Predict the future -- Zach Britton
When reading through the comments from last week’s post about outfielder Nolan Reimold, I noticed that a lot of people believe the Orioles have two options with his future – switch him to another position or trade him.
If Felix Pie has a good season in 2009, the Orioles will have long-term solutions at each of the three outfield positions. I realize that there’s a possibility that Pie won’t adapt to an everyday role, but he’s definitely ahead of Reimold in the pecking order at this point.
So, logically, the Orioles could shift Reimold to first base in order to find a place for him in the major leagues. He’s never played that position in his professional career, however, so it’s probably not the best idea to rely on him to play there with the Orioles.
A trade would make sense, if the Orioles could get solid value in return, but it would be best for the team to keep their surplus of outfielders. Reimold will only be a phone call away with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides in case someone gets injured. That’s the smart thing to do, in my opinion.
For today’s discussion, I want to talk about starting pitcher Zach Britton.
The Orioles selected the 21-year-old left-hander in the third round of the 2006 MLB draft. Britton played high school baseball in Weatherford, Texas, and elected to sign with the Orioles instead of accepting a scholarship to play in college at Texas A&M.
In his first professional season, Britton was 0-4 with a 5.29 ERA in 11 starts for the rookie-level Bluefield Orioles in 2006. The 6-foot-2, 172-pound pitcher had 21 strikeouts and 20 walks in 34 innings.
Britton was 6-4 with a 3.68 ERA in 15 starts for the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds during the 2007 season. In 63 2/3 innings, he issued 22 walks and had 45 strikeouts. Britton only surrendered one home run during his time with the IronBirds.
The biggest improvement for Britton occurred last season while he was pitching for the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds. He finished 12-7 with a 3.12 ERA and one complete game in 27 starts. Britton had 114 strikeouts and 49 walks in 147 1/3 innings for the Shorebirds.
With the abundance of pitchers above him in the Orioles’ minor league system, it’s easy for Britton to be overshadowed. He has quietly improved each year, however, so it’s important for Orioles fans to keep an eye on him during the upcoming season. Britton will probably start with the Single-A Frederick Keys in 2009.
If he pitches well for the Keys at the beginning of the season, I think he might earn a promotion to the Double-A Bowie Baysox sometime in the middle of the year. Look for him to have a 3.25 ERA and 10-15 wins during the 2009 season. Although he hasn’t collected an overwhelming number of strikeouts so far in his career, I think Britton will surprise a lot of people and average about one strikeout per inning in 2009.
What are your expectations for Britton during the upcoming season? Do you think he’ll show improvement again, or will he take a step back in 2009? Among the pitching prospects in the Orioles’ minor league system, where would you rank Britton?
Feel free to list projections for the rest of his career, including how you believe Britton will perform in the major leagues. I’m interested to see what everyone thinks.
By the way, has anyone attended spring training? Feel free to upload your photographs of your encounters with the Orioles to the Facebook fan page for O’s on Deck, as well as the user-generated content photo gallery on baltimoresun.com.
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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:
• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Jason Berken
• Brandon Erbe
• David Hernandez
• Brian Matusz
• Greg Miclat
• Kam Mickolio
• Lou Montanez
• Troy Patton
• Hayden Penn
• Wilfrido Perez
• Nolan Reimold
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters
• Rick Zagone
Comments
B\Dean, that's a bold prediction on Britton increasing his K rate while moving up. If he does that and maintains his command, he moves into the 2nd tier of pitching prospects just below Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta and Erbe.
I am not sure about him moving on to Bowie this year though, since the rotation could be crowded there most of this season.
Too soon to say what Britton's MLB future will be, but it might be for a team other than the O's. If things break right with the upper level arms, the next crop is going to find very tough competition for a big league job. Some will end up as trade bait.
Posted by: PhilF | February 24, 2009 9:00 AM
if he continues on his present pace one should look for him to be a possible part of the major league staff in 2 yrs. maybe a half yr at frederick and at least a half yr at bowie plus some time at norfolk. it would be nice to see the orioles use some of their young pitchers out of the bullpen when they first come up to the major leagues so i would hope britton starts his major league career in the bullpen in 2011. he has penn, berken, bergesen, tillman, arrieta, patton, hernandez,bascom and probably a couple more pitchers ahead of him. of course only a few will probably make it but at elast the orioles have decent numbers to work with.
Posted by: fkterp | February 24, 2009 10:00 AM
I agree with your prediction that he'll increase his K-rate this year, but here's why: the slider. He's worked with it now for a full season (Delmarva was the first full year he worked exclusively on the slider as his breaking pitch). I think we'll see him have a handle of that much better this year and he'll bounce fewer unintentionally (of course he may want to chunk one at 0-2/1-2 counts to set up a guy or to have someone chase).
He, unlike any of the Baltimore pitching prospects actually came with a change he's confident throwing. It's something he's always had and could go to.
Britton could probably go out and get 9-10 K's per inning, but what he has learned at the right age "why do it when you can get an out faster?" He knows his strengths, but unlike a guy like Bergesen, Britton will be able to rely on the strikeout more often.
12-7, 3.89 ERA, favorable go/ao ratio, 8.5-9 k/ip over Freddy and Bowie.
Posted by: Michael J | February 24, 2009 11:25 PM
I like your analysis of how players did after ST games. Also, your bringing to our attention the lesser known minor leaguers, like Caleb Joseph, is really helpful.
Posted by: lee rosner | February 26, 2009 6:37 AM