Predict the future -- Tyler Henson
It’s been over a week since we discussed the future of an Orioles prospect, so today seems like a good time to hold another debate.
Last Tuesday, we talked about infielder Ryan Adams. Most readers agreed that the 21-year-old second baseman would never play in the major leagues if he is unable to reduce the amount of errors.
Some people, however, think the defensive miscues will decrease as Adams climbs through the Orioles’ minor league system because more repetitions will help to improve his skills. I believe that’s a valid observation, but Adams will need to work hard on his defense in order to win a permanent role in the majors.
Speaking of above-average hitters who struggle defensively, let’s ponder the future of Tyler Henson today. The Orioles recently announced the decision to move 2006 first-round pick Bill Rowell to right field for the upcoming season, which clears space for Henson to take over third base for the Single-A Frederick Keys.
Henson batted .265 with 11 home runs and 62 RBIs in 127 games for the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds last season. The 21-year-old third baseman collected 20 stolen bases and 25 doubles for the Shorebirds.
While he showed potential to become a power hitter in Delmarva, the 6-foot-1, 190-pound infielder committed 29 errors at third base for the Shorebirds. Like Adams, Henson will need to cut down on the errors as he climbs through the organization if he hopes to earn a spot with the Orioles in the future.
Henson will also need to improve his plate discipline. The Orioles’ fifth-round selection in the 2006 MLB draft struck out 121 times in 2008, and he only earned 25 walks during the entire season. Henson improved dramatically in this category while playing for the West Oahu CaneFires in Hawaii Winter Baseball. Remarkably, he led the league with 25 walks in 35 games for the CaneFires.
Henson hit .275 with five home runs and 32 RBIs while splitting the 2007 season between the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds and Frederick. He batted .289 with 18 doubles, four triples, five home runs, 31 RBIs and 20 stolen bases in 67 games for the IronBirds. In six games with the Keys at the end of the season, Henson was 1-for-17 with one RBI.
Like I said above, look for Henson to be the everyday third baseman in Frederick this season. I have a feeling that he is headed for a breakout year, so I predict Henson will hit around .275 with 15-20 home runs and 70-80 RBIs. The organization seems to appreciate his speed, so expect 20-30 stolen bases from Henson in 2009. He also will be among the leaders in the Carolina League in doubles, in my opinion.
What are your thoughts about Henson? Do you think he’ll make progress with his defense and plate discipline in 2009? What are your statistical expectations for Henson this season?
On a related note, how do you feel about the Orioles’ decision to move Rowell to the outfield? With Nick Markakis entrenched in right field for the Orioles, does it surprise you that the organization didn’t move Rowell to another position?
Let me hear your thoughts about both topics.
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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:
• Ryan Adams
• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Jason Berken
• Zach Britton
• Brandon Erbe
• David Hernandez
• Caleb Joseph
• Brian Matusz
• Greg Miclat
• Kam Mickolio
• Lou Montanez
• Troy Patton
• Hayden Penn
• Wilfrido Perez
• Nolan Reimold
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters
• Rick Zagone








Comments
If Rowell is moving to right field then the only logical observation is that he will end up trade bait. In an effort to salvage value with the high pick that he was originally.
Posted by: Robert | March 12, 2009 5:27 AM
Rowell to the outfield? Why not 1st base? That seems to be a position with little organizational depth and a much quicker path to the majors? And moving from one corner of the infield to the other seems more natural. Guess the logic on this one defies me.
Posted by: mitch56 | March 12, 2009 7:45 AM
I saw Henson play at Salisbury last year. He looked good, so I hope that the jump to Frederick is a good thing. Rowell, on the other hand, did not play well the few times that I saw Frederick. Some of that is immaturity. The RF thing eludes me, but it must mean that the organization values Brandon Snyder over Rowell, at least for now.
Posted by: R P Hall | March 12, 2009 10:43 AM
They need to shift Rowell to the position that he has the best chance of being a commodity. They say his arm is good enough to play right so that could be a good fit for him. When it comes time that he is ready and Markakis is still in right, they can decide to move him over to left or trade him for whatever missing pieces we need at that point. But first, he needs to succeed. The point is, that Rowell needs to maximize his potential and play the position that best allows him to do that in order for him to help this organization in one way or another.
