Eating crow on the Fedor pick
I am officially here to eat crow on my prediction that Fedor Emelianenko would lose to Tim Sylvia. Fedor was able to win the fight in less than a minute. It’s clear that he’s still the absolute monster fans remember him as. This is my mea culpa for suggesting he may be washed. It’s clear he hasn’t lost a step and now the UFC has a serious problem with its heavyweight division.
The top heavyweight fighter (Fedor) isn’t theirs and another top heavyweight (Randy Couture) is in litigation with the UFC to be released from his contract. It doesn’t help that other top 10 heavyweights, like Andrei Arlovski and Sylvia, aren’t among the current UFC HW-division ranks either. The UFC has some exciting prospects at the heavyweight level, but they have to sign some of the top fighters if they want to keep the division relevant.
Now, a few housekeeping notes. First, the way the comments work -- I need to approve each one individually before they go up. I was traveling this weekend so I wasn’t able to get to many posts as quickly as I usually do. If you post a comment and don’t see it up right away, this is why. I approve nearly everything, as long as it’s profanity-free.
Next, I am aware that Tim Sylvia did not win. I deserve the laughs and ridicule for taking Sylvia. Fire away. Of course, I did say before the fight that the allure of this matchup was whether or not Fedor was still the same fighter he used to be. I’ve seen him fight before in Pride and I’ve seen some film of his fights, so it wasn’t like I was unaware of how good he was. I simply believed he wasn’t the same fighter. There is no debate, however, about the level of competition Fedor fought in the past 18-24 months. Sylvia has been fighting much better fighters. I thought that would matter but, alas, I was wrong. Dead wrong.
Of course, so was everyone who picked Quinton Jackson to stomp Forrest Griffin. I wasn’t one of them. I picked Griffin. Everyone who thought Matt Hughes would get back in the win column by overpowering Thiago Alves was wrong. I had Alves. Everyone who thought Anderson Silva would struggle with James Irvin -- also wrong. I had Silva with a first-round knockout.
In fact, my main event predictions have been pretty solid since I started them and I have a hard time believing there are too many people out there who were 4-4 in those fights. I’m certain that the small sample size is the biggest factor in my high prediction percentage, but I will still be right more than I’m wrong.
Now, I probably will never be as wrong as I was with my prediction for the Affliction: Banned main event. Fedor is one of the best fighters on the planet and he proved he’s still the top heavyweight in the world. And I’m always going to be the clown that said he was washed up and that Tim Sylvia would outlast him.






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Comments
Picking Sylvia was borderline lunacy. He isnt in the same league as Fedor so Fedor could have been riddled with bullets before the fight and still handed Tim his own ass. There might be someone out there that can top Fedor (I highly doubt it) but it certainly wasnt going to come from a slow stand up fighter.
You should check out Fedor in action. I think most of his fights are on youtube. He has a flawless record against the best fighters in the world. (no the cut was not a loss) That alone is enough reason to give him the benefit of the doubt.
His next two fights will probably be couture and arlovski. Fedor will dominate both of them as well. I think the best shot for him to lose comes from another crocop or nog match.
Posted by: craig | July 20, 2008 9:57 PM
your comments about fedor and his opposition ignored his promotion going out of business, his talks with ufc burning out, and his waiting for randy's situation to figure itself out...you took very little time to analyze the situation and instead followed the dana white logic that permeates the net...you really have no credibility with me as an mma expert or legitimate journalist
Posted by: romano | July 20, 2008 10:22 PM
Oh well, Guess you got zulu'd just like your man Tim Sylvia.
Posted by: John | July 20, 2008 10:46 PM
Romano,
I wasn't ignoring that fact, It's not like my rationale was that Fedor wasn't fighting anyone because he was scared. I was well aware of the circumstances surrounding him and his dislike of the way the UFC approached him.
That doesn't change the fact that he didn't get to face high-level competition for almost two years (longer in some eyes). I figured he would have to deal with some rust in the fight. Obviously, he did not.
