Fast forwarding to Ravens' draft
Let’s do a little forward looking here.
Let’s assume the Ravens beat the Dolphins next week. You can figure for yourself whether they can beat either Seattle or Pittsburgh in Games 15 and 16. The track record says they finish 5-11.
So, where does that put them in the draft for the first round. Short answer, somewhere between seventh and 12th, depending on about a bazillion variables. I figure the following teams will finish with fewer than five wins: Dolphins, 49ers, Rams, Falcons, Jets, Raiders. Teams that I figure could finish with five wins (either because I think they’ll win one more or are capable of losing their last three): Eagles, Bears, Panthers, Bengals, Chiefs and, of course, the Ravens. The Saints have only five wins but they play the Falcons tonight.
And when you start ruminating about the draft, if you want to get ill, consider that New England has San Francisco’s pick, which could be the No. 2 player overall.
But moving right along …
I’ve seen some mock drafts that have the Ravens taking a quarterback in the range where they’ll be picking (Kentucky’s Andre Woodson is the name that keeps popping up), but the best cornerback should be on the board.
Considering how much trouble the Ravens have had on defense when their top corners were hurt this season, taking the top guy at that position is definitely the way they could go. Or they might select a linebacker since the top guy could be there, too (unpopular as that might be among fans).
I’ll wager we’ll be hearing about South Florida corner Mike Jenkins, Ohio State corner Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis and Penn State linebacker Dan Connor in the weeks and months ahead. Note: The two Buckeyes are juniors.
Having said that, let’s make sure we all understand this kind of talk is waaay premature.
But can you blame me after last night?


Comments
This draft is deep in QBs - and QBs don't come NFL ready. Corners and linebackers do. Take the best corner you can - or an MLB - and look for a QB in round 2. Will Colt Brennan last that long? Will Isaac Cotton be around?
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Adam,
I'm going way out on a limb talking about draft prospects at this stage and I reserve the right to change my mind about any of this. Yeah, I think Brennan will be around that long, that sidearm delivery is going to be talked about a lot and probably drop him in the draft. And by the time the Ravens pick, two QBs could already be chosen. That's what prompted to speculate as I did about CB and LB.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Adam Zerhouni | December 10, 2007 9:18 AM
If you can get Laurinaitis - you run, do not walk to the podium. My guess is he's gone. I agree, we need a corner, but the issue with the tops ones are that they're tweeners - safety/corners; and I don't think any are lock-down man to man guys. That's not good as we like to press and need them to man-up when we blitz. I say take the best guy available - we're a few years away anyway. Look for a QB in the 2nd round.
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Mark,
Ypu've done more considering of the topic than I have at this point. Let the discussions begin but don't get too wound up, it's a long way to April.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Mark | December 10, 2007 10:25 AM
troy smith needs more time before you guys draft a qb. not getting him more experience this year was a bad coaching move among many.
Posted by: sam | December 10, 2007 10:40 AM
Do you think with their first draft pick, the Ravens can package it and their second round pick and trade it to the Patriots for their Offensive Coordinator?
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Gary,
See, I open the discussion in a nice, reasonable way and you make me laugh so that the coffee goes up my nose.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Gary (Olney) | December 10, 2007 10:54 AM
QB 1st Round, Corner 2nd round, LB 3rd round. They have an obvious need for a QB, they will have alot of cap space to pick up a free agent Corner & O-lineman due to the fact McNair should be cut & Ogden will retire this year. Maybe Ray too(hopefully not, he is the best player on that team!)
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Corey,
I'm no capologist but remember that bonus money doesn't go away because the player is gone but generally, base salary does. You make a valid point about how free agency will influence all of this.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Corey | December 10, 2007 11:44 AM
Do what you have to do to get Matt Ryan. Look at the elite teams. Look at the qb play. There is a trend in football leaning towards offense. Name the corners on Indy. Steelers don't have great corners, Pats have one, Dallas's has been injured for most of the season. Pressure and schemes make corner play effective. With pressure, you will have effective corners. This team needs a new offensive system,and a franchise qb of the future. A veteran like Josh McCown to play in front of him for a year ( like Kitna did for Palmer). If we don't address this offense, it won't matter if we get the 2 best corners in the draft if they are always playing on a short field and gambling to make a big play and score because the offense can't.
