Predict the future -- David Hernandez
How many Ravens fans watched the Super Bowl last night? If you didn't watch, I won't pass along the bad news about which team won. You can figure it out.
Last week, we shared our predictions for the upcoming season for Jason Berken, who seems to be overshadowed by the other pitching prospects in the Orioles' minor league system. I don't know if it's a sign of his anonymity amongst fans, but less people commented on the entry about Berken than the other young pitchers we've discussed.
Still, the fans that participated in the debate, for the most part, think he deserves an opportunity. As long as he continues to pitch with minimal walks and home runs, then the 25-year-old right-hander should definitely get a chance to prove he belongs in the major leagues.
With the Orioles' surplus of starting pitchers in the organization, Berken's long-term future could be in the bullpen. It seems plausible, but there's no reason to mess with success if he keeps performing well as a starter. I know Orioles fans would enjoy having less walks and home runs allowed by the starting rotation.
Speaking of pitchers who give up a lot of walks and home runs, let's discuss right-handed pitcher David Hernandez today.
In four seasons, the 23-year-old starting pitcher has allowed 41 home runs and 206 walks in 473 innings in the minor leagues. While pitching for the Double-A Bowie Baysox in 2008, Hernandez led the Eastern League with 71 walks in 141 innings. He surrendered 10 home runs, which is low compared to the 16 he gave up as a member of the Single-A Frederick Keys in 145 1/3 innings during the 2007 season.
Despite the high amount of walks and home runs, Hernandez only has a 3.94 ERA so far in his minor league career. He was 10-4 with a 2.68 ERA last season, which was the third-best ERA in the league. Hernandez, who had a 4.95 ERA for the Keys in 2007, reduced his ERA by more than two full runs last season.
It's pretty impressive that Hernandez, who the Orioles selected in the 16th round of the 2005 MLB draft, was able to pitch well despite his control issues in 2008. It remains to be seen, however, if the walks will catch up to him as he climbs the organizational ladder.
Personally, I think Hernandez is a pitcher who goes beyond statistics. I've seen him pitch in person several times, and he always seems to have solid command on the mound. In fact, I wouldn't even think about his control issues if I didn't already know about them from the statistics. Perhaps I've only watched Hernandez on good days, but there are definitely positive characteristics that could make him a successful major league pitcher in the future.
Hernandez should receive a good look in spring training, but he'll likely begin the season with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides. The Orioles know he needs to improve his control before earning a spot in the major leagues, but it's good to get the major league staff working with him.
In the best-case scenario, Hernandez will pitch the entire 2009 season in Norfolk. He'll cut down the walks and home runs, and have an ERA below 3.50. Like Berken, Hernandez could be one of the first players called up to the major leagues in the event of an injury, but that's only if he shows that he's capable of reducing the free passes. He might be able to pitch out of trouble in the minor leagues, but it gets a lot tougher when you're facing the best hitters in professional baseball.
What are your thoughts about Hernandez? Do you believe he should be considered a strong candidate to pitch for the Orioles, or are you tired of pitchers with a high number of walks? Do you think Hernandez will ever be able to improve his control? Does it matter?
Let me hear your predictions about Hernandez's future with the organization.
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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:
• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Jason Berken
• Brian Matusz
• Lou Montanez
• Hayden Penn
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters
Comments
Hernandez's most important stat is 540 ks in 468 IP. He misses bats. If he doesn't solve his walks problem he's a likely candidate for the back of the pen. His home runs allowed will likely go down this year just because he's pitching at Norfolk.
Posted by: LJ | February 2, 2009 11:45 AM
I believe Hernandez will have a spot in the rotation sometime this season.
Posted by: Don Smith | February 2, 2009 1:03 PM
Good description of what you saw in him. I would like to see how he does in spring training and in AAA before giving him a shot in the majors.
Assuming he does really well in spring training, I'd still let him start in AAA.
Posted by: Light Years | February 2, 2009 1:23 PM
Improving at every level and the K ratio continues to be impressive. This is the type of power arm (statistically) that could see some longevity as a reliever if all else fails. Teams will stick with power arms a little longer then others.
If the numbers progress in Norfolk I can see this guy bumping Patton and Waters as top of the "bubble" pitchers and could be a very pleasant surprise.
