Strange but true: Steelers' loss may not be good thing for Ravens
It may sound weird but I’m not so sure that the Indianapolis win over Pittsburgh Sunday was the best thing in the world for the Ravens’ playoff chances.
Before you outfit me for a straight jacket, let’s examine this thing.
OK, granted that in the race for the AFC North championship, the Steelers’ loss is a good thing but the outcome of that Indy-Pittsburgh game makes it a whole lot tougher on the Ravens for a wildcard spot.
Here’s where the Colts stand now. They are 5-4 with one-foot putts left against Houston, Cincinnati and Detroit. Their game in Cleveland is a little tougher (the Brady Quinn factor is still unknown right now) but it’s another likely win. Even if Indianapolis loses testers to underachieving San Diego and Jacksonville, the Colts likely go into Game 16 with nine wins. And who do they draw on the last day? AFC South rival Tennessee. Well, what do you think the chances are that the Titans have playoff home field locked up by then? Pretty good, right? And unless Tennessee is going for 16-0, they will have the second-string out there while the Colts will be fighting for their lives.
So this is beginning to look like an easy 10-6 for the Colts and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ravens. In that scenario, Ravens fans have to hope to beat out competition from the AFC East for the second wildcard.
Of course, there’s the distinct possibility of winning the AFC North outright with the Ravens and Steelers tied at 6-3 and the Dec. 14 rematch at M&T Bank Stadium looming huge. If the two teams keep pace and the Ravens win that crucial game, then the Colts’ win over the Steelers was certainly a good thing for Baltimore.
But hypothetically turning the results around from the Indianapolis-Pittsburgh game yesterday, the Ravens would be in much better shape relative to the Colts for a wildcard and even though they might trail the Steelers by a game going into Dec. 14, they could have drawn even with a victory and still have a shot at the division title. I know … it’s enough to make your head hurt.
While we’re at it, here’s another interesting turn in the schedule. Guess who the Steelers play in Game 15? The Titans. Now, it’s not as probable that the Titans could have the playoff home field locked up and still not be perfect going into that game but it is possible. And if that happens, the Steelers might also be looking at an easier game than under normal circumstances.
Actually, the answer is simple. If the Ravens keep winning, they make the playoffs.


Comments
Always the doom and gloom writters offer something that may or may not happen. I'll give you one, the Ravens win 6 of their last games and the Steelers and Colts win only 3 each. But really, who knows what will happen. Just sit back and enjoy the GAMES we will play. Always the doom and gloomers.
Posted by: OCJOHN | November 10, 2008 3:18 PM
Man you're good with that math stuff...but I honestly think we have a better chance of beating the Steelers for the division lead than we do getting a wildcard spot. One of the wildcards will be the second place team in the AFC East (Jets or Pats). the other will be a toss up between the Colts/Dolphins/Bills (if they stop their slump) and whoever is 2nd place in AFC North. That's a lot of teams to try to win out over. The Steelers have played well banged up, but it's got to wear them down as we move towards December. Our schedule is hard, but lets look at it.
NYG: we probably lose. L
PHI: winnable, but lets say L
CIN: W
WAS: winnable, lets say W
PIT: must win, and at home, W
DAL: Dallas has fallen apart, W
JAX: W
11-5. I think that might do it.
If the Ravens keep playing the way they have the past few games, they should make the playoffs. Even if they don't, hasn't it been a great season? I've been happy.
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Crabs,
Hey friend, 11-5 is a lock to do it. It's a pleasant scenario.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Crabs in FL | November 10, 2008 3:23 PM
This season is not about making the playoffs, and all of this chatter about it has as much potential to undermine the sesaon as it does to inspire it. The simple fact is that a rookie HC and a rookie QB (let alone the youth of the backfield and the offensive line) are all about establishing a new identity. The fact that the Ravens are 6-3 and in control of their fate is a fabulous thing, but this is not what the team needs to focus on at this time. Enjoy the ride, but don't get too down if they fall off the radar a bit. It is similar to the Orioles (FINALLY!) having a plan for the future and moving the "stars" for prospects. When they were staying at or near the top of the division early in the season it was a lot of fun, but 2008 was never about the wins and losses of 2008. The big difference is that in the NFL it is much easier to rebuild quickly and get back into contention compared to baseball and how prospects are developed. Don't put the cart before the horse.
Posted by: Big Daddy (not Lipscomb) | November 10, 2008 3:24 PM
I don't care about playoff scenarios in week 10 - there's still alot of football left to play. That said, any time the Steelers lose its a good thing.
Posted by: Delaware Dan | November 10, 2008 3:40 PM
I think you are overanalysing. You always go for the division win, and for the Ravens that means a Steelers loss is a good thing. If you're thinking wildcard already, with 7 games left to go and the Ravens and Steelers tied for first place you should be writing for a Pittsburgh paper.
Posted by: Roy | November 10, 2008 3:50 PM
Nice piece but your story could have started and ended with with your last sentence. We can't worry what the other teams are going to do until the point we have done all we can do and another teams win or loss will put us in the playoffs. Until then the Ravens just have to take care of their business and hopefully at the end of the regular season the Ravens won't have to depend said other team's win or loss.
