Patriots run roughshod over bookmakers
I brought up the subject of the New England Patriots yesterday with the director of sports and race book operations for MGM-Mirage casinos in Las Vegas, Robert Walker.
The Patriots, despite being a consistent double-digit favorite so far this season, are 5-0 against the spread. Now, it often happens that some surprise team will confound the oddsmakers early in the season, but New England was a heavy preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl. On Sunday, it took an incredible fumble recovery for a TD in the final minute for the Pats to beat a 16 1/2-point line by the slimmest of margins, 34-17 -- but they did it..
And the crowds in casino sports books, Walker said, went wild.
"They're killing us," Walker said of the Patriots. "Every week, it's like a freebie."
Walker thinks New England's Bill Belichick (right) is eager to dish out paybacks for the early-season cheating embarrassment, and the team is rallying around him.
Which brings us to Sunday's Patriots game against the Cowboys in Dallas. Before the Cowboys escaped with a one-point victory in Buffalo, I had predicted a game-time 6-point spread for New England-Dallas (Patriots as the favorite, naturally). This will be one of the most watched and wagered-on games of the regular season for the obvious reason -- two undefeated teams in what could be a dress rehearsal for the Super Bowl.
So, the line opened yesterday at 4 and quickly moved to 4 1/2 on Internet betting sites. Walker opened his line at 4 1/2. But at least one major casino went quickly to 5 1/2. Today, the prevailing line on the Internet is 5 1/2 and Bodog is at -- ta da -- 6 points. I knew they'd see it my way.
Part of what's going on is that even though Dallas is a public team and draws scads of money, the public is focusing on what happened Monday night. Actually, Walker sees the Buffalo outcome as a positive for the Cowboys
"Look, Dallas has to be a pretty good team to commit six turnovers and still win the game," he said. "But all the betting public remembers is that they didn't cover." The Cowboys were double-digit favorites over the Bills and never came close to saving Dallas bets.
What has Walker really worried is that the Patriots might roll over the Cowboys like they have everyone else. Considering Dallas is clearly the class of the NFC (with apologies to Green Bay), if the Cowboys don't put up a fight against New England, then the Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch -- or even the Colts should Indianapolis successfully challenge New England -- will be 20-point favorites.
Big point-spread Supes are a huge headache for bookmakers. For one thing, they bring out the money-line bettors who take the underdog with long odds -- and if the 'dog actually wins the game, the books get hammered.
Photo credit: Jim Rogash/AP
Comments
Hogwash! Under Bill, the Patriots have always tried to have a high powered offense. The legimately won 3 superbowls! Brady is a stud at QB, look at his career stats! For Walker to think its because of the cheating scandal is well within his rights. I just don't agree with his reasoning.
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Capt.,
Walker's point is that the Patriots are rolling it up this year with increased vim and vigor because of the additional motivation. This is about how the spread may be impacted by special factors, not necessarily simply winning. No one is saying they didn't legitimately win anything. If you look back over the last four years, the Patriots are solid against the line ... but certainly not this good. Interestingly, in their Supes against Philly and Carolina, they didn't cover after seasons when they absolutely demolished the line but, of course, that doesn't matter to them. They have the rings and the Lombardi Trophy
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Captain Jack | October 10, 2007 12:36 PM
I feel oddly empathetic to the intellectual challenges of running a sports book and predicting lines and spreads...but I'm also low on sympathy given how badly some people's lives are destroyed by financial debt incurred from gambling on games.
Admittedly, every bettor is a willing participant and subjects themselves to the risk, but Walker's operation makes its fortune not by providing its base with service or goods but by simply collecting money directly on someone's loss.
Since the thrill of the bet could be considered entertainment it's arguably fair, legal, and moral (depending on one's personal belief set). I concede that and I'm not complaining so much as pointing out why it's hard to shed a tear for these guys!
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Jay,
The reservations you express about gambling are legit. Just as are concerns over drinking or tobacco use or overeating, for that matter. And I don't think any of these sports book operators expect any sympathy. They'd just as soon have the long side of 6-to-5 and express their thanks for the customer's patronage. Thanks for reading and writing.
-- Bill O.
Posted by: Jay Maduro | October 10, 2007 4:42 PM