Picking against the spread
The last week of the NFL regular season is pretty much a waste of time as far as picking against the line.
For one thing, so many games mean so very little. For another, it's hard to tell who will play and how much. Playoff teams will probably rest their starters and who knows how the backups will play. The teams that are going home will give some reps to the second-stringers to help with offseason evaluations. It's like trying to predict exhibition games.
The unusual circumstances make for some curious lines. For instance, the Redskins, who need their game against Dallas to make the playoffs, are 9-point favorites over the Cowboys, who have already clinched the NFC home-field advantage. If these two teams play down the road, that line will probably be reversed. So with our record at 27-21-2, here's the end of the regular-season selections.
New England at New York Giants (14) -- The Giants are 13 1/2, 14-point underdogs to the Patriots in tomorrow's historic game at the Meadowlands. I have a feeling that New York is going to make a stand, at least in the first half. But if the Patriots get up by more than two touchdowns, I think that'll take the fight out of the Giants and they'll start playing this game with their own playoffs in mind. So I'm going to approach this as if I were in Vegas and had an opportunity to pick against the first-half line. It's now at 10 at a few sports books. If I had to make a pick, that's the one. Pick: Giants, first half, getting 10.
Cowboys at Redskins (-9, 38 1/2 over-under) -- Obviously, I like the Redskins here. Who doesn't? But nine is a big number, even if the Cowboys don't play or pull Tony Romo. And, of course, Terrell Owens is hurt. I think Washington needs this one too much, though, to play it too close to the vest so I believe we'll see a reasonable amount of scoring. Pick: The over, 38 1/2.

