It’s been over a week since we discussed the future of an Orioles prospect, so today seems like a good time to hold another debate.

Last Tuesday, we talked about infielder Ryan Adams. Most readers agreed that the 21-year-old second baseman would never play in the major leagues if he is unable to reduce the amount of errors.

Some people, however, think the defensive miscues will decrease as Adams climbs through the Orioles’ minor league system because more repetitions will help to improve his skills. I believe that’s a valid observation, but Adams will need to work hard on his defense in order to win a permanent role in the majors.

Speaking of above-average hitters who struggle defensively, let’s ponder the future of Tyler Henson today. The Orioles recently announced the decision to move 2006 first-round pick Bill Rowell to right field for the upcoming season, which clears space for Henson to take over third base for the Single-A Frederick Keys.

Henson batted .265 with 11 home runs and 62 RBIs in 127 games for the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds last season. The 21-year-old third baseman collected 20 stolen bases and 25 doubles for the Shorebirds.

While he showed potential to become a power hitter in Delmarva, the 6-foot-1, 190-pound infielder committed 29 errors at third base for the Shorebirds. Like Adams, Henson will need to cut down on the errors as he climbs through the organization if he hopes to earn a spot with the Orioles in the future.

Henson will also need to improve his plate discipline. The Orioles’ fifth-round selection in the 2006 MLB draft struck out 121 times in 2008, and he only earned 25 walks during the entire season. Henson improved dramatically in this category while playing for the West Oahu CaneFires in Hawaii Winter Baseball. Remarkably, he led the league with 25 walks in 35 games for the CaneFires.

Henson hit .275 with five home runs and 32 RBIs while splitting the 2007 season between the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds and Frederick. He batted .289 with 18 doubles, four triples, five home runs, 31 RBIs and 20 stolen bases in 67 games for the IronBirds. In six games with the Keys at the end of the season, Henson was 1-for-17 with one RBI.

Like I said above, look for Henson to be the everyday third baseman in Frederick this season. I have a feeling that he is headed for a breakout year, so I predict Henson will hit around .275 with 15-20 home runs and 70-80 RBIs. The organization seems to appreciate his speed, so expect 20-30 stolen bases from Henson in 2009. He also will be among the leaders in the Carolina League in doubles, in my opinion.

What are your thoughts about Henson? Do you think he’ll make progress with his defense and plate discipline in 2009? What are your statistical expectations for Henson this season?

On a related note, how do you feel about the Orioles’ decision to move Rowell to the outfield? With Nick Markakis entrenched in right field for the Orioles, does it surprise you that the organization didn’t move Rowell to another position?

Let me hear your thoughts about both topics.

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Ryan Adams
• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Jason Berken
• Zach Britton
• Brandon Erbe
• David Hernandez
• Caleb Joseph
• Brian Matusz
• Greg Miclat
• Kam Mickolio
• Lou Montanez
• Troy Patton
• Hayden Penn
• Wilfrido Perez
• Nolan Reimold
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters
• Rick Zagone

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 1:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (11)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Judging by the comments about catcher Caleb Joseph on last week’s entry, a lot of Orioles fans would be happy to have him as the backup to Matt Wieters for several years.

That idea also sounds good to me, but there are several things working against him at this point.

First, he hasn’t played above the short-season Single-A level so far in his career. Joseph will gain a little bit more publicity if he puts up similar or better numbers in a full-season league in 2009. Also, the 22-year-old catcher could be traded if he continues to advance through the Orioles’ minor league system and gains the attention of other organizations. Finally, as several readers mentioned, Joseph could be moved to first base or another position.

Overall, the 2009 season should show fans what to expect from Joseph in the future.

In the comments section on the entry about Joseph, the reader Chris S asked if the next “Predict the future” could be about infielder Ryan Adams. As I told Chris in the return e-mail, Adams was literally the next person on my list. So, let’s talk about him today.

Adams, who will turn 22 in April, played in 119 games for the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds in 2008.

Offensively, Adams emerged as a legitimate prospect while playing for the Shorebirds. He hit .308 with 11 home runs and 57 RBIs. Adams also had 26 doubles, five triples, 68 runs and 12 stolen bases for Delmarva. The biggest offensive drawback for Adams is that he struck out 109 times.

While the strikeouts could become a problem as he advances through the organization, Adams’ biggest weakness was his defense. The 6-foot, 195-pound infielder committed 52 errors last season, including a South Atlantic League record for defensive miscues by a second baseman (46). He also made five errors in seven games at shortstop and one at third base.

Adams batted .236 with three home runs and 22 RBIs in 67 games for the Aberdeen IronBirds in 2007. He had 10 doubles, eight stolen bases and 29 runs. Adams, who was the Orioles’ second-round pick in the 2006 MLB draft, committed 20 errors for the IronBirds.

While splitting the 2006 season between the IronBirds and rookie-level Bluefield Orioles, Adams hit .263 with three home runs and 12 RBIs in 40 games. He made nine defensive miscues.

Obviously, Adams needs to get better with his defense in 2009. The good news is that there’s plenty of room for improvement. Since he’s shown the ability to shine offensively, it would be better for Adams to focus on his defense this season.

With that said, I think Adams’ offensive numbers might dip a little bit during the upcoming season. He will likely commit fewer errors, which is a good exchange that could ultimately help the organization more than the impact of his offensive statistics.

During the 2009 season, Adams will probably play for the Single-A Frederick Keys. Look for him to hit around .290 with about 10 stolen bases and 65 runs scored. Adams will probably have 20-25 doubles and 45-50 RBIs.

What are your expectations for Adams in 2009? I’m sure a lot of people would like to see him cut down on the errors, but do you think it will affect his offense?

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Jason Berken
• Zach Britton
• Brandon Erbe
• David Hernandez
• Caleb Joseph
• Brian Matusz
• Greg Miclat
• Kam Mickolio
• Lou Montanez
• Troy Patton
• Hayden Penn
• Wilfrido Perez
• Nolan Reimold
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters
• Rick Zagone

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 12:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Not many people commented on the entry about left-handed pitcher Zach Britton, so check it out and offer your thoughts when you get a chance.

The few readers who participated in the discussion about the 21-year-old starting pitcher believe he will continue to show improvement during the 2009 season. Everyone mentioned that a surplus of starters in the Orioles’ minor league system could hurt Britton’s chances to make it to the major leagues, but they noted that it’s good for the organization as a whole.

While I agree that there are several pitchers in front of Britton in the minor leagues at this point, he has the ability to climb the list in the future. Britton is definitely an under-the-radar type who could catapult into the top level of the organization’s pitching depth with another strong performance in 2009.

Like I said in the previous entry, look for the 6-foot-2, 172-pound pitcher to increase the strikeouts this season and earn 10-15 wins. He’s going to make people notice his ability with his performance on the field.

While Orioles prospect Matt Wieters is earning all of the publicity – including the designation of Baseball America’s No. 1 prospect for 2009 – fans should keep an eye on another catcher at the lower levels of the organization.

Caleb Joseph, who the Orioles selected in the seventh round of last year’s MLB draft, played in 63 games for the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds in 2008. The 22-year-old catcher hit .261 with eight home runs and 34 RBIs. Joseph was tied for fifth in the New York-Penn League with 19 doubles.

The biggest criticism of Joseph’s performance with the IronBirds is probably his plate discipline. The 6-foot-3, 180-pound catcher had 56 strikeouts and 15 walks during the 2008 season. If Joseph can work the count and cut down on the strikeouts, the batting average should climb to a higher level in the future.

Prior to being drafted by the Orioles, Joseph played for three seasons at Lipscomb University in Tennessee. He struggled during his first season for the Bisons, hitting .265 with no home runs and 22 RBIs in 45 games.

In his final two years, however, Joseph showed tremendous improvement.

He batted .335 with 25 doubles, eight home runs and 48 RBIs in 56 games during the 2007 season. Joseph also had 11 stolen bases that year, and he was only caught stealing twice.

In his final season at Lipscomb, Joseph emerged as a power hitter and led the Bisons to the Atlantic Sun championship. He batted .342 with 17 home runs and 61 RBIs in 63 games. Joseph also had 20 doubles, and he led the conference in total bases (160). He was selected as the Most Valuable Player of the postseason tournament after hitting .407 with two home runs, seven RBIs, 10 runs scored and three stolen bases in five games.

Defensively, Joseph has shown that he’s capable of being an above-average catcher. He threw out 29 of 67 (43%) base runners attempting to steal in 2008 with the IronBirds. It’s possible that Joseph could switch positions in the future, particularly if Wieters locks up the position with the Orioles as expected, but that shouldn’t happen anytime soon.

It’s probably logical for Joseph to start the season with the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds, but don’t be surprised if he plays with the Single-A Frederick Keys from the beginning. He’s a little bit older than the typical low-level players, so it will be good to move him along quickly if he can handle it.

Overall, I’d expect Joseph to hit a lot of doubles again in 2009. His batting average, home runs and RBIs will also improve this season, but the telling sign will be what happens to his strikeouts and walks. Joseph needs to work on the plate discipline in order to climb through the Orioles’ minor league system.

What are your thoughts on Joseph’s progress? Since Wieters is expected to emerge in the major leagues soon, should the Orioles consider a position switch for Joseph as soon as possible? Is it better to let Joseph continue working as a catcher with the hope that he succeeds, which would give the organization a surplus at another position?

Let me hear your answers to the above questions, as well as any other predictions you have about Joseph’s future in the organization.