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Greg,
You know you make a good point about corners. There's a school of thought out there that the rules are such that it doesn't matter how good the corners are -- there are no lock-down corners. And yes, I'll take a big pressure guy any day. But I don't buy entirely that CBs don't make a difference. Asante Samuel is big, big for the Patriots. Look at that Cromartie in San Diego this year. But you do have plenty of football people who would agree with you.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Greg | December 10, 2007 12:02 PM
As crazy as this might sound... I'd actually like to see the Ravens take a chance on Delaware's QB. Great arm and accurate too. He seems unflappable in the pocket (course I know the competition isn't as good).
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And you don't have to take him in the first round or maybe even the second.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: John | December 10, 2007 12:07 PM
i think we need to start troy smith in the next 3 games to see if he can do the buisness or not but cant be any worse than boller the ravens could draft any position as they are in that much trouble some cheques need to be signed in the offseason ie asante samuel would be a good start
Posted by: tony | December 10, 2007 12:31 PM
If we draft in the high end of the range you give - around 7th - Virginia's DE Chris Long might still be there. He's an amazing pass-rusher - especially considering they run a 3-4 - as well as run stopper. We need an heir apparent to Trevor Pryce, and even when our secondary plays well, their performance is often tied to how much pressure we get on the QB. Long will probably go in the top 5, though.
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Matt,
Agreed and agreed. I'd love to see Chris Long in Purple and Black. I think he'd be perfect for Rex Ryan's defense. And yes, I think he will be gone even at No. 7.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Matt | December 10, 2007 1:03 PM
Bill
I think they have more needs than a QB at this time.
They still need O-linemen. Put good ones in place and every QB looks better. Do that for Boller and I'd bet the ranch people will be saying, "Gee, he's really improved."
Next, they need a puss rushing interior D-lineman...same story. Its amazing how much better your DB's look when the opposing QB has to run for his life...look at last week against the Pats and what happened to both Big Ben and Manning when the heat was on them against the Jets and Chargers.
Next, they need a bonafide long receiving threat.
But, more than anything they can get in the draft, they need for Bisciotti to sit down with Billick and tell him that Ozzie Newsome is going to hire an O-coordinator and Billick is NOT to be involved in the offense at all next year.
If Billick doesn't like it, he can quit.
Otherwise, we can change the parts until Hell freezes over and its not going to make much of a difference.
Posted by: Ed D | December 10, 2007 1:04 PM
Dan Connors is a freak at LB.
Posted by: Jeff | December 10, 2007 1:07 PM
How about we draft 7 QB's and see if we can get any luck with that. It's obvious the Ravens don't know a thing about drafting a QB. It's the Law of Averages! One of them should be decent.
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Daryl,
I feel the frustration coming out today.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Daryl | December 10, 2007 1:10 PM
If Ryan is gone by our #1 pick, we take the best defensive player available, regardless of his position. We then focus on the 2nd or 3rd rd for a QB (yes, I agree that the guy from Delaware would potentially be a nice fit).
And I would trade our next 3 years picks for NE's offensive coordinator!
Posted by: Ron | December 10, 2007 1:41 PM
Needs - not in any particular order
QB, Shut down corner, Rush DE, ILB. Who ever is the best available in these positions we should take. The QB pick up high is touchy. One only has to look at Matt Leinart, Alex Smith, Mike Vick, and then look at Tony Romo, Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck and wonder whether blowing a high pick on a QB is the right thing to do. However, and this is a really big point - no qb in the system we have run for the last 8 years has done well. I love BB as a head coach, but I am finally of the belief that we need to scrap the entire offensive system and start all over again.
Posted by: Ed from Park Heights | December 10, 2007 2:00 PM
The ravens are going to have a high pick and should trade down in the draft. Kansas shutdown corner Aqib Talib will be available around the 20th pick in the draft.(He also doesnt have character issues like jenkins from south florida) This would allow the ravens to gain picks and solidify the O-Line and get deeper at the linbacker position.
