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August 23, 2010

What should the Orioles do with Zach Britton?

One of the most interesting story lines left in the Orioles’ season is what they’ll do with 22-year-old left-hander Zach Britton.

Former Orioles Nolan Reimold, Chris Tillman and Frank Mata, among others, likely will be back from Triple-A Norfolk when rosters expand in September.

But what about Britton?

He almost assuredly will win the organization’s 2010 Jim Palmer Prize for best minor league pitcher. In stints at Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk he is 9-6 with a 2.70 ERA in 24 games (23 starts). He has struck out 107 batters and walked 46 in 136 2/3 innings pitched.

Bringing him up in September makes plenty of sense on one hand, and not so much on the other.

The pros:

Britton didn’t get a spring training invitation, and wasn’t particularly happy with that. He has outperformed several other pitchers who have received call-ups this year, so it would be a nice reward to bring him to the big leagues. He has a bulldog attitude, and it’s doubtful his confidence would be shaken if he didn’t succeed here in September.

Also, it will be helpful for new manager Buck Showalter to evaluate the kid, his stuff and his demeanor if he sees it on the major league level. He’ll get a much sharper snapshot of him in September than in March against spring training lineups.

The cons:

Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has said repeatedly that promotions have to be earned, and though Britton’s nine-game stint at Norfolk has been excellent for a 22-year-old -- 2-3 with a 3.08 ERA, 47 hits, 18 walks and 39 strikeouts in 49 2/3 innings -- he’s had just four quality starts in nine outings. He’s had trouble going deep into games and still has some things to work on before consistently facing big leaguers.

He’s also closing in on his career-high innings pitched of 147 1/3 set in 2008 with Delmarva. So you’d be sending him to the big leagues in uncharted territory as far as innings pitched is concerned.

There are also some procedural matters involving his call-up, such as the fact he is not on the 40-man roster, so someone would have to go to make room for him. The club would also have to create a spot in the Orioles’ rotation for Britton, which could mean the release of popular but scuffling starter Kevin Millwood.

It’s an interesting call. I could probably go either way. What do you think? Should they bring him up and see what he has or hand him the Jim Palmer Prize, shake his hand and send him home after a successful season?

Daily Think Special: What should the Orioles do with Zach Britton this September?

Posted by Dan Connolly at 10:00 PM | | Comments (27)
Categories: Connolly's Corner Sports Bar
        

Comments

Send him to the AFL and don't start his service clock until next June. No question in my mind.

i agree with sometimes sending zach britton to the afl is a good idea.if he does not go to the afl let him at norfolk force feeding these yong players is doing more harm than good

Orioles aren't winning anything this season. Maybe they should take notes from the Angels who are now bringing up their young players because they want be get those players ready for next season. Britton is a HUGE part of our future. Bring him up. He deserves it Dan. But oh ya we have Kevin Millwood. We cant get rid of him because he is a nice guy.... come on. He has no future with us, all he is doing is taking starts from Tillman and Britton. This is why the Orioles haven't won in 13 seasons. If Britton was with another team. He would be in the bigs. Most sportswriters have already said he should have been up in Baltimore.

....counterpoint: Give him a taste of the majors this year. He'll be more comfortable his next time up sometime next year which might translate into better 2011 majors performance.

Dan,

They have to put Britton on the 40-man this year anyway. So it shouldn't matter if they do it now. Thats a petty excuse for not calling a top prospect up. Im sure the yankees or boston worry about kicking someone off their 40-man when a top prospect proves he is ready...not. But this is Birdland....

Sometimes,

I agree with you to a point, but to call up a player during September will not have that much of an effect on his service time(I had to look it up since MLB has such convoluted rules). Each 172 days on an MLB roster counts towards his arbitration eligibility. The 30 days in September will not make him eligible for free agency a year earlier. Since the MLB season is 182 days, he would still hit free agent eligibility after his 6th year(as is the case for most players). If the O's want a look at him, go for it. But I would be more concerned with having him throw a huge number of innings. Baseball America and Keith Law and Jason Gray of ESPN seem to be very high on the kid, so lets not burn him out early...

If he's approaching his innings limit, why send him to the afl? Wouldn't that just expose him for dead arm or maybe injury in 2011?

Innings pitched is huge for these young guys. To do more than 10-15% more innings than the previous year is taking a chance.

Baseball has charted the 50-innings increase for decades now and it ain't pretty. An almost certain arm problem during the following year.

Be smart.

The O's need to establish their bona fides as a destination for desirable free agents. Give Millwood the ball even if he does not plan on returning.