Posted by: Mark Chalifoux | July 20, 2008 11:09 PM
Craig,
I disagree. I wasn't the only one questioning what level Fedor would be competing at in the fight. We've seen upsets comparable to what it would've been if Sylvia had won the fight.
I agree on his next two fights. I don't think Couture or Arlovski will fare much better than Sylvia did.
Posted by: Mark Chalifoux | July 20, 2008 11:13 PM
Much appreciated Chalifoux. "Fedor is one of the best fighters on the planet" is still an understatement though. In an open weight class, no fighter in the world could beat Emelianenko. He is the greatest mma fighter of all time.
Posted by: jason | July 20, 2008 11:13 PM
Mark read your blog &feel the same way you do.I wagered on TIM (3/1 dog) but broke even because took VAI over JOSE. This fight was similar to that fight in that the smaller man was just to fast.
Posted by: Les | July 21, 2008 12:38 AM
Since 2003, Fedor's had 18 fights, five have gone more than one round, with three decisions, two with Noguiera and one with Cro-Cop.
Since 2003, Sylvia has been defeated five times, all but one by KO or submission.
I agree you weren't the only person who hasn't followed MMA long enough, or enough outside the UFC hype machine to think Sylvia had a chance.
At his best, Sylvia never dominated on the level Fedor has dominated, and overall throughout their careers, Fedor has faced more top competition.
Despite the level of competition Fedor has faced in MMA the last couple years (as you agree through no fault of his own), he was facing top competition in World Sambo Championships.
Of the martial arts, its one of the, if not the most comparable to MMA.
Outside of MMA, Sylvia participates in no comparable level of martial arts competition.
Posted by: Jeff | July 21, 2008 12:47 AM
Mark, I'm not going to be the one to beat you while you are down. You are totally right that Fedor hasn't been fighting the same level of competitors for the past couple years that Sylvia has. I also expected Sylvia to put up much more resistance. Fedor never gave him a chance, though. Sylvia is a great fighter. Period. The fact that Fedor handled him so easily is truly amazing! I did expect Fedor to win, but not like that. WOW!! Also, Fedor did not look all that great against Mark Hunt (although I think they said he had a broken foot). The bottom line: Don't feel bad. We all make mistakes, dude. Fedor probabaly will lose some day. Maybe when he's 50 years old :)
Posted by: Roger Earl | July 21, 2008 12:56 AM
hahaha...how could anyone pick sylvia over fedor man! i agree with craig, i think that the only ones that could pose a threat to fedor are big nog and cro cop. i guess arlovski would be a bit of a challenge but i still think fedor will kick arlovski's ass. and no one can count barnett out too...i think they should let barnett face fedor next...i really want to see that match up!
Posted by: mark lapena | July 21, 2008 1:20 AM
Exactly. He's not one of the best fighters on the planet, he's the BEST FIGHTER OF ALL TIME. PERIOD. END OF DISCUSSION.
Posted by: RICO | July 21, 2008 1:21 AM
I can't blame you for picking Tim because I really thought he would at least pose a few problems during the fight.
However, I think that your statement that "he (Fedor) might as well be fighting people in backyards on YouTube at this point" was unnecessary and disrespectful both to the fighter and his fans. The net is a place where you can express your opinions freely, but if you do it in a disrespectful way, people will think less of you, whether you are wrong or right (especially if you are wrong!).
Posted by: Greg | July 21, 2008 1:23 AM
Sylvia over Fedor? Are you smoking crack or did you just never bother to watch all of Fedor's Pride fights? You're a complete idiot and have lost all your credibility.
Posted by: Steve | July 21, 2008 1:58 AM
Hey man. Not only were you wrong but you didn't realize that Fedor is BY FAR the best fighter in the world now and in the history of fighting including boxing. Rampage was asked a few months ago who was the best and he said Fedor. Any true fighter realizes that Fedor is the best. No offense dude, but I see a lot of people who are brainwashed by the American media to believe Fedor isn't that great. Fedor is just humble, something many people today don't value, particularly the media. The media hypes the big talkers and showmen, but if you follow the real warriors, they are the biggest talkers.