Posted by: Rob in Va | February 2, 2009 1:49 PM
I think Hernandez is the real deal. I hope and do believe he will be in the middle of the rotation in 2010 and will be a work horse. Smart and a real good attitude, one of the nicest young men I have met. Besides that he really did not get lit up by homeruns at Bowie, I do not know where that came from, some wildness but always finds a way out of a jam.
Posted by: cb coach | February 2, 2009 1:52 PM
One of those guys (Berken, Bergesen, or Hernandez) is going to force his way into the starting rotation out of spring training.
Posted by: Drewdy | February 2, 2009 2:19 PM
Norfolk will hide some of his home run problems. The way I see it only one pitcher is a lock for this horrifying rotation. In my opinion anyone who can throw the ball 60' 6" on less than two hops should get a long look from the Orioles.
Posted by: Dale | February 2, 2009 3:19 PM
I like David Hernandez. Anyone with a era under 3 and the stuff he has should be looked at hard by the Birds. Even with that number of walks, it's only 4 1/2 per 9 innings. . Other than Guthrie, who came close to that last year? And 2 KO's to every walk. One HR every other game isn't that bad either. Good pitchers often give up HR's.If Kranitz has the time to work with him and he is coachable, the number of walks should go down. I think a year in AAA and he may just be a sleeper for the rotation in 2010.
Posted by: woodieman | February 2, 2009 4:16 PM
Randy Johnson:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsra05.shtml
As soon as Randy lowered his walks to under 100 a season, his Win loss record jumped big time! THAT WAS at age 29!!!!!
We tend to give up on people to soon.
All the young ones need time. Age 24 and 25 we are ready to call them busts if they are not Great allready.
Look at history, Using Randy Johnson as an example he rounded into top form at Age 29. He was wild, then finally got it under control.
Walks can be fixed, but maybe not overnight.
Posted by: Doug M | February 2, 2009 5:02 PM
I wouldn't call one HR every 14 innings (2008) a "problem." Even one every nine innings (2007) isn't exactly terrible. The walks are another matter.
Posted by: Nashville Os Fan | February 2, 2009 5:18 PM
BEing out here in Colorado, I don't hear anything about O's minor leaguers that you guys don't put on the blogs. That said, Hernandez sounds like a real keeper. I like the K/IP ratio, and the fact that he's a lefty. I'm just hoping to live long enough to see the O's compete again (started rooting in 1958)
Posted by: Noel Johnston | February 2, 2009 8:25 PM
Strikeout pitchers often give up more HRs. I am not at all concerned about his HR total. The walks on the other hand are a career killer.
All O's pitching farmhands should be called in for a sit down and get career counselled about how you will need to update your resume', upgrade your wardrobe and hit the pavement looking for a "real" job if you don't learn to throw strikes...especially strike one. The path to the majors is through the strike zone.
Posted by: Doug | February 3, 2009 8:12 AM
I'd love to see Hernandez be successful at the major league level. Quite honestly, however, I'm tired of the Orioles leading the league in walks allowed. Best case scenario is he cuts down on the walks and becomes a top of the rotation starter. Worst case is he doesn't cut down on the walks and becomes Bobby Witt or (God forbid) another Daniel Cabrera. I have no problems with Hernandez pitching 2 or 3 seasons at AAA getting his control issues worked out instead of being like Cabrera who was pushed to the majors after only 5 AA starts. A wild Hernandez isn't going to help the team in the future. An under control Hernandez could be a dominating pitcher.
Posted by: mstrchef13 | February 3, 2009 8:14 AM
Call me an idiot (and alot of people do) but I thought you were supposed to leave your wildness back in high school. I mean, if you're crazy wild, you still get drafted? No group of pitchers anywhere else in baseball walks as many guys as the O's do. And, obviously, it kills them. Nothing is more maddening than a timely walk .... other than that patented "man on third two out balk" the O's have perfected.
Posted by: oldetoys | February 3, 2009 10:04 AM
With due respect Doug, do you really think that all you have to do to get pitchers to throw strikes is to sit them down and tell them too? I learned that when I was about 8 years old throwing to my father in the driveway and years before I ever knew what a pitching coach was.
Throwing with precision is a God given talent which a pitching coach can do no more than help to refine.
Posted by: bob c | February 3, 2009 10:53 AM
This guy has the potential to be Daniel Cabrera with a better head on his shoulders. He has absolutely dominating stuff, so the rest has to come from upstairs. I look forward to seeing him take the next step at Norfolk, then again I probably won't make it there!
Posted by: Kevin Lynch | February 5, 2009 11:15 AM