Picking against the spread
You would think that when you got to this point in the season, with theoretically the eight best teams in the NFL playing against each other, that these would be considered fairly even matchups.
Think again, at least as far as the point spread is concerned. The lines on all four divisional playoff games are set at more than a touchdown difference -- with the home teams the favorites, naturally, since they're also the higher seed.
The closest one is Giants-Cowboys, where Dallas is a consensus 7 1/2-point favorite.
Seahawks-Packers is similar. Generally, Green Bay is a 7 1/2-point favorite online, but some Vegas books have the Pack as an 8-point favorite (believe it or not, the public money has been coming in on Seattle because one online book started this at Green Bay minus-9, so go figure).
New England is a 13-, 13 1/2-point favorite over Jacksonville but I saw online that one Vegas casino has an 11-point line. If you can actually get that, you'd have a pretty nice "middle" going. A middle is a low-risk move where you take the favorite with the low spread and the underdog with the bigger spread and hope to win on both if the actual score falls in the middle. In such a theoretical situation, the bettor loses only the vigorish, the commission on one bet, if the final score falls outside the parameters of the middle. If the final score falls right on one of the outside numbers (a "side"), one pick is a push and the other is a win -- also a good thing. But it's all predicated on actually being able to make both picks.
Moving on ...
Indianapolis is a consensus 9-point favorite over San Diego.
Last week, we whiffed on both picks. We had Washington, getting a few points, and Tampa Bay, giving a few. I thought the Redskins were going to pull it off when they had that one-point lead in the fourth quarter and recovered the kickoff deep in Seattle territory, but no dice. The season record stands at 28-24-2.
Jacksonville at New England (-13 1/2). Are the Patriots going to go 19-0 and win the Super Bowl? I'd be nuts to say I didn't think so. Vegas has them the most prohibitive favorites since the British invaded the Falklands. But can they cover nearly a two-touchdown spread against a Jaguars team that just doesn't get blown out. After an impressive start to the season against the spread (eight straight wins), New England has failed to cover in five of its last six games. Near the end of the season, Jacksonville covered seven in a row and failed to cover the last two (last week against Pittsburgh by a half-point). The Jaguars will be impossible to run against, so the Patriots will be throwing the ball even more than usual. The Jaguars will counter with the obvious, a ball-control attack that's meant to keep Tom Brady on the sidelines Pick: Jaguars, getting 13 1/2.
New York Giants at Dallas (-7 1/2). I thought the Giants would have a letdown last week against Tampa Bay because of their emotional losing effort against the Patriots in the final game of the regular season. I was wrong. Eli Manning had his second straight solid game, something few people thought he had in him. The Giants seem loose and confident, and they appear to be a team with momentum on its side. Plus, there's that old thing about having to beat the same team three times in the same season (Dallas has beaten New York twice). But Eli putting together three straight solid games? On the Dallas side, Terrell Owens, as expected, is nursing himself back into playing condition (high ankle sprain). Tony Romo should be refreshed and relaxed after that little jaunt to Mexico with Jessica Simpson and some of his teammates. Terry Glenn is supposed to be back. But the Cowboys haven't covered in a month. I may hate myself for this. Pick: Cowboys, giving 7 1/2.