Posted by: Dude | July 21, 2008 3:30 AM
Props for eating the crow. I didn't agree with the reasoning behind your Silva pick, but hey, we are all entitled to an opinion. Still probably the best fighter.........ever.
Posted by: Anonymous | July 21, 2008 4:08 AM
Nice to see yu man up and accept some well deserved ribbing with humility. The lesson you should walk away from is to never bet against Fedor. He always has a plan to win. He is 31 (only 9 days older than me) and at the top of his game. He has a long way to go before being "washed up".
Posted by: Alllucky7 | July 21, 2008 4:31 AM
If you were always right in your predictions you wouldnt be a columnist, you would be a matchmaker for an organization!
Your prediction of Fedor and Tim's fight was a bit far fetched in the sense that it was based on educated speculation and assumption. Assumption is the mother of all f-ups. Whats important now for you is to not make the same mistake twice. Whats important for us readers is to move on and look forward to the next matchup.
My next matchup picks:
Paul Buentello VS Josh Barnett
If Randy cannot fight Fedor before the end of the year, I would pay a plane ticket to see Andrei Arlovski take a swing at Fedor. He does have a win over Vladimir Matyushenko in 2003 which reminds me of the fight we just saw.
Anyways, this was a great weekend.
Nic.
Posted by: Nicolas | July 21, 2008 4:59 AM
I agreed with your picks, but I too, alas, am eating crow this fine morn.
I am, however, surprised by all the hate.
It's not like there have been any upsets lately...hmmm...no, not a one.
Posted by: Ryan | July 21, 2008 8:13 AM
"Now, I probably will never be as wrong as I was with my prediction for the Affliction: Banned main event."
Oh, I'm sure you'll be able to find a way. Don't sell yourself short.
Posted by: Leslie | July 21, 2008 9:34 AM
Don't you love it when guys like these get on, AFTER the fight is over, to talk about how great their own picks are?
Talk your smack before the fights, not after.
PEACE
RC
www.stonecoldbillyray.com
fighting picking & betting competition site
Posted by: The Hunter | July 21, 2008 10:36 AM
Mark I wouldn't feel bad about feeling the numbers pointed towards Sylvia. Most people mistakenly gauge a fighter's attributes on how well known their opponents are.
Fedor has gained a reputation as the #1 fighter in the world with almost no exposure in the US. The level of competition is completely up to par. He competes in world class Sambo and has fights with other monsters over seas. Also don't forget he destroyed Linland last year.
You have to realize that the UFC doesn't pick fighters soley on ability, it's really about will they draw.(looks/personality)
HOWEVER, this isn't the case with Tim Sylvia. He just got caught by a big surge from the #1 fighter in the world. He's a better fighter today for what happened to him over the weekend.(just ask Chris Leben what getting destroyed can do to give you perspective)
Personally I feel like seeing Anderson Silva vs. Fedor Emelianenko
Posted by: Jerry Odom | July 21, 2008 10:40 AM
Rough one Mark. Have you only been watching or covering MMA since UFC 68? Which was only about 1 1/2 years ago if my memory serves me correctly at the rate they pump out PPV's now a days. Sylvia lost in that event to Couture I think. Fedor has been around for a long time and has won many combat Sambo titles. A lot of his contract arguments are due to promoters "like dana white" not wanting him to fight Sambo while under contract with them. Combat Sambo competitors are brutal opponents with as much mat time and training as any MMA competitor. It just doesn't get much airtime as it's not very popular here in the states. I'm a pedestrian, i don't train to fight, i don't consider myself a pundit on the sport, i don't ascertain i could last 5 seconds in the ring with any of these guys, but i've been watching this sport since Ken shamrock dawned the red trunks against gracie in UFC 1. These guys are on a different level than normal humans. There's so many guys that are great fighters that any man, even Fedor can get beat on a certain night. I've seen everyone of his fights and it doesn't appear that it will happen anytime soon. I never thought Tim Sylvia stood a chance personally after seeing what Fedor did to Hong-Man Choi recently, a man 7'2" tall and 350lbs and probably as fast as Tim respectively. Do your research always in this sport before you count a guy out Mark, Fedor has beaten decisively now 4 UFC champions in his career be it over the weekend or 3-5 years ago, Big Nog, Mark Coleman, and Kevin Randleman being the others, and i may be missing a few. He's #1 no question and only 31 years old, he'll be around a long time even if he gets beat in the near future.