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Jason Berken
• Zach Britton
• Brandon Erbe
• David Hernandez
• Brian Matusz
• Greg Miclat
• Kam Mickolio
• Lou Montanez
• Troy Patton
• Hayden Penn
• Wilfrido Perez
• Nolan Reimold
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters
• Rick Zagone

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 12:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (11)
Categories: Predict the future
        

When reading through the comments from last week’s post about outfielder Nolan Reimold, I noticed that a lot of people believe the Orioles have two options with his future – switch him to another position or trade him.

If Felix Pie has a good season in 2009, the Orioles will have long-term solutions at each of the three outfield positions. I realize that there’s a possibility that Pie won’t adapt to an everyday role, but he’s definitely ahead of Reimold in the pecking order at this point.

So, logically, the Orioles could shift Reimold to first base in order to find a place for him in the major leagues. He’s never played that position in his professional career, however, so it’s probably not the best idea to rely on him to play there with the Orioles.

A trade would make sense, if the Orioles could get solid value in return, but it would be best for the team to keep their surplus of outfielders. Reimold will only be a phone call away with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides in case someone gets injured. That’s the smart thing to do, in my opinion.

For today’s discussion, I want to talk about starting pitcher Zach Britton.

The Orioles selected the 21-year-old left-hander in the third round of the 2006 MLB draft. Britton played high school baseball in Weatherford, Texas, and elected to sign with the Orioles instead of accepting a scholarship to play in college at Texas A&M.

In his first professional season, Britton was 0-4 with a 5.29 ERA in 11 starts for the rookie-level Bluefield Orioles in 2006. The 6-foot-2, 172-pound pitcher had 21 strikeouts and 20 walks in 34 innings.

Britton was 6-4 with a 3.68 ERA in 15 starts for the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds during the 2007 season. In 63 2/3 innings, he issued 22 walks and had 45 strikeouts. Britton only surrendered one home run during his time with the IronBirds.

The biggest improvement for Britton occurred last season while he was pitching for the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds. He finished 12-7 with a 3.12 ERA and one complete game in 27 starts. Britton had 114 strikeouts and 49 walks in 147 1/3 innings for the Shorebirds.

With the abundance of pitchers above him in the Orioles’ minor league system, it’s easy for Britton to be overshadowed. He has quietly improved each year, however, so it’s important for Orioles fans to keep an eye on him during the upcoming season. Britton will probably start with the Single-A Frederick Keys in 2009.

If he pitches well for the Keys at the beginning of the season, I think he might earn a promotion to the Double-A Bowie Baysox sometime in the middle of the year. Look for him to have a 3.25 ERA and 10-15 wins during the 2009 season. Although he hasn’t collected an overwhelming number of strikeouts so far in his career, I think Britton will surprise a lot of people and average about one strikeout per inning in 2009.

What are your expectations for Britton during the upcoming season? Do you think he’ll show improvement again, or will he take a step back in 2009? Among the pitching prospects in the Orioles’ minor league system, where would you rank Britton?

Feel free to list projections for the rest of his career, including how you believe Britton will perform in the major leagues. I’m interested to see what everyone thinks.

By the way, has anyone attended spring training? Feel free to upload your photographs of your encounters with the Orioles to the Facebook fan page for O’s on Deck, as well as the user-generated content photo gallery on baltimoresun.com.

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Jason Berken
• Brandon Erbe
• David Hernandez
• Brian Matusz
• Greg Miclat
• Kam Mickolio
• Lou Montanez
• Troy Patton
• Hayden Penn
• Wilfrido Perez
• Nolan Reimold
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters
• Rick Zagone

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Judging by the input from readers about relief pitcher Wilfrido Perez, it seems like he has gained the attention of a lot of people during his four seasons in the Orioles’ minor league system.

Mostly everyone agreed that Perez seems to be a logical choice for a left-handed specialist in the future, and some people believe he could be ready for the major leagues by the end of the upcoming season.

I’d like to see how the 24-year-old reliever performs in spring training and during the beginning of the 2009 season before penciling him into the major leagues, but he’s definitely earned some respect with his impressive statistics so far in his career.

When thinking about which player we could talk about during today’s discussion, I realized that I have completely overlooked Orioles prospect Nolan Reimold to this point in the “Predict the future” series.

I couldn’t help but realize the irony because the Orioles have seemingly done the same thing to the 25-year-old outfielder on a couple different occasions in his brief career.

When they needed to bring up an outfielder last season, the Orioles promoted Lou Montanez and left Reimold with the Double-A Bowie Baysox. I know Montanez was on his way to winning the Triple Crown in the Eastern League, but Reimold is regarded as a higher prospect and he was quietly putting together his best professional season.

Reimold, who the Orioles selected in the second round of the 2005 MLB draft, hit .284 with 25 home runs and 84 RBIs last season for Bowie. He was tied for second in the league in home runs, second in runs scored (87), fifth in RBIs and tied for sixth in hits (144). Reimold had 82 strikeouts and 63 walks in 139 games for the Baysox.

When it looked like the 6-foot-4, 207-pound outfielder might get an opportunity to compete for a position in the major leagues in 2009, the Orioles traded for Felix Pie from the Chicago Cubs. It looks like Pie will be given a chance to become the starting left fielder for the Orioles, and Reimold seems destined to start the season with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides.

Although Reimold has solid minor league statistics, he’s struggled to stay healthy on a consistent basis. Foot, back and oblique injuries have bothered Reimold during his time in the Orioles’ minor league system, but he enjoyed a relatively pain-free season in 2008.

In four seasons in the organization, Reimold is batting .278 with 70 home runs and 242 RBIs. He hit .306 with 11 home runs and 34 RBIs in 50 games for the Baysox during the 2007 season, despite being limited because of an oblique injury. Reimold had 19 home runs in 2006 with the Single-A Frederick Keys, and he hit 15 home runs during the 2005 season while splitting time between the Keys and short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds.

It looks like Reimold will begin the 2009 season with the Tides, but I don’t think he is destined to stay in Norfolk for the entire year. If Pie struggles in the major leagues and Reimold starts strong, the Orioles might consider a change.

Still, Montanez likely remains ahead of him in the list of promotions, so you might not see Reimold in the major leagues until 2010 at the earliest.

I expect Reimold to hit around .290 with 15-20 home runs and 80-90 RBIs for the Tides. He’ll also show good plate discipline and be among the leaders in the International League in walks. Finally, and perhaps the most important prediction, Reimold will remain healthy and prove to the Orioles that he’s ready to earn a role in the major leagues.

What does everyone think about Reimold? Instead of acquiring Pie, should the Orioles have given Reimold a chance to earn the starting position in left field?

Do you think there’s a possibility that he might perform well enough in spring training to force the Orioles to keep him in the major leagues? Will he be promoted in the middle of the season?

I know there are a lot of strong opinions about Reimold, so let’s hear them.

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Jason Berken
• Brandon Erbe
• David Hernandez
• Brian Matusz
• Greg Miclat
• Kam Mickolio
• Lou Montanez
• Troy Patton
• Hayden Penn
• Wilfrido Perez
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters
• Rick Zagone

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 1:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (28)
Categories: Predict the future
        

One thing I learned from last week’s discussion about relief pitcher Kam Mickolio is that Orioles fans are cautiously optimistic about his future. The general sentiment among readers was that the 6-foot-9, 255-pound right-hander could become the team’s closer eventually, but he needs to improve his control.

While I agree that Mickolio isn’t known for his accuracy, he probably only needs to slightly lower the amount of walks that he allows in order to be a successful reliever in the major leagues. Throw in the fact that Mickolio doesn’t allow a lot of home runs – six total in 144 minor league innings – and it only seems like a matter of time before he’s pitching at Camden Yards on a regular basis.

His size and overpowering fastball seem to make the 24-year-old reliever a logical fit for the majors, but the Orioles have the luxury to take it slow with Mickolio because the organization currently has a surplus of late-inning relief pitchers.

Let’s talk about another relief pitcher who is considered a long shot to make the Opening Day roster – left-hander Wilfrido Perez.

The 24-year-old reliever split the 2008 season between the Single-A Frederick Keys and Double-A Bowie Baysox.

Perez was 2-4 with a 2.88 ERA and two saves in 26 appearances for the Keys before being promoted in July. He had 69 strikeouts and 30 walks in 56 1/3 innings in Single-A. In 16 appearances for the Baysox, Perez had a 2.31 ERA and one save. He struck out 23 hitters and issued eight walks in 23 1/3 innings for Bowie.

His best season was in 2007 with the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds, when Perez was 5-3 with a 1.67 ERA and five saves in 27 games (eight starts). The 6-foot, 140-pound pitcher had 108 strikeouts in 81 innings for the Shorebirds. As a starting pitcher for Delmarva, Perez was 2-0 with a 0.28 ERA in 32 2/3 innings.

Tendinitis in his throwing shoulder limited Perez to seven games (five starts) for the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds in 2006. He was 1-1 with a 3.28 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 25 innings. During the 2005 season, Perez was 3-4 with a 3.26 ERA in 12 starts for the rookie-level Bluefield Orioles. He was third in the Appalachian League with 75 strikeouts in 58 innings.

In four minor league seasons, Perez is 10-11 with a 2.55 ERA and eight saves. He has 306 strikeouts and 105 walks in 243 2/3 innings.

His plans to make the team out of spring training got off to a rough start Sunday, when he left the workout early because of dehydration. It looks like Perez will be fine, but you still have to believe he’s going to start in the minor leagues in 2009.