Posted by: Golfleagueraven | November 10, 2008 4:51 PM
Thank you for finding the cloud in the silver lining
Posted by: Anonymous | November 10, 2008 5:03 PM
I agree Bill I had no idea who to root against in yesterdays game. Yeah the Ravens have the same record as the Steelers now but we're not tied the Steelers have the lead cause they beat us back in week 4. Now the Colts are back in the wild card mix, if the 6th seed were to come down to us and them, the Colts would get in. Hopefully, it won't come down to that but it could be a concern down the road.
Posted by: Anonymous | November 10, 2008 5:08 PM
I think it's too early to be making these predictions. So much can still happen. You have to always play to win your division (that's what they make those flags for!). Besides, the Colts could easily win all those games for the retiring gipper and be completely out of sight.
Posted by: Anonymous | November 10, 2008 6:33 PM
The Ravens are now tied with the Steelers and remain one game ahead of the Colts for the wild card. This is a good thing. There is no other way to look at it. It is impossible to predict the outcome of any game…that is why Las Vegas builds new billion dollar hotel-casinos every year. You are what you are and we are 6-3 and tied for first….FOR NOW. But, it’s a week-to-week league and things could look totally different in 2 weeks. We could lose the next 2 games and it would then look like we were totally out of the playoff picture (although, in reality, we wouldn’t be).
The Ravens will likely have to beat the Steelers at home in order to make the playoffs…even as a wild card…if only because they will have to take care of business at home like most NFL playoff teams. If we do beat the Steelers at M&T, we will have a real chance of winning the division…which is always where you want to be!!
Both teams have 4 of their final 7 at home. Let’s assume both teams more or less take care of business at home (like you’re supposed to), I think the Steelers’ 3 remaining road games (including the one at M&T) are tougher than ours. If they beat us at M&T, we aren’t going to win the division, but we may still have a good shot at the wild card. If we beat them, I can almost guarantee you that we will make the playoffs and probably win the division.
In any case, if I would have told you in early August that the Ravens season was going to come down to their home game against the Steelers on Week 15, you would have had me committed. Now, because the Colts beat the Steelers we actually have a chance to win the division. In which case maybe the Steelers will be playing golf in January. What could be sweeter than that?
Posted by: Joe | November 10, 2008 7:03 PM
I hear ya' I watched the game and waffled on who to route against harder..can't root for either of them. I figured its always best to try and win your division so ultimately I rooted harder against the Squealers. I had already rooted for both team buses to crash into each other before the game..alas to no avail.. I probably didn't really mean it (or did I) GO RAVENS!
Posted by: JeffB | November 10, 2008 9:04 PM
Bill, you're right on point with this one. I was tortured with the same thought watching that game but my hatred for the Steelers was to great to let rational Wild Card Scenarios enter my thinking.
Posted by: Charles B | November 10, 2008 9:35 PM
"Actually, the answer is simple. If the Ravens keep winning, they make the playoffs."
Exactly Bill, and that's as it should be. This team needs to earn it's way into the playoffs and seeing and hearing Harbaugh speak, I don't think he'd want it any other way.
Posted by: Ed Dorsch | November 11, 2008 12:13 AM
hahaha thank you .
i called in on the anita mark show the other day and said we should root for the steelers. you deff did not wanna see the colts 5-4 now they have the easy schedule and we have the hard one. yes we can win the division but with our schedule looking at a wildcard is more likely. now that the colts are 5-4 we basically have to beat the giants,eagles,and so on and even if we beat the steelers and say we both end the season with the same record steelers will win the division! cuz same record in division but steelers have a better conference record only lost 1, ravens have lost 3 conference games so either way we are screwed and if thats the case the colts will probably have more wins then us and they get the wildcard boom! there goes our season
Posted by: john | November 11, 2008 2:31 AM
Well Bill we will see.
Posted by: Donta | November 11, 2008 2:39 AM
I have ordered your straight jacket Bill. A Steeler loss is never ( never, ever ) a bad thing for the Ravens. Where should I send your jacket. Please advise.
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Joe,
I know how you feel, it's just that the wildcard thing is so tricky with the Colts and I think maybe the Ravens could still take the division. if they trailed the Steelers by a game and won on Dec. 14, And even if not, they would be in better shape for the wildcard.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Joe Mess | November 11, 2008 7:39 AM
your right, we are going to have you fitted for a straight jacket
Posted by: Anonymous | November 11, 2008 1:31 PM
This was by far the DUMBEST postulation I ever read in the Sun.
Pittsburgh losing was a great thing. The Ravens control their destiny. Secondly, following your logic, if Indy lost to the steelers and then went on to run the table, in your scenario, the Ravens lose AFC north behind the Steelers and the wildcard spot to the Colts.
Hey, let's just take this one game at a time an enjoy this unexpected season of GREAT football.
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Pastor,
Thanks for writing and you are certainly entitled to your opinion. As I said at the outset, there is a great deal of conjecture in all this and I won't go through my thinking on it again but as you crunch this thing, I believe there is an argument for that outcome being more beneficial to the Ravens had it been the reverse. We can agree on this ... we have a much more enjoyable season for Ravens fans than it appeared back in August.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Pastor | November 12, 2008 6:15 PM