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Derek,
You sound like you're already in draft mode. I normally get caught up at the combine.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Derek | December 10, 2007 2:11 PM
Does anyone know what draft picks we have gained and or lost due to free agent signings last year?
Posted by: fredneckron | December 10, 2007 2:29 PM
does nobody think troy smith can be a quality qb for this team if he is given the chance the next 3 games and looks steady will save us a pick in draft ravens should flush next 3 games to get higher pick
Posted by: tony | December 10, 2007 2:49 PM
Year after year we complain that we don't have any offense, isn't it time to address that need. Personally i think the Raven will be lucky and stupid to beat Miami, unless Smith does it. I wonder if Mcfadden is coming out, i bet he does and if we end up 4-12 we'd have a shot and Colt or Flacco should be there for the taking in the 2nd or third round and both seem to have a good upside. But hopefully we will address offense this year.
Posted by: Paul | December 10, 2007 2:51 PM
I see people talking about o line and lb and can't believe it. The point about pressure making corners look good is right on, but what would really make our defense special again is the ability to take a few deep breaths during a game while sitting on the bench. They are constantly defending a short field and playing twice as much as they should be. We don't have a need at linebacker with two special guys in burgess and barnes already waiting behind lewis and scott. We've focused on the o line in the last three drafts and certainly the hope is that will start to pay dividends. We need a corner, but don't forget that McCalister and Rolle are still solid, but they've been hurt. WE NEED A QUARTERBACK! This isn't an option. This shouldn't be a debate. Our offense is potentially the worst in the league and that's due in large part to the coaching and the schemes, but also to the fact that we don't have a viable starter. Do you really think Troy Smith has the talent of Brady, Manning or Romo? Take it down a notch. Can he run with Hasselbeck, Roethlisberger or Bulger? If he beats Miami next week should we really anoint him our savior? Give me a break. This is a QB rich draft and we are going to get a high pick. To not use it on that need would be criminal.
Posted by: Adam | December 10, 2007 2:56 PM
Good afternoon Mr. Ordine,
This may sound strange, considering the Baltimore Ravens have gone through nearly a decade of poor quarterback play, but I don't feel it is necessary to risk a first round pick on a quarterback. If we hit, then it is great. However, if we miss again, that could be another three years or so of poor quarterback play. Brady was a low pick. Derek Anderson was a low pick. The key is not to draft in the first round, but to just have good sound scouting at the quarterback position. It seems that Phil Savage was the brains behind Derek Anderson and with him eventually went Anderson. Quarterback seems to be the one weakness for Ozzie to draft. I believe that if we can improve our scouting of the position overall, we may be able to use that first round pick elsewhere. This entry is a bit long, so I will continue what I was saying in another one.
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Doug,
Don't worry, take as much space as you need.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Doug | December 10, 2007 3:01 PM
COLT BRENNAN
Posted by: JWBBZ | December 10, 2007 3:09 PM
Shy away from a QB in this QB-rich draft and we continue to make the same mistake that has ruined us for so many years. We NEED a franchise QB. People act like it's not a need and we can afford to go CB or something like that in the first round. I'm tired of attempted bandaids at the quarterback position like Elvis Grbac and Steve McNair. Kyle Boller isn't the future, and I'm sorry people, but Troy Smith completing a couple of nice passes against Indy's backups isn't enough to convince me Ttoy is the future either, although I'd like to see him start the rest of the season just to see what he's got.
This draft is very deep in corners. We could pick up a guy like Justin King, Aqil Talib, or DeJuan Tribble in Round 2. The 1st round corners aren't nearly as good as everyone thinks, and passing on a QB for anyone aside from Glenn Dorsey or Chris Long is absolutely unacceptable. We need a new head coach, and we need a quarterback of the future, starting this offseason. Those are the two most fundamental, absolute truths about the Baltimore Ravens. No more luxury picks. Chris McAlister will be servicable for a couple of years longer, and we can pick up a good young corner in Round 2. QB's take a couple of years to develop, unlike corners or DE's, so you need to get them on to the roster as soon as possible. Delay drafting a QB and the Ravens risk not having their guy ready for another 3 or 4 years.
