Start him at triple-A. He has already proved hes ready for the next level, so bring it on. They will make a spot for him knowing that he a future starter of the Orioles.

I say let him start the season in Bowie. Too many times have the O's rushed prospects to the majors that were not ready, remember DC? If Chris continues where he left off last season, then promote him to Norfolk.

My opinion is that triple A is overrated he should be in Bowie where the Orioles can see him close by. He should be fine to join the big club in July or August. The fact is the club does not have a chance with or without him. He is the one pitcher that I would rather bring along a little slower than the rest.

I wouldn't have a problem with Tillman starting 09 at Bowie to work on his command and consistency. As good as he was last season, he walked too many and had trouble going past six innings. This suggests that he wasn't efficient, and that his command wasn't as good as it could have been.

He has to get this worked out, because big league hitters are generally more patient than aa guys.

He'll still be young for AA, and if he gets the rough edges worked off, his stay at Norfolk may be short.

There's absolutely no reason to rush Tillman. I'd actually be fine with him spending all of '09 in AA, getting primed for a 3/4 season in AAA next year and then a spot in the rotation come 2011 when the rebuilding process should be coming to fruition.

It kind of hurts to think of things that far out, but the last thing we need is another prospect arriving in Baltimore before he's ready.

I'm SO tired of the whole mentality of "rushing players to the majors".

It's the lamest excuse for a player's lack of success.

A young guy will get thrown out attempting to steal and Jim Palmer doing the commentary will chalk it up to "not enough experience".

Sorry Jim, but that's a load of crap. These people have been playing baseball since they were in kindergarden, if not before. If they haven't learned how to steal a base by now... they never will.

The O's made the right decision with D-Cab. He wasn't rushed. He wasn't ruin. He has more talent and potential than most of the pitchers in the league, but he doesn't have the mental makeup to be a successful player... and he never will. The same could be said for hundred of players.

Look at I-Rod. He was starting for the Rangers when he was 18! A-Rod when he was 19! Griffey when he was 20! These guys started young and remained there, because they BELONGED there.

In football, it's the difference between Kyle Boller and Joe Flacco. One is a spazz who was never gonna be a great player no matter how many games he played. The other has presence, poise, and mental toughess, and BELONGS to be where he is.

What is the point of having these pitchers blow the ball by AA and AAA hitters, only to get rocked using the same successful pitches against "major league" hitters. If they're gonna learn to get hitters out, who better to face, then the best hitters in the world night after night?

Baseball is a game ruled by failure. The best hitters in the history of baseball failed 7 times out of 10. The best pitchers in history walk 1-2 guys a game, give up 2-3 hits a game, and 2-3 runs a game. If these young pitchers can't get over the fact that major league hitters CAN and WILL knock them around from time to time, they should go find another job.

I say throw Tillman and Weiters into the fire! Screw Zaun, make Weiters our starting catcher from Opening Day. Make Tillman our #5 starter and let's see what he's got. There's no better place to log some educational innings than the majors. What have we got to lose? The pennant? Let's be serious guys.

And don't give me the same old "what if his confidence gets bruised, he'll be ruined". What a load of horsesh***

Tillman should start the year in Bowie, where he can act as the rotation's anchor. We need pitchers who are capable of being bulldogs, and that means fostering a competitive attitude in the minor leagues. Tillman should learn to dominate at low levels, and then earn a quick promotion to the majors. AAA isn't the proving ground it used to be, especially since the majority of blue chip major league prospects jump straight from AA these days - adding to the perception that AAA is purgatory for prospects who haven't broken through.

Tillman needs to build up arm strength, work on his control, and learn to be pitch-efficient. Let him go deeper into the games.

Also, you get a better idea of his make-up since Reimold, Montanez, and Wieters won't be at AA providing offensive help. He'll be on an island, and I think the higher expectations against lower competition should be a good challenge for him. If he struggles, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Orioles promote him to AAA - not because he warrants it, but as a confidence builder. If that happens, he spends 2010 at AAA.

At this stage in Tillman's career, working on commanding all of his pitches is the most important thing. Not the quality of the opposing hitters.

