Yeah, so ummm....MD jumped up to 56 after their win last night. Keep working on that whole researching thing.

Also, MD is 9-2 in their past 11 (hot teams are another thing the selection committee looks at) and are 5-3, good enough for 3rd place in the ACC. MD needs to pick up 5 more wins and their a lock for the tournament. That means they do have some room for error, unlike a Miami, who has a high RPI, but is 2-5 in the conference.

Listen to actual basketball analysts, like Jay Bilas, and they will tell you the RPI is outdated.
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Josh,
Thanks for the update on the RPI rankings ... where did you see that because the CBSSportsline rankings still had them tied at 65 after the B.C. game. The Pomery was before. I won't debate the merits of the RPI ... the most important point is this ... is it relevenat to the selection committee. I don't agree with the five wins entirely. That's 10-6, which is decent but maybe not be good enough for third place. They still need one or two wins in the tournament, I think, to be safe.
-- Bill O.

Kind of make you wonder what the Terps' RPI would look like if they hadn't lost to American and Ohio, doesn't it?
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Exactly.
-- Bill O.

I want to congratulate Gary as well. He is not the greatest recruiter but he is one of the best when it comes to molding talent. I think these guys will be great next year. On another note, the RPI is almost as awful as the BCS. I have always wondered how it makes sense to allow no nmae teams in as 14-16 seeds and hold the middle of the pack teams out. Often there are teams like Maryland who can compete with any team in the country held out of the tournament and Essex community college is the 16 seeed. What a waste of talent. The fact that they are third in the toughest conference with a win over the #1 team and still ranked 65 in the ocuntry makes no sense. Well, I don't see any change on the horizon. Bill you are correct, with the current system, MD cant afford to lose. Good luck to the turles!
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Chris,
I think they can lose two, maybe even three but they need to have a decent tournament as well if they go 5-3 in the regular season.
-- Bill O.

Bill,

Keep in mind that those RPIs don't include the BC win yet. Realtime RPI jumped MD to 57 after the win, and once Pomeroy updates, there will be a similar jump.

3 of the next 4 games are at home. The Terps are a lock if they get to 10-6 in conference, so if they match their ACC first half (5-3) down the stretch, they'll be in good shape.Considering where they were a month and a half ago, I think thats a pretty decent margin for error.
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Greg,
I think any disagreement we have is a narrow one. Certainly, 6-2 is a lock. With 5-3, I think they have to win a game, maybe two in the tournament, which they should do. I would argue that if you count Duke as a loss, then that means going 6-1 ... by my count ... or 5-2 by your own. If they were to lose to NC State and Duke, they would be sweating it out for the rest of the year.
-- Bill O.

Real time RPI has them up to 57 and rising fast. If they go 4-4 the rest of the way and have a win in the ACC tourney, their RPI will be ok and they will make the tourney. If they go 5-3 they are a lock with 21 wins and American and Ohio a distant memory.

I disagree with the recruiter statement. To bring in the talent that he has over the years, should be recognized. Remember he came here, the program was in shambles and nobody wanted to play here. Maryland is not Duke, NC or Kentucky. It doesnt have the babes and beaches of California and Florida. So it cant recruit based on name alone, like some schools do.

According to RealTime RPI, MD is currently 57th, and the ACC is the top-rated Conference in RPI.

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

A number of polls had MD in the NCAAT prior to last nights win at BC...

http://bracketproject.atspace.com/comparison.htm

MD is 3rd in the ACC, have won 9 of 11... including 1 point loss at VaTech without Hayes, and the loss at home to Duke.

2/9 - NCST W
2/13 - @Duke L
2/16 - FSU W
2/20 - VaTech W
2/23 - @Miami L
2/28 - @Wake Forest W
3/2 - Clemson W
3/9 - @UVA W

= 11-5 ACC play prior to ACCT

= 21 & 10 overall prior to ACCT...

MD is playing for seeding, not entry to the dance.
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Chris,
I hope for the sake of Terp fans, you have this figured correctly but you're also counting a lot of unhatched chickens. I think they'll make the tournament, too, but I wouldn't be too smug and overconfident about it.
-- Bill O.

Bill,

I think you are being naive if you think a 10-6 ACC team (5-3 the rest of the way) doesn't make the NCAA Tournament. Early season losses or not, the committee will acknowledge the vast improvement, the signature win over UNC, and the 3rd or 4th (at worst) place finish in the conference. There is absolutely no chance of being left out at 10-6.
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Greg,
Just a hypothetical. Do you think 10-6 and one-and-done in the ACC still gets you in the dance. Or do you need at least one win.
-- Bill O.