Posted by: Ryan K. | December 10, 2007 3:12 PM
The continuation....
Now, many people are wondering what is wrong with the defense this year. Some are saying injuries. Others are saying miscommunication. The one thing about this defense that has not been there is pressure. Suggs can be a force, but if there is no pressure opposite him, the double teams are evident. Trevor Pryce has been hurt and is not getting younger. We need a Beast DE opposite Suggs for the future, one that can get penetration against the run by bulling into you and that can speed around you on the pass rush. With that sort of pass rush and Ngata/Gregg stuffing the run, we would have the best d-line in the league. I believe that should be our top priority as far as high draft picks.
This defense works best with Big strong physical, athletic corners. No more 5-11 corners, please? Rolle is getting older and so is McAlister. Martin and Pittman don't seem to have the basics down at that. Draft a big speedy corner with a physical attitude, bring in Donnie Henderson to teach him the best technique, and our secondary may be in business for a while.
One need in particular that has not been mentioned much is at LT. Is Jonathan Ogden going to retire? How long is he going to make us wait for an answer? Is Merriweather being groomed to take his place and is he capable of it. It is clear that Terry is not fit for RT. That may be another need, but Replacing a hall of famer to protect your quarterback's blindside(more than likely), would be the most crucial addition needed.
Otherwise, it might not hurt to draft a more physical wide reciever that is determined to come down with the ball in his hands, that is willing to go up and fight for the ball. Williams has the ups, but he hardly ever comes down with the ball. Mason can't stretch the field, Darling does have concentration lapses and Clayton just doesn't seem tough enough. I don't see it as the largest need though. Just a thought.
Otherwise, bring back Donnie Henderson to be the defensive coordinator if Ryan finds a head coaching position and bring in a coordinator on offense that doesn't give up on the run after the first quarter, that knows how to make adjustments, manage the clock, the list goes on.
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Doug,
Thanks for the thoughful comment. Just wanted to make sure of one thing... as you talked about the backup LOT, I think you meant Jared Gaither. Just didn't want to confuse anyone out there.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Doug | December 10, 2007 3:16 PM
Why is everybody clamoring for Ryan? Except for two minutes in the Va Tech game, he has looked extremely ordinary, including the Maryland game. He is by no means a sure thing. And like everyone else has commented, you could bring back Johnny Unitas and he would flounder in the current offensive scheme.
Posted by: Former Sun Sportswriter | December 10, 2007 3:25 PM
How many qb's has Billick gone through? It's not the qb, it's the person who's teaching/handling the qb. When the Colts left Baltimore for Indy in 1984, I started pulling for them anyway although it hurt not to have them in Baltimore. Indy went through a bunch of coaches in the 80's- early 90's under Irsay (father). Forgive me for saying that name. Why so many coaches? Was it really each one's fault that the teams were terrible each year. Of course not. They played the fall guy. Irsay didn't know anything about managing a sucessful football team & instead of trying to change the system, well, he just fired coaches left & right & treated the players like commodities. You remember when Indy had Eric Dickerson. Shoot, he ran the ball almost every down. I thought his legs would fall off. That's not how you do things. Same is true with Billick. How many qb's has he destroyed? Were all that bad? I don't think so. I think it's Billick &/or his system. We've got to cut the chord with Billick or we'll be right back here either next year or the year after that. The players just don't respond to him anymore. The qb's have never responded to his system/personality. So I say fire Billick, keep Boller & Smith, let Ogdon & McNair retire, & get some youth at the corner & the O line.
Posted by: Bart | December 10, 2007 3:39 PM
why should we draft a qb who the hell in there right mind would want to qb for a billick run offence the qbs in the draft will be praying they get passed by baltimore we drafted troy give him a decent chance before we go wasting another qbs future.
Posted by: tony | December 10, 2007 3:46 PM
Bill, you said that we shouldn't get too caught up in the draft talk since it's a long way to April. But look at it from a fan's perspective: the Orioles will already be eliminated by then.