Perez represents an intriguing option as a left-handed reliever in the future. The strikeout numbers are very promising, especially for someone who is extremely small in size. In my opinion, he’ll pitch for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides during the 2009 season. If he has another quality season in the minor leagues, look for Perez to be a strong candidate for the bullpen in 2010 and beyond.

I know some Orioles fans would probably like for Perez to replace Jamie Walker in the bullpen this season, but it’s good to take it slow and give Perez more experience. With that said, he could be promoted in the middle of the season if he is pitching well and Walker doesn’t recover from his troubles in 2008.

What do you think about Perez? With his success in limited action as a starting pitcher in the minors, do you hope the Orioles continue to use him in that role? Is he going to be the Orioles’ prototypical left-handed reliever for several seasons?

By the way, I’d like to offer a special thanks to Blaine from the O’s on Deck Facebook fan page for suggesting that we talk about Perez in today’s entry. If you’re not already a member, sign up for the page and join the conversation.

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Jason Berken
• Brandon Erbe
• David Hernandez
• Brian Matusz
• Greg Miclat
• Kam Mickolio
• Lou Montanez
• Troy Patton
• Hayden Penn
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters
• Rick Zagone

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 12:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (9)
Categories: Predict the future
        

As several readers mentioned in yesterday’s discussion, they think minor league infielder Greg Miclat could become the long-term replacement for Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts. Other people believe the team should keep Miclat at shortstop for as long as possible, and hope that he’s able to develop into a starter at the position in the majors.

While I agree it’s possible for Miclat to replace Roberts eventually, I wasn’t suggesting with my predictions that is ultimately what should happen. It’s a great idea, in my opinion, to continue using Miclat as a shortstop as he progresses through the minor leagues. It is always possible that he can be switched to second base in the major leagues if he struggles defensively at shortstop, similar to what the Orioles did with Roberts.

Some people discussed Miclat’s shoulder injury that limited him during the 2008 season, but it’s believed that the 5-foot-9, 175-pound infielder is fully recovered and ready to go in 2009.

I wasn’t sure which player to talk about during today’s debate, so I asked my friend Dave, a lifelong Orioles fan, if he had any suggestions. He wants to know what everyone thinks about relief pitcher Kam Mickolio.

The Orioles acquired the 6-foot-9, 255-pound reliever from the Seattle Mariners in the February 2008 trade for left-handed pitcher Erik Bedard. In three minor league seasons, Mickolio is 9-5 with a 3.12 ERA and 10 saves in 98 appearances. So far, he has only allowed six home runs in 144 innings in the minors.

Mickolio made his major league debut for the Orioles on Aug. 20, 2008 against the Boston Red Sox. He allowed one run and three hits in one inning during the game, but he also collected two strikeouts. Overall, Mickolio was 0-1 with a 5.87 ERA in nine games for the Orioles. He had eight strikeouts and four walks in 7 2/3 innings.

Prior to his promotion, Mickolio split the 2008 season between the Double-A Bowie Baysox and the Triple-A Norfolk Tides.

The 24-year-old right-hander was 2-1 with a 4.70 ERA and one save in 28 games for the Baysox. He struck out 40 hitters and issued 22 walks in 38 1/3 innings.

Mickolio pitched much better during his stint with the Tides. He was 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and two saves in 17 games. The Mariners’ 18th-round selection in the 2006 MLB draft had 23 strikeouts and nine walks in 20 innings for Norfolk.

It’s probably best for Mickolio to begin the upcoming season at Norfolk, in my opinion, because he needs to work on his command. Still, there’s a possibility that Mickolio could make the Opening Day roster if he is able to dominate in spring training.

I think Mickolio will play for the Tides to start the season and be available as one of the first relievers to be promoted when the Orioles need someone. With his size, Mickolio might pitch his way into the closer role for the Orioles in the future. Let’s take it one step at a time, however, and hope he excels in middle relief during the 2009 season.

What are your predictions for Mickolio in 2009? Will he spend most of the season in the minor leagues, or do you think he’s going to have a role for the Orioles? Do you think Mickolio will be a closer in the future, or is he just another middle reliever?

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Jason Berken
• Brandon Erbe
• David Hernandez
• Brian Matusz
• Greg Miclat
• Lou Montanez
• Troy Patton
• Hayden Penn
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters
• Rick Zagone

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 1:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (7)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Earlier this week, we talked about left-handed pitcher Troy Patton. Most readers agreed that it is going to be difficult for the 6-foot-1, 185-pound starting pitcher to overcome the torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, but they still believe he'll have a future with the Orioles.

Like I said, Patton is going to have to prove he's healthy before I pencil him into the organization's long-term plans. As many people pointed out, the 23-year-old starting pitcher compiled solid numbers in the minor leagues before injuring his shoulder. If he's able to make a full recovery, Patton could wind up having the best career out of the five players acquired for shortstop Miguel Tejada in December 2007. Still, I wouldn't be counting on him as a major contributor at this point, especially with the abundance of pitching prospects in the upper levels of the Orioles' minor league system. With low expectations about his performance, it will be an added bonus if Patton excels.

As one reader mentioned, the lack of starting pitchers in the major leagues for the Orioles should be enough to force the organization to give Patton an opportunity. That's a good observation, but I think his health should be the team's top priority. It remains to be seen how the Orioles will deal with Patton, but I think it's best for the team to be cautious.

On the Facebook fan page for O's on Deck, one person said he'd like to see "Predict the future" features on L.J. Hoes, Xavier Avery and Greg Miclat. Since I think it's great to give the fans what they want, today's discussion will be about Miclat. We can talk about Hoes and Avery sometime soon, but I wanted to focus on Miclat today because I've seen him play in person. Remember, don't hesitate to facilitate discussion on the Facebook fan page because, like today, we can always continue that conversation as part of a blog entry.

When I first saw the 5-foot-9, 175-pound infielder play for the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds last season, my first reaction was to make a comparison to Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts. Many analysts and scouts have also made a similar connection between the two players, so I'm not alone in this observation. They are almost exactly the same size, and both players are switch-hitting middle infielders who are known for their speed. Like Roberts, a permanent shift from shortstop to second base could be in Miclat's future.

One advantage, however, that Roberts has over Miclat is power -- even if the Orioles second baseman isn't known for that characteristic. Miclat didn't hit any home runs in three seasons at the University of Virginia, and he failed to collect any in limited action as a member of the Orioles' minor league system in 2008.

While it's not a requirement to be able to hit home runs in order to have a career in the major leagues, it certainly would be nice for Miclat to build up his strength and add that element to his game. When I watched him with the IronBirds, the 21-year-old infielder showed the potential to be able to hit the ball effectively into the gaps. Miclat only collected two doubles for Aberdeen, but he hit 33 doubles in 168 career games in college.

With his speed -- 83 stolen bases in 97 attempts at Virginia -- Miclat will be able to take an extra base on a lot of hits, turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples.

Miclat hit .291 with six RBIs and nine runs scored in 16 games for Aberdeen last season. The Orioles' fifth-round pick in the 2008 MLB draft also had three stolen bases in five attempts for the IronBirds. He was 2-for-4 with an RBI and a run scored in one game for the rookie-level Bluefield Orioles before being promoted to Aberdeen.

Apparently, according to this article in The Free Lance-Star (Fredericksburg, Va.), Miclat is learning that it's not necessarily bad to play in the Orioles' minor league system.

Miclat will likely start the 2009 season in Single-A, but it's unclear if he'll be playing for the Delmarva Shorebirds or Frederick Keys. I think there's a greater chance that he'll begin the year with the Shorebirds, but the Orioles might choose to push him along quickly and assign him to Frederick. I'm not sure what the organization's plans are for Miclat, but it's probably best to let him work on a few things in Delmarva.

The Orioles will let Miclat play with the Shorebirds in 2009, in my opinion, similar to how they handled outfielder Matt Angle last season. Angle, who was selected in the seventh round of the 2007 MLB draft, hit .287 with four home runs and 35 RBIs in 126 games for Delmarva in 2008. Angle also had 22 doubles, 82 runs scored and 37 stolen bases as a member of the Shorebirds. In fact, I'm going to predict similar statistics for Miclat with Delmarva in 2009.

With that said, Miclat will turn 22 in July and he played for three years in the Atlantic Coast Conference, so the infielder already has more experience than a lot of other prospects in the South Atlantic League. It's a tough call on what is the best scenario to further Miclat's career with the Orioles.

How many people are familiar with Miclat? Do you think he'll eventually replace Roberts with the Orioles? Are you concerned that he seems to lack power, or does his speed and switch-hitting ability make up for it? Where do you think Miclat should play in 2009?

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Jason Berken
• Brandon Erbe
• David Hernandez
• Brian Matusz
• Lou Montanez
• Troy Patton
• Hayden Penn
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters
• Rick Zagone

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 6:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (10)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Last week, we discussed pitcher Rick Zagone, who pitched for the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds in 2008.

Mostly everyone agreed that the left-hander was impressive in his first professional season, but several readers think he needs to have success at higher levels in order to have a chance at contributing in the major leagues.

Since his numbers in college at Missouri were mediocre – and the New York-Penn League is probably a step back from the Big 12 Conference competition he faced with the Tigers – I agree that Zagone will need to put up similar numbers in 2009 in order to show that he’s worthy of being mentioned in the discussion with the rest of the pitching prospects.

