Lukewarm on the Carwin-Lesnar fight
With Fedor Emelianenko out of the picture, it looks like MMA fans will get Shane Carwin vs. Brock Lesnar at UFC 106 in the next battle for the heavyweight title. The problem I have with this fight is that Carwin poses arguably the top threat to Lesnar (at least among heavyweights on the UFC’s roster). He’s 11-0 and, like Lesnar, he’s huge. He is also a former collegiate champion wrestler and he’s got a very powerful right hand.
The problem is, he’s not going to beat Lesnar. And then the UFC is without a clear opponent for Lesnar. Velasquez will be near the top of the list, along with the winner of the Randy Couture-Antonio Nogueira fight at UFC 102. Mirko Cro Cop could find his way on that list but not without two more wins first. And none of those fights are as interesting as the bout with Carwin.
Lesnar is good at all the things Carwin’s good at, and Lesnar is arguably better in all of them. Carwin’s size is on his side as he’s probably the biggest fighter Lesnar will face, but Carwin will still be the smaller fighter come fight night. Carwin has the longer resume but Lesnar’s fought much better competition. Carwin is a good wrestler but he’s been taken down by guys that aren’t outstanding wrestlers and Lesnar is an outstanding wrestler.
Don’t get me wrong, this will be an exciting fight, but I just can’t see Lesnar losing this one. I’d like to see this fight a year from now after Carwin has a few more tests, but for now, it’s the best fight the UFC can give us with Lesnar.
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