Start him in Bowie and then move him to AAA. We know that the Orioles are a long way from contending so why rush him. Let him gain confiedence along with the other young guys and then bring them up. I see Tillman having a solid year 15 and 6, 2.83 ERA and 186 strike outs

How long have we been waiting for O's pitchers to improve their command, it never happens. Liz and Olson still can't throw strikes consistently.It's not something that just goes away.The O's have dumbed down their expectations of thier starters to 5 innings being a quality start. In that paradigm,Tillman should be moved up to Norfolk and just work on getting through 6 innings.There's going to be a ton of chances for someone to crack the rotation this year. If he's at Norfolk going 6 innings that would fast track him to the majors. 2009 is a throw away year anyway,let it go to developing the young starters that have a real chance.

Agreed, give him an easy start to the season at Bowie. If he looks confident after 3 months, move him along.

What kind of command does he have with how many pitches?

We've had pitchers who were dominant in the minors and brought up too soon.

The O's suck and it's going to remain that way until these pitchers FULLY develop.

Suffer and wait.

Unfortunately, it won't matter where Tillman pitches in 2009 if he's in the O's system.

4 1/3 walks per 9 innings is out of line for AA, and will be even higher at AAA and higher yet at the major league level - all due to the tendency of better pitch selections by hitters as they get higher in the "food chain."

The one thing we've learned about O's pitcher development is that their minor leaguers are consistently inconsistent in the strike zone - and it hasn't gotten better once they got to the major league level.

All of the O's pitchers can't be that bad. Coaches and others involved in pitcher development have to be to blame.

Not enough real attention is given to w.h.i.p. stats for pitchers in the O's minors; and absolutely no attention is given for TOTAL BASES which is by far the best true barometer for rating pitching skills.

Lack of successful development is a huge reason why O's young pitchers have imploded in the majors after just a start or two once the adrenalin rush is over.

It is not a coincidence that the O's best starter is Guthrie who was developed in another team's system. But watch out. Guthrie's first year with the O's he walked 2.41 per 9; His 2nd year he ballooned to 2.74 per 9.

On one hand there's what I'd like to happen and on the other hand there's what I think is best for Tillman.
I would love to see him start at Triple-A and after a couple of months get the call to the majors, but as the majority of O's prospects have shown, that's quite dangerous and it can slow down his progress instead of accelerate it.
The same thing happens with Wieters taking an opening day spot in the roster, the difference is that additionally you'll start his service time before...
Start Tillman at Double-A and Wieters at Triple-A.
If he is really ready to make the jump, he'll be at Norfolk before the break.

It does seem that the O's keep their best guys in AA Bowie, so that might happen again.

In my mind, I'd have all three top arms in camp, getting a taste of the big leagues, and I'd put those big three together at AAA to get used to playing (and hopefully winning) together.

As for the big-league club, I hope we get to see some of the guys who've pitched well but aren't regarded as big-time prospects. Guys like Bergeson and Hernandez. I'd especially like to see Bergeson, who doesn't walk anybody, get a serious look. That would be a nice change. Probably his low strikeout rate means he'll get knocked around in the big leagues, but let's give him a shot, with the pretty damn good defense Andy's assembled.

Great job Dean. And Happy New Year to you also. Not living in the Baltimore area makes your blog important in keeping up with the O's. I look forward to enjoying the upcoming season with you.

Tillman should start at Bowie and get reestablish his game. There's no reason to rush him anywhere. If he's doing well moving him to Norfolk would make good sense.

I think it all depends on what the professional pitching coaches are looking for. Is Tillman able to command both sides of the black with his fastball? Does he have an effective off speed pitch he can get over the plate at any time? What is it the Orioles are looking for in the way of improvement?

Having seen only the statistics and not the actual pitcher, I hope in general the Orioles find the right balance between development and opportunity. I'd like to see Tillman in the Majors as soon as he is ready.

ml

I believe Tillman should start the year in Bowie. From what I understand he can use some work as far as his control is concerned. He is so young; therefore, I think we should allow enough time for him to mature at each level. With the current state of the Orioles, there is no need to rush any of the "Big Three". 2009 is a wash as far as I'm concerned so let's give these guys the time needed to perfect their craft.