With that said, I believe he’ll continue to succeed in the future. At worst, the 6-foot-4, 215-pound pitcher should be able to build a solid career as a situational reliever in the major leagues. Still, I think Zagone possesses the ability and deception – he hides the ball well during his delivery – that would allow him to become a dependable starter at the back of a team's rotation.

Let’s talk about another left-handed pitcher who is a big question mark heading into the upcoming season, although it is due to a different reason.

Troy Patton, who was acquired from the Houston Astros in the trade for shortstop Miguel Tejada in December 2007, is recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. The 6-foot-1, 185-pound starting pitcher missed all of last season due to the injury, but he’s expected to be ready for 2009.

Although he’ll compete for a spot in the major leagues, it’s probable that Patton will begin the year in the minors. This strategy seems like a good idea in order to ensure that Patton is completely healthy before putting him in a high-pressure environment.

Patton was 0-2 with a 3.55 ERA in three games (two starts) for the Astros at the end of the 2007 season. He had eight strikeouts and allowed three home runs in 12 2/3 innings for Houston. Patton was 10-8 with a 3.51 ERA while splitting time between the Double-A Corpus Christi Hooks and Triple-A Round Rock Express before the promotion.

In four minor league seasons, Patton is 18-16 with a 3.01 ERA. He has 396 strikeouts and 127 walks in 445 innings. The Astros’ ninth-round pick in the 2004 MLB draft struck out 132 hitters in 119 2/3 innings in 2005. Patton collected 139 strikeouts in 146 innings during the 2006 season, but he only managed 93 in 151 1/3 innings in 2007. It will be interesting to see how the shoulder surgery affects his strikeout totals this season.

Ideally, Patton will begin the season with the Double-A Bowie Baysox and – after he proves he’s healthy – move quickly to the Triple-A Norfolk Tides. The Orioles shouldn’t rush Patton, in my opinion, but he might pitch his way into the major leagues at some point during the 2009 season.

To say it’s difficult to recover from a major shoulder surgery would be an understatement, so it might be foolish to expect any contributions from Patton with the Orioles. I’d like to hope for the best, but he’ll have to prove to me that he’s completely healthy before I pencil him into the Orioles’ long-term future.

What are your predictions for Patton during the upcoming season? Do you think there’s any chance that he’ll make the roster out of spring training? Would you rather see him build up his arm strength in the minor leagues? What is the likelihood that Patton will enjoy a successful career with the Orioles?

Let me know what you think. I’m interested to hear your opinions about Patton’s future, including his long-term accomplishments.

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Jason Berken
• Brandon Erbe
• David Hernandez
• Brian Matusz
• Lou Montanez
• Hayden Penn
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters
• Rick Zagone

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 12:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (16)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Yesterday, we discussed our thoughts on 21-year-old right-hander Brandon Erbe. Most people agreed with my projections for the McDonogh graduate, but a few readers mentioned that they believe his future is in the bullpen.

That's an interesting observation. With his power and size, the 6-foot-4, 180-pound pitcher could develop into a late-inning reliever. I don't think the Orioles are ready to give up on Erbe as a starter, however, so that experiment will have to be delayed. As long as he continues to compile the strikeouts, the Orioles will be forced to find a way to continue advancing him through the organization. Trust me, it's a problem that they would love to have.

In my opinion, there are two goals for Erbe to work on in 2009 that will help improve his long-term success. I'd like for Erbe to improve his control and focus on keeping his pitches down in the strike zone. The home runs and walks allowed will be reduced if he's able to do these two things consistently this season.

For today's debate, let's dive deep into the Orioles' minor league system. I'd like to talk about a pitcher who is definitely under the radar in the organization -- left-hander Rick Zagone.

Each time I saw Zagone pitch for the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds in 2008, he impressed me. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound pitcher was 7-1 with a 2.89 ERA in 15 games (11 starts) for the IronBirds. Zagone had 79 strikeouts and walked 14 hitters in 65 1/3 innings. He was tied for fourth in the New York-Penn League in strikeouts.

The Orioles selected Zagone in the sixth round of the 2008 MLB draft. He played in college for three seasons at the University of Missouri. The 22-year-old pitcher performed well during his freshman year, but he struggled in his final two seasons with the Tigers. He was 6-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 68 2/3 innings as a freshman. In his sophomore season, Zagone was 7-2 with two complete games, but his ERA jumped to 5.03. Things got worse for Zagone during his junior season, when he lost his spot in the Tigers’ starting rotation and was only 2-3 with a 5.25 ERA in 70 1/3 innings pitched.

I've seen a few analysts mention that Zagone will likely have a more successful career as a relief pitcher, but I think it's better to keep him as a starter. Zagone eventually should pitch in the major leagues if he's able to build upon last season's success with the IronBirds.

It's unclear where Zagone will pitch during the upcoming season, but I think it would be best if he begins the year with the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds. The Orioles could promote him to the Single-A Frederick Keys or Double-A Bowie Baysox if he's pitching well in the middle of the season. They could also choose to have him start with the Keys, but it all depends on where the other pitchers in the organization are placed.

What are your thoughts on Zagone's performance during the 2009 season? Do you think he'll be able to build upon last year's success? Should the Orioles keep him as a starting pitcher, or would it be better to shift him to the bullpen? Will he have a successful career in the major leagues?

Let me know your expectations for Zagone. You can also discuss this topic and others on the Facebook fan page for O's on Deck. It also would be nice to get some minor league photographs and videos added by readers. Make sure to check it out and become a fan if you haven't already. Thanks to all the people who have already signed up, but be sure to utilize all the tools available on the page.

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Jason Berken
• Brandon Erbe
• David Hernandez
• Brian Matusz
• Lou Montanez
• Hayden Penn
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 1:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (18)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Earlier this week, we discussed our thoughts on David Hernandez. For the most part, Orioles fans seem to believe he’s going to play in the major leagues at some point in his career.

Some people think Hernandez will be a solid contributor in the starting rotation, while others consider him a better fit in the bullpen, potentially as a closer. Everyone agrees that Hernandez needs to improve his control in order to have a successful career.

As a couple readers pointed out, the organization should give Hernandez an opportunity because of the high amount of strikeouts that he’s collected in four minor league seasons. The 23-year-old right-handed pitcher has 535 strikeouts in 473 innings in the minor leagues.

It’s good to have a pitcher who is capable of overpowering hitters, but he also needs to be able to minimize the number of base runners allowed. That’s why it’s important for Hernandez to reduce the amount of walks before he’s called up to the major leagues.

Let’s talk about another Orioles pitching prospect today – McDonogh graduate Brandon Erbe.

It seems like the list of promising young pitchers in the Orioles’ minor league system never ends, which is a good thing for an organization that desperately needs to strengthen its pitching staff.

The Orioles selected Erbe in the third round of the 2005 MLB draft, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations so far in his career. In four minor league seasons, Erbe is 18-22 with a 4.55 ERA. Since he’s still young and possesses a solid repertoire of pitches, the 21-year-old right-hander remains high on the list of pitching prospects in the Orioles’ minor league system.

The 6-foot-4, 180-pound pitcher was 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA in 28 starts for the Single-A Frederick Keys last season. Erbe led the Carolina League with 151 strikeouts, and he issued 50 walks in 150 2/3 innings. Erbe also surrendered 21 home runs, however, which was the most in the league.

Last season was Erbe’s second consecutive year as a member of the Keys. He was 6-8 with a 6.26 ERA in 25 starts for Frederick in 2007. Erbe had 111 strikeouts and gave up 14 home runs in 119 1/3 innings during that season.

The Orioles have taken a patient approach with Erbe’s development during his time in the organization. He’ll probably begin the 2009 season with the Double-A Bowie Baysox. With the influx of several other pitching prospects, it’s important that Erbe starts to emerge as a leader, or he could be lost in the shuffle.

Erbe likely will spend the entire season in Bowie. I think he’ll probably have 10-12 wins and an ERA around 3.75. Look for Erbe to be among the leaders in the Eastern League in strikeouts and home runs allowed. He decreased the amount of walks last season, and I believe that trend will continue in 2009.

The high amount of strikeouts are definitely one of Erbe's strongest selling points, but he allows too many home runs at this stage of his career to be projected as a potential player in the major leagues. Erbe still has a lot of room for improvement, but there’s also plenty of time before the Orioles should give up on him. He doesn’t fit into the team’s immediate plans, but there is hope for the future.

What are your predictions for Erbe during the 2009 season? Do you think he’ll step forward as a leader among the Orioles’ pitching prospects, or will he fade into anonymity as another draft pick who didn’t work out for the organization? Is it still too early to tell?

Let me hear your thoughts about Erbe for the upcoming season, as well as your long-term expectations.

------------------------

Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Jason Berken
• David Hernandez
• Brian Matusz
• Lou Montanez
• Hayden Penn
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 1:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (15)
Categories: Predict the future
        

How many Ravens fans watched the Super Bowl last night? If you didn't watch, I won't pass along the bad news about which team won. You can figure it out.

Last week, we shared our predictions for the upcoming season for Jason Berken, who seems to be overshadowed by the other pitching prospects in the Orioles' minor league system. I don't know if it's a sign of his anonymity amongst fans, but less people commented on the entry about Berken than the other young pitchers we've discussed.

Still, the fans that participated in the debate, for the most part, think he deserves an opportunity. As long as he continues to pitch with minimal walks and home runs, then the 25-year-old right-hander should definitely get a chance to prove he belongs in the major leagues.