Posted by: Bob Gettis | July 21, 2008 2:30 PM
I really am not sure you should be listing your family's Christmas newsletter in your bio as previous experience.
Posted by: Joe | July 21, 2008 4:56 PM
Mark:
It's not that you were wrong. It's that you didn't provide a single, valid argument for your upset pick of Sylvia over Fedor. You didn't discuss any possible weaknesses in Fedor's game that Sylvia might have exploited. You didn't even make a case for Tim being effective with Russian Samboists like Arlovski (not convincing, but at least it would have shown rudimentary analysis on your part).
Taking the underdog when you can't argue your position in-depth smacks of an attention-getting ploy. It's OK if you're just an anonymous poster on a forum; but if you are now running a sports blog, you are going to be held to a higher standard. My suggestion for your future picks is that you develop your arguments more and discuss the fighters' styles, strengths and weaknesses---especially when you are making risky picks.
We can chalk this one up to being a novice. Maybe I'll check back in a few months and see if you've developed as a writer. Good luck.
Posted by: Fred | July 21, 2008 9:57 PM
Best of all time? Give me a break. Best HW maybe, but that can't be certain until he fights and beats Couture, Arlovski, and Barnett. People who are Fedor fans just talk so much smack because it makes them feel special because they know that not many Americans know about Fedor so they feel the have some inside scoop on a guy no one knows about and that makes them feel somewhat superior in MMA knowledge. Well this is coming from a guy who has seen every Fedor fight and has been following MMA just as long as anyone else, and Fedor may be the best HW, but the best of all time? not a chance. How can this guy be the best of all time when he has been dominating easily the weakest weight class in all of MMA? Add to that the fact that besides beating big Nog and an overated Cro Cop he has made his career fighting washed up UFC fighters and low class Japanese fighters. I also find it amusing that the same "Hardcore MMA Fans" who have talked about what a disgrace Tim Sylvia is(which I agree with) for years, now are making it like Fedor just dismantled some legendary opponent in 36 seconds. It is funny how you "MMA insiders" call some one trash when it is convenient, but then turn around and make it like this guy was the real deal when it benefits your man. In closing just because people like UFC better doesn't mean they don't know MMA. It is simply that, besides a few exceptions, the best fighters in the world fight in the UFC HANDS DOWN. So if it makes you feel special knowledge wise to cling to the fantasy that this one guy is unbeatable and you feel special because not many people have seen him, then go ahead, do whatever helps you sleep at night. Me personally, I enjoy watching the actual best fighters whether they are my favorite fighters or not and regardless if everyone knows them or only limited fans have seen them.
Posted by: Russ Watson | July 26, 2008 4:34 PM
OK, you have a valid point although flawed. The UFC has the best fighters that Dana can sign and control. That is a major factor in the fight game. Fedor has beat everyone put infront of him, you can't falt him for not facing the so called best. But look at the UFC HW's, Fedor beat the current interum champ twice, he has beat the former champ in 36 seconds, does this not count in your evaluation? Yes he hasn't faced all the top fighters, but who has? UFC only allows fights with UFC fighters, so no one in the UFC can be considered the best, so who are we talking about here. A fighter is best of all time in an opinion, that's it. There is no way of putting the claim to the test, but in dominance of their division, there is no comparison. People talk of Silva as best pound for pound, but he has loses, even bad ones. Fedor has owned the MMA world as welll as the Sambo world, the latter is a point missed by many people. He IS the best of all time, in this readers opinion. It's not right or wrong, it's an opinion, and as more people get to see him face the top 10 in the sport, as Affliction is affording him, more and more will feel the same. Although there will be the UFC zealots who will always say he hasn't faced the best because he doesn't fight in the UFC. Thank Dana for that.
Posted by: Div | August 17, 2008 12:59 PM