Handicapping Ravens' chances in AFC playoff race
The Ravens didn’t get the help they hoped for Monday night from Washington in the Steelers-Redskins game. Pittsburgh’s 23-6 win puts the Steelers at 6-2 at the halfway point with Baltimore trailing in the AFC North by a game at 5-3
The Ravens still have an opportunity to control their divisional fortunes in a rematch with the Steelers Dec. 14 at M&T Bank Stadium but at the moment, the Ravens’ playoff chances skew more toward a wildcard.
At this stage, tie-breakers are difficult to sort through other than to look at divisional and conference records and on that score, the Ravens are in good shape. They are 3-1 in the AFC North and 5-3 in the conference.
The one wildcard tie-breaker situation that could be a problem for the Ravens would be a head-to-head match with Indianapolis since Baltimore lost that 31-3 blowout to the Colts nearly a month ago.
As most Ravens fans are aware, the second half of the schedule is loaded with four games with the NFC East, generally recognized as the NFL’s toughest division so there are a lot of challenges ahead. That makes it all the more imperative to win this upcoming game in Houston where the Ravens are an early 1 ½-point underdog.
So while it’s still a little early to be talking about (cue Jim Mora, please) playoffs, if this were a horse race, you’d have to like the Ravens’ position in the pack as the field heads along the backstretch.
The AFC East. Buffalo, Miami and the Jets are all 5-3 and Miami is 4-4. Theoretically, the division could produce three playoff teams and ace out the Ravens but that’s unlikely because of the competitiveness of the AFC East. The four teams are so evenly matched, they’ll likely beat up on each other and put dents in each other’s records.
The weird thing is that the Dolphins, although a game behind the other three teams, may have the best chance of making the playoffs. Five of their last eight games are against Seattle, St. Louis, San Francisco, Oakland and Kansas City -- that’s a combined 9-31. The other three games are within the division where Miami is already 2-1.
Buffalo may have the toughest time hanging in there. Although the Bills are 5-3, they are 0-2 in the division and have out-of-division games against Cleveland and Denver. The Jets, with a 2-1 division record, have the nominal lead the AFC East, but have out-of-division games with Tennessee and Denver. New England has Pittsburgh and Arizona as out-of-division games.
Indianapolis. It’s hard to believe but the Colts are already left with the prospect of either making the playoffs as a wildcard or fugetaboutit. Indianapolis is 4-4 and already four games behind the undefeated Titans, 8-0. Plus, the Colts have a difficult out-of-division schedule with Pittsburgh, San Diego and Cleveland plus AFC South games against Jacksonville and Tennessee.
The field. Cleveland, Jacksonville, Houston, San Diego/Denver. All of these teams are longshots to make the playoffs with the exception of either the Chargers or Broncos because one of those two teams will win the AFC West. The Browns, Jaguars, Texans and Chargers are all 3-5 and most have tie-breaker problems.
Wildcard standings (just based on conference records)
Ravens 5-3 (5-3)
Buffalo 5-3 (3-2)
New England 5-3 (3-3)
Miami 4-4 ( 3-2)
Indianapolis 4-4 (4-3)
The New York Jets lead the AFC East at 5-3 (4-3 conference) and Denver leads the AFC West at 4-4 (2-4).
Comments
Ravens need to keep pace with the Steelers who have a tough schedule as well and might be without Big Ben (while Leftwich played well last night, we'll see what happens when teams game plan against him). If they can keep it within a game, they can beat the Steelers at M&T just as they have for the past 5 years and hopefully win the tiebreakers. Either way, being in the hunt is all you can ask for at this point in the season.
Posted by: frox | November 4, 2008 10:24 AM
It's imperative that they win against the Texans this weekend, if they don't than it will be much harder and unlikely that they'll make the playoffs. I like they're chances at 6-3 before that tough stretch against the NFC East, it's possible for them to beat the Eagles and Redskins, especially since they looked so terrible last night, at home.