With the Orioles' surplus of starting pitchers in the organization, Berken's long-term future could be in the bullpen. It seems plausible, but there's no reason to mess with success if he keeps performing well as a starter. I know Orioles fans would enjoy having less walks and home runs allowed by the starting rotation.

Speaking of pitchers who give up a lot of walks and home runs, let's discuss right-handed pitcher David Hernandez today.

Continue reading "Predict the future -- David Hernandez" »

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (16)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Thanks to everyone for the predictions about first baseman Brandon Snyder.

Before last season, Snyder’s prospect status was being questioned, but most people now seem to agree that the former catcher is one of the first players mentioned during any discussion about the Orioles’ future roster.

The difference a year makes is amazing.

Remember, it could just as quickly go in the other direction. That’s why it’s important for Snyder to build on last year's success in order to remain in the organization’s long-term plans. The 6-foot-2, 205-pound infielder seems to be fully recovered from injuries that bothered him in the past, so look for the offensive numbers to increase again in 2009.

Now, let’s discuss the primary focus of this entry – starting pitcher Jason Berken.

If I mentioned the 25-year-old right-hander prior to last season, I’m sure it would have been met with head-scratching bewilderment by the majority of Orioles fans. In fact, I’d guarantee that would still be the reply from at least 25 percent of Orioles fans now.

Several other pitching prospects in the Orioles’ minor league system overshadow the 6-foot, 210-pound starting pitcher. Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen, Brandon Erbe, David Hernandez, Brian Matusz, Chorye Spoone and Chris Tillman are all discussed more frequently than Berken, but he was one of the most reliable pitchers for the Double-A Bowie Baysox in 2008.

Berken, who the Orioles selected in the sixth round of the 2006 MLB draft, was 12-4 with a 3.58 ERA in 26 games (25 starts) for the Baysox last season. He had 125 strikeouts and only walked 38 hitters in 145 2/3 innings. Berken surrendered nine home runs in 2008, which was less than his three more popular Baysox teammates – Bergesen, Tillman and Hernandez.

As a member of the Single-A Frederick Keys during the 2007 season, Berken was 9-9 with a 4.53 ERA in 27 games (26 starts). He had 124 strikeouts and 49 walks in 151 innings for the Keys. In his first professional season, Berken was 1-4 with a 2.80 ERA in nine games (eight starts) for the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds in 2006. He had 46 strikeouts and only issued five walks in 45 innings for the IronBirds.

While pitching in college at Clemson, he missed the entire 2005 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Admittedly, Berken hasn’t suffered any setbacks in the past three years, but that’s something to consider when contemplating his future. The surgery may have made him a better pitcher, honestly, because Berken now uses his control and off-speed pitches to be successful.

If you’re looking for more information about Berken, check out this recent article on greenbaypressgazette.com. The piece includes some background content about Berken, who is from the Green Bay area, as well as some photographs of the pitcher at his baseball camp earlier this month.

Berken should start the upcoming season with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides. Throughout his career, Berken's control has been his best asset, and that won't change in 2009.

If he stays in Norfolk for the entire season, look for Berken to have about four times more strikeouts than walks, and his ERA should be around his career average (3.90). If the Orioles need to promote someone during the season, however, don't be surprised if Berken is at the top of the list.

What are your expectations for Berken this season? Will he make his debut in the major leagues sometime in 2009? If so, how do you think he'll perform?

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Brian Matusz
• Lou Montanez
• Hayden Penn
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 12:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (15)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Over the weekend, I discovered that Orioles fans, for the most part, don’t seem to have confidence in Bill Rowell. Most people cited his reported attitude problem as the reason why they thought he’d never mature and earn an everyday role in the major leagues.

I’ve heard these rumors, but I deliberately didn’t mention them earlier. I wanted to see what everyone thought about the 6-foot-5, 205-pound third baseman before giving my input on the subject. I’ve never met Rowell, so I honestly don’t feel comfortable discussing his mental approach to the game. Until I see it with my own eyes, I’m hesitant to believe it. In the games that I've seen him play, Rowell has never shown any signs of a negative attitude. Hopefully, I’ll be able to provide more details as the season progresses.

Besides, as other readers pointed out, there’s plenty of time for him to grow into a successful player in the majors. The upcoming season, in their opinion, is not the deciding factor on his future role with the Orioles.

I agree that he’s still young enough to make it to the majors even if he struggles this year, but I think he needs to have some success in order to still be considered a legitimate prospect after the 2009 season. I’m sure all Orioles fans can agree that the best solution to the problem is for Rowell to have a breakout season and quiet all the doubts about his makeup.

It seems like a good transition to jump from Rowell to a player who was facing a similar dilemma prior to last season – infielder Brandon Snyder.

Orioles fans were discussing the 22-year-old infielder – who the team selected as a catcher in the first round of the 2005 MLB draft – as a potential bust before he performed well for the Single-A Frederick Keys in 2008. Snyder finished second in the Carolina League with a .315 batting average. He had 13 home runs and 80 RBIs in 116 games for the Keys last season.

Snyder batted .291 with eight home runs and 41 RBIs while splitting time between the rookie-level Bluefield Orioles and short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds during his first professional season in 2005. He had 10 doubles and 30 runs scored in 52 games.

Snyder struggled in 2006 with the IronBirds and Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds. A dislocated right shoulder, as well as a torn left rotator cuff, limited Snyder to 72 games during that season. He hit .213 with four home runs and 31 RBIs. In his final season as a catcher, Snyder committed 12 errors and had 20 passed balls in 51 games behind the plate.

The 6-foot-2, 205-pound infielder returned from the injuries with a solid season in 2007. Snyder batted .283 with 11 home runs and 58 RBIs in 118 games for the Shorebirds. He had 23 doubles and 63 runs scored, but struck out 107 times. Snyder made 11 errors while playing first base for Delmarva.

Personally, I think Snyder is headed for career highs in several offensive categories in 2009. He seems to be fully recovered from the rotator cuff injury, so there could be an increase in his power numbers this season.

Look for Snyder to start the season with the Double-A Bowie Baysox. While it will be the highest level at which he’s played, I don’t believe it will have a major effect on Snyder’s performance. I think he will hit around .320 with 15-20 home runs and 85-95 RBIs for the Baysox. Snyder will likely be among the Eastern League leaders in doubles.

What are your thoughts about Snyder? After his progress last season, do you think he’s back in the picture as a future member of the Orioles? Are my predictions for the upcoming season too optimistic?

Let me know what you think about Snyder’s future. If you think he’s going to make it to the major leagues, what’s your estimated time of arrival?

Finally, I’d like to thank everyone who joined the Facebook fan page for O’s on Deck. There’s already over 100 people, but let’s not stop there. If you know Orioles fans that haven’t joined the fan page, pass along the link so they won’t miss the action.

Remember, the Facebook fan page will only be successful if everyone participates. Some people have already posted messages – by the way, I love all the compliments – but also feel free to use the discussion board to debate different topics. As long as the conversation remains clean, I have no problem with letting everyone talk about what’s on his or her mind.

Don’t forget to add your photos and videos of minor league baseball. In my opinion, those two features will be the most popular aspects of the fan page once the baseball season begins. If you have some photos or videos from the past, feel free to upload them.

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Brian Matusz
• Lou Montanez
• Hayden Penn
• Bill Rowell
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 1:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (20)
Categories: Predict the future
        

OK, before we get into today’s discussion, I wanted to do a little bit of promotion.

I’ve recently discovered the wonderful world of Facebook fan pages, and I figured it would be a great way to expand the reach of O’s on Deck.

So, if you’re a member of Facebook and want to help inflate my ego, click on this link and become a fan of The Baltimore Sun’s minor league baseball blog. It won’t hurt my feelings if you don’t want to be a fan, but I think it could help to increase the dialogue about minor league baseball.

To be honest, I was particularly interested with the feature that allows you to upload videos and photos to the fan page. I think it could become a highly valuable resource if Orioles fans add their photos and videos during the minor league baseball season. We’ll see how it works, and hopefully it will become a popular complementary item for the blog.

Now, I’ll step off my soapbox and return to your regularly scheduled blog post.

Yesterday’s conversation about new Orioles minor leaguer Justin Turner didn’t facilitate as much debate as the previous features in the “Predict the future” series, but the comments seem to prove that fans are preparing for the departure of Brian Roberts.

Most readers agreed that Turner could eventually become Roberts’ replacement if he hits well in the minor leagues during the 2009 season. As a few people noted, however, the 24-year-old second baseman needs to show what he can do as a member of the Orioles’ minor league system in order to be seriously considered as a part of the team’s future.

And, as the reader Jay Sheehan mentioned, the team could always use Turner in a trade if they’re able to extend Roberts. Think of Turner as an insurance policy.

Today, let’s talk about the Orioles’ first-round draft pick during the 2006 MLB draft – third baseman Bill Rowell. This conversation should be interesting because I’ve heard a lot of Orioles fans speak about their frustration and disappointment with his development.

In my opinion, however, Rowell still has plenty of time to become a successful player in the major leagues. Although he hasn’t excelled in his first three professional seasons, the 6-foot-5, 205-pound infielder also hasn’t completely struggled. Remember, he doesn’t celebrate his 21st birthday until September.

While splitting the 2006 season with the rookie-level Bluefield Orioles and short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds, Rowell hit .328 with three home runs and 32 RBIs in 53 games. He had 19 doubles and 46 runs scored.

Rowell batted .273 with nine home runs and 57 RBIs in 91 games for the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds in 2007. He had 21 doubles and 47 runs scored.

