Pressure turned up on Maryland
This is what I was talking about a week or so ago when I mentioned that Maryland's margin of error for making the NCAA tournament was thin.
Last night, not only did Maryland squander its sole grip on third place in the ACC and suffer its fifth conference loss when it allowed Virginia Tech to come from behind by 14 points on the Terps' home court, but Miami stunned Duke. The Hurricanes, who should have been out of the picture, now can legitimately believe, as ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi put it, that they are "in the conversation."
With last year's once-in-several-generations victory over Duke, Miami has now won three in a row (by a grand total of five points) and revived its own ACC record to 5-6 (18-7 overall). And guess who Maryland plays next? Yep, the Hurricanes at Miami -- just when Miami is gaining confidence and Maryland (17-10, 7-5 ACC) is still numb from a performance of which guard Greivis Vasquez said, "Who can believe this?"
As anyone who saw the game or looks at the box score can see, the problem was that Maryland got zero points from its bench. In fact, other than Vasquez and Bambale Osby, Maryland didn't get much from anyone, but the bench's no-show in 36 minutes was glaring.
It's now down to four games on Maryland's regular-season schedule, including a game at Wake Forest and another at home against Clemson. Both currently have five ACC losses, just like Maryland, and are as much in the tournament hunt as the Terps. The two other Maryland games, this upcoming one at Miami on Saturday and against last-place Virginia, are on the road.
A final record with 20 wins and 10-6 in the ACC may still be fine for Maryland come Selection Sunday, although I'd still like to see one win in the conference tournament. But make no mistake, the next three games are going to be a fight for survival for everyone involved.
Comments
Losing last night doesn't change the goal of 10-6 in the conference. It just makes things a little bit harder than any MD fan, coach or player would have liked.
In fact, losing last night makes getting to 10-6 even more of a LOCK, should MD be able to get there. 10-6 would mean at least 2 additional road wins, at least 1 win against a team in the top 30 of the RPI, and would mean winning 3 of the final 4 before the ACC Tournament.
Losing last night allowed the rest of the conference to inch a little bit closer, but MD still controls their destiny because their next 3 games are against teams nipping at their heels.
Look for Miami to potentially come out flat Saturday afternoon for an early tipoff after their big win last night. The Miami win isn't a MUST WIN, but its very, very close.
--------------------------------------------------
Greg,
The good thing here is that it would seem just about impossible for both Clemson and Wake to finish with five losses ... the Deacons have to play Carolina next. You're right in that the Terps control this thing. If they deserve it, they'll be there.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Greg | February 21, 2008 9:46 AM
Back to one game at a time...
TV guys talked about Greenburg did not allow his players to watch the tape of the UNC game... just forget and move on...
Thats all MD can do with this game.
Miami has now won 3 straight ACC games... crowd will be very excited, MD has struggled there in years past.
Miami is an extremely good 3pt shooting team, and is getting regular scoring contributions from about 8 players.
MD went into last night as a consensus 9 seed... appearing on 42 out of the 42 major brackets...
Last night did not knock out of the NCAAT, but certainly made things a lot harder… RPI dipped to 61….
Still the ACC is the top ranked RPI conference, and has the most wins head to head vs any of the big 6 conferences.
(Note, Ohio and VCU are both Top 65 RPI, so those losses are not killing MD…. American is ranked 108, in comparison UVA is 124)
Miami
18-7 , 5-6
Best wins
@VCU, Providence, Morgan St, @MissSt, Penn, GaTech, Clemson, @VaTech, @GaTech, Duke
Worst loss
Winthrop
McClinton 16.2ppg 43.4% from 3 89.9% from FT
Dews 10.8ppg 39.5% from 3 87.5% from FT
Asbury 9.3ppg 39.6% from 3 85.1% from FT
Collins 8.8ppg 6.3 boards
If MD wins 3 of 4, and even one and done, they are a 100% lock.
If they go 2 and 2, and one and done… they will be very very borderline.
If they go 2 and 2, and win one in the ACCT, they probably get in.
