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January 29, 2009

Predict the future -- Jason Berken

Thanks to everyone for the predictions about first baseman Brandon Snyder.

Before last season, Snyder’s prospect status was being questioned, but most people now seem to agree that the former catcher is one of the first players mentioned during any discussion about the Orioles’ future roster.

The difference a year makes is amazing.

Remember, it could just as quickly go in the other direction. That’s why it’s important for Snyder to build on last year's success in order to remain in the organization’s long-term plans. The 6-foot-2, 205-pound infielder seems to be fully recovered from injuries that bothered him in the past, so look for the offensive numbers to increase again in 2009.

Now, let’s discuss the primary focus of this entry – starting pitcher Jason Berken.

If I mentioned the 25-year-old right-hander prior to last season, I’m sure it would have been met with head-scratching bewilderment by the majority of Orioles fans. In fact, I’d guarantee that would still be the reply from at least 25 percent of Orioles fans now.

Several other pitching prospects in the Orioles’ minor league system overshadow the 6-foot, 210-pound starting pitcher. Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen, Brandon Erbe, David Hernandez, Brian Matusz, Chorye Spoone and Chris Tillman are all discussed more frequently than Berken, but he was one of the most reliable pitchers for the Double-A Bowie Baysox in 2008.

Berken, who the Orioles selected in the sixth round of the 2006 MLB draft, was 12-4 with a 3.58 ERA in 26 games (25 starts) for the Baysox last season. He had 125 strikeouts and only walked 38 hitters in 145 2/3 innings. Berken surrendered nine home runs in 2008, which was less than his three more popular Baysox teammates – Bergesen, Tillman and Hernandez.

As a member of the Single-A Frederick Keys during the 2007 season, Berken was 9-9 with a 4.53 ERA in 27 games (26 starts). He had 124 strikeouts and 49 walks in 151 innings for the Keys. In his first professional season, Berken was 1-4 with a 2.80 ERA in nine games (eight starts) for the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds in 2006. He had 46 strikeouts and only issued five walks in 45 innings for the IronBirds.

While pitching in college at Clemson, he missed the entire 2005 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Admittedly, Berken hasn’t suffered any setbacks in the past three years, but that’s something to consider when contemplating his future. The surgery may have made him a better pitcher, honestly, because Berken now uses his control and off-speed pitches to be successful.

If you’re looking for more information about Berken, check out this recent article on greenbaypressgazette.com. The piece includes some background content about Berken, who is from the Green Bay area, as well as some photographs of the pitcher at his baseball camp earlier this month.

Berken should start the upcoming season with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides. Throughout his career, Berken's control has been his best asset, and that won't change in 2009.

If he stays in Norfolk for the entire season, look for Berken to have about four times more strikeouts than walks, and his ERA should be around his career average (3.90). If the Orioles need to promote someone during the season, however, don't be surprised if Berken is at the top of the list.

What are your expectations for Berken this season? Will he make his debut in the major leagues sometime in 2009? If so, how do you think he'll perform?

------------------------

Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

Jake Arrieta
Brad Bergesen
Brian Matusz
Lou Montanez
Hayden Penn
Bill Rowell
Brandon Snyder
Chris Tillman
Justin Turner
Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 12:30 AM | | Comments (15)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Comments

The people who liked Bergeson should be going wild for this guy. Very similiar numbers except he struck out almost twice as many. I see him at AAA and with a better chance to make the major leagues than Bergeson.

It's nice to see that McPhail has introduced the idea of the control pitcher back into the organization. After leading the league in walks the past two seasons, it will be nice to see guys like Uehara throw the ball over the plate consistently. Berken is in that mold, and while no one will confuse our staff with the Minnesota Twins, the change in philosophy will benefit Berken more than any other prospect. I agree that he starts in Norfolk and has a chance to be a mid-year callup when the inevitable injury happens to open up the rotation spot. I see Berken as a Scott Baker/Carlos Silva type, potentially a #3 but more likely a solid #4 or #5 for many years.

Walks have really killed the pitchers in this org.for along time.Why should it take 80 pitches to get through 4 innings? If Berken can maintain his control he should be a decent back end of the rotation starter.All things being equal,the pitchers that throw strikes should get the first chances on the ml roster.

