The problem the Orioles face with their rebuilding efforts is that we will likely create holes by filling others. As you noted with Roberts, who plays 2nd if we trade him for let's say, a power bat and/or pitcher?
That's why I'd shy away from trading Huff and Sherrill. Both guys are in their 30's but nothing wrong with keeping these guys around for the contending days (hopefully in 1-2 years). We are short of power-hitters and if Huff keeps hitting, we have someone better than we can get elsewhere. Sherrill may be slipping lately but he's still done a great job overall and if he's traded, we don't even have a lefty in the 'pen.(I'm not counting Castillo and Walker will likely get dealt as soon as he's off the DL).
We should move Millar, Payton, Bradford & Mora as they don't really fit into a long range plan but we aren't likely to receive much in return, at least not players that are going to have a major impact. Shedding these guys is more 'addition by subtraction' in that it frees up roster space and some salary(although we may have to eat some $$$ just to get teams to take them off our hands).
In a rebuild, it's probably best to fill the holes through the farm system(a novel concept!) but we just recently appear to be developing the Wieters/Reinhols/Rowells. So we have to face reality and either plunge back into the free agent pool or try to pull off some trades. There is risk in these approaches as free agents often tank and not knowing other teams prospects is often a crapshoot. It's also better to trade from your strength/surplus but do we really have such areas right now?
In summary, rebuilding is a tough job!!!
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Terry,
You about said it all. You make an excellent point on Huff. I mention him only because power hitting is something more easily replacable in free agency but everything you say is spot on.
-- Bill O.

Bill- going back to your opening--- I don't think anyone at any time thinks this current roster will be a contender. Ever. They are competetive, play hard and are very interesting, but not contenders. I think a fire sale is forthcoming. The tough job is keeping the team interesting enough to keep the fickle fans of your and Roch's blogs happy too. I think you have to keep Jones,Roberts,Cabrera and Guthrie even they are the only real return getters. Every one else is expendable, although most of the bullpen is pretty good as well as Huff. Should be interesting to see how Andy Mc. handles it. Let the fun begin.
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Jim,
You know, you mention keeping the fans engage. That cannot be dismissed. We've seen what's happened to fan involvement in what had been one of the best baseball markets in the country. It's a tough balancing act.
-- Bill O.

to bill ordine: what makes you think loewen is a number 3 starter based on his track record
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That was really kind of the point when I was discussing the possibility of trading Cabrera. If you start talking about the Orioles' roration in 2009 and '10, Loewen's name immediately comes up but right now, it's hard to see him being durable enough to take the ball 25 to 30 season as a starter under any circumstances.
-- Bill O.

I've been perfectly balanced on the "Trade Brian Roberts?" fence for months, but I've climbed off in the last few days, and I'm standing in the "no" yard. I completely agree with you regarding the hole it would leave in the infield, and complicating it even more is the hole it would leave in the lineup. I don't think there's anybody on this team or in the minors that would be able to do half the job Roberts does leading off. He has a great eye, a great swing, and (sometimes most helpful) a great reputation as a hitter. To be worthwhile, I really believe the trade would have to net the O's a return that's at worst a step below what they got for Bedard and Tejada (even though Roberts is as valuable as either of them). The likelihood of that happening appears to have declined significantly.
As futile as it may be if Roberts doesn't want to sign here, it's worth a try on the part of the Orioles to offer him a new contract. It's true he's not going to get any faster nor his defense better in the next four or five years, but Roberts is already above average in both categories. I think you can count on his durability as well; after all, this is the same guy whose forearm was practically ripped off a few years ago, and he's barely missed a beat since.
I am all for rebuilding. It has to happen. But I think it's a good idea for the O's to focus on the other players you listed.
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Mark,
We're in agreement on Roberts. If The Orioles had a clear-cut resolution at shortstiop, I would be more inclined to trade Roberts. But you bring up a point that I was thinking about but did not write ... lead-off. Where's the lead-off guy. Maybe it's a little less important in AL .. I've head that argument ... but a good No. 1 makes so much happen. Yes, he won't get anjy faster but maybe he gets a little more smarter ... not that he isn't already a student of the game .. and that helps both his baserunning and his defense. We all know he's that kind of player. This might be an occasion where Angelos' influence might serve the team well if he insists on resigning Roberts.
-- Bill O.