Tillman needs at least two purposeful starts. We need to see tangible improvements in his stuff and makeup. That would help decide whether they go after another Millwood type or go into next season hoping to get 25 wins out of Bergensen+Tillman+Britton+Patton.

We can't get to 85 wins waiting breathlessly for a rookie arm that may need another half season at Norfolk.

Bring him up. The more arms the better!

To create room on the 40-man roster, how about getting rid of someone who isn't liked and isn't any good? Get rid of Lugo and put Britton in the 'pen instead of the rotation and have him pitch a few innings of relief here and there to get his MLB feet wet. This isn't that hard.

DAN, Your points are exact and valid, I would expect them to leave him down until they have to put him on the roster, but Buck would like to see him facing big leage hitters this year in his evaluations.. I am also split on his track in AAA and wonder if he still needs some more time there to force them to bring him up.. Tough call, Andy will get crtisized no matter how he goes unless Britton comes up and is lights out, I'm not sure he is quite ready for that.. With the roll the pitching is on now it is nice to have a problem finding space for these three..

bring him up. let him be a part of a major league team. pitch in relief for a couple of innings . maybe one start. but basically let him sit, watch, ask questions, listen and learn.

The first poster is absolutely right. The Orioles need to be aware of arbitration and free agency. And In Britton's case, he has already thrown enough innings.

They should let him finish the season for the Tides, which means starting September in Norfolk. (And then travel with the team to Durham to make his last start.) If he pitches well enough to "earn" a call up (as opposed to just giving it to him) that would be at least 18 innings added to his total. The good news is his last two starts have been two of his best. The bad news is that prior to those games he only went 6 innings or more twice in seven starts.

I'd say that unless situations change at the MLB level that you shut him down when Norfolk's season ends. He would likely be around 155 or more innings by that time. There isn't a ready-made rotation spot for him, and there is already Tillman ahead of him in line. Unless you want to put him in the bullpen as another long relief guy, there isn't really a need for that either.

Things can always change at the MLB level, so you keep your options open. If Millwood can get traded, if Hendrickson or someone else in the pen gets hurt, if the Orioles need him in the pen or rotation, then he can be added to the 40-man roster and brought up. But as it stands now, put him on the roster after the season and bring him to spring training. And if he doesn't pitch well in his next three games he hasn't earned it anyway.

I agree with Eddie in nyc: the kid's thrown enough innings this year -- don't send him to the AFL; let him get ready for Spring Training.

you need to let him pitch about 2-3 times -so in spring trainning he will have some kind of idea what is expected of him.

Leave him in the minors: the Orioles have already created a problem by stockpiling "inventory", (one that I hope they will resolve in the offseason by trading a few of their young pitchers.) We need to look at Tillman and Vandenhurk (not to mention continue looking at Bergesen, Arrieta and Matusz), and we should give Millwood a few more starts as well.

I vote "no" on Britton.

First off, he doesn't deserve it. He's got just nine starts in Norfolk and he's made it through six in just four of them. Let's see the kid put together a string of five or six quality starts against AAA talent before we throw him into the fire against the best hitters in the world.

Second, as someone already mentioned, why start his service clock early? Throwing Britton in for three big league starts isn't going to do a damn thing for this team. Let him dominate in the minors for those three starts.

Britton should stay in Norfolk for the rest of this season. Then he should rest and prepare for Spring Training. Then he should be told that he's got to earn a sport in the rotation in Spring Training.

And I swear... If Andy doesn't sign a quality starting pitcher (no, Kevin Millwood doesn't count) because he's expecting Britton to take a job and run with it, especially considering what happened with Tillman this season, I'm done with our "two time World Series winning executive" (or whatever it was that smitty called him).

For all of you who say Britton doesnt deserve a callup, you are clueless. Look at his stats this season. This is a TOP 10 PROSPECT in ALL OF BASEBALL who has been pretty much dominate at the two highest level of the minors. So your telling me bergesen,hernandez and berken deserved promotions more than Britton? check out how many starts they had in AAA before they got called up. Britton is way more advanced then they were/are. Ask any scout.

tom -

For your consideration:

Pitcher A: 49.2 innings, 3.08 ERA, 47 hit, 39 K, 19 BB

Pitcher B: 73 innings, 1.85 ERA, 48 hits, 64 K, 34 BB

Pitcher B was also ranked on Baseball America's Top 100, thought not nearly as high as Pitcher A. Pitcher B has a 4.90 ERA in 79 major league innings. His K/BB ratio is backwards at 37/43. He's given up eight home runs in those 79 innings. In AAA, he gave up three home runs in 73 innings.

