Much like Rowell, Erbe has time to straighten out his problems before the organization has to consider giving up on him, but those home runs really bother me. He is starting to seem like the next in line among the long line of recent pitching prospects the O's have had that have tremendous power, but no finesse or technique.

As I was reading about the home runs he has given up it brought up this question in my mine. How many of the home runs were on second or third at bats for the hitter? If many of the HR's were the second or third time around the batting order, then with his strength as a strike out pitcher he may be better suited as a reliever. If he doesn't develop as a starter, then this may be his calling.

Brando Erbe is still young, but i liked his improvement last season. Moving up to AA bowie will be a challenge, but I think that Larry McCall, the bowie pitching coach can help refine his tools. If his control continues to improve, perhaps his confidence will increase and he won't groove so many dingers. Mayb it's a reach, but I think he will start slowly, but end up with 15 wins, 3.80 era and 200 strike outs. He will start and finish the year at Bowie and move up to Norfolk in 2010. My hope is for him to reach the majors in 2011.

I am a former graduate of McDonogh and have caught for Brandon. First hand i can say he has amazing potential and amazing stuff. Anyone who throws in the upper 90's to 100 is a sight to behold in a decreased steriods era. However, from my standpoint on his team, he had a overwhelming capability to become rattled. Losing his control, like you said, is a problem that seems to follow him at all levels. It reminds me of Danial Cabrera, who could be so dominate at times and then abysmal at others. We all know how he turned out...but i hope this can be different!

I think that he is young enough and has a decent strikeout to walks ratio,that if he gets the era under 4 this year , he has a decent chance to play in the majors in some capacity. A lot of pitchers are late bloomers so he has 4 or 5 years left to develop into at least a back of the bullpen major leaguer.A club cannot have too many pitchers in the farm system. He could always be used as an additional player to seal a deal down the line.

Dean, I think that your Bowie projections are right on the money, maybe even conservative in ERA. (I don't project wins). If he maintains his rate of a strikeout per inning and gets the BB down below 3 per game, then I think he'll move into the upper tier of pitching prospects in the organization and in baseball.

He's pretty close to being there already. In fact during most of his starts last year, he was as good as anybody in baseball. What drags his stats down is that he had four or five really horrible games. But when he was on, which was most of the time, he was really good. Obviously it all counts, but with young pitchers I tend to discount the occasional rough outing because often they are working on a new pitch or some change in the delivery. When Erbe was good, which was most of the time, he was as good as anyone in the system.

I don't worry much about HR as an isolated stat. For one thing, most of those HRs came in those few games. The more important stat to me is his hits per 9 innings, which is low -- 7.2, well under a hit per inning, which indicates that he was hard to hit.

AA is a big step up, and I won't be surprised if he struggkles early. But I do think that he will spend all year at Bowie, and by the second half I expect him to be dominant once again.

I know that there's only so much you can tell from statistics. However, the numbers are pretty clear. He is a power pitcher with some control issues. Typically, power pitchers are up in the zone. High fastballs get hammered. Thus, the high homerun rate.

If Erbe can be more consistently down in the strike zone, this will help his control and his tendency for big flies. I saw him once at Aberdeen (he was 17). He looked overpowering and hittable at the same time. It's kinda hard to explain. Also, keep in mind that the year he spent in low-A Delmarva he only gave up 2 HRs in 115 IP, so he can keep the ball in the ballpark from time to time.

I think this year Erbe continues to make strides towards consistency and therefore evolves more as a pitcher. I think he wins more than he loses and maintains his ~3-1 K/BB ratio because he does have the ability to miss bats. I definitely think it would be harsh to consider him fading "into anonymity as another draft pick who didn’t work out for the organization" if this season doesnt return him to an elite Orioles pitching prospect. Sure, partially because the O's have added new great prospects but he still has good stuff.

As far as his future is concerned, if he fails to make strides in the next year and a half I think you have to start developing him as a back-end bullpen guy. He has fire in his veins as he throws and his ability to get the strike out is powerful. He could essentially cut out the change up (although he's made incredible strides with that pitch so far) and just throw gas and sliders. I think that is a very viable option if he doesnt pan out as a starter for whatever reason.

I really enjoy this columns' reviews of O's minor league prospects. Since many of the players now on the O's major league roster won't be there if the team ever becomes a contender and management won't pursue quality free agents, the minor league players are our only hope of a compettive future team. Great columns.

Erbe is one of my favorites, and I think he'll be with the Orioles in a few years, perhaps as a reliever.

I saw him pitch for Bluefield in a game at Kingsport when he was only 17. He pitched two innings and simply blew away the hitters.

He had a very unusual delivery and was explosive. I've never seen anyone at the level with better stuff in the games I've watched in the Appalachian League.

I believe Erbe will eventually make it to the "bigs" as a starter and I am not concerned with the home runs at this age. As Erbe matures and figures out how to pitch instead of throw the HR's will come down, although Camden Yards will not help in that process. This kid just needs to keep throwing strikes and not get caught up in the hype of the other talented pitchers around him. Power arms always have a place in the organization. As loing as he throws strikes he can give up as many solo home runs as he wishes, just do not give free passes in front of those "dingers".

When I hear great fastball, high SO count and high HR count I think of power pitchers of the past. Robin Roberts being one of the best examples. I believe a guy named Palmer, who SO a lot of batters, gave up a fair number of HRs also. I guess the key is..are they solo HRs when they don't count, or game killers. Fastball SO pitchers tend to give up more HR's than guys throwing a lot of junk low in the strike zone. This year should give us a good idea of how he's goinf to fare. I would rather see him take an extra yr in the minors to get it right than rush him too much and ruin his confidence.

All the HR's allowed tells me he's pitching in or near the strike zone. He was one of the youngest players in the CAROLINA LEAGUE in 2007 and learning with each outing. Injuries set his progress back. BOWIE is the right level for ERBE this season and the organization doesn't have to rush him like it's done in the past with LIZ, OLSON, LOEWEN, and seemed to try to do with PENN. Taking the time with BRANDON will pay dividends in the future.

He's got a killer change-up too. I watched him throw mid 90s for the first few innings and around the 4th inning he started mixing in some change-ups. He made some of the batters look silly. We went to the game to see Weiters but were also impressed with Erbe.

I think Erbe will pan out in the end for the Orioles. I saw him play in high school and once in Single A and he's one of the most dominant pitchers I've seen. His fastball is routinely in the mid to upper 90's and he works it with a nasty changeup. I hope the Orioles don't go wrong like they have in the past, bringing young, un-developed pitchers up way too early like Adam Loewen, Hayden Penn and Radhames Liz and let Brandon develop into his body. He's 6'4 and only 185 lbs, he still has alot to fill out. I think he will either be a middle of the rotation guy or the Orioles next Chris Ray type pitcher within the next 2 years.