Chris Tillman did a great job in Bowie in 2008. He should be given a spring invite to gain some major league experience with the understanding that he will be going back to Bowie to start. WHEN he does well and gets established at Bowie he should absolutely be moved up to Norfolk. He should not be rushed to the major leagues. He is still young and raw but the fact that he did so well last year shows that he has the capability to pitch in the big leagues. It will be important for Chris to show that he can at least sustain what he did but at the same time gain additional knowledge and experience that he will need to be a big league pitcher. Like Wieters, I would agree with a promotion for Chris Tillman sometime around late July or early August. The only difference is that I see Wieters going to the Orioles and I see Tillman going to the Tides. He may and probably will struggle somewhat for Norfolk at times. In 2010 he should again get a spring invite to get additional experience, this time with the understanding that he will be starting at Norfolk. Allow him the chance to prove that he can be a consistent starter and that he can get batters out. Then and only then, should he get a chance to go to the Orioles, possible out of the bull pen at first as a long reliever with some possible spot starts. If he does well in 2010 then allow him to come to spring training in 2011 (gosh that seems so far away) with the understanding that he will be competing for a spot on the O's roster. I predict that Chris Tillman will be a starter but probably at the back end of the rotation, somewhere between the 3rd and 5th spot in the rotation. Since we're talking about pitching I also predict that Brian Matusz is on the fast track but not as fast as we would like. I see him pitching for the O's on a regular basis sometime in 2010, probably not in the spring though. He will be a no. 2-4 guys. Jake Arrieta will not be a starter for the O's. I see him as being someone we trade for a hitter or an established pitcher. What I mean by established is not someone like Mark Hendrickson. I mean someone who has consistently established himself to be a front line starter and not someone who is at the twilight of his career. If Jake Arrieta did end up in an O's uniform I predict that he will be a reliever in the big leagues. My hope is that all three (Tillman, Matusz & Arrieta) become 1,2,3 starters.....in any order they wish.

Dean, Happy New Year!! Pitching is what wins in MLB. When you have a pitching prospect, and don't forget, this kid is only 20, take your time to develop his skills and let him mature. To me, Tillman starts 2009 in AA and, if warranted, based on results, gets a promotion to AAA later in the year. For 2010, he should start the season at AAA, and POSSIBLY give him a sniff at the major league level with the September call-ups. If this kid is "the goods", he'll have his shot at the starting Orioles rotation in 2011. No predictions on performance...just hoping he continues to progress and stays injury free.

Start him at AA Bowie. This will be like an extention of spring training. By May he can move up to Norfolk. He needs to progress at a regular pace. Guys like Bunker, Palmer, and company were moved at a similar pace and were pitching in Baltimore by the time they were 19- 21 years old. I believe that if it worked well then it will work now. We need to be young if it is workable. These guys have talent and the right progression will show them that there is a confidnece by the management that they will succeed. Tillman will be ready to show his stuff in Oriole Park by September call ups. A solid year at Norfolk is in his immediate future. I see him winning 12-15 games. 100 plus strikeouts. ERA around 3.25

Give him 5 starts at Bowie, if he totally dominates send him to Norfolk. If he continues to pitch well there, give him a few starts in September on the big league team. That should set him up to be in the rotation in 2010, with maybe Arrieta. Arrieta should start at Bowie and maybe get a late call-up to Norfolk in the second half of the season if he dominates AA. Hopefully Matusz can handle Frederick and maybe get a late season call up to Bowie this year. Then in 2010 you could take the same approach as I suggested for Tillman above.

If he was 11-4 with a 3.18 for the season at Bowie, he has nothing left to prove. Let him try his hand at AAA; He has the stuff. That does not mean rushing him up to the O's, but facing the older hitters in AAA who don't swing at everything will help him out control wise.

1. Tillman is one of the 3 best O's pitching prospects.
2. He started 28 games at Bowie last
year and had a respectable .318 ERA.
3. The O's are starving for starters on the major league staff.

Total of above: a promotion to the Tides or O's

The guy has pitched an entire year in AA and clearly has earned the promotion to at least AAA. Holding him back after he has earned a reward is just as damaging as pushing him too fast. There's just as much harm done by stagnation. What do you think he needs to prove or improve at AA?

If you have 5 starters better than Tillman at AAA, then keep him in AA. If not, put him on the AAA roster. Not much difference but he will face better hitting at triple A. Keep him in the minors all of 2009, save for a September call up if he's not in a playoff run in Bowir or Norfolk. I'll throw one caveat into the mix: if he's 12-0 with a sub 2.50 ERA in the minors, call him up in July or August.

O's Fans-it is most certainly the right move to start Tillman at Bowie in 2009. After 10 starts maximum, the scouting staff can see if he's in solid enough shape to go the 125-145 IP in Norfolk and then have any gas left for Sept in Balt.

