Tips on filling out that March Madness bracket
R.J. Bell, a sports gambling information guy who has a website (pregame.com), sends along these tips for filling out your March Madness bracket based on statistics mostly covering the last 23 years or so.
We'll distill some of the rules.
* Don't be tempted to go with bottom seeds. No. 16 and No. 15 seeds are a combined 4-180 in the last 23 years. No. 14 and No. 13 seeds are a little better but not much, just under an 18 percent win rate.
* No. 12 through No. 10 seeds are much more likely to go from underdogs to upset hounds. For instance, No. 12 seeds are 11-17 against No. 5 seeds in the last seven years. In the second round, No. 12 and No. 10 seeds have surprisingly strong records, winning nearly half the time.
* On No. 1 seeds: They win their first two games 87 percent of the time. The percentages say three No. 1 seeds will go to the Elite Eight. And the probability is that one or two No. 1 seeds will go to the Final Four.
* Looking at the Elite Eight: Avoid teams lower than a No. 11 seed. Considering the Final Four: The odds of a team lower than a No. 8 seed making it to the Final Four are infinitesimal (only two of the last 92 Final Four teams have been lower than a No. 8). As far as the championship game is concerned: The advice is to pencil in no team lower than a No. 6 (in the last 22 years no team lower than a No. 6 has made the championship game).
Disclaimer: This stuff all comes from R.J. Bell. The management of this blog accepts no responsibility for your office bracket..
Comments
Could you imagine though, the higher seed or highest for that matter pulls of the big upset, and then that seed continues on and wins the whole thing? Stats say it will never happen, but wouldn't that be great if a team like MSM could do something like that? I guess that's why we pine next to our television sets, or set up vasectomy's during this time of the year.
Posted by: Joe | March 17, 2008 3:02 PM
If you like to pick the winners versus the spread, the 7 seeds are 12-4 against the 10 seeds in the past four years.
Posted by: Discount Home Gyms | March 17, 2008 7:03 PM
Can You email me your bracket?
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Ravi,
Haven't filled one out yet.
-- Bill O
Posted by: Ravi | March 18, 2008 8:43 AM
This is good info! This year is the first year I've done the brackets. I've picked USC and UCLA. Haven't decided who will take it home yet!!
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Sarah,
Good luck ... I'm leaning toward UCLA. But don't let that sway you. I once had a French bulldog who picked better brackets than me.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Sarah B. | March 18, 2008 7:57 PM
I like the Hoyas, they don't have the best selection placement and that does not help. I like JT Jr. He seems to be in tune with his players and understands the X and Os as well as anybody out there.
Everybody is talking USC, UCLA, Memphis, NC. But, you dont ever count a Coach K team out, even against superior teams on paper.
Posted by: Captain Jack | March 19, 2008 3:23 PM