I am really glad to see this guy get some coverage. Given his numbers, he certainly looks like a keeper to me. I wonder if the O's powers-that-be are reluctant to sign FA pitchers because they have that much confidence in the guys coming along.

May not be starts for Berken at Norfolk until middle of the season. Hard to predict when Berken gets chance in Baltimore - there are so many starters rated ahead of him. Expect Berken to get his chance no later than mid season 2011. Sooner if others blow-up or break-down.

Berken gets lost in the shuffle, but has some very good numbers. If he does well at AAA, he deserves a September call-up and the kid probably gets a spring training invitation for 2010.
With his control, he has a leg up on the minor league pitching prospects. Berken might actually get his opportunity to pitch for the O's this year if an injury occurs, due to lack of depth / talent at the major and minor league levels.
Ideally, let the kid continue to develop in AAA, and give him a September call-up.

I have always liked Hayden Penn. I have kept waiting for him to finally put everything together. It is just my opinion but I think Camden Yards does to pitchers who must pitch in it regularly, what The Green Monster in Fenway does to hitters. When the humidity is up it is a launching pad.
Pitchers start nibbling around the low outside edge, then you start walking hitters and kaboom. This is what has happened all to frequently with Oriole pitchers.

A couple of years ago Baseball America listed him as their "sleeper" pick in the Orioles system - a guy who could move quickly through the organization. His K/BB and HR numbers are very good - he could be a nice back-of-the-rotation guy.

hahaha who the hell is he??
let me get this straight..
he is a 25 year old "prospect" who cant command the strike zone and hada an era around 5 in single A?? does that sound about right? he has no future with the ballclub not with the prospects we have, hernandez,bergerson,tillman,arrieta,matuz lol this shouldnt even be asked hell prolly be traded as the player to be named later

He gets a shot at some point this year. Good control, decent stuff and a pitcher from a winning college program. Seems undervalued much like John Maine was in the organization, sounds like the same kind of pitcher too. Not a front end starter but good serviceable innings guy and 2007 should be ignored coming off major surgery. He'll have a good year and at 25 is probably more mature to deal with the coming promotion.

Interesting that people are giving AM credit for this one. He and the other three core starters were the past management. So please give credit where credit is due. The one thing I truly believe is that he will come up in late 2009 and serve out of the bullpen. He is 25 now and has the college and at that point will have three years minor league experience behind him. With Tillman, Bergessen, Hernandez and Berken there is a lot of talent there, but they will not all be starters at the MLB level and I predict that he will be a reliever.

I like Berken, but I do question what his ultimate role will be in the majors. Like Bergesen, he has good stuff, but not great. They both have put together nice minor league careers so far, and look like good bets to make the majors at some point in the next year or two. However, I'm not so quick to put them in the back of a rotation. I imagine that one of them could end up there, but I think that both of them could be better suited in the bullpen.

The scouting report on both of them shows a lack of stamina, as they tire and their stuff flattens out around the 4th or 5th inning. Sometimes they can last a little longer when they are extra efficient with their pitch counts, and sometimes they start to get a second wind when they smell a win (esp. Bergesen), but that still raises my eyebrows. Bergesen has also had a tough time with lefties in his career.

hey John,obviously your dyslexia is in full bloom again,he commands the strike zone very very well,and many a major league pitcher has struggled his first year in the minors.Just so you know he had 249 strikeouts and 87 walks in 298 and 2/3 innings the last 2 years.Seems too me that is pretty good control of the strike zone.With about a 3.9 combined era over the last 2 years and a 21-13 record.Sounds like a keeper to me.

A guy who gives up few walks and rarely a home run. I like that combination with the O's new focus on team speed and defense. He gets a shot if he earns a shot ... bottom line. My feeling is that he will earn a shot soon and wish him luck ultimately helping the big club.

Berken has no shot at rebounding this season-nor the next. He won't have a spot in the order after this hideous year, and Rich Hill will take his place.

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About Dean Jones Jr.
Dean Jones Jr.Dean Jones Jr. is the sports community coordinator at The Baltimore Sun. Following minor league baseball has always been one of his favorite hobbies. The smaller stadiums, intimate atmosphere and affordable prices allow everyone to see baseball played in its truest form. He enjoys tracking prospects as they progress from the lowest levels of a team’s farm system all the way up to the major leagues.
Follow @deanjonesjr on Twitter
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