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Mike,
I'm going to save up all these comments and send them to Peter Angelos. You folks are a stitch. Thanks for the chuckle.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Mike | December 10, 2007 4:07 PM
Berriman could fill the need for #1 wr, Pillip Rivers could be lured away fom the Chargers for the right price and Asantee Samuels could all be had with some creative cap restructuring. Draft a qb in the later rounds, the best available. Draft a shutdown corner first. Keep CMAC for as long as possible. Develop the practices squad and sign Troy Brown with 2-mill, 2-yr contract. Cut the under achievers loose, those who have spent 8 or more games on IR. Start Troy the rest of the way. Two must haves are Berriman, and Samuels. Trade Musa Smith and Heap in salary-cap efforts. Draft a tight end. Cut Mcnair, Darling,Greisen,BJ, Mike Smith, and those who have been on/off the active roster repeatedly. Big names out there include: Briggs, Troy Walters, Patrick Crayton, Ross Tucker, RB- Mike Turner . Of course we can't afford all of it but take your pick. The players will be available if they make room and move quick. The staleness of slow to move in the off season helps lead to the subpar seasons we keep having year after year. Show me The money! So it has been written! So let it get done!
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Cornell,
I like the Yul Byrnner touch at the end. Some of the things you suggest are intriguing. I'm not sure they can make as many trades as you suggest. This is the NFL, not MLB. And I'm way not sure about Troy Brown. I love the guy but he's a part-time player for a very good team that can find some spots for him. I doubt he'd help here much. Samuel I like. Of course, there will be competition for him.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: cornell | December 10, 2007 4:12 PM
What's with all the Smith hate? You drafted him for a reason, let the kid play and see what he can do.
Posted by: Eric | December 10, 2007 5:01 PM
I know we're all still sore from those bad years with Boller, but I think it's just reckless for us to waste a high draft pick on a QB. We can't have a spectacular offense and a spectacular defense at the same time (those Krafty Pats aside), and if you actually watch Kyle play in games where he's had our best weapons at his side, he's more than adequate and is substantially improved from the dreadfulness we saw before 2006.
With Todd Heap (his favorite receiver, especially on 3rd downs) and Demetrius Williams (the deep threat whenever Mason is in double coverage) injured for the majority of the games this season, how's the guy supposed to do anything? Right now he has Mason and Mark Clayton, and sometimes Sypniewski. Every other great QB in this league has a roster full of healthy TEs and WRs, and that's no coincidence.
As far as taking a CB with our 1st round pick, I agree that we desperately need to get some depth in the position, but we could probably stand to wait until the 2nd round as most of the highest rated picks are LB and DE's this year, with more than a couple of QBs that teams will grab, there's a chance that we could pull a Cleveland on this and get our most needed choice with our second pick. It will all depend on how it plays out at the end of the season of course.
And I don't think anybody would disagree that if Chris Long is still available, we should move hell and high water to get him. But he won't be.
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Ganriel,
I'm with you on Long.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Gabriel | December 10, 2007 5:08 PM
I would sign a proven QB like a Hasselbeck or even a Kitna and draft the best players available as usual. If JO is off the book I would sign a top notch free agent.
Posted by: Will | December 10, 2007 5:42 PM
We missed realizing Anderson's potential,and know little of Smith's. Madden seemed to like Smith alot. Draft offensive lineman,a linebacker,and an aggresive corner.
Posted by: Stan Coleman | December 10, 2007 5:50 PM
Just once I'd like to see this team draft for OFFENSE and not Defense.
Posted by: POPSinPA | December 10, 2007 6:32 PM
Forget about a cornerback in the first round, trade up this year's first round and a third this year along with a third or even second next year if that is what it takes to get Matt Ryan. He is the best QB prospect I have seen coming out of College since Carson Palmer. They need to get him and the team will become a threat once more in a year or so.