Posted by: Mike | March 12, 2009 11:06 AM
Regarding Rowell: I'm not surprised to see Rowell move off of 3B. His value is entirely tied to his bat, and hopefully a less demanding position will help him make strides at the plate. I also don't think we should be worried about his move to RF. So what if Markakis is in Baltimore?! Right now, Rowell is pretty far away from the bigs, so the O's should be more concerned with maximizing his value to the club. With his bat and arm strength, RF is where he profiles best.
With regards to Henson: I like him at 3B. I'm a little skeptical of his bat fitting well there. His plate discipline will probably never be even average, and I don't think he'll ever hit for the power that people like at 3B. But he can help the offense in other ways, and I like his glove there. He's a great athlete and the little that I saw of him at 3B, he showed it. The guy can pick it. His problem is being consistent with his throws. Give him time.
Posted by: Ryan from HdG | March 12, 2009 12:09 PM
I think they should make whoever advised us to draft Rowell so high play right field for the Keys. At this point it seems as though he'll be like 95% of our other first round picks.....A BUST!
Posted by: Matt | March 12, 2009 1:49 PM
Please allow me to go back to a question I asked several days ago. Do the Orioles feel that Wilfredo Perez must be a reliever? He is getting out major league hitters and we need a starter, not a reliever. Is the problem that he doesn't have enough secondary pitches or that he lacks stamina?
Posted by: Hoot Gibson | March 12, 2009 1:55 PM
i'd like to know how henson came up with the idea of the muppets
Posted by: fkterp | March 12, 2009 4:35 PM
I never really thought much of playing real tall lanky guys at third. Cal was one of the best and smartest defensive players of all time,and one of the hardest working guys ever to play the game, and his move to third wasn't seamless.
Rowell's value and potential if he still has one is as a 3,4, 5 guy in the order. If he doesn't develop into a big bopper, he's not going to be a major leagurer.
He's got a big time arm so the move to right makes some sense, converting outfeilders to 1st at the major league level isn't that difficult if he developes into a major league hitter down the road.
Important thing now for Billy is to stop the force feeding through the system, and let him force his way to the next level with his bat.
He showed some signs of improvement during the year last year, the 1/2 yr with Weiters and the full season with Snyder may have helped his approach to the game.
That's the thing that I think that has gotten overlooked about Weiters is that he maybe a guy that has that ability to make the players around him better. If that is true, it is going to be a huge factor in the development of this team the next few years.
I haven't seen Henson yet, but look forward to seeing him at Frederick this year.
On the shorter term, I wonder if the Orioles have considered giving Montenez a look at third? It seems like he would be an option to replace Mora at the hot corner.
Posted by: mountain fan | March 13, 2009 8:33 AM
I just got back from my fifth game of the year at Grove Stadium to see the Keys. They have some exciting young players, and one of them is certainly Henson. Not only has he made some very fine plays at third, he swings a heavy bat, and is VERY fast.
Also, he hit a home run last night and my 12 year old son ended up with the ball (it bounced back onto the field, and the Hillcats' RF tossed my son the ball). Anyway, we went to the game tonight, and after the game, my son waited for him to try and have him autograph the ball. He was extremely gracious and polite. Then, he waited patiently as another kid, desperate for an autograph, searched for a pen. I gave him mine. Then I forgot I had given the kid my pen, but Tyler didnt. I stood there saying, "Sir, Sir!" to try and give me my pen back!
Trust me, in my years of going to Keys' games, I have seen prima donnas even in Single-A ball. This guy, regardless of whether he makes it to Baltimore, is a nice, quality PERSON, and that should not be forgotten.
My sons and I are rooting for you, Ty. Go get em!!
Posted by: Brian | May 19, 2009 11:58 PM
perhaps he's a good player, but he's certainly no one my kids will look up to.
two trips to salem so far this year. three major arguments with umpires resulting in two ejections..should have been tossed all three times.
Posted by: Barry Weston | June 1, 2009 2:47 PM