Can Shogun beat Lyoto Machida?
The odds aren't in his favor. Right now, the line on the Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Lyoto Machida fight for the light heavyweight title is Mauricio Rua (+375) vs. Lyoto Machida (-550). If you're not a degenerate gambler, like I used to be, this essentially means Machida is a heavy favorite.
It's hard to disagree because Shogun hasn't looked overly impressive in any of his fights in the UFC. He was a legend in PRIDE and if that Shogun was in this fight, it might be more even. But with the unpredictability of what we'll get from Shogun, shouldn't he at least be given better odds? He was once considered the top light heavyweight fighter in the world by some analysts.
In the UFC, he lost to Forrest Griffin and was injury plagued until beating Mark Coleman more than a year later. Both his UFC wins, over Coleman and Liddell, aren't over guys exactly in their prime. Or even close to it.
Machida, on the other hand, has been fantastic lately. He's shaken the unfair label of being a "boring" fighter by winning the knockout of the night honors in his last two bouts, taking down Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans. Machida is near the top of his game, and it's not really known where Rua is.
Smart money is on Machida, but is anyone going to back Rua?
Comments
Mark I agree with your posting entirely. If the Shogun from PRIDE shows up I think he has a legitimate shot to beat Machida. I think if the Shogun we've seen in the UFC show's up he will be beaten badly. However, I will say this, the Shogun in Pride was a nasty, violent fighter who could knock his opponents out. We've seen Machida fight some violent, heavy hitters and no one has been able to really touch him. I think it will be the same in this fight regardless of how good Shogun looks. The problem with fighting Machida is I've never seen anyone able to dodge punches or attacks the way he can. What makes him more dangerous is he can hit people at the most unique and awkward angles. As a result people swing at him and not only can he dodge the hit, he can counter at the most unique angles that you didn't think it was possible. He is a very talented and smart fighter and I don't think you can stand up and exchage with him. I think Shogun will lose but his best bet is to take Machida to the ground and go for submissions. What's your thoughts?
Posted by: BmoreSportsFan28 | October 22, 2009 10:23 AM
If we see the shogun of old come out why not bet on him to win almost 4x as much??
Posted by: Luke Painter | October 22, 2009 10:53 AM
This fight is not easy to judge. By recent reputation Machida looks to be the favorite, however Shogun is known to surprise and if he is 100 percent in top form and comes in with full confidence and ability then an upset is possible. Where I believe Shogun will surprise is through his counter striking. Machida has been more confident on the offense lately and Shogun may take advantage of this. Speed and accuracy is definitely on Machida's side. The ace card for Shogun may be how his style plays off Machida's. Every fighter has a kryptonite opponent and Shogun could be that fighter as he has proved to be with other dominant fighters including top 10 MMA heavyweights.
Posted by: Brent | October 22, 2009 1:06 PM
More excited to see the local MMA finally in BMORE that night. I'll see Machida's beatdown on Shogun on DVR.
It's going to be real bad. Machida will make Shogun look like Forrest when he faced Silva. Machida's speed, power, and use of angles will overwhelm Shogun easily.
Posted by: Ballz Mahoney | October 22, 2009 1:43 PM
It's hard to disagree because Shogun hasn't looked overly impressive in any of his fights in the UFC. He was a legend in PRIDE and if that Shogun was in this fight, it might be more even. But with the unpredictability of what we'll get from Shogun, shouldn't he at least be given better odds? He was once considered the top light heavyweight fighter in the world by some analysts.
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Posted by: Gucci Sneakers | November 2, 2009 11:00 PM