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Picking against the spread

This is the week when there will be talk of so-called "trap" games for New England and Indianapolis, although the term, in its strictest sense, doesn't really apply in either case.

With the NFL's elite teams a week away from playing each other in this year's biggest regular-season showdown, Indianapolis plays at Carolina, and New England is at Foxboro against Washington. Both the Panthers and Redskins are 4-2, so neither should be overlooked. 

Because of the wildfires in Southern California and the uncertainty over where the Texans-Chargers game will be played, that matchup has been taken off the board by many Internet sites, at least for now.

The record here at O, by the Way, as we approach the midpoint of the season, is 10-11-2 after a lousy 0-4 last week.

Cleveland at St. Louis (-3). The Rams have been absolutely miserable for a month but they get star running back Steven Jackson back this week from a groin injury. The Browns' Jamal Lewis has been having foot problems, but he practiced, and tight end Kellen Winslow has been nursing both a sore shoulder and knee. Cleveland is coming off a bye week, though, so they're as fresh as any team can be at this time of year. This pick is based on Cleveland beginning to find itself and the Rams continuing to unravel. Pick:  Cleveland, giving 3.

Indianapolis at Carolina (6 1/2). Both of these teams are solid against the spread, but the Colts rise to the occasion against teams with winning records. The Panthers' quarterback situation has been up in the air all week. David Carr has been practicing, but he's still bothered by a back injury. That means that Vinny Testaverde could wind up starting against a Colts defense that's ranked No. 3 overall in the NFL. Of course, then there's Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis offense. Pick:  Indianapolis, giving 6 1/2.

Philadelphia at Minnesota (Pick). Andy Reid goes against his former offensive coordinator, Brad Childress. The 2-4 Eagles coughed up what looked like a sure win against the Bears last week when they allowed Chicago to go 97 yards for the winning touchdown drive. The 2-4 Vikings have their own problems with QB Tavaris Jackson struggling through his first year as a starter. Now, Jackson has a finger injury that may put Kelly Holcomb behind center against Philadelphia. Reid seems to be able to rally the troops when they have their backs against the wall, and there are some guys on that Philadelphia roster who remember how to win. Pick: Philadelphia, even.

Washington at New England (48, over-under). The Patriots have been simply incredible. They are 7-0 in the standings and 7-0 against the spread. They are 16- to 17-point favorites again this week. It's just unfathomable that they can continue to cover these lines. The problem this week is the same that's always been. They could have a three-touchdown lead and surrender a give-away TD at the end, and that would bust the line. However, they are averaging nearly 40 points a game and they've shown little inclination to back off on offense no matter what the score is. The Redskins have a terrific defense, but I don't think it matters against the Pats. I just hope Washington can keep up its end of the scoring. Pick:  Over, 48.

Comments

It depends on which Redskins team shows up to play. One thing to keep in mind, Gibbs is 4-0 against the Patriots. The Redsksins is the only team that Tom Brady has not beaten. The last time the Patriots beat the Redskins was in 1972.

Props on the picks, especially after a tough week last week. 4-0 is hard to argue with. I enjoy your blog with or without the picks, but it is fun to see someone in the media who actually has some understanding and appreciation for the spread picking games. Keep it up, and best of luck.
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Alex,
Thanks for the kind words ... I wouldn't want to have to make a living doing it, that's for sure.
-- Bill O.

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About the blogger
Bill Ordine has been a reporter and editor for more than 25 years and during that time has covered Super Bowls, major murder trials, township zoning board meetings and bat mitzvahs. In his time with The Baltimore Sun, he has been an assistant city editor, pro football writer, poker columnist, enterprise sports reporter and now blogger -- which may indicate his editors have yet to find a job he can get right.
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