Posted by: old19fan | December 10, 2007 7:03 PM
I agree with taking Long should he be there when the Ravens pick. He will provide a pass rush that we haven't seen since McCrary. I feel a good qb will be available in rd. 2. We have no pick in rd 3(Bills own it). But I wonder what compensation we will get for free agents lost? Considering his level of play, AD could land us a 3rd round pick. Also, Samuels should be a top priority in the free agent market. I think the O-line will be better once the team commits to the younger players. It would be hard pressed to think anyone could replace a legend, but J.O. needs to retire.
Posted by: Henry | December 10, 2007 7:06 PM
Need an O line. Brady and P. Manning are rarely hurried, let alone sacked. We have no idea whether Boller can be a reasonable QB. Every play he is scrambling for his life.
Posted by: Old Fan | December 10, 2007 8:49 PM
Gotta get a Beast DE.That will solve many of the issues on Defense.
On offense, gotta throw away the playbook and get rid of billick.
Posted by: jared | December 10, 2007 9:22 PM
i'm pretty sure we traded a few picks away for Mcgahee didn't we? If yes than you need to take that into consideration when drafting
Posted by: mark | December 10, 2007 9:25 PM
I say sign DeAngelo Hall from the Falcons as another CB and make Rolle a safety or nickel back. Let us at least give Troy Smith several games to prove himself (if we did it for Kyle Boller for 40 games we can at least give the Heisman trophy winner 3 games).
I would love a defensive end as Pryce's heir apparent. The guy from LSU would be awesome!!
Posted by: Amen | December 10, 2007 9:51 PM
Start Smith against Miami. If he comes out and has problems, bring in Boller (he is used to that). If Smith plays well, start him the rest of the season.
I'm not very keen on Brennan. I like the QB from Delaware. He's big (6'5") he's mobile, and has a rocket for an arm. The O-line is young, but have a lot of potential.
Fill D needs via trade-draft or FA
Posted by: Buck | December 11, 2007 12:12 AM
Wow amazing apparently no one really is paying attention. we have more than enough linebackers and very good ones at that. What we don't have is a number 1 receiver. Our corners are old and getting older, and slower. We need 2 corners 1 in the 1st round, and maybe another in the 3rd, or fourth round. Maybe a quarterback we can develop in the third, or fourth round. Or even a late steal since it seems almost every year the best quarterbacks turn out to be the ones that come with no hype, or fanfare. And lastly one more big space eating defensive tackle. Add that up we have a 13, to 14 win team and the coach is a genius again. Oh and by the way, I happen to be in the minority of those who believes Steve Mcnair will come back strong next year. Hopefully here in Baltimore, and by the next year Troy Smith or the new QB we draft will be ready to takeover the reins. With this recipe I say the future looks bright in Baltimore.
Posted by: Tony C | December 11, 2007 12:39 AM
Gimmie the corner from U of Arizona at pick 10 or 11 please...good size & intellegent......only quarterback I think we would want anyway is the guy from Boston College, other 2 are gonna struggle....we can try to buy a guy like Rosenfels if we want a veteran & not pay 6MM a year or we can draft a guy like Booty if he is around in the 3rd or Flacco in the 4th...if we wanna have 2 shots to have the QB of the future along with Smith...(the latter requiring Smith being deemed fit to sub for Boller)
Posted by: Cully | December 11, 2007 1:10 AM
Dan Connor from Penn State would be the perfect pick for us...he is the best linebacker to come out of Linebacker U since Jack Ham.
Posted by: swiftsilent1 | December 11, 2007 3:41 PM
Dan Conner. Best linebacker since Jack Ham. Isnt that what they said about LeVar?????
Posted by: Captain Jack | December 11, 2007 5:07 PM
1st = Antoin Cason cb- Arizona
2nd = Frank Okam dt -Texas
3rd = none
4th = Erin Henderson lb - Maryland
5th = Tom Santi te - Virginia
6th = Derek Kinder wr - Pitt
7th = Sam Keller qb - Nebraska
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Mike,
I applaud your ambition going seven rounds deep.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: MIKE GALEANO JR. | December 11, 2007 5:17 PM
Conner isnt even the first or second best linebacker in his own conference,,,,,, and Ryan plays a really weak schedule.
Posted by: Bill Trout | December 11, 2007 5:23 PM