I imagine that would be a difficult evaluation because Tillman is so young and could get off like a horse before hitting a wall, but I have a feeling, like most of the posters here, that his talent is really too much for the majority of Double-A bats.

I expect him to log 180-200 IP as the Orioles #3 starter at worst in 2010 and win between 9013 games, while losing mire, but striking out .82/IP and showing the stuff that makes him better than Bedard that season and going forward every season from there.

That alone makes me have a great deal of respect for MacPhail and his 'plan' of patience and arm acquisition

Go O's, every year, even this one

I say trade him to the Yankees or Boston for cash. That way PA can will have more money and continue with his plan to destroy the current MLB system by having both the Orioles and the Nationals go belly up and say I told MLB we could not support two teams in this region.

All part of the plan.

Definitely at AA Bowie. When he can CONSISTENTLY pitch 7 innings or more without walking anyone, then he's ready to move up. Control is everything and that's the one thing the O's don't put enough emphasis on in the farm system. Throw "Strike 1, Strike 2" not "ball 1, ball 2, ball 3, home run." The truest thing ever said about pitching is that "you need to get the batter out at a 2 ball or less count, never go to 3 balls."

I knew Tillman was the real deal when he walked out on the field in Binghamton this year. Any pitcher wearing the # 22 in the O's organization has already stated what he's made of. This guy will perform whereever they place him in 2009. It will be a pleasure to watch him and the other quality arms we have in the organization. This hopefully will be the last year of frustration for all of us. Keep the faith!

Any word on Troy Patton? I'm excited to see what this guy can do, but I hear NOTHING about him. That makes me think I've missed something.

Jimmy - listing the exceptions to the rule doesnt comprise a valid argument. You list three hall of famers and say if they can do it, anyone can. You might as well say that if Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth can hit 714 home runs, anyone can.

I would guess that no more than 10% of the little league or high school coaches are competent enough to teach the finer points of baseball skills.

Confidence is everything and it is built by being consistently put in positions you are equipped to handle. Add in that these guys are still developing physically and the whole concept of not rushing a player is totally valid despite your scatalogical references

I hope he starts at Bowie. He's only been in professional ball for 2 1/2 years, and he isn't even 21 yet. There are many more examples of pitchers being ruined by being brought up too early than by hitters being brought up too early. He still has a high walk rate and for his entire career he is averaging 5 IP per start. He needs to stretch out. He should be in AA throwing 7 or 8 innings every time out before the O's entertain ideas of moving him up on the chain.

If Tillman stays in AA, as he should, he'll win 14-15 games with an ERA of 3.11 . If they rush him to AAA, and this desperate team most certainly will, he'll get 7 wins with AA and 3 wins with AAA, for a season total of 10 wins with ERA of 4.10.
Give him 2 yrs before bringing him to the major league level & the Os will get some good service ( a couple 12-15 win seasons) before he bolts to Boston or NY.

The funny thing about the Orioles organization is that the front office always believes that there is talent in the minor league system, while all the rest of the country thinks of that so-called talent as a joke. We have personnel who always overrate players.

I say start the kid in AA again- he has a few bugs that he needs to work out. He's got some freaking nasty stuff, but he needs to learn how to harness it. I'd also like to see him try to develop a stronger change up- that would make his fastball that much more deadly.

Jimmy, those kind of players come around ONCE in a lifetime. Pitchers take a lot longer to develop than position players.

I'd like our staff to try to work with him in spring training, maybe they can give him some tips and help him gain some control. At the very least, I don't want him in the majors until he gets the walk rate down to about 3-4 walks per 9 innings.

At the very least, I think that kid could be a KILLER closer for us due to his nasty stuff. I see his future as being bright.

DSpedden, why then is the Orioles farm system ranked so high? Baseball America is probably going to have our farm system listed in the top 10, if not the top 5.

Unless Mcphail finds some good pitching soon , we're going to have another season like last year . And we won't have Cabrera to thrill us with some good games that he was able to have to give us a little hope for the future . As for free agents , there are none . The two that the Yankees got have to prove themselves in the new Yankee stadium before we can say they got a good deal . They can throw money around to obtain good personnel but can't make the plays with them like they would like to see . Eventually after a couple of years some of our prospects will come through but time is runing out on the fan's patience so don't expect too much from the Orioles this year . A good pitcher will keep you in the game until your hitters can generate some offense . I hope we will get a couple of quality pitchers through trades but don't expect it for this year .