@Miami - Going to be a war.. Miami has won 3 ACC games in a row, great 3pt shooting team... if we pound our bigs, we should win though. W
@ Wake - Johnson is a beast, extremely quick guards... very tough at home... L
Clemson - Tough, physical team... Purnell is a good coach... I think we find a way to win at home. W
@UVA - Singletary's senior game... they probably play with some pride that day, but MD has more to play for... W
We entered last night a consensus 9 seed, appearing on 42 of the 42 major brackets.
Take a closer look at how we compare with
Projected 9 seeds:
Mississippi State, RPI 46, 8-3 SEC
Oklahoma, RPI 30, 6-5 Big 12
Rhode Island, RPI 31, 6-5 Atlantic 10
Projected 10 seeds:
West VA, RPI 39, 7-6 Big East
Baylor, RPI 42, 5-6 Big 12
Arizona State, RPI 75, 6-6 Pac 10
Ohio State, RPI 47, 8-5 Big 10
Projected 11 seeds:
UNLV, RPI 33, 8-3 MtWest
Dayton, RPI 23, 5-6 Atlantic 10
Syracuse, RPI 48, 7-7 Big East
Oregon, RPI 50, 6-7 Pac 10
Projected 12 seeds:
St.Joesph's, RPI 55, 7-4 Atlantic 10
South Alabama, RPI 37, 13-2 Sun Belt
Kent State, RPI 42, 11-2 Mid American
Western Kentucky, RPI 45, 13-1 Sun Belt
Projected Bubble Last Four Out:
Florida, RPI 58, 5-7 SEC
Wake Forest, RPI 63, 6-5 ACC
Miami, RPI 28, 5-6 ACC
Houston, RPI 49, CUSA 8-3
Next Four Out:
UMASS, RPI 41, 5-6 Atlantic 10
Mississippi, RPI 43, 4-7 SEC
California, RPI 76, 6-7 Pac 10
Illinois State, RPI 52, 11-5 MVC
http://bracketproject.atspace.com/comparison.htm
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html
When I get a chance, I'll do some more HW….. And will
1) Show their conf rpi's, which I have linked above…
2) Records last 10 games
3) Best win
4) Worst loss
5) SOS
Basically, there are 23 teams mentioned there….MD has to be one of the 16 best… entering last night, we were regarded among 42 brackets as one of the 4 best.
-----------------------------------------------------
Chris,
Thanks for the great info. As you say, 3-1 makes life a lot easier.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Chris | February 21, 2008 10:17 AM
Everyone is going to lose games between now and the end, that is just ACC basketball.
Realistically, MD needs to win one of the next 2. That gets them to Gist and Osby's senior night with a chance at the 9th win.
UVA is the worst team in the league, but it is never easy in Charlottesville for the Terps and it is senior night for Sean Singletary.
Posted by: Greg | February 21, 2008 10:37 AM
It won't matter that Maryland gets to the tournament or not. They won't get past the second round anyway. James Gist is the same player he was when he came to Maryland. He is unproven and unreliable. How can a player with the potential that he has continue to be a non factor in must win games? This seems to be a trend in the players who come to the program. Maryland needs to get better players or the Athletic Department needs to look at the coach and start asking questions. Eric Hayes is another question mark. He obviously doesn't have the skills to compete in the ACC. He is over matched.
Posted by: jimmy ragler | February 21, 2008 11:50 AM
Yeah I agree last nights loss was troubling, the Terps will have to win three out of their last four to secure a tourney bid. That's not easy either consdering they have to face Miami, Clemson and even Wake Forest is a threat. UVA is the only game I am real certain they will win, I still have faith that they can make the tourney but they've made it even harder on themselves by losing last night.
Not to mention Gist has been a non-factor the past two games after that monstrous game against NC State. He needs to start showing up again for these last games or the Terps won't make it. Hayes has been a non-factor as well, he's not shooting three's with ease like he did earlier so were not getting much from the best outside shooter on the team, which hurts.
--------------------------------------------------
Marcus,
You are correct, especially about Gist. Unless they get it together, they may not get to the round of 32 even if they do make it.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Marcus | February 21, 2008 5:10 PM