You've summed it up exactly how I see it. Trading Guthrie, Cabrera, and/or Roberts just opens up too big of holes on the roster. While the pitching has been thin recently, Walker and/or Bradford are only middle relievers and O's seem to have plenty of those types of pitchers here and in the minors.

Sign the petition!
http://bringmarkhome.withthispetition.com

Hey Bill -

Not to be argumentative here, but I think the #1 prospect to peddle is reliever George Sherrill. Teams are always interested in lefty relievers -- and when the one you have to offer is an All-Star whose effort in that game drew gushing comments from the manager of the AL? Then I think you can get a couple of prospects for him.

All the best,

patrick
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Patrick,
You're not being argumentative. You make a solid point. If the price were right, no one is an untouchable on this roster with the exception of Guthrie, Markakis and possibly Jones.
-- Bill O.,

Three other considerations are:
Is the player likely to be productive by the time the Orioles will be competitive?
Is he likely at his peak value?
Given that the Orioles have built up some goodwill by their surprising performance in the first half, how likely is the team to squander that goodwill by trading away currently productive players if it means a decline in the team's quality of play?
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You know, we're dealing with an equation here where the value of the variables change constantly. It's my feeling right now that given what they have and what they can reasonably expect in return that the moves will be more surgical than wholesale. If they have to make big moves ... and they probably will ... I believe it'll happen as it did with Tejada and Bedard, meaning the off-season.
-- Bill O.

Everyone seems to overlook Louis Montanez of the Baysox. He is currently hitting .311 with 20 bombs, this is following up a .339 avg in 07 with Bowie in 121 AB's. He definatley has the credentials considering he was the 3rd overall pick in the 2000 draft. He is still only 26, if a vet is sent in a trade, why not start his service time and see what he can do! This will save the time on Reimold for another year.
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Gary,
Thanks for bringing up his name. This has definitely been his break-out season. It certainly would be nice if he were a middle-infielder but I suppose we'll see him in September.
-- Bill O.

I really like Loewen. But, will he ever be healthy? Seems to be one thing after another. The thing with Roberts, everybody wants him, but not willing to part with the right components to make it worth dealing him. We have several younger players with large up side. But, there is so many holes, and current guys like Mora are only going to get older and less productive.
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Capt.,
As I mentioned earlier, I think any immediate personnel moves will be more surgical in nature with bigger deals made in the off-season.
-- Bill O.

A question that first needs to be answered is when do the O's think they can realistically be contenders? If the honest assessment is 4-5 years, it would make sense to trade Roberts & Sherrill as they will be well into the usual decline stages of their careers. And under that idea, you're not going to contend soon, so the downside of the huge hole up the middle may be dwarfed by the return you get, since you have a few years to fill that hole.

On the other hand if the O's think they're going to contend in the next 2 years, you probably want to keep Roberts & Sherrill, unless you're overwhelmed and you get reasonable replacements in return.

The O's do need to consider the fans but that has actually hurt both the organization and the fans over the last 10 years. Signing overpriced, mediocre free agents to try to be competitive has not worked and fans became frustrated with this approach a long time ago.
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Darren,
I think the more realistic horizon is 2 to 3 years. I think will be real urgency in 2010.
-- Bill O.

With the loss of the Dodgers closer there will never be a better time to move George Sherill for a shortstop of the future. Trade him for Ivan Dejesus,jr. Then get Markakis and Adam Jones signed long term as Tampa Bay has done with their young stars. Those three things will make this season a success for me, no matter what the record in the last 70 games. We have plenty of young pitchers that have taken major steps forward at every level of the organization and we should all be far more optimistic than at this time last year.