Last season, Rowell struggled to hit consistently as a member of the Single-A Frederick Keys. He batted .248 with seven home runs and 50 RBIs in 111 games for the Keys. Rowell had 24 doubles and 39 runs scored.

Overall, the biggest positive with Rowell is his ability to consistently hit doubles, even though his batting average has declined each season. Theoretically, as he continues to develop and mature as a hitter, the doubles will translate into home runs at higher levels.

With that said, Rowell will need to become more disciplined and cut down on the strikeouts in order to be an effective hitter in the major leagues. In 255 games, Rowell has struck out 267 times, and he’s only collected 96 walks.

Another drawback for Rowell is his defense. He committed 18 errors in 2006, 21 in 2007 and 22 during the 2008 season. If you’re keeping track, that’s 61 errors in three seasons. If he doesn’t improve his defense, Rowell’s only shot at making it to the majors will be as a designated hitter.

It’s crucial for Rowell to take a step in the right direction this season – both offensively and defensively – if he’s going to remain among the top prospects in the organization. Last year, Baseball America listed Rowell as the No. 7 prospect in the Orioles’ minor league system. Before Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz entered the picture, the publication listed Rowell as the top prospect in 2006.

Due to his struggles last season, I think it’s almost certain that Rowell will play in Frederick again in 2009. Whether he sinks or swims in the Orioles’ pool of prospects depends exclusively on his performance during the upcoming season.

Because Rowell has had a little bit of success – and he is still young – I believe the third baseman will rebound this season. I think he will hit around .285 with 10-15 home runs and 60-70 RBIs. Look for him to have over 25 doubles and 40-50 runs scored. The strikeouts will continue to be a problem, but hopefully he finds a way to minimize the damage.

What are your expectations for Rowell? Do you think he’ll ever live up to the promise that led the Orioles to draft him in the first round? Will he continue to regress?

I know Orioles fans have strong opinions about Rowell, so let’s hear them.

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Brian Matusz
• Lou Montanez
• Hayden Penn
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 2:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (51)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Last week, we discussed our expectations for Orioles outfielder Lou Montanez in 2009.

It seems like a lot of people think Montanez will succeed offensively this season, regardless of whether it’s in the minor leagues or major leagues. Still, several readers mentioned that he didn’t have great offensive statistics until last season. Those people would like to see the 6-foot-2, 185-pound outfielder repeat his numbers again in the minors before taking on a bigger role with the Orioles.

There were also more than a few comments about using Montanez in a platoon role with Luke Scott in left field. Of course, the Orioles acquired Felix Pie from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for left-handed pitcher Garrett Olson and minor leaguer Hank Williamson earlier this week, and Pie is expected to be the primary left fielder. So, I think many people will want to edit their projections for Montanez during the 2009 season.

With the Orioles picking up Pie, how do you think that affects Montanez in the upcoming season?

Speaking of trades, in case you forgot, the Orioles picked up two prospects along with utility player Ryan Freel in the deal that sent Ramon Hernandez to the Cincinnati Reds earlier in the offseason.

Let’s talk about one of the prospects – Justin Turner – during today’s discussion. I’m assuming most Orioles fans don’t know much about Turner, other than what I posted when the trade occurred.

Here is what MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo said about Turner following the deal.

The Reds selected the 5-foot-11, 180-pound infielder in the seventh round of the 2006 MLB draft.

Turner hit .338 with six home runs and 41 RBIs for the rookie-level Billings Mustangs during his first professional season in 2006. He had 12 stolen bases and 16 doubles in 60 games, while striking out 38 times.

The 24-year-old second baseman, who can also play shortstop, third base and in the outfield, batted .311 with 10 home runs and 59 RBIs in 117 games for the Single-A Dayton Dragons during the 2007 season. Turner had 25 doubles, four triples and 12 stolen bases for the Dragons.

Last season, Turner split time between the Single-A Sarasota Reds and the Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts. He hit .316 with 11 RBIs and 23 runs scored in 33 games for Sarasota before being promoted to Chattanooga. Turner batted .289 with eight home runs and 42 RBIs in 78 games for the Lookouts. He also spent some time on the disabled list after colliding with a teammate during a game in June.

Defensively, Turner has committed 31 errors in 294 minor league games. His worst season was in 2007, when he made 14 errors for Dayton. He made nine errors in 2008.

So, what are your expectations for Turner during the 2009 season? Depending on how the organizational depth chart shakes out during spring training, Turner could start the season with the Double-A Bowie Baysox or the Triple-A Norfolk Tides.

Personally, I’d like to see him as the starting second baseman for the Tides. He could solidify his position as the team’s top prospect at the position with solid offensive numbers in Triple-A. Turner could eventually be the replacement for Brian Roberts if the Orioles are unable to sign the veteran second baseman to a long-term deal.

I’m going to be optimistic and say that Turner will hit .300 with 10-15 home runs and 60-70 RBIs for the Tides. Look for him to be among the league leaders in doubles and runs scored.

Do you think Turner will establish himself as the successor to Roberts? Will he prove to be the most valuable piece of the trade that sent Hernandez to the Reds, or is he destined to spend the rest of his career in the minor leagues?

Let me know what you anticipate from Turner during the upcoming season.

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Brian Matusz
• Lou Montanez
• Hayden Penn
• Chris Tillman
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 2:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (15)
Categories: Predict the future
        

During our discussion about Orioles pitching prospect Jake Arrieta, almost everyone agreed that he should work on his command before progressing too far in the Orioles’ minor league system.

The general consensus among those who participated in the debate was that he should start the season with the Double-A Bowie Baysox. Some people thought it would be better if the 22-year-old right-hander spent the entire season in Bowie, while others believed it would be good if he finished the season with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides.

A few readers mentioned that Arrieta should be promoted to the major leagues in September if he puts up good numbers in the minors. We’ll have to keep a close eye on Arrieta’s progress in 2008 because it will be an important year for his development as a prospect in the organization.

Next, I’d like to talk about a player who emerged as a legitimate power hitter with his breakout season as a member of the Baysox in 2008. Lou Montanez won the Triple Crown in the Eastern League after hitting .335 with 26 home runs and 97 RBIs in 116 games for Bowie last season. The 27-year-old outfielder batted .295 with three home runs and 14 RBIs in 38 games for the Orioles after he was promoted in August.

With those numbers, Montanez deserves to have an opportunity to play every day in the major leagues. Prior to last year, however, the 6-foot-2, 185-pound outfielder never had more than 14 home runs or 62 RBIs in a single season.

Typically, I would like to see a player consistently perform at a high level for more than one season before giving him an opportunity in the major leagues. Still, Montanez didn’t do anything to harm his chances in the couple months that he was in the major leagues at the end of the 2008 season. He proved that he was able to hit major league pitching, and he seemed to improve his defense with more experience.

Why does it seem like there won’t be any room for Montanez with the big league club to start the 2009 season? Well, unfortunately for him, the Orioles have solid outfielders at all three positions. It would be nice to see Montanez coming off the bench as a late-inning pinch-hitter, but I’d rather see him playing every day in Norfolk than riding the pine in Baltimore.

The best-case scenario, in my opinion, is for Montanez to hit around .500 in spring training and force his way into the major leagues. But he should be the starting left fielder for the Tides if the Orioles aren’t going to use him regularly.

As much as I’d like to see Montanez playing at Camden Yards in April, I think he’ll be in Triple-A for most of the season. Look for him to hit around .300 with 25-30 home runs and 90-100 RBIs with the Tides in 2009. Unfortunately, I don’t expect Montanez to spend much time in the majors – unless one of the outfielders suffers an injury and Montanez is needed as a full-time starter. I’m sure Orioles fans don’t want Nick Markakis, Adam Jones or Luke Scott to get hurt, so it’s probably safe to assume Montanez won’t be a regular in the Orioles’ starting lineup this season.

What do you think the Orioles should do with Montanez this season? Should he split time with Scott in left field? Would it be a good idea to use Aubrey Huff as the starting first baseman and have Montanez serve as the full-time designated hitter?

I think Montanez earned the respect of a lot of Orioles fans with his performance last season, so I’m curious to hear your thoughts. Let me know if you agree with my predictions, or if you’re more optimistic about his future.

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Brian Matusz
• Hayden Penn
• Chris Tillman
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 1:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (59)
Categories: Predict the future
        

One thing I learned from last week’s discussion about Brad Bergesen is that Orioles fans would be satisfied to have a pitcher in the rotation who won’t walk many hitters – even if he doesn’t collect many strikeouts.

After watching a number of young Orioles pitchers issue too many walks over the past few seasons, I can’t blame fans for valuing control over power when it comes to a pitching staff.

There was a lot of debate about the value of strikeouts and how that translates to success in the major leagues. Good points were made from both sides of the conversation, but I think it’s best to judge a pitcher’s future on an individual basis. The historical statistics might show that a pitcher with a low strikeout-to-walk ratio won’t have a good career, but that doesn’t mean he can’t overcome the odds and be a solid contributor.

Bergesen won’t be as successful in 2009 as last season with the Double-A Bowie Baysox, in my opinion, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a future with the Orioles. Not everyone is going to show constant improvement from one season to the next. It’s a gradual process, and I think the 23-year-old right-hander eventually should play in the major leagues.

At worst, the 6-foot-2, 205-pound pitcher will be able to help the Orioles as a long reliever. At best, he’ll secure a spot in the rotation.

Today, we’ll take a look at another top pitching prospect in the Orioles’ minor league system – Jake Arrieta.