Posted by: Anonymous | November 4, 2008 11:13 PM
Two of the Ravens 3 loses have come at the hands of the Steelers and Titans. They've proved to be the 2 top teams in the NFL this year. We had them both and let them off the hook. So now it's imparative that we beat a team like the Giants if we expect to have a chance at the play-offs. It's good to play those good tough games but you have to win some of them or you become just another also-ran. 5 and 3 we are as happy as can be. Thank you Ravens for the great season so far, and good luck the rest of the season. I'll be glued to the TV screaming and a cussing. GO RAVENS!
Posted by: Rich | November 5, 2008 7:12 AM
To even talk playoffs at this stage is a bonus!
Posted by: Fells Point Craig | November 5, 2008 7:13 AM
Ain't it great that we are talking about good, hard-nosed, tough, interigerty lace football in Baltimore. It starting to stir up the great feelings of the ole Baltimore Colts, and that's saying something. Playing close games against top contenders ain't going to do it. We need to beat the likes of the Eagles, Giants, and Steelers. I certainally am not telling Harbaugh anything he doesn't already know. Thank you Ravens for excedeing our expectations, and bringing big time quality football back to Baltimore. GO RAVENS!
Posted by: Rich | November 5, 2008 7:42 AM
why the heck are they an underdog vs Houston?
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John,
I was surprised.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: John | November 5, 2008 8:17 AM
The one other advantage the Ravens have is they play four of their last six at home. They have one of the best home records in the NFL this decade. Assuming they start the last six at 6-4 they have a very good shot at the playoffs. The last two road games are at Cincinnati and at Dallas. Unless the Cowboys can right the ship they should win both of those.
Posted by: markedman | November 5, 2008 8:32 AM
Ravens need Buffalo, NYJ or NE to win the East, since the Ravens would hold the wild card tiebreaker over Miami. Miami winning that division would leave the Ravens going down the tiebreaker list with other East teams.
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Good point. I considered the Indianapolis tiebreaker but not Miami.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: The Soup Nazi | November 5, 2008 8:53 AM
Doing their indivudual and collective best on the field and winning will take care of any playoff concerns we all may have. Couple this with minimal injuries and this will be a great season for all. .
Posted by: Fred Tepper | November 5, 2008 8:54 AM
This is all well and good to start to consider playoffs but so far they haven't beaten a team that has a winning record. They haven't won a game yet that I thought they weren't going to win. Until they can beat teams with a winning record I still say they are 8-8 at best.
Posted by: Adam | November 5, 2008 10:14 AM
Just goes to show you how every game is as big as the next one. We have to take care of business- one game at a time.
Posted by: Larry | November 5, 2008 12:01 PM
What may really hurt them, of course, is their DB situation. I like Washington and feel like if you give the Ravens a defensive player who was good enough to be drafted in the first round, they´ll make something good out of him. Walker has been playing well but always concerns me, Samari when healthy is solid but does not seem like a legitimate No. 1 cover man at this point in his career. Any word on if the Ravens will pursue DeAngelo Hall, who just got cut? I know he has some critics out there, but it seems like he and Rolle with Fabian as a backup would plug the defense´s biggest weakness. We can´t count on big drops from No. 1 receivers every week!
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Ron,
I have no word on Hall but he may be a salary cap problem unless you get him at a discount. Larger issue is that if Rob Ryan gave up on him, I doubt Rex Ryan is going to be interested.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Ron | November 5, 2008 12:28 PM
The Ravens should be 7 and 1 right now. They should have won against the Steelers and the Titans. Those two games could have given them the safety net they needed against the remaining tough schedule. Those two games are going to come back to haunt them. Amazing how one or two penalties can change the outlook of an entire season.
Come Christmas, it will be "Shoulda, woulda, coulda." Next season, however, seems quite promising. With a good draft, maybe a key pick-up in free agency, and barring any major injuries, the Ravens may get to postseason paydirt in 2009.
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Actually, either of those games would gave been huge.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Limech | November 7, 2008 1:29 PM