions.
Posted by: G2 | November 24, 2010 9:31 PM
i am not a koji uehara fan,the orioles just might as well resing him.i do have any faith in andy macphaoil acquiring any better players.no free agent is willing to sign with the orioles, so we might as well accept another bad year and a another bad team.
Posted by: leonard | November 24, 2010 9:45 PM
Once again, good looking out Jeff. Always a plus to get some perspective on the F.O. thinking.
Honestly, I think Andy is only doing his job. While the O's have money, paying Koji or Millwood above market value is bad business and can decrease trade value. But it isn't always reassuring. I think Millwood will deliver better than last year, but a discount is in order.
Is the closer situation clarified to the point where Koji is the closer and Gonzo is the...??? Any indication how the Bull pen is viewed? Gonzo set-up? Johnson in the rotation??
(I know the rumors that Jimmy may join the rotation always come up this time of year, but I'm a fan, and think he'd make a valuable Starter. I thought the Bull Pen was a development, and then later an injury based decision)
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Jeff Z's reply: Assuming Koji comes back, I think he'd be the closer, Gonzalez would be the situational lefty and JJ and Hernandez would be the prime right-handed setup men with Berken (assuming he's healthy) serving in a middle/long role possibly with VandenHurk. But I know the O's have some interest in the relief market, They could sign one or two relievers, which would make it easier to trade or start Hernandez or start JJ. But I haven't heard of any plans as of now to start JJ.
Posted by: paulie | November 24, 2010 10:32 PM
Jeff
Thanks for your excellent analysis on Millwood and Koji cases . I understand and agree with O's decision on Millwood . Koji , on the other hand , is head scratcher and I disagree with O's approach with Koji .
Jeff , If you were in charge , what would you decide with Koji Arbit choice ?
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Jeff Z's reply: The other option would have been to offer it to him and that's what I would have done. I disagreed withtheir decisions. However, I will say this, if MacPhail is able to sign him to an incentive-laden one-year deal, it's going to prove to be the right move. But there is a lot of pressure on him to get that deal done.
Posted by: allan | November 25, 2010 10:19 AM
Jeff -- Happy Thanksgivng to you and yours, and to your readers.
Good column, but depressing. You write that "MacPhail very much wants Uehara back...," but only if Koji is willing to a lowball offer with incentives.
Reading between the lines, the Orioles don't really " very much" want him back--except on their unattractive terms, because teams that are serious about bringing back a player offer them arbitration, because they don't want to give other teams the opportunity to offer to him.
Understand, I'm not saying the Orioles don't want him back, but it doesn't seem re-signing him is a particularly high priority for them. But as you suggest, they have one more question to answer if he signs elsewhere, Who's the closer?, along with its corollary, Will he be as effective as Koji was?
Of course, there are a number of candidates. Gonzo, who was signed to close and who can be hard to hit, but who by wildness can put himself in jams you'd never see with Uehara. J.J. could get another tryout, but he failed before. Berken was very effective prior to his injury, but it's unclear how he'll bounce back. Hernandez, if he isn't traded, but unknown how he'd fare in that role. Mickolio's an intriguing option, but not too realistic, as he's coming back from an injury and has to find command.
Then, the Orioles night need to go outside the organization to find one. Now, a position that figured to be a plus for the team in 2011 has become a question mark.
Oh, and that's not even the half of it. What if an AL East team makes him a better offer to be a set-up man than the O's offer him to close? And don't think Boston or New York won't do it if they have an interest. Now, all of a sudden, the O's have at once weakened their own team and strengthened a divisional foe because on a single ill-conceived front office move (or, rather, failure to move).
Wouldn't just playing fair and giving Koji arbitration have made more sense?
And all this because of front office concerns about Koji's durability that border on paranoia. He pitched nine seasons in Japan's majors and for the most part was very durable, then he comes over here, had a bit of trouble getting used to the heat and humidity when he was starting, then had the hammie pulls, and all of a sudden they're acting like he's likely to break down.
All that said, MacPhail should have a better idea of Koji's health and on his interest in returning to the O's than any of us. All I can say is that the rightly looked very solid down the stretch and seemed to be the answer as closer.
I hope Andy's gamble pays off and he re-sign Koji, I really do, but I have, but am anxious about it.
Posted by: Ken Francis | November 25, 2010 4:30 PM
While this can be explained as prudent financial decision making, I feel this was the year to roll the dice due to the quality of the potential draft picks. Some draft experts have valued a 1st round pick at approx. 5 million dollars and with 1st round talent spilling into the supplemental round by many accounts, this was an opportunity to make a hefty investment in the future.
I also don't think arbitration in either case was all that risky considering the fact that the contracts are non-guaranteed. Milwood's best option is to retire to the National League and a pitcher's park, not stay in the AL East getting his brains beat out. I think the O's could have offered a market-value deal and if they lost arbitration just cut Millwood and owe him the 30 days termination pay.
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Jeff Z's reply: Doesn't work that way, Cameron. You'd be on hook for deal.
Posted by: Cameron | November 25, 2010 5:27 PM