The right-handed starting pitcher, who will turn 23 in March, led the Carolina League with a 2.87 ERA last season. Arrieta was 6-5 in 20 starts for the Single-A Frederick Keys. Despite missing the final six weeks of the minor league season while playing with the U.S. Olympic team in Beijing, he finished fourth in the league with 120 strikeouts.

The biggest thing, in my opinion, that Arrieta needs to improve in 2009 is his control. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound pitcher issued 51 walks in 113 innings during the 2008 season, which was the fifth-highest total in the league.

The Orioles’ fifth-round selection in the 2007 MLB draft received several accolades in 2008. In addition to being chosen to represent the United States in Beijing, Arrieta was also selected to play for the U.S. team in the MLB Futures Game at Yankee Stadium as part of the All-Star festivities. He was also named the Carolina League Pitcher of the Year.

It’s going to be interesting to see where Arrieta pitches in 2009. At his age, I’d like to believe he’s ready to pitch for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides. However, it’s going to be tough to make room for him in the Tides’ rotation because the four starting pitchers from Bowie – Bergesen, David Hernandez, Jason Berken and Chris Tillman – all deserve an opportunity to advance to the next level.

I don’t think Tillman will be moved up to Norfolk, but he certainly has a better argument than Arrieta because Tillman has already performed well at a higher level. That’s why I think Arrieta will start the 2009 season in Bowie. Look for him to force his way into Triple-A by the middle of the year if he pitches the way he did for the Keys in 2008.

If Arrieta completely dominates the competition in Bowie, he deserves to be called up to the major leagues in September. Although he hasn’t pitched above Single-A, Arrieta seems to be on the right track to the majors. His experience with the U.S. Olympic team should help him to move quickly through the organization.

Look for Arrieta to be among the Eastern League leaders in wins, ERA and strikeouts in 2009. If any of Norfolk’s starting pitchers struggle, Arrieta will be promoted to fill the void.

He needs to reduce the amount of walks, but I think Arrieta will continue to progress this season. I’m not sure that he’ll get a chance to play in the major leagues in 2009 – it depends on the Orioles’ approach with him – but Arrieta has a tremendous upside.

What are your expectations for Arrieta in 2009? Do you think he’ll be in the major leagues at any point this season? Would you rather see him work on his control before making the jump to Norfolk?

Let me hear your predictions for Arrieta. What do you think is a realistic estimate for the time of his arrival with the Orioles?

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Brad Bergesen
• Brian Matusz
• Hayden Penn
• Chris Tillman
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 3:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (28)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Judging from yesterday’s discussion about Brian Matusz, Orioles fans seem to be undecided on where the 21-year-old left-hander should start the 2009 season.

Let me clarify that I’m not saying it’s best for Matusz to start next season at Single-A Frederick, but that's what the Orioles are likely to do. He’ll celebrate his 22nd birthday in the beginning of February, so it’s not like we’re talking about a kid who is fresh out of high school. I think, however, the Orioles will take it slow with the 6-foot-5, 200-pound pitcher, and that's why I suggested that he'll spend at least half of the season with the Keys.

Matusz already has a good level of experience from pitching in the West Coast Conference at the University of San Diego, as well as in the Arizona Fall League, but the Orioles have several other solid pitchers in the minor leagues. Matusz is one of their prized possessions, and they’re not going to damage his career by rushing him through the organization if he’s not completely ready. If Matusz shows that he’s able to handle the competition in Frederick, they’ll promote him to the Double-A Bowie Baysox and give him a bigger test.

Remember, the Orioles started catcher Matt Wieters at Frederick, and he played in college in the Atlantic Coast Conference at Georgia Tech. Wieters dominated in the Carolina League, but the Orioles didn’t move him up to Bowie until the middle of the season. Throw in the fact that pitching is much different than hitting and the Orioles likely won't be moving quickly to promote Matusz.

Next, I’d like to hear your thoughts on right-handed pitcher Brad Bergesen.

The 6-foot-2, 205-pound starting pitcher emerged as a viable candidate for the Orioles’ rotation of the future with his breakout performance in Bowie during the 2008 season.

Bergesen, who was honored by the Orioles as the Jim Palmer Minor League Pitcher of the Year, established a franchise record for wins in a season by going 15-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 24 games (23 starts) for the Baysox. The 23-year-old pitcher led the team with 148 innings, and he tossed three complete games. Before being promoted to Bowie, Bergesen was 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four games (three starts) for the Keys.

Still, I’m not convinced that Bergesen is worthy of being considered among the top pitching prospects in the organization. Although the Orioles’ fourth-round pick in the 2004 MLB draft seems to have tremendous control – only 27 walks issued at Bowie in 2008 – he doesn’t overpower hitters. Bergesen only had 72 strikeouts last season, so he’s not as good at putting batters away as Matusz, Chris Tillman, David Hernandez and others.

Looking at his past statistics, it makes me wonder if Bergesen simply had an atypical season in 2008.

While splitting time between the Keys and Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds during the 2007 season, he was 10-9 with a 3.52 ERA in 25 starts. That doesn’t look too bad, until you consider that he was only 3-6 with a 5.75 ERA in 10 starts with the Keys.

Bergesen had a 4.29 ERA in 18 games (14 starts) for the Shorebirds in 2006, and he was 1-3 with a 4.82 ERA in 15 starts for the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds during the 2005 season.

While I’m not sold on Bergesen’s status as one of the best pitching prospects in the organization, I think he’s earned his promotion to the Triple-A Norfolk Tides. But I don’t believe he’s going to have statistics similar to his performance at Bowie in 2008.

Bergesen, in my opinion, will put up numbers closer to what Hayden Penn did for the Tides last season. Penn was 6-7 with a 4.79 ERA in 21 starts at Norfolk in 2008. He had 65 strikeouts and issued 35 walks in 99 2/3 innings.

Even though Bergesen will pitch more innings -- because he shouldn’t miss time due to injuries like Penn -- I’d expect him to be 10-11 with a 4.50 ERA in 25 starts at Norfolk. He’ll post a similar strikeout-to-walk ratio as Penn did in 2008 with the Tides.

What are your thoughts on Bergesen’s future performance? Do you think he’ll continue to pitch successfully as he climbs up the organizational ladder? Should he play with the Orioles at any point during the 2009 season?

Let me know your predictions for Bergesen during the upcoming season, as well as how you think he’ll perform over the rest of his career. Will he become a solid middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher for the Orioles in the future?

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Brian Matusz
• Hayden Penn
• Chris Tillman
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 3:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (48)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Surprisingly, a lot of readers agreed with me in the discussion about Hayden Penn.

To be honest, I thought it was too optimistic when I projected Penn to win 10 games for the Orioles in 2009. Several readers, however, agreed with me and echoed the sentiment that he’ll be successful in the major leagues this season.

Not everyone expected the 24-year-old right-hander to collect that many wins, but I think we all can agree that it will be a giant step forward if Penn, who has been hindered by injuries in his career, is able to stay healthy for the entire year and make a contribution in the majors.

Since the Orioles recently agreed to terms with free-agent pitcher Koji Uehara, Penn’s role in the organization could change for the upcoming season. Uehara is another player who will compete with Penn for a spot in the rotation, so it will be interesting to see how the roster develops in spring training.

I’m sticking by my prediction for now, but it may need to be modified before the season starts.

Let’s dive back into the pool of promising pitching prospects and discuss left-hander Brian Matusz today.

The Orioles selected the 21-year-old starting pitcher from the University of San Diego in the first round of last year’s MLB draft. Matusz was named the Pitcher of the Year in the West Coast Conference in 2008. He was 12-2 with a 1.71 ERA and three complete-game shutouts in 15 games (14 starts) as a junior for the Toreros. In 105 innings, Matusz had 141 strikeouts with only 22 walks.

Matusz was 10-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 163 strikeouts in 123 innings during the 2007 season. As a freshman in 2006, the 6-foot-5, 200-pound pitcher was 4-3 with a 4.25 ERA in 89 innings. He had 93 strikeouts that season.

After signing with the Orioles, Matusz worked out with the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds, but he wasn't on the team's active roster. He also represented the organization as a member of the Surprise Rafters in the Arizona Fall League. In seven games (six starts) for Surprise, Matusz was 2-4 with a 4.73 ERA. He had 31 strikeouts and walked seven hitters in 26 2/3 innings.

Nothing is official yet, but it looks like the Single-A Frederick Keys will be the first destination for Matusz in 2009. If he performs well with the Keys, Matusz could be moved up to the Double-A Bowie Baysox by the All-Star break.

I’m expecting Matusz to make about 15 starts with Frederick before earning a promotion to Bowie. He should collect at least eight wins with a 3.25 ERA as a member of the Keys. For the Baysox, I think he will win six games and have a 3.75 ERA. Look for him to have around 125 total strikeouts between the two levels.

What are your thoughts about Matusz for the upcoming season? Do you think it would be a mistake if the Orioles start him in Frederick, or is it good if they take a patient approach? When do you think he’ll be pitching for the Orioles?

As always, tell me if you think I’m completely wrong with my predictions. Feel free to include your projections for Matusz over the length of his entire career.

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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Hayden Penn
• Chris Tillman
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 2:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (37)
Categories: Predict the future
        

First of all, I'd like to wish a happy birthday to my dad. I won't list his age because I'm sure he doesn't want the loyal readers of O's on Deck to know that much about him. Let's just say he's old enough to remember all of the Orioles' World Series championships, but not quite as old as the team.