Bill,
Appreciate the response… I had MD finishing 24-7, 11-5 back in August and told Heather Dinich as much..
Is MD a NCAAT yet…. No, they are not.. I totally agree with continuing to take one game at a time, improving week to week.

I thought at this point of the season, even with as young as we are with 6 freshman, and 3 starting soph's that we would be 17-5... so I will not lie to you and say I am ecstatic about being 15-8.

However, I did realize that it was going to take awhile for this team to click.. and did think that it might take until the 2nd half of ACC play to see us playing our best basketball... But always felt at some point this year, we would be a force.

I feel really good about what this team can accomplish this year... and I feel even better about the next couple of seasons.

Watching a team develop, through hard-work and perserving through difficult times is very rewarding....

You asked Greg if a 10-6 one and done in the ACC gets you to the dance… I believe FSU is the only ACC team to finish at least 9-7, and not get to the NCAA's… is this correct?
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Chris,
I have no idea ... I have some folks I want to talk to tomorrow about the topic.
-- Bill O.

Historically, how many 10-6 teams from the ACC have ever been left out of the dance? One? Maybe two? 10-6 is a lock. 9-7 and you must win at least one game in the ACC tourney.

I think there is more margin for error than appears. At 9-7 with an ACC win or 10-6, it would be difficult to leave MD out of it.

MD needs to go 5-3 in the last half of the schedule, or 4-4 and win an ACC tourney game or two and they should be in.

The RPI thing will take care of itself if MD just wins enough games to get to 10-6.

I was looking over the ACC rosters and if I'm reading them right, Maryland is the youngest team with 8 freshmen...is that right?

If so, Williams should be given kudos for being in 3rd place right now
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Barry,
Yes, the Terps are quite young. I haven't compared the rosters but it wouldn't surprise me. It bodes well for the next few seasons.
-- Bill O.

The Terps are burdened and will remain burdened by the losses to American and Ohio. They were huge! Do I think it is impossible for them to make the dance....no, not impossible. I also don't think it is impossible for them to be 9 - 7 in the ACC or maybe even 10 - 6 and not get a bid either. Again, those early losses at home to what should have been practice squads just ain't gonna go away. I too think they are on a tight-rope right now and don't see em' getting off any time soon without falling off hard.

Bill,

I DO think that 10-6, one and done in the ACC Tournament gets it done. Let me lay out a few reasons.

First, 10-6 almost assuredly would give MD a top 4 seed in the ACCT, meaning that loss would come in the quarterfinals, not the first round and a likely lesser opponent.

Second, despite fan perception, the only truly BAD loss MD has on its resume is AU (RPI=137). VCU (RPI=59) and Ohio (RPI=62) both are decent teams with NCAA hopes of their own. While the average fan sees those losses as on the level of AU, the committee will see them differently.

Lastly, I would point towards last year's Virginia Tech squad as a good comparison. They lost games early in the season to Western Michigan and Marshall (both worse RPI losses than any MD has this season), but by season's end, at 10-6 in the ACC, the only talk was about seeding for the NCAAT, not bubble talk. VT made it in as a 5 seed.
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Greg,
Thanks for writing and the contribution. That's a good comparison with Virginia Tech and to continue with that, I see that the Hokies won one game in the ACCT against Wake and then lost to NCS but it seems clear that they would have gotten the bid anyway because that was a real good seed. Interestingly, they were eliminated at the dance in the second round in their second loss of the year to Southern Illinois. Is that weird or what.
-- Bill O.

Historical ACC records don't mean all that much now that the ACC sees unbalanced scheduling. 10-6 when you play H&A against every other team is a lot different than the current setup.

10-6 in the league is a stone cold lock for making the dance, even with a one-and-done in the conference tournament.
I think Maryland could probably get in with 9-7, plus one and done in the conference tournament.
They are a hot team, they have a marquee win, it's just a no brainer...and this is coming from an NC State fan. Right now I have five bids for the league with Duke, UNC, Clemson, Maryland, and NC State making it in that order.
If Maryland can beat Clemson at home, they would probably jump over Clemson barring any bad losses. Based on how the schedule is set up, I think Maryland is the most comfortable team in terms of Bubble Watch in the league. Clemson has five road games left, NC State has to play the top four teams in the league left, and everyone else has RPI issues.

The young squad will do well for the future. If they stay here and dont bolt ... early.