The pick: Couture
The biggest fight in the history of mixed martial arts! That's what it's being billed as by some writers and fans (and promoters). It's a big fight and it might do the most buys, but it's not the biggest fight in the sport's history.
Heck, UFC 94 is on the horizon with an even better main event as Georges St. Pierre takes on B.J. Penn. Randy Couture-Brock Lesnar can't top that because neither fighter is at their peak. Couture's best days are behind him and Lesnar's are ahead of him.
Still, this fight is going to be great. I can't wait for it. I think Lesnar has a higher ceiling than most people want to admit and he will do big things in this sport, but I'm going with Randy Couture in this fight.
He's one of the smartest fighters I've seen and his experience will help him against Lesnar. Lesnar is bigger, stronger, and faster but we still don't know a ton about him. Couture wants to prevent Lesnar's takedowns, but that won't happen. I don't think anyone can stop Lesnar's takedowns.
I do think Couture will be fine on his back and that his dirty boxing in the clinch will be a difference maker as well. Couture can't treat Lesnar like another Tim Sylvia because while Lesnar is big, he's a hell of a lot better on the ground and is quicker than Sylvia. Still, the rumor is that Couture is planning to do rely heavily on his ground and pound and I think that is a strategy that could work for Couture.
He's not going to be able to submit Lesnar, but I think he could keep him on his heels with an aggressive approach. We still don't know what Lesnar is capable of. He destroyed Heath Herring with a devastating punch early in their bout and Herring never recovered from that. If Lesnar can't get anything going very early, Couture should be able to execute his game plan. Frank Mir got lucky and caught a much more inexperienced Lesnar with a quick submission. No one has pressed Lesnar so that will be the key for Couture. I like him in a fourth-round TKO.
Comments
This fight is SO hard to predict because we haven't seen much from Lesnar. Erik Paulson has praised his striking over and over, for all we know Lesnar could shock everyone and outstrike Couture getting a knock out victory. A lot of people attempt to judge his striking based on the fact his two connecting punches have both dropped his opponent, but to say his boxing is slow and unrefined is folly at this point, because in both cases he took the fight to the ground afterwards. His knees are also never being mentioned, Couture could get seriously hurt in the clinch with Lesnar, and Lesnar could very well injure Couture with body shots, completely eliminating the head bobbing and weaving from the equation.
We'll get to see tomorrow!
Posted by: Anon | November 14, 2008 4:33 PM
I think you are out of your mind. With the way Lesnar man-handled Herring and Mir (until the lucky submission), I can't see Randy taking this one.
I expect more of the same. Lesnar will take him down with ease and keep pounding away.
As for Randy's ground and pound; I am not sure he can do enough damage to this monster!
I for one thought Lesnar was all hype after he lost to Mir. However, once I actually saw the fight, I changed my mind. Had Mir not been able to grab a stray limb, he would have been KO'd.
Posted by: Ray Lane | November 15, 2008 5:16 AM
While I admire Couture as a great warrior and athlete, the chances are high that he is physically no longer what he was. I hope he proves me wrong, but at 45, after so many months out of competition, and after so many wars (1/3 being losses) earlier in his career, Couture may find, as many extraordinary competitors before eventually found, that he can't physically do what his mind knows to do. In particular, his timing may be off, and he won't be able to "pull the trigger". If so, then Lesnar, who's probably at the physical peak of his athletic career, will dominate. Of course, Couture has beaten the odds before, but the math is worse today than ever. I hope Randy goes wild and proves me completely wrong, but my prediction is Lesnar by early stoppage.
Posted by: Phil Caron | November 15, 2008 9:43 AM