Picking against the spread
I'm designating this bounce-back week because I've decided that most of the teams I like best are ones I figure are due for a rebound from losses. They are all quality teams with winning records with some season left. So they have both talent and motivation going for them. Our record here is 17-14-2 and we were 1-2 last week, so I can identify with the teams I'm picking.
N.Y. Giants at Detroit (2 1/2). Actually, both teams have winning records (both are 6-3) and each got whacked last week, but the one I like for the bounce-back is New York. The Lions are Jekyll-Hyde, looking great one week and awful the next. They messed up a chance to put themselves in great position for at least a wild-card berth against a very beatable Arizona team. The Giants hung in there tough against the Cowboys. The Giants, by now, are more familiar with this type of game. Pick: Giants, giving 2 1/2.
Washington at Dallas (-11 1/2). Washington is in a free-for-all for an NFC wild-card race and got its collective nose bloodied last week against Philadelphia. But I'm relying on rivalry and the Redskins' recent penchant for driving the the NFC East-leading Cowboys crazy. Washington is 3-1 against the spread in Cowboys games the last two years. Pick: Washington, getting 11 1/2.
Tennessee at Denver (-2). Monday night. Vince Young vs. Jay Cutler. The Titans laid an egg in an important game against Jacksonville but are still just a game behind Indianapolis in the AFC South, and tied with the Jaguars. Denver throttled Kansas City. Young (above)may not have the best stats -- in fact, some are outright awful -- but he seems to just win, baby. And Jeff Fisher doesn't allow his team to stay on the mat. I'd like to be getting an extra point here, but you can't have everything. Pick: Tennessee, getting 2.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta (3). The Buccaneers had a bye last week so they don't qualify as a bounce-back team but Atlanta somehow beat Carolina and I can't imagine these guys putting two decent games together. However, the Falcons have surprised me all year -- they're 6-3 against the spread (3-6 in the standings). I still think they're terrible and the Bucs (5-4 in the NFC South) are still in the hunt. Pick: Tampa Bay, giving 3.
Photo credit: Associated Press


Comments
Tuff games. 3 road upsets out of 4 picks? Gibbs hates to lose to the Cowboys. But, with the injuries to the Skins. I cant see anything other than a Cowboy scalping.
The Lions are 4-0 at home this week, and the Giants did beat the Redskins, Dolphins and Falcons on the road. But, that is not saying much. They looked bad last week against the Cowboys and that was with the advantage of a bye week, which should have helped them.
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I like the Redskins with the points, not to win outright. We'll see if the Good Lions or the Bad Lions show up.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Captain Jack | November 16, 2007 1:30 PM