I like the Ravens' chances against the Colts this week for what may appear to be an odd reason.  Despite some worrisome circumstances on the Baltimore side -- special teams problems with returns and field goals, starting a rookie QB, not much of a deep-passing game so far, some injuries in the secondary -- the general feeling among people who follow the game closely, the betting public, clearly is that the Ravens are much improved team.

The wagering line on this game has moved pretty significantly, from the Colts being 7-point favorites down to 4-point favorites.  That's the biggest move of any game this week.

What has gotten the attention of folks who follow such things is that the Ravens are 3-1 against the spread this year.  Now in at least one case, they beat the spread but lost the game -- against Pittsburgh. But they have also won two games outright where they were point-spread underdogs. On the other side of this equation, the Colts are 1-2-1 against the spread and are just three points away from being 0-4.

OK, there is an obvious point here.  The Ravens have been better than people expected after a miserable 2007 and the Colts are off to a sluggish start that hardly anyone anticipated.  But I'm a semi-believer in the notion that performance against the spread does tell something about where a team actually is as opposed to what a popular perception has been.  Let's face it, it is difficult to get the image of Peyton Manning's 311 touchdown passes out of one's mind and the glittering offensive names are still on that roster -- Harrison, Wayne, Clark, Addai.  So the perception that these Colts are still dangerous is hard to dismiss.

But performance against the spread is a litmus test for comparing reality to perception.

Last year when the Ravens started 4-2, they also happened to be 1-5 against the spread.  I wrote that despite the winning record, it did not bode well because it indicated that even in games that Baltimore won, the Ravens were under-performing (they failed to cover in four games in which they were favorites). Of course, football people would simply shrug their shoulders and say a win is a win and some folks thought I was dwelling on the betting aspect of the paradoxical statistic.  I wasn't.  My concern was that once the Ravens started playing opponents against whom they were point-spread underdogs, that their flaws would be exposed. Of course, they went on a nine-game losing streak.

Although it is early, this year's point spread trending may tell us something completely different about the Ravens.  Of course, it won't make Ravens players and fans happy if they lose this game by a field goal, thus beating the spread but dropping to 2-3 in the real standings. But if the spread and performance against it is a barometer, the rising performance of the Ravens in contrast to the downward trend of the Colts is an encouraging sign for Baltimore winning this game outright.