Pitcher A is Zach Britton. Pitcher B is Jake Arrieta. I have to think you would say Arrieta was "dominant" in AAA as well. And therein lies the problem. AAA hitters are not even close to major league hitters. Pitchers can get away with ineffectiveness and lack of command at AAA, but major league hitters will expose those weaknesses and pound young pitchers into the ground.

This does not mean that I think that Zach Britton has command issues. But he is still working things out. Look at how he's struggled in four of his nine AAA starts (July 6, July 22, August 1, August 8): http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502154

Come on, tom. This team has already rushed Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and even Brad Bergesen. With a rotation chock full of young inexperienced starters and a season already in the dumpster, why rush another special young arm?

I don't know how anyone can tell whether a pitcher's been "rushed." We see guys who clearly have nothing left to prove at AAA fail in the majors. We see guys who do not impress at AAA succeed. I wouldn't bet that way, but it certainly happens. So, I don't know how you can determine that Arrietta, for example, or Tillman, or anyone is "rushed." The only player I can think of in the last 10 years of Orioles baseball who was definitely rushed was Jeff Fiorentino.

The rest of them mostly weren't that good, the current crop is just getting its feet wet. What more did Matusz or Arrietta have to prove in AAA? What could Wieters have learned in AAA? No, they need to learn what works in the majors, against major league competition.

As for your qualms, Dan - I don't see much of a serious objection there.

I think teams generally are looking at holding IP down so that a young pitcher doesn't exceed the previous year by 30IP. In a 5-man rotation, you'd only be looking at 5 or 6 in September starts, max, so maybe he can't make that 6th start, that's about all the impact an IP limit is likely to have. Hey, if he blows through 30 innings in 4 starts, we might really have something!

They'll need to shut down Arrieta soon, anyway, he's already exceeded his IP from last year. I believe Bergesen is close. So there may be a need for a few more starts there, maybe they go with a 6 man rotation (4-5 Sept. starts each).

Anyway, no way this forces them to cut ties with Millwood.

I don't know whose place he'd take on the 40-man, but as another poster pointed out...he's coming onto the 40-man soon, anyway.

Dan,

Zach Britton is actually older than Chris Tillman. And we all know Tillman was brought up to the majors too soon last year. The Orioles pitching prospects have been good but not super. Matusz, Bergesen, Berken, Hernandez, Arieta and Tillman are all good prospects. But they all seemed to struggle at the major league level. None of them has dominated in the majors. They barely had 100 innings pitched as starters at the AAA level prior to coming to the majors. Why allow what happened to Chris Tillman to happen to Zack Britton, too? Next spring is soon enough to evaluate him. Why risk an injury to him?

Haven't we learned about the effects of rushing pitchers to the ML, after watching Tillman and Arrietta?? Britton needs 2 more seasons in AAA. Not 1 but 2.

I know showalter and us eans would like to see him. I am convinced he would be worth seeing if he is near his best.. But maybe his extra innings would be better served in instructional league or the AFL after we give him something special to work on.. HE has shown a willingness to work on things and not worry about his numbers as he did starting this season.. Unless he wows in spring training I would like to see him dominate AAA hitters and force us to bring him up like arrietta this year and Matusz last year. There is still plenty to learn here once he does that.. That is how I would like too see us handle our hitters too, make them hammer enough to force us to bring them up.. ALL depending onour getting a true slugging 1B and maybe a hitting SS this winter..

I would leave him at Norfolk and let him finish his season there. He needs to refine his game and that's where you learn your craft. Facing stacked AL East lineups in September would do him little good on top of the innings issue. Another factor too is he could be a key trading piece this winter for a big bat. Why give teams a pause for concern with a bad September in Baltimore?? Just my two cents

The question is, what would Nolan Ryan do? You know it. Bring him and use him out of the pen, just like Palmer did when he came up. This babying of pitchers really has to stop.

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About the bloggers
A Baltimore native, Dan Connolly has been covering sports for 14 years, and baseball and the Orioles for 10 seasons, including the past six with The Sun. His first year covering baseball on a daily basis was Cal Ripken Jr.'s final season as a player. It's believed that is just a coincidence.

Steve Gould is an assistant sports editor for The Sun, overseeing Orioles coverage. The Columbia native joined The Sun as a sports copy editor in 2006 after graduating from the University of Maryland.

Peter Schmuck has been covering baseball for a lot longer than Steve Gould has been on this earth. He is now a general sports columnist, but has been a beat writer covering three major league teams (the Dodgers, Angels and Orioles) and also spent a decade as the Sun's national baseball writer. If you want more of his insight on the Orioles and other sports issues, check out his personal blog -- The Schmuck Stops Here.


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