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February 10, 2009

Predict the future -- Troy Patton

Last week, we discussed pitcher Rick Zagone, who pitched for the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds in 2008.

Mostly everyone agreed that the left-hander was impressive in his first professional season, but several readers think he needs to have success at higher levels in order to have a chance at contributing in the major leagues.

Since his numbers in college at Missouri were mediocre – and the New York-Penn League is probably a step back from the Big 12 Conference competition he faced with the Tigers – I agree that Zagone will need to put up similar numbers in 2009 in order to show that he’s worthy of being mentioned in the discussion with the rest of the pitching prospects.

With that said, I believe he’ll continue to succeed in the future. At worst, the 6-foot-4, 215-pound pitcher should be able to build a solid career as a situational reliever in the major leagues. Still, I think Zagone possesses the ability and deception – he hides the ball well during his delivery – that would allow him to become a dependable starter at the back of a team's rotation.

Let’s talk about another left-handed pitcher who is a big question mark heading into the upcoming season, although it is due to a different reason.

Troy Patton, who was acquired from the Houston Astros in the trade for shortstop Miguel Tejada in December 2007, is recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. The 6-foot-1, 185-pound starting pitcher missed all of last season due to the injury, but he’s expected to be ready for 2009.

Although he’ll compete for a spot in the major leagues, it’s probable that Patton will begin the year in the minors. This strategy seems like a good idea in order to ensure that Patton is completely healthy before putting him in a high-pressure environment.

Patton was 0-2 with a 3.55 ERA in three games (two starts) for the Astros at the end of the 2007 season. He had eight strikeouts and allowed three home runs in 12 2/3 innings for Houston. Patton was 10-8 with a 3.51 ERA while splitting time between the Double-A Corpus Christi Hooks and Triple-A Round Rock Express before the promotion.

In four minor league seasons, Patton is 18-16 with a 3.01 ERA. He has 396 strikeouts and 127 walks in 445 innings. The Astros’ ninth-round pick in the 2004 MLB draft struck out 132 hitters in 119 2/3 innings in 2005. Patton collected 139 strikeouts in 146 innings during the 2006 season, but he only managed 93 in 151 1/3 innings in 2007. It will be interesting to see how the shoulder surgery affects his strikeout totals this season.

Ideally, Patton will begin the season with the Double-A Bowie Baysox and – after he proves he’s healthy – move quickly to the Triple-A Norfolk Tides. The Orioles shouldn’t rush Patton, in my opinion, but he might pitch his way into the major leagues at some point during the 2009 season.

To say it’s difficult to recover from a major shoulder surgery would be an understatement, so it might be foolish to expect any contributions from Patton with the Orioles. I’d like to hope for the best, but he’ll have to prove to me that he’s completely healthy before I pencil him into the Orioles’ long-term future.

What are your predictions for Patton during the upcoming season? Do you think there’s any chance that he’ll make the roster out of spring training? Would you rather see him build up his arm strength in the minor leagues? What is the likelihood that Patton will enjoy a successful career with the Orioles?

Let me know what you think. I’m interested to hear your opinions about Patton’s future, including his long-term accomplishments.

------------------------

Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

Jake Arrieta
Brad Bergesen
Jason Berken
Brandon Erbe
David Hernandez
Brian Matusz
Lou Montanez
Hayden Penn
Bill Rowell
Brandon Snyder
Chris Tillman
Justin Turner
Matt Wieters
Rick Zagone

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 12:15 AM | | Comments (16)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Comments

Healthy, this guy has a future with the O's, maybe this year as a call up at some point. He had very nice numbers across the board in the minors before his arm started acting up in "07. Let's cross our fingers.

Hey Dean, I haven't heard much about Patton going to AA first, I've only heard about AAA Norfolk. Patton is interesting, hopefully he'll come back healthy. He was basically the centerpiece of the Tejada deal. Most viewed him as a potential 2-3 starter. What were his best pitches before going down? What was his velocity on his fastball?

I'm a Troy Patton skeptic for one reason. He was the only player out of the 10 acquired for Tejada and Bedard who openly expressed anger over coming to Baltimore. I anticipate he want out of the organization at the earliest chance.

Dean,
have the O's given up on Mike Costanzo from the same trade....he is not even invited to Spring Training.....
what's up with that?

Dean, Interesting subject. Troy has put up some nice numbers, good control. and could certainly help this team. That said, with his injury, the O's must be patient with him. I would like to see him spend a month or two at bowie, and then if all is well, receive a promotion to Norfolk. If he continues to progress, with no arm fatigue, bring him up in August or September. I think he has a good chance of making the rotation later this year, and from what I've read, once he makes the rotation he will stick.

I think Patton starts the year at Bowie, if only because the rotation at Norfolk will be filled with people coming down from Baltimore (Waters, Bass, etc.) and people being deservedly promoted from Bowie (one or two of the Bergesen/Berken/Hernandez/Tillman crew). Unless, of course, he's lights out in spring training in which case he starts at Norfolk to show he's ready for the majors. Still, I think there is enough organizational depth that there is no need to start him any higher than AA.