Last week’s discussion about Chris Tillman showed that Orioles fans are split on whether the 20-year-old right-hander should start the 2009 season in Triple-A Norfolk or Double-A Bowie.

There were good arguments on both sides of the debate.

Tillman showed that he was able to pitch effectively against the competition in Double-A last season – 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA – but he also struggled with his control. The 6-foot-5, 195-pound pitcher walked 65 hitters in 135 2/3 innings – the third-highest total in the Eastern League. On the other hand, Tillman could work out the problems against better players as he continues to climb the ladder through the organization.

The Orioles will need to decide what is best for the young pitcher’s future, but I think it would be ideal for Tillman to prove that he’s able to harness his control and command in Bowie before making the jump to the next level.

Remember, there’s no requirement saying Tillman needs to spend any time with Norfolk. If he dominates at Bowie in 2009, the Orioles could decide he’s ready to pitch at Camden Yards without any Triple-A experience. I’m not saying that’s what should be done, but it’s possible.

That philosophy didn’t work out for the Orioles with starting pitcher Daniel Cabrera. The 27-year-old right-hander was promoted from Bowie to the Orioles in 2004, and he hasn’t been able to live up to his potential on a consistent basis in the major leagues. If it happens now, it will be with another team because the Orioles finally gave up on Cabrera. He will be playing for the Washington Nationals in 2009.

Do you remember the discussion from last month about rushing prospects to the major leagues?

In retrospect, Cabrera seems to be a player who was promoted to the majors too early. He serves as a perfect example of why the Orioles should take their time with young pitching prospects.

Another instance where the Orioles rushed a pitcher to the majors was Hayden Penn in 2005. They also promoted him directly from Bowie. Like Tillman, he was a 20-year-old prospect at the time. Penn was 3-2 with a 6.34 ERA in eight starts for the Orioles during the 2005 season. In six starts at the end of 2006, he was 0-4 with a 15.10 ERA.

Speaking of control issues, Penn’s struggles during his two stints in the major leagues were magnified by his inability to consistently throw strikes. In 58 innings with the Orioles, Penn walked 34 hitters and only had 26 strikeouts.

Last season, Penn was 6-7 with a 4.79 ERA in 21 starts for Norfolk. He had 65 strikeouts and 35 walks in 99 2/3 innings for the Tides. Penn also allowed 14 home runs in 2008.

As Peter Schmuck mentioned on his blog last week, the Orioles will be forced to make a difficult decision in spring training because Penn is out of minor league options.

So, if you’re the Orioles, what do you do with Penn in 2009? Do you give him a spot in the rotation regardless of his performance during the spring? Does he have to earn his way to the majors? Do you gamble and try to sneak him by the other 29 organizations and outright him to Norfolk?

Personally, I think Penn could be a surprise for the Orioles this season. If he’s able to stay healthy – yes, I realize that’s the million-dollar question – he might fill a rotation spot for the near future. With the emergence of the young pitching prospects, Orioles fans have often overlooked Penn, but he can earn his way back into the team’s plans in 2009.

I think he’s going to be the Orioles’ fifth starter, and he’ll win 10 games this season.

Stop laughing.

When it comes true, I’ll be the first person to remind you of my prediction.

I guarantee it.

Let’s hear your thoughts about how Penn will perform in 2009. I doubt anyone will be as optimistic as I am, but do you think he’ll make a solid contribution with the Orioles? Does he fit into the future of the organization after this season?

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 1:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (60)
Categories: Predict the future
        

First, I’d like to wish everyone a Happy New Year.

Last year – OK, so it was Monday – we discussed the future of catcher Matt Wieters. Many people feel the top prospect will be playing for the Orioles at some point in 2009. Some readers think he’ll start the year in the major leagues, but most folks agreed that Wieters would be called up during the middle of the season.

I also enjoyed the few readers who pointed out that predicting Wieters’ future means picking which team he’ll join as a free agent -- the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox -- when he's eligible. We shouldn’t get that far ahead. Let the 22-year-old kid play at least one game in Camden Yards before we send him off to join Mark Teixeira in the Bronx.

If you didn’t participate in the predictions for Wieters, I’ll give you a brief summary of what to expect in the "Predict the future" entries. I’ll list some background about the player’s statistics, as well as my expectations for the 2009 season. Your job is to tell me whether you agree with me or not. I want to hear your predictions for the player in the upcoming season, but feel free to expand deeper into the future and include his final career statistics.

You can continue adding predictions about Wieters, but I’m going to head into the pitching department today.

The Orioles have a lot of pitching prospects in the organization, but a few stand out above the others. Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz are regarded among the best in professional baseball by many publications. Tillman was acquired in the trade that sent Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners prior to last season, and the Orioles drafted Arrieta and Matusz.

Tillman was 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 28 starts for Double-A Bowie in 2008. He was fifth in the Eastern League in ERA and tied for sixth in the league in wins. Tillman also finished second in the league with 154 strikeouts. He trailed teammate David Hernandez (166) in that category.

The 20-year-old right-hander was 7-11 with a 4.84 ERA in 28 starts while splitting time between the Single-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers and Single-A High Desert Mavericks in the Mariners’ minor league system during the 2007 season.

It’s difficult to predict Tillman’s performance for the upcoming season because he doesn’t have much professional experience. This will only be his third full season in the minor leagues, so the Orioles could choose to move him along slowly.

I think a lot of fans will complain if the Orioles start Tillman at Bowie in 2009, but that seems like the best move to me.

Between players being demoted from the majors and others making the jump from Double-A, the Orioles have several pitchers who can fight for positions in the rotation at Triple-A Norfolk. Therefore, I don’t see any reason why Tillman should be rushed to the Tides.

Let Tillman start the year in Bowie. If he starts strong, the Orioles should be willing to find room in Norfolk to continue his development. Tillman shouldn’t struggle since he’s already been through a full season in the Eastern League. If that happens, however, he’ll have plenty of time to work out the problems without facing the pressure to succeed at a higher level.

I think Tillman will pitch well in the first half of the season in Bowie and earn a promotion to Norfolk around the All-Star break. Look for him to be among the leaders in the Eastern League in wins, strikeouts and ERA when he’s called up from Double-A. He may struggle to adapt to Triple-A at first, especially if the Orioles put him in Norfolk to begin the season, but Tillman should continue to develop along the path to the majors in 2009.

What are your thoughts on Tillman? Do you think it’s wrong if the Orioles assign him to Bowie again in 2009? Should he start at Norfolk and possibly earn a promotion to the major leagues at the end of the season? Is it better to throw him into the waters of Triple-A and see if he can sink or swim?

Let me know what you think, including exact statistics if you’re willing to be brave.

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 10:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (48)
Categories: Predict the future
        

In a few days, the calendar will be changing to 2009.

The end of another year in the Orioles' rebuilding plan and one step closer to being competitive again.

The beginning of another year in the Orioles' losing streak and one more step into mediocrity.

It depends on your perspective.

Over the past few days, I've seen plenty of points on both sides of the discussion.

Watching the celebration around M&T Bank Stadium yesterday after the Ravens' 27-7 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars forced me to ponder one question -- how crazy will it be to live in Baltimore when the Orioles make the playoffs again?

All those years of disappointment will make it that much sweeter for the fans -- if they're not all gone by the time it happens.

OK, that's enough about the depressing topic of 11 consecutive losing seasons for the Orioles. They'll make it back to the playoffs sometime in the future. I promise.

Let's jump into a new feature on O's on Deck. I'm going to call it "Predict the future" because that's exactly what I want you to do.

Over the next few weeks -- we'll see how long we can run with this idea -- I'll name an Orioles prospect and my expectations for that player during the 2009 season. Your job is to tell me what you think the player will do. I want to hear your hopes for the upcoming season, but feel free to expand your thoughts beyond 2009.

Be sure to tell me if you think I'm completely incorrect. Keep it clean or I won't be able to publish the comment. It will be fun to keep our predictions until the end of the year and revisit them to see who was right and wrong.

It's probably easiest to start with the top prospect in the Orioles' minor league system -- catcher Matt Wieters. I know a lot of fans are pushing for him to start the season with the Orioles, but I don't think that is the plan of the organization.

Wieters could force the Orioles into a difficult decision if he plays extremely well in spring training, but I still think he's going to start the year with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides. However, I don't believe he'll be in the minor leagues for the entire season.

After hitting .355 with 27 home runs and 91 RBIs in 130 games while splitting the 2008 season between the Single-A Frederick Keys and Double-A Bowie Baysox, the Orioles' first-round draft pick in 2007 proved that he's ready for the next step -- a promotion to Triple-A.

I'm expecting the 22-year-old catcher to hit around .300 with 10-15 home runs and 45-55 RBIs with the Tides during the first three months of the 2009 season. Those numbers will force the Orioles to bring him up sometime in July.

At this point in his career, Wieters has excelled at every level -- from college to Single-A to Double-A -- so there's no reason to believe he won't continue the climb to the major leagues. In my opinion, the ideal scenario would have him in the major leagues before the trade deadline. It would still be a success, however, for Wieters to be promoted when rosters expand in the beginning of September.

I believe the logical expectation is to see Wieters in the major leagues at some point in 2009. It will surprise me if it's on Opening Day, but it will surprise me more if he spends the entire year in the minors.

What are your expectations for Wieters in 2009? Would you be mad if he spends the entire season in the minor leagues? Do you think he'll struggle if he plays with the Orioles at any point this season?

If you really want to be exact, leave your thoughts on his statistics at each level.

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 5:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (45)
Categories: Predict the future