As 2007 has shown us, picking the winners of fights in UFC is more difficult than ever.  While the main event upsets have gotten the most attention, is it possible that fights up and down the ranks are just as difficult to predict?

My good friend Dex has been testing this theory for the last couple of domestic UFC cards (UFC 69 and UFC 71.)  A long-time fan of UFC (as well as MMA in general), Dex has been known to wager a little dough on fights.  Well, over time he came to the conclusion that there is no science to picking UFC fights.  No matter how much he broke fights down, he couldn't come up with a reliable system.

So, did Dex stop betting on these cards?  No.  He went simple.  Starting with UFC 69, Dex decided to pick only underdogs in a given fight card.  Why?  If we suppose a given fight is really a 50-50 proposition (no better than a coin flip), the way to make more money over the long haul is to choose underdogs because underdogs pay more (by definition.)  Even if Dex only picks half the fights correctly, he still comes out ahead.

Dex enjoyed betting success at UFC 69 and went to Vegas this past weekend to attend UFC 71.  He bet on seven fights on the UFC 71 card and chose the underdog in every one.

So, how did Dex do?  Let's break down his night on a fight-by-fight basis (we'll look at who Dex picked, what he bet was, what the odds were, and how much money he won on or lost each bet):

Picked Carmelo Marrero        bet $20    odds: +205     lost $20
Picked Jeremy Stephens       bet $20    odds: +250     lost  $20
Picked Kalib Starnes               bet $40    odds: +185     won $74
Picked Houston Alexander    bet $20    odds: +350     won $70
Picked Terry Martin                 bet $50    odds: +135     won $67.50
Picked Josh Burkman             bet $50    odds: +200      lost $50
Picked Quinton Jackson         bet $70    odds: +140     won $98

Dex went 4-3 picking the underdogs.  His net profit for the night was a cool $219.50.  At 10 p.m. on a Saturday night in Vegas this was probably just enough money to get him a cab ride back to his hotel room one mile away from the MGM Grand Garden Arena.  Oh well, as UFC has taught us, you can't win them all...