It is hard to predict how ST will go yet but start Tillman, Matusz, and Arrietta at AA plus Alexander or Berkens or Spoone with Bergensen and others starting at AAA and move up whoever proves they deserve to go no preconcieved choices..

Tillman is a top prospect because he's a 20-year-old who's blown away AA, where the average player is 23. That differential is extreme (and portends well for his future).

Tillman is a massive injury risk because he's a 20-year-old who's blown away AA, and pitching to AA- and AAA hitters is a comparatively more serious strain on the arm than blowing away kids his own age in the low minors.

Any halfway intelligent organization knows this. So, if the Orioles are halfway intelligent, this year will be spent absolutely babying Tillman's arm.

My predictions, then, are binary:

-If the Orioles care more about advancing Tillman to the majors than about developing a signature talent, he'll do fine in the majors but suffer major arm surgery in the next 2-3 years; or

-If the Orioles keep him in the minors all year, on strict pitch counts, he has as good a shot as anyone at being a top-flight starter in MLB.

Yeah I agree we should start Matusz in AA. He looked pretty freaking awesome in AFL considering that it's a hitter's league. He looked even better if you factor in the fact that it was the first time he was pitching against real competition.

I see either David Hernandez or Brad Bergensen starting off the year on the major league roster. I'm not sure which of the two will make it, but I'm fairly certain one of the two will. I'd personally go with Bergensen because he doesn't walk people and the walks are driving me insane.

Hi Pete:

I have an idea, The Orioles and the Nationals should have a special series at the end of the season to see which team is the worst in baseball. I think it would add a little competition for two teams that are and will continue to be long time losers.

I have not seem anything that resembles a true major league team in Baltimore for several years. If the Os trade Roberts, Huff, Mora, Sherill as most are now advocating, we should could go to see Bowie or other minor league teams for less money.

I do agree, with the writer who wrote the truth. The O's will never be able to ink the good players after they are eligible for free agency. That is a tradition here and the more the O's lose the less anyone wishing to play on a winner will stay. It is not the money anymore it is the new O's losing culture. Andy is familiar with this tradition with the Cubs, but O hope Os fans have more sense.

I predict Tillman hurts his shoulder half way through 2009 and has to spend all of 2010 rehabbing. In 2011 he gets a spring training invite, but has to spend most of the year getting his command back at AA and AAA. Then goes 5-2 for the Os as they finish in last place for the fourth straight year.

Tillman is billed as the key in the Orioles run at .500 in 2012 as they stick to their 100-year-plan-to-reach-respectability.

As a side note Nick Markakis was signed by Boston for the 2012 season and Matt Weiters announced that he "loves playing in Baltimore", but wouldn't be signing an extension.

Start him at AA, then call him up in September. Give Bergensen and Hernandez the shot to make opening game roster.

Chris Tillman will be a right handed Adam Lowen, exact stats, see Adam Lowen.

He should start at Bowie and get his mechanics down and experience success. Having spent most of a season in the Eastern league he may not need 1/2 a season before moving but lets keep succes moving to build his confidence.

Based on the hideous Starting Pitching signings by the O's to date, we will be deep into our minors by 1 July! We need to sign 3 seriously proven starters like Sheets, Garland and Perez and quit signing washouts like Hendrickson and our 34 year old over the hill Japanese pitcher. We need inning eaters and neither of these two will average 5 innings per start. Lets not kill the pen again this year!

If you want to be safe with Tillman you will start him at Bowie, let him get a few games in to get going. He will excel more though at AAA. I had the experience of seeing him play in Appleton and he has grown so much since that time. He’s the kind of guy that can adapt to anything. Some say he’s and injury risk and will spend 09 rehabbing but who isn’t an injury risk? Seriously. If he can stay healthy and stay at AAA he will be the key to the O’s pitching in the upcoming years.

I think when you have pitchers as talented as Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz, you set the bar high. I say you give the starting spots to the top 5 pitchers in spring training. I agree with the other writer who said that "being brought up too early ruins pitchers" is a bunch of crap. Yeah it may have ruined Edwin Jackson, but look at Clayton Kershaw, look at Tim Lincecum.

Brian Matusz is Lincecum lite. I say give both guys a shot, and make them prove that they don't belong at the major league level, not the other way around.

If management shows how much they believe in them, perhaps they will believe in themselves. Set the bar high, but let them know that they expect them to struggle, and that they aren't expecting them to all win 15 games this year.