Hi Dean,
I believe that they will put Patton on the Bowie roster. The main reasons will be to be able to keep a close eye on his progress, especially if he does fairly well during ST, and let him take his time and don't pressure him. It is time that the team let the young pitchers get very comfortable before they move them up the ladder. We have enough pitching to do that at this time.

Dean,

I think something being glossed over here is how bad the Tejada trade is starting to look. Patton and Albers, the cornerstones of the trade, both have busted shoulders. The track record of coming back from shoulder surgery, particularly on the labrum, is terrible. I would love to see Patton pitch well, and soon, but I don't predict it will happen. The only pitcher I can think of that has totally recovered before is Curt Schilling.

Sarfate was OK earlier last year but sputtered down the stretch and I don't see him as a reliable long term option... he's had a lot of chances. Mike Costanzo is looking less and less like a major leaguer of any kind... not only does he strike out too much but he can't play any position well. Finally, Luke Scott had a decent year last year, but he was included in the deal to be a stop-gap player, and the gap is already being filled by other guys (Pie, Wiggington).

People need to stop referring to the "two great trades" of last offseason.

All that being said, I can't wait to see how spring training shakes out, especially with the pitchers, and I can't wait for the new season... Go O's baby.

In reference to the post above mine,

I think you are looking at the trade in the wrong light. Sure, we probably didn't get an above-average player in return. But look closer at what we did get. Luke Scott is an excellent hitter and could get us a solid player in a trade. Albers looked great last year until his shoulder slowed him down, and don't rule out a recovery before he even starts. Patton has put up great numbers in the minors, and again, don't rule him out before he has a chance to start. Sarfate had issues last year, but he's young, and with the power he has on his pitches, you have to figure he can contribute something.

Also, you forget the best part of that trade, we got rid of Tejada.

This will be his chance. There is not an organization around that has worse starting pitching than the O's. If Patton is worthy, this is the team to try to find your spot. Beyond two major league starters, what do the O's have? I like his chances as long as he has recovered from his surgery. Also, I agree with Matt R., the Astros trade does not seem like we got that much in return. But then again, we can't espect much when Tejeda was involved in that seroids scandal at the time. We were just lucky to get him out of here.

Matt R; Have you seen Miggy's numbers from last year? He had a great April, and from there on was a total bust. He had 3 HRs in the second half in a ballpark very friendly to right handed hitters.

The guy is a defensive liability, had a cancerous attitude that had to be excised lest it infect the kids the O's were bringing on board, had an OPS of 729, and all for about 14 million per season.

Like Hernandez, just getting Miggy off the roster was a positive move. Adding Scott was a bonus. If any of the other guys they got eventually work out, so much the better.

No one seems to know{or has yet disclosed}whether Patton has thrown a baseball since the surgery, so it will be interesting to see where he is in his rehab when he reports. He may not even throw from a mound in spring training. My guess is that he will report to extended spring training then get some minor league starts later in the year.

he'll win 25 games and throw 11 shutouts. how's anyone going to make some sort of an educated guess about a guy less .3% of readers have ever seen pitch and the guy is coming off surgery. you're better off asking how much time miggy will get for lying to congress. which is funny considering the amount of times congressmen lie to each other and to the public.

All depends on how it goes in Spring Training. If Patton can pitch and pitch well, he may begin the season at Norfolk or Bowie, whichever has starts available - and where will all the other potential starters go to start the season.

If Patton (and Albers as well) does not blow up, break down or burn out, he should be an early season call up to Baltimore. If he cannot pitch - extended Spring Training until he can or has to be released.

Patton was supposedly the jewel of the Tejada trade. People who knew the Astros minor league system had almost universal praise for the guy-- more than they had for Albers, Scott, Costanzo or Sarfate.

And unloading Miguel Tejada was addition by subtraction. First of all, the guy was cranky and didn't lead by example. He'd get to the field late and whine and complain to the media.

And then there's the juicing allegations. I don't need a federal prosecutor to tell me the guy was on steroids. The total dissolution of his power stroke is evidence enough.

Even if we traded Tejada for Patton stright-up, it probably would have been worth it. I have high hopes for this guy-- more than I have for Albers.

I went to high school with patton and he was one of my good friends.

He was only upset about going to balt. because he's live and been in houston his whole life, it's where he wanted to be, but that won't change how hard he plays, and how much he wants to win.

As his pitches go, he's got a natural cutball that hit 92 on a regular basis in hs, and he has a pretty good changeup to go with it. If he develops a slider/curveball with any consistency he'll have a solid set of pitches.

Troys dealt with injuries here and there since i've known him but he always comes back strong. Shoulder surgery is different but I can see him doing the same thing he did for the astros; pitching anywhere from one game to 3 this year in the bigs, and hopefully setting himself up to be a key starter for them next year.

Cross your fingers if you're a baltimore fan or a patton fan.

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About Dean Jones Jr.
Dean Jones Jr.Dean Jones Jr. is the sports community coordinator at The Baltimore Sun. Following minor league baseball has always been one of his favorite hobbies. The smaller stadiums, intimate atmosphere and affordable prices allow everyone to see baseball played in its truest form. He enjoys tracking prospects as they progress from the lowest levels of a team’s farm system all the way up to the major leagues.
Follow @deanjonesjr on Twitter
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