Predictions for UFC 110
On Saturday the Ultimate Fighting Championship brings us a matchmaker's dream -- a card filled with evenly-matched fighters.
Starting with the main event between Cain Velasquez and Antonio Rodrigo “Big Nog” Nogueira, both fighters are comfortable on their feet and on the ground. Nogueira is one of the best jiu-jitsu-fighting heavyweights in the world.
Velasquez ranks second only to Brock Lesnar when it comes to wrestling in the heavyweight division.
Velasquez's game plan should be to stay off his back and ground and pound Nogueira. The key will be to see Velasquez's reaction when he is on his back and Nogueira is in his guard.
It will be interesting to see Nogueira's face when he feels the punching power of Velaquez for the first time. “Big Nog” has taken some big punches over the years from guys like Fedor Emelianenko, Heath Herring, Dan Henderson and Frank Mir. But none of the aforementioned guys can hit like Velaquez.
When the final horn sounds, I see Velasquez suffering his first loss, with Nogueira winning on a close decision, 29-28 on all three score cards.
The co-main event fight between Wanderlei Silva and Michael Bisping is what you call a snack fight -- you step into the next room to get a snack and this one may be over. “The Axe Murderer” Silva swings for the fences from the opening bell, and his intensity is unmatched. These are two of the most exciting middleweights in the division.
Bisping's strategy must be to take this fight to the ground, because he cannot stand toe-to-toe and take another punch like Dan Henderson delivered to him. Silva hits like a heavyweight, but may have taken too many punches over the years. His inability to take a punch has weakened his reputation among UFC fans.
But, I still give the edge to Wanderlei by knockout in the first round. He needs this fight more than Bisping to remain in the UFC. As long as there are fight cards in Europe, Bisping should have a contract with the UFC.
Joe “Daddy” Stevenson takes on Australian-born George Sotiropoulos in a lightweight battle.
Stevenson has become a stepping-stone for any fighter looking for a title shot. With 46 fights (36 wins, 10 losses) under his belt, this cagey veteran's losses have come against some of the elite fighters of this division. Guys like BJ Penn, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez are just some of his toughest opponents.
Sotiropoulos' only two losses were to Shinya Aoki, which was a disqualification for a groin strike, and a loss to Kyle Noke which he later avenged. He will have the home crowd cheering him on.
Sotiropoulos is right at the doorstep for a title shot with Penn, but it will be contingent on him winning this fight with Stevenson. He is a well-rounded fighter with good stamina, a black belt in jiu-jitsu and an amateur boxing background.
So, I’m going with Sotiropoulous by a unanimous decision over Stevenson.
As for the remaining fights, Ryan Bader will remain undefeated with a win over Keith Jardine by decision.
Ben Rothwell is fighting Mirko Cro Cop in a matchup of heavyweights. Rothwell seems to get nervous when going against big-name fighters. Cro Cop needs to win this by a knockout if he ever wants a title shot. Cro Cop's next opponent is likely to be the winner of Velasquez-Nogueira. I’m taking Cro Cop by TKO.
Chris Haseman and Elvis Sinosic first fought in 1997 in Australia. Haseman won that fight, but Sinosic will win this one by submission.
Krzysztof Soszynski is a very aggressive fighter with good stand-up. Stephan Bonnar would be better off not to stand and brawl with him, but this is Stephan Bonnar. He won't back down and is a 'forget-my-game-plan' type of fighter. This will be the “fight of the night” with plenty of blood. In the end, I give the edge to Soszynski, because he will dictate the fight.
Chris Lytle vs. Brian Foster is a pretty evenly-matched fight. I give the edge to Lytle because of experience.
Croatia Goran Reljic takes on CB Dollaway in a middleweight match. Reljic is a well-rounded fighter and will be too much for Dollaway. I see the fight only going two rounds with Reljic winning by submission.
New Zealand's James Te Huna is making his UFC debut against Igor Pokrajac, who is one of three Croatians on the card along with Cro Cop and Reljic. I haven’t seen many of Te Huna's fights -- just a couple Internet matches that didn’t impress me. Te Huna is fighting out of Penrith, Australia, so someone has to sell the local tickets. Pokajac wins by TKO.
Those are my picks. What are yours?
Kevin Richardson has been a fan of mixed martial arts competition ever since UFC 3, when 600-pound sumo wrestler Emmanuel Yarborough was beaten by Keith Hackney. Kevin will cover the world of MMA — in Baltimore, nationally and internationally. He plans to take readers into the locker rooms and MMA schools, where they'll hear from local fighters and trainers. If you have a news tip or suggestions for the blog, please 
Comments
...um, Cain hits like a middleweight, did you miss the Cheik Kongo fight? He hit Kongo a hundred times - you have Carwin or Fedor hitting someone even THREE times and they'd be dead - Cain is a great fighter, but a power puncher? I don't think so.
Posted by: MMAnalyst | February 16, 2010 4:39 PM
rickson gracie by rear naked choke in the 1st
Posted by: mclean | February 16, 2010 5:13 PM
I don't mean to be a hater, but this article seems like you made it up as you went along.
What makes you think Velasquez has punching power greater than the list of heavyweights you mention Nogueira has been punched by? Mir dropped Cheick Kongo with one punch. Velasquez couldn't finish Kongo with 250+ punches. When it comes to wrestling advantage, I'd point out that Couture matched Lesnar in the wrestling range, but wasn't able to use that ability to impose his will on Nog. Anything can happen in this fight, but Nog has fought tougher.
I don't know what to expect from Wandi vs. Bisping, but I'm surprised you didn't bring up the question mark around Wandi's power after dropping to 185. That could be significant. His chin has definitely been in question, but getting hit by Bisping isn't like getting hit by Liddell or Rampage. I think Bisping is a smarter fighter though, so we'll see.
First, Stevenson and Sotiropoulos are lightweights, not welters. Second, when does a jiu jitsu guy ever win a decision over a wrestler? "Daddy" needs this one. He's got a good new camp, and I'm expecting him to take it by stoppage. If not, Sotiropoulos by sub.
I think CroCop is going to have to do more than beat Ben Rothwell to get a shot at the winner of Nog/Cain. He has sucked in the UFC, and I think he's going to need to win against a top 10 HW before they give him what is tantamount to a #1 contender shot.
And my last complaint is that Sotiropoulos is Australian, not Croatian!
Sorry, but that's my 2 cents.
Guitaronin,
Thanks for the catch, I was referring too Goran Reljic as the third Croatian on the card.
Thanks for your 2 cents.
After seeing the fight...I guess Cain has punching power like a predicted. And as for BJJ guys not winning decisions over wrestlers...I guess I was right again, Sotiropoulos (BJJ) won a decision over Stevenson (wrestler)
Posted by: Guitaronin | February 16, 2010 6:47 PM
CAIN VELASQUEZ HITS LIKE A SUPER HEAVYWEIGHT
Posted by: gay fish | February 16, 2010 11:49 PM
What a strange write up. Velasquez has more power than Fedor Henderson and Mir? Cro Cop gets the #1 contender after beating a guy with no wins in the UFC?
Certainly a minority report!
Corey,
Do you still think this?
Posted by: Corey | February 18, 2010 10:22 AM
Gotta pick a puncher over a grappler anytime... I just hate the grappling part. Velasquez will hopefully unleash the sledgehammer
Posted by: poker rakeback | February 19, 2010 3:34 AM
anyone have bars they recommend to watch the fight in baltimore city???
Posted by: skm | February 19, 2010 9:22 AM
Cain smashed antonio in this fight I couldn't believe it! I had high hopes for nog workin his way up and taking on lesnar but now that won't happen :(
Posted by: Mixed Martial Arts | February 27, 2010 2:55 AM
Is it too late to take back my diatribe? Just about everything you said came true. I guess that's why you're a pro sports writer, and I'm not. :)
Posted by: Guitaronin | March 2, 2010 1:39 PM
Kevin,
I do still believe that Henderson, Mir, and Fedor have more punching power than Velasquez. I never doubted the pick, I would've been shocked if Velasquez had lost. Minotauro couldn't even snap off one punch by the time Cain had landed a combination. He is done for.
I also believe that if Cro Cop had fought Rothwell and won he would not have been put in a #1 contender bout. Of course with the replacement that remains a hypothetical debate.
Very good picks, now why don't you write more so this blog can pick up steam like when Pramit was running it? Not posting for two weeks kills your readership.
Kevin,
I will be blogging on a regular basis going forward. I was out of the country for 11 days and now I'm back.
Kevin R.
Posted by: Kevin | March 3, 2010 9:58 AM
I guess Cain can hit - but I say it was more speed and accuracy than raw power... a punch right on the button will drop a dude, but I don't see Cain making Heath Herring do a backward roll from a punch like he did from Lesnar's opening salvo in their fight... or TKOing a dude from an awkward, less powerful angle (like Lesnar did to Mir).
My 2 cents.
MMAnalyst,
I believe Brock is in a league by himself. He's a beast and I believe he hit the hardest of any fighter in MMA. Not since the (young) George Foreman have I seen a fighter with such pure strength.
But my point was that Cain has heavy hands and many fans don't give him credit for his punching power.
Kevin R.
Posted by: MMAnalyst | March 4, 2010 1:52 PM
...I give Cain more respect for punching now then I did. But I need to see more - maybe a KO that is NOT right on the button, or a body shot that drops a dude - that's power. We'll see what his next fight brings I guess - I still think he's a great addition to the UFC and the heavyweight class in general.
Posted by: MMAnalyst | March 5, 2010 8:03 PM
honestly cant wait for GSP to shut up Dan Hardy.. Dan Hardy is NO
competition for GSP … Thiago Alves is a better competitor than Dan Hardy and Alves got his pounded by GSP with a pulled groin. Dan Hardy is a JOKE!!
Mir/Carwin Hardy/GSP is the best card we have seen since UFC 100 (the
last time GSP fought) and Hardy is talking lots of trash.
GSP is a heavy favourite and by all means should dominate YET again..
Carwin and Mir is gonna be ridiculous!! Think Carwin will knock him
out?
Posted by: Tim ALvine | March